The Daily Briefing: Is A Ceasefire Imminent?

by Geoff Garbacz | 02/25/2022 8:49 AM

Rebel Yell Morning Market Report

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The Daily Briefing: Is A Ceasefire Imminent?

Overnight Summary:  The S&P 500 closed at 4288.70 yesterday. This morning it is trading at 4260 and has been trading lower all night. The low was 4228 at 3:40 a.m. EST.  Asia was higher ex Hong Kong. Europe is rebounding today up 1% to 2%.

Breaking News: CNBC reports that Russia willing to send delegation to Minsk for talks. (Interfax)

Earnings Out After The Close:

  • Beats: VIR +2.36, COIN +1.07, CYTK +0.48, TMST +0.47, MDRX +0.47, SM +0.38, OXY +0.38, CWK +0.31, AXON +0.29, MMSI +0.20, ICUI +0.18, CHE +0.17, UNVR +0.15, UPLD +0.15, EVBG +0.14, ETSY +0.13, CARG +0.13, ALRM +0.11, EIX +0.11, ALTR +0.10, EVTC +0.10, OPRT +0.10, UHS +0.08, EBS +0.08, SGMO +0.08, MTZ +0.07, RHP +0.07, LSI +0.07, ADSK +0.06, LPRO +0.06, COLD +0.06, SEM +0.06, NVTA +0.06, TPC +0.06, VMW +0.05, AMWL +0.05, SQ +0.05, FTCH +0.05, ADUS +0.05, CDXS +0.04, WSC +0.03, BOOM +0.03, OII +0.03, SWN +0.03, PRDO +0.03, VTEX +0.02, VVNT +0.02, MP +0.02, SFM +0.02, AES +0.02, HURN +0.02, GLPI +0.02, ZS +0.02, AXNX +0.02, CUBE +0.02, LAW +0.01, ABCL +0.01, FOXF +0.01.
  • Flat: AMH +0.00, ENV +0.00.
  • Misses: CYRX (5.37), CABO (1.42), COLL (1.08), TPIC (1.07), PBA (0.61), BYND (0.59), CODI (0.38), MAX (0.36), INGN (0.30), VICR (0.30), KWR (0.29), INTU (0.27), CVET (0.26), LPSN (0.24), DELL (0.23), CVNA (0.20), YMAB (0.16), FTAI (0.16), NTRA (0.16), PING (0.14), OPEN (0.13), NPTN (0.12), TVTX (0.11), FTDR (0.10), OPK (0.09), SILK (0.09), EOG (0.08), TVTY (0.08), VAPO (0.08), IOVA (0.07), CDNA (0.06), VG (0.05), RKT (0.05), GDOT (0.04), LMAT (0.03), ATSG (0.02), PLYA (0.02), VXRT (0.01), VRAY (0.01), FND (0.01), MNST (0.01), ICFI (0.01), CLNE (0.01), SWCH (0.01), TRHC (0.01).

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News:
    • 5.11 Initial Public Offering Update: The company has decided to postpone its proposed initial public offering of 5.11 due to adverse market conditions.
  • New SPACs launched/News:
    • Delwinds Insurance Acquisition Corp. (DWIN) confirms merger agreement with FOXO Technologies.
    • Supernova Partners Acquisition Company II, Ltd. (SNII) expected to close business combination with Rigetti on March 2, 2022.
  • Secondaries Priced:
    • BXRX: Pricing of $10.0 Million Public Offering Priced @$2.85.. Wainwright bookmanager.
  • Notes Priced of note:  Peabody (BTU) Prices $275 Million Convertible Senior Notes Offering.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes: None of note.
  • Pricing of Over-Allotment: None of note.
  • Direct Offering:
    • APDN: Closing of $4.2 Million Registered Direct Offering.
    • CSCW: Closes $10.0 Million Registered Direct Offering.
  • Selling Shareholders of note: None of note.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • FOLD: Filed Form S-3ASR.. Mixed Security Shelf.
    • MNKD: Filed Form S-3ASR.. Mixed Security Shelf.
    • OUT: Filed Form S-3ASR.. Mixed Security Shelf.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed:
    •  

