The Daily Briefing For September 25th: Overnight Futures Crumble By 43 Points Into 8:00 a.m. EDT, Now Down -12 S&P

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Friday lower by -0.23% at 4320.06 from Thursday lower by -1.64% at 4330. The overnight high was hit at 4379.50 at 3:40 a.m. EDT while the low was hit at 4347.25 at 4:50 a.m. EDT. The range overnight was 32 points. The 10-day average of the overnight range is at 19.20 down from a peak of 31.50 on 8/15.  The average for May-August average was 21.10 from 18.81 in May through July and the August average was 26.21. Currently, the S&P 500 is lower by -0.50 points which is -0.01% at  7:15 a.m. EDT.

Earnings Out After The Close: 

• Beats: None of note.
• Flat: None of note.
• Misses: None of note.

Unusual Options Activity:

Daily Screen in Erlanger Chartroom that highlights unusual Call and Put Options activity in the S&P 500.  It looks for volume outliers relative to the Open interest in Calls or puts.  Usually, the stock price activity reflects the outlier situation (earnings/buyout/announcement), but once in a while, you can uncover stocks prior to a pop or drop.

Capital Raises:

• IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
• New SPACs launched/News: None of note.
• Secondaries Priced: None of note.
• Notes Priced of note:
  • FWRD: Announces Pricing of Private Offering of $725 Million of Senior Secured Notes.
  • NCR: Announce Upsize and Pricing of Senior Secured Notes Offering.
  • NOVA: Announces Pricing of Offering of $400 Million “Green Bond”.
• Common Stock filings/Notes:
  • CLNN: Filed Form S-3.. Up to 3,000,000 Shares of Common Stock.
  • ELIQ: Filed Form S-1.. 46,888,151 Shares of Class A Common Stock 3,000,000 Warrants.
  • HOLO: Filed Form F-3.. Up to $100,000,000 o Ordinary Shares, Preferred Shares, Debt Securities, Warrants, Rights and Units and Up to 2,875,000 Ordinary Shares underlying previously-issued Warrants MicroCloud Hologram Inc.
  • HRZN: Form 8-K – Prospectus supplement issue and sell up to $150,000,000 worth of its common stock.
  • LLAP: Announces Closing of $32.5 Million Public Offering.
  • PMN: Filed Form S-3.. 22,128,408 Common Shares.
• Direct Offering: None of note.
• Selling Shareholders of note: None of note.
• Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
• Mixed Shelf Offerings:
  • BWEN: Filed Form S-3.. $75 Million Mixed Shelf.
  • IPW: Filed Form S-3.. $50 Million Mixed Shelf.
  • MTB: Filed Form S-3ASR .. Mixed Shelf Offering.
• Debt/Credit Filing and Notes:
  • GFL: Successfully Reprices its Senior Secured Term Loan.
• Tender Offer: None of note.
• Convertible Offering & Notes Filed:
  • FLR: Announces Full Mandatory Conversion of Series A 6.50% Cumulative Perpetual Convertible Preferred Stock.
  • NIO: Announces Closing of US$1 Billion Convertible Senior Notes Offering.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close and Over the Week:

• Weekly Wrap Up: Best and Worst performing large cap stocks:
  • Trading Up: SIEN 28.4%, SCS 24.9%, MRTX 23.9%, SPLK 20.0%, ATRA 16.3%, MTRX 15.2%, DHT 11.1%, IRWD 11.0%, CNDT 10.3%, FRO 10.2%, EURN 9.8%, NR 9.1%, SQQQ 8.5%, KNOP 8.3%, LPG 7.7%, BCRX 7.5%, AAN 7.2%, CLAR 7.1%, EHTH 6.8%.
  • Trading Down: CGC -38.5%, CAMP -31.7%, ESPR -31.0%, CARA -28.9%, VAPO -27.4%, ACB -23.4%, LXRX -23.2%, SGMO -22.8%, RVNC -22.7%, FTCH -21.2%, TCMD -21.1%, CBD -20.5%, TWOU -20.4%, CDXS -19.9%, GTHX -19.8%, CVNA -19.6%, POL -19.6%, EBIX -19.1%, CHEF -18.8%.

