Rebel Yell Morning Market Report

Your Daily Financial Market Briefing - Giving You An Investing Edge Before Each Trading Day Begins

The Daily Briefing For September 11th, A Day To Remember


What is the downside on Apple (AAPL) if the tariff proposals become reality? The best way to understand the downside is to run a retracement on Apple. The way to track a retracement is to track from a low to a high.

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In this case, we use the low of February low to the recent high. Then we look at a pullback of 382%, 50% and 61.80% which are the Fibonacci retracement levels.

At a minimum, one should expect a pullback to $199.33 the 38.2% retracement. This would be a good level to enter the stock.


Tomorrow and Thursday we get PPI and CPI. PPI is the Producer Price Index which is what producers pay for inputs into their products. CPI is the Consumer Price Index which is what consumers pay for products.

There is been little evidence that inflation is on the rise. Hence the struggle for goal. If and it is a big if we finally start to see inflation pick up, then gold could end its downtrend and bonds begin to roll over.


In After Hours Trading

IPOs 5 on deck this week. Secondaries of note .

Filings after close .

data courtesy of IPO Financial

In After Hours Trading: SURPRISES CASY +.23. FLAT: MISSED: MATX -.04 SONS -.30.

Lower Guidance: .

Mixed Guidance: .

Positive Guidance: .

What's Happening This Morning

U.S. futures: S&P -8, Dow Jones -118, NDX -22 and Russell 2000 -4.50 with fair values lower reducing losses. Asia higher and Europe lower.

Gold flat with silver and copper lower. WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures higher. Natural Gas is lower. $ is higher vs Euro, higher vs. Pound and higher vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury price 119.53 with yields higher since last Friday. Prices as of 7:05 a.m. EDT.

Top Sectors Conglomerates and Technology.

Weak Sectors Materials.

One month winners Healthcare,Consumer Goods, Services and Technology.

Three Month Winners Healthcare, Consumer Goods, Services and Technology.

Six Month Winners Conglomerates, Services and Technology.

One Year Winners All except for Utilities.

Year To Date Conglomerates, Healthcare and Services.

Earnings Expected

Earnings due after the close (by avg. trade volume): FARM.

Earnings due Wednesday morning: none of note.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

Hedge fund manager Ray Dalio says economy is in the 7th inning of the current cycle. (CNBC)

Mandatory evacuations for millions in the Carolina. (AP)

Former Tesla (TSLA) bull at Nomura says company no longer investible thanks to Elon Musk's behavior. (Bloomberg)

The rise and fall of CBS CEO & Chairman Leslie Moonves. (NYT)

U.S. and allies may strike Syria. (WSJ)

CNN and major networks/cable to cover 9/11 observances.

Reported Earnings This Morning

Reported This Morning: SURPRISES . FLAT: MISSED: FRAN -.03

Missing: .

Lower Guidance: .

Current Morning missing: .

Mixed Guidance: GIII.

Positive Guidance: NAV.

Data Points

Yesterday saw 1754 stocks rise and 1107 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 1577 rise and 1418 fall.

The SP 500 is above its 50 day exponential moving average and is above its 200 day exponential moving average. The Russell 2000 is above its 50 day moving exponential average and is above 200 day exponential moving average.

The 10 day spread moving average of breadth is now a buy. The Madison Market Timing Indicator is still invested.

YTD 55% of stocks are higher and 45% are lower. Updated 8/31/18 close.


NFIB Small Business Optimism Index came in at 108.80 from 107.9 this morning.

JOLTS Job Openings are due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and last month came in at 6.62 million.

Conference & Analyst Meetings

Meetings, Conference Calls or Announcements of note, ALNY KMT HPQ DOV NXPI PNW .

Morgan Stanley Healthcare Conference.

Credit Suisse Global Steel and Mining Conference.

Raymond James North American Equities Conference.

Conference of Note

The Annual ECIM International E&P Data and Information Management Conference and User Meeting.

Gartner Security & Risk Conference.

M & A News

Key Upgrades and Downgrades

JP Morgan  
Morgan Stanley  
Deutsche Bank  
Citigroup CC Merrill Lynchp  
Merrill LynchRUN PAGP   
Wachovia/Wells Fargo  
Credit Suisse  
Banc of America  
William Blair  
Raymond James  
Piper Jaffray  
Moffet Nathanson  
Robert W. Baird  
Sun Trust RHEXC  


Tomorrow Apple (AAPL) will announce its new product line for the upcoming fall and holiday season. But more important is the latest threats from President Trump on a new round of tariffs that will impact Apple and its suppliers.

President Trump has a simple yet flawed answer to the tariffs. Build manufacturing facilities in the U.S. Easier said than done. Understand this though, if Apple so to will the major indexes as it is a big weighting.


Today is 9/11. Spend a few minutes watching the ceremonies on the networks. This is an important part of our history. As a New Yorker during the event, it impacted me greatly. It is something I will never forget.

Out of the ashes though, we have prevailed but it has been a struggle. God bless America as we remember when we saw the best of America.


Today's video is of hedge fund manager Ray Dalio  who was interviewed by CNBC. He notes that when trouble it appears the issues will be more social and political than economic which is an interesting idea.

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