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: KAR 76%, FTCH 31%, SQ 23%, ETSY 19%, CARG 16%, PLTK 16%, LPRO 14%, TMST 9%, UHS 7%, VAPO 6%, INGN 6%, CDXS 6%, SGMO 5%, SILK 5%, ABCL 4%.
    • Trading Down: LPSN -25%, EVBG -24%, ZS -16%, TPIC -16%, OPK -14%, VICR -14%, COLL -13%, FTDR -12%, DELL -11%, BYND -11%, OPEN -9%, TPC -6%, VMW -6%, GSAT -6%, CYTK -6%, AMWL -5%, VRAY -5%, COIN -5%, INTU -5%, SWCH -5%, NVTA -5%, VXRT -5%, SM -4%, PRDO -4%.
  • News After The Close:
    • Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: BYND, COIN, ETSY, CVNA, KAR (CNBC)
    • United States Student-Loan Forbearance Saved Borrowers $37.8 billion (Bloomberg)
    • Carvana (CVNA) posts wider Q4 loss, says that rising used-car prices dent business (MarketWatch)
    • CDC to significantly ease pandemic mask guidelines Friday (CNBC)
    • U.S. Congress to provide $600 mln for new Ukraine weapons -House Speaker Pelosi – Reuters.
    • Coinbase (COIN) Profit Surges During Bitcoin’s Wild Rally and Selloff (WSJ)
    • Dell (DELL) sees shortages of integrated circuits continue.
    • Monster Beverage (MNST) having problems meeting demand due to supply chain issues.
    • Morgan Stanley (MS) discloses update on block trading matter: “Beginning in June of 2019, the Firm has been responding to requests for information from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission in connection with an investigation of various aspects of the Firm’s block trading business. Beginning in August of 2021, the Firm has been responding to requests for information from the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the SDNY in connection with its investigation of the same subject matter. The Firm is cooperating with these investigations.” (10k Report)
    • U.S. Silica (SLCA) will increase prices on a portion of its industrial and specialty products businesses.
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Bridge Investment Group (BRDG) announces that CFO Chad Briggs will retire effective May 31, 2022.
    • Ceridian HCM (CDAY) appoints Chris Armstrong as COO.
    • Centene (CNC) medical leave of absence for Chairman and CEO Michael Neidorff.
    • The Home Depot (HD) Names Paula Santilli and Caryn Seidman-Becker to its Board of Directors.
    • Keysight Technologies (KEYS) Announces CEO Succession.
    • Li Auto (LI) Chief Technology Officer, Mr. Kai Wang, resigns for personal reasons.
    • NewAge, Inc. (NBEV) Announces Receipt of Nasdaq Notification Regarding Minimum Bid Price Deficiency.
    • Professional Holding Corp (PFHD) elects Abel Iglesias as CEO of the company and bank, effective immediately.
    • Ryman Hospitality (RHP) appointed Michael Roth and Mark Fioravanti to the Board for an expanded membership of 10.
    • Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM) announces that Nicholas Konat has been appointed as President and COO of the company, effective March 21, 2022.
    • View (VIEW) promotes Amy Reeves to CFO.
  • Buyback Announcements:
    • Allison Transmission (ALSN) Announces a $1 Billion Increase to the Stock Repurchase Authorization.
    • AMD (AMD) Announces New $8 Billion Share Repurchase Authorization.
    • Cato (CATO) authorizes 1.0 million share increase to share repurchase program.
    • Americold Realty Trust (COLD) announces that its Board of Trustees has appointed George F. Chappelle Jr. as CEO.
    • Carter’s (CRI) authorizes new $1.0 billion share repurchase plan.
    • Dillard’s (DDS) approved a new share repurchase program authorizing up to $500 million of its Class A Common Stock.
    • EVERTEC (EVTC) increases repurchase authorization for up to $150 million.
    • Green Dot (GDOT) to buyback 100 million in common stock.
    • ArcelorMittal (MT) announces that its Significant Shareholder has decided not to further participate in its $1 billion share buyback program.
    • Occidental (OXY) To Buy Back $3 billion Of Shares.
    • Universal Health Services, Inc. (UNH) announces $1.4 billion increase to stock repurchase program.
    • Vistra (VST) share repurchases of 7% of stock. 
    • WesBanco, Inc. (WSBC) Announces Approval of a New Stock Repurchase Program up to an additional 3.2 million shares.
    • Foot Locker (FL) announces a new $1.2 billion share repurchase program.
    • Under Armour (UA) announces a $300 million accelerated share repurchase agreements.
    • Amgen (AMGN) announces up to a $6 billion accelerated share repurchase agreement.
  • Stock Splits:
    • Pulmatrix, Inc. (PULM) Announces 1-for-20 Reverse Stock Split.
  • Dividends Announcements:
    • Albemarle (ALB) increases quarterly dividend by $0.005 to $0.395 per share.
    • Allison Transmission (ALSN) Announces an 11 Percent Increase to the Quarterly Dividend to $0.21.
    • Carter’s (CRI) declares 25% increase in quarterly dividend to $0.75.
    • Cohen & Steers (CNS) increases quarterly cash dividend $0.10 to $0.55 per share.
    • Crown (CCK) increases quarterly cash dividend by $0.02 to $0.22 per share.
    • Dell (DELL) initial quarterly dividend of $0.33 per share and dividends for 2023 of around $1 billion.
    • Essex Property (ESS) increases quarterly dividend by $0.11 to $2.20 per share.
    • Footlocker (FL) increases quarterly dividend by 33%.
    • Gaming and Leisure Properties (GLPI) increases quarterly dividend to $0.69 per share.
    • Gap Inc. (GPS) Announces Plan to Increase Dividend by 25 Percent to $0.15.
    • Lamar Advertising (LAMR) increases quarterly cash dividend $0.10 to $1.10 per share.
    • National Storage Affiliates (NSA) increases quarterly dividend by $0.05 to $0.50 per share.
    • JOANN (JOAN) Announces 10% dividend increase to $0.11 per share.
    • Occidental Petro (OXY) increases quarterly dividend to $0.13 per share.
    • Prologis (PLD) increases quarterly dividend by $0.16 to $0.79 per share.
    • Switch (SWCH) has declared a cash dividend of $0.0525 per share.
    • Vistra (VST) announced first quarter 2022 dividend – a ~13% increase year-over-year.
    • WesBanco (WSBC) increases quarterly cash dividend by $0.01 to $0.34 per share.