• News Items After the Close:
  • Rite Aide (RAD) could close up to 500 stores as part of bankruptcy. (WSJ)
  • General Motors (GM) inching modestly higher after asking for volunteers among its salaried, non-union employees, to work at its parts distribution centers in the event of a strike. (Detroit Free Press)
  • Dow slides 100 points on Friday, S&P 500 and Nasdaq post worst weeks since March after Fed update: Live updates. (CNBC)
  • Fluor (FLR) subsidiary awarded $1.36 billion U.S. Navy contract modification.
  • Raytheon (RTX) subsidiary Collins awarded a $280 Million Navy contract.
  • Valneva (VALN) gets new $32 million supply contract for the U.S. government.
• News Items Over the Weekend:
  • The Score – Stocks That Defined the Week: MRNA, CART, DIS, FDX, SPLK, FOX (WSJ)
  • Hollywood Studios and Writers Guild of America reach a tentative three-year deal. (LATimes)
  • Oil at $100 Is Too High, Even for Energy Companies. (WSJ)
  • The IPO Market Is Open Again! At Least for the Moment. (WSJ)
  • Barron’s:
    • Positive View: of note.
    • Cautious View: None of note.
    • Mixed View: None of note.
• Erlanger Type 1 Short Squeezes and Type 4 Long Squeezes reporting earnings this week:

• Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
  • Aeva Technologies, Inc. (AEVA) Receives Notice Regarding NYSE Continued Listing Standards.
  • AutoNation (AN) Hires Jeff Parent as Chief Operating Officer.
  • Bird (BRDS) Announces Suspended NYSE Trading, Will Begin Trading on the OTC Exchange Effective September 25, 2023.
  • Connexa Sports Technologies Inc. (CNXA) Announces Receipt of Notice from Nasdaq Regarding Late Filing of Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q.
  • Electra (ELBM) Receives NASDAQ Notice on Minimum Price Deficiency.
  • Galmed Pharmaceuticals (GLMD) Announces Receipt of Nasdaq Minimum Bid Price Notification.
  • InMed Pharmaceuticals (INM) Receives Nasdaq Notification Regarding Minimum Bid Price Compliance.
  • Invitae (NVTA) Receives Notice of Non-Compliance with NYSE Minimum Share Price Continued Listing Standard.
  • Matinas BioPharma (MTNB) Announces Notification of NYSE American Continued Listing Deficiency.
  • NFT Ltd. (MI) Announces Receipt Of Nyse American Continued Listing Standard Noncompliance Notice.
  • RedHill Biopharma (RDHL) Announces Receipt of Nasdaq Notification Regarding Minimum Bid Price Deficiency
  • Standard Lithium (SLI) Strengthens C-Suite: Salah Gamoudi Appointed CFO, Kara Norman Steps Into New Role as CAO.
  • Vicarious Surgical (RBOT) Receives Continued Listing Standard Notice From NYSE.
  • Veradigm Inc. (MDRX) Announces Receipt of Nasdaq Delisting Notice and Intent to Appeal.
  • ZENVIA (ZENV) Regains Compliance with Nasdaq.
• Buyback Announcements or News:
  • CRH Continues Share Buyback Program.
• Stock Splits or News:
  • CNXA trading reverse split price.
  • Vaccinex, Inc. (VCNX) Announces Reverse Stock Split.
• Dividends Announcements or News:
  • IdaCorp (IDA) increases its quarterly dividend by 5.1% to $0.83 per share.
• Insider Sales Of Note:

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 – , Dow Jones – ,  NASDAQ – , and Russell 2000 – .  (as of 7:53 a.m. EDT).  Asia is higher ex South Korea while Europe is lower this morning. VIX Futures are at 17.75 from 17.41 yesterday.  Gold, Silver and Copper are lower this morning. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Crude Oil are higher with Natural Gas lower. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 4.491% from 4.484% Friday. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher versus the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $26,048 from $26,611 Friday, lower by -1.61%.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

• Daily Positive Sectors: Energy, Technology of note.
• Daily Negative Sectors: Real Estate, Financial, Consumer Defensive, Consumer Cyclical, Industrials of note.
• One Month Winners: Energy, Financial, Communication Services, and Consumer Cyclical  of note.
• Three Month Winners: Energy, Communication Services, and Financial of note.
• Six Month Winners: Communication Services, Energy, Consumer Cyclical of note.
• Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, and Energy Industrial of note.
• Year to Date Winners:  Communication Services, Technology, Consumer Cyclical of note.