What’s Happening This MorningFutures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 , Dow Jones NASDAQ ,  and Russell 2000 .  Asia higher ex Hong Kong  and Europe higher. VIX Futures are at 29.15 from 33.26 yesterday morning. Gold and Silver lower with Copper higher. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures higher. Natural Gas is lower. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs Pound and lower vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury with yields at 1.998% from 1.86%  yesterday.  Bitcoin is at $38,872.06 from $35,109  at 1.13%. As of 8:00 a.m. EST

Thursday’s CRAZZZZZZY Action – 02/24/22 Close:  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical, Real Estate of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Consumer Defensive, Basic Materials, Financials, Energy of note.
  • One Month Winners: Energy and Basic Materials of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Energy, Consumer Defensive and Basic Materials of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Energy of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy, Consumer Defensive, and Financials of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Energy of note.

A turnaround for the ages!  NASDAQ was down 3.45% only to finish on the day up 3.34%.  The turnaround was driven by large cap tech stocks.  Updated 02/24/22 close.

 

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Friday After the Close: PNM of note.
  • Monday Before the Open: VTRS, JLL, XRAY, NLSN, TGNA, WHD, CWEN, ITRI, HNI, DEA, HSKA, ASTE, RETA, RIDE of note.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: .
  • Flat: .
  • Misses: .
  • Still to Report: .

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: PRFT, TNC, AXNX, AXOM, INTU, OPEN, ZS, NTRA, FOXF, CARG, FND, LSI, COLD, SFM, NVTA, UHS, TVTY, LAW, CDXS, BOOM, HURN, VAPO, AGO, ATSG, MMSI, DELL, LAMR, IMGN .
  • Negative Guidance: SDGR, ADSK, WSC, ETSY, ALTR, MDRX, ICUI, SWCH, EVTC, EBS, CHE, GDOT, SILK, LPSN, LMAT, TPC, PRDO, MAX, CYTK, AMWL, VMW, MTZ, LI, FL.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart: Updated through 02/24/22 close.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: KAR +64%, FTCH +28%, ETSY +17%, SQ +14%, LPRO +14%, PLTK +12%, CARG +9%, PSO +9%, VAPO +8%, SILK +7%, OEC +7%, CDXS +7%, ABCL +6%, BTU +6%, INGN +6%, OR +6%, SWCH +5%, SGMO +5%, SVM +4%.
  • Gap Down: LPSN -32%, EVBG -29%, ZS -13%, TPIC -13%, FTDR -11%, FTAI -11%, OPK -10%, VICR -9%, DELL -9%, BYND -8%, OPEN -7%, GSAT -7%, GOGO -6%, COLL -6%, TPC -6%, CYTK -5%, VRAY -5%, VLRS -5%, VXRT -5%, NVTA -4%, LMAT -4%.

Insider ActionSNV, TELA, AYX, RSG sees Insider buying with dumb short selling. No stock sees Insider buying with smart short sellers. 02/24/22 close.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”.

  • Stocks Making The Biggest Moves: . (CNBC)
  • 5 Things To Know To Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • Covid cases at 77,458 cases from 109,422 with hospitalizations at 53,987 from 80,185. (CDC).
  • China announces it supports Russia using negotiations to resolve conflict. (CNBC)
  • Russia is closing in on Kyiv as it hits the city with missile strikes. (NYT)
  • U.S. fears that Kyiv could fall to Russian forces “soon”. (The Washington Post)
  • Republicans want stronger sanctions against Russia. (CNN)
  • President Biden to announce next Supreme Court pick on Monday. (Bloomberg)
  • Russia closes airspace to plans from U.K. (Reuters)
  • Russia was stripped of hosting the Champions League Final as moved to Paris. Formula One drops Russian Grand Prix at Sochi. (AP)
  • Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) confirms enough participation to move ahead on opiod related claims and litigation.
  • Robinhood Snacks looks at cybersecurity stocks rally as risks of cyberwar risks rise. Then looks at diversity in the boardroom.

Moving Average Update:

  • Score shows small sign of life at 6%.  Updated 02/24/22 close.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President meets with fellow NATO Heads of State and Government in an extraordinary virtual summit to discuss the security situation in and around Ukraine, 9:00 a.m. EST
    • The President receives the President’s Daily Brief, 11:30 a.m. EST
    • Press Briefing by Press Secretary Jen Psaki, 2:00 p.m. EST

Economic: 

  • January Personal Income is due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and is expected to fall to -0.3% from 0.3%.
  • January PCE Core is due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and came in last month at 0.5%.
  • January Durable Orders came in last month at -0.9% and is expected to improve to 0.6%,
  • January Pending Home Sales came in last month at -3.8% and there is no estimate currently.
  • February University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (final) is due out at 10:00 a.m. EST is expected to fall to 61.5 from 61.70.
  • Baker Hughes Rig Count 1:00 p.m. EST
  • The latest NYSE and NASDAQ Short Interest Data is due out after the close of trading. During the collection period of January 27th through February 11th , the S&P 500 rose 2.13%.

Federal Reserve Speakers:

  • None of note.

M&A Activity:

  • Kimberly-Clark (KMB) completes acquisition of a majority stake in Thinx.
  • NortonLifeLock (NLOK) Receives Antitrust Clearance in Spain for Merger with Avast plc.
  • Vonage (VG) entered into agreement with Ericsson (ERIC) to be acquired for $21 per share.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Bank of America Animal Health Summit
    • RBC Capital Markets Global Environmental 
    • BMO Capital Markets 31st Global Metals & Mining Conference 2022 (02/27/22-03/02/22)
    • Credit Suisse 27th Annual Energy Summit 2022 (02/27/22-03/02/22)
      • Previously Announced  Conferences:
        • Capital Link Jones Act & U.S. Flag Shipping Forum 2022 (02/24/22-02/25/22)
        • Aegis Virtual Conference 2022 (02/23/22-02/25/22)
        • Goldman Sachs European Digital Economy, Technology & Internet Conference 2022 (02/22/22-02/25/22)
  • Company Meetings: KAR, MNTV, OGEN, WIT.
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: BIO, DV, UNM.
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event: None of note.
  • Industry Meetings:
    • American Academy of Allergy, Asthma, and Immunology (02/25/22-02/28/22)
    • International Franchise Association’s 2022 (02/25/22-03/01/22)
    • SNMMI Mid-Winter Meeting 2022 (02/25/22-02/27/22)
      • Previously Posted and Ongoing Conferences:
        • Multidisciplinary Head And Neck Cancers Symposium 2022  (02/24/22-02/26/22)
        • American College of Foot and Ankle Surgeons ACFAS Annual Scientific Conference 2022  (02/24/22-02/27/22)
        • Americas Committee for Treatment and Research in Multiple Sclerosis (ACTRIMS) Forum 2022 (02/24/22-02/26/22)
        • Congress of Neurological Surgeons Spine Summit 2022 (02/23/22-02/26/22)
        • Consumer Analyst Group of New York Conference (CAGNY) 2022 (02/22/22-02/25/22)

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

       

Thursday’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

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