U.S. stock indexes edged lower Friday to end an ugly week after the Federal Reserve signaled it may not be done hiking rates.   The S&P 500 fell 0.2% Friday and closed down 2.9% for the week, its worst performance since March and third straight weekly loss. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.1% Friday, and logged its third consecutive week of losses, with tech shares bearing the brunt of the recent selloff. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was 0.3% lower Friday.  Treasury yields edged lower after closing at a 15-year high on Thursday. The yield on the 10-year bond fell to 4.438%, from 4.479% Thursday.  (WSJ – edited by QPI)

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

• Monday After the Close:

• Tuesday Before the Open:

Earnings of Note This Morning:

• Beats: None of note.
• Flat: None of note.
• Misses: None of note.
• Still to Report: None of note.

Guidance:

• Positive Guidance: None of note.
• Negative Guidance: None of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

• Gap Up: ARDX +8% of note.
• Gap Down: None of note.

Insider Action: H sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  No stock sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

• 5 Things to Know Before the Stock Market Opens. (CNBC)
• 5 Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg) 
• Bloomberg Lead Story: Hollywood Screenwriters Reach A Tentative Deal to End Strike. (Bloomberg)
• Bloomberg Most Shared Story: Private Equities Slow Carnage Unleashes a Wave of Zombies. (Bloomberg)
• Stocks fall as German yields reach 2011 high: Market Wrap. (Bloomberg)
• China developers drop most in 9 months on Evergrande woes. (Bloomberg)
• Canadian Auto Workers ratify a contract with Ford (F). (Reuters)
• Costco (COST) offers $29 online healthcare visits. (Bloomberg)
• Amazon (AMZN) to invest up to $4 billion in AI rival to Chat GPT, Anthropic. (CNBC)
• NPR Morning Report Marketplace: How countries around the world shape their data policy. (Podcast)
• BBC Global News: 3 dead in Kosovo monastery standoff.  (Podcast) 
• Bloomberg: Big Take News Wrap from last week: UN General Assembly, US Iran Prisoner Exchange and UAW Strike. (Podcast)
• Wealthion:  There’s a huge difference between stocks and bonds. (Podcast)

Moving Average Update:

• Score remains at 14%.

Geopolitical: 

• President’s Public Schedule:
  • The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing, 9:00 a.m. EDT
  • The President hosts a meeting with Pacific Islands Forum leaders for the U.S.-Pacific Islands Forum Summit, 10:30 a.m. EDT
  • The President participates in a family photo with Pacific Islands Forum leaders, 11:40 a.m. EDT
  • Press Briefing by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, 1:30 p.m. EDT
  • The President hosts a meeting with the President’s Board of Advisors on Historically Black Colleges and Universities; The Vice President participates, 3:00 p.m. EDT

Economic:

• Chicago Fed Activity Index 8:30 a.m. EDT
• Dallas Fed Mfg Survey 10:30 a.m. EDT

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:

• Federal Reserve Chicago President Austan Goolsbee on CNBC at 8:30 a.m. EDT
• Federal Reserve Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari 6:00 p.m. EDT

M&A Activity and News: 

• Enovis (ENOV) to Acquire LimaCorporate S.p.A.
• Regal Rexnord (RRX) divests its Industrial Motors & Generators businesses To WEG for $400 million.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

• Sellside Conferences:
  • Morgan Stanley Telecoms CTO Symposium
    • Previously posted and ongoing conferences: None of note.
• Top Shareholder Meetings: CGC, GFOR, LOCC
• Fireside Chat: None of note.
• Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: ADDYY, BNGO, CRH, DAL, RBT
• Update: None of note.
• R&D Day: None of note.
• Company Event: None of note.
• Industry Meetings:
  • InfoSec World 2023 (09/25/23-09/27/23)
  • Future of Mining Americas Denver (09/25/23-09/26/23)
  • National Clean Energy Week (CRES) 2023 (09/25/23-09/29/23)
  • 17th International Symposium on IgA Nephropathy (IIgANN) 2023 (09/25/23-09/27/23)
  • 65th Center for the Polyurethanes Industry’s CPI Technical Conference (09/25/23-09/27/23)
    • Previously posted and ongoing conferences: None of note.

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: