The Daily Briefing For October 5th: Stocks Modestly Lower Into Open, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims Due Out At 8:30

by Geoff Garbacz | 10/05/2023 8:23 AM

Rebel Yell Morning Market Report

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The Daily Briefing For October 5th: Stocks Modestly Lower Into Open, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims Due Out At 8:30

Overnight SummaryThe S&P 500 closed Wednesday higher by 0.81% at 4263.75 from Tuesday lower by -1.37% at 4229.45. The overnight high was hit at 4301.75 at 11:15 p.m. EDT while the low was hit at 4277.50 at 5:45 a.m. EDT. The range overnight was 23 points as of 7:15 a.m. EDT. The 10-day average of the overnight range is at 28 from 29.30 down from a peak of 31.50 on 8/15.  The average for May-September average was 20.96 from 21.10 in May through August and the September average was 19.87. Currently, the S&P 500 is lower by -9.25 points which is -0.22% at  7:15 a.m. EDT.

Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats: ACCD +0.11, RGP +0.04 of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News: None of note.
  • Secondaries Priced:
    • ALXO: Announces Pricing of Public Offering.
  • Notes Priced of note: None of note.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • ALXO: Proposed Public Offering. (Piper and Cantor bookmanager)
    • GNSS: Announces Closing of $10 Million Public Offering of Common Stock.
    • RMBL: Filed Form S-3 Subscription Rights.
  • Direct Offering:
    • MNTS: Announces Closing of $4.0 Million Registered Direct Offering Priced At-the-Market Under Nasdaq Rules.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • DNTH: Filed Form S-3..5,464,001 Shares Common Stock Offered by the Selling Stockholders.
    • KTOS: Filed Form S-3ASR.. Up to 1,845,064 Shares of Common Stock by selling shareholders.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • BFRI: Filed Form S-1.. Mixed Shelf.
    • KTRA: Filed Form S-1.. Mixed Shelf.
    • MRCY: Filed Form S-3ASR.. Mixed Shelf.
    • PGY: Filed Form F-3 .. $500,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
    • ZIVO: Filed Form S-1.. Mixed Shelf.
  • Debt/Credit Filing and Notes:
    • FBIZ: Completes $15.0 Million Subordinated Debt Offering.
    • RIVN: Propose Green Convertible Senior Notes Offering. (MarketWatch)
  • Tender Offer: None of note.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close and Over the Holiday:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: ALXO +6%, BB +5% of note.
    • Trading Down: MXCT -21%, CMBM -21%, ACCD -7%, RGP -7% of note.
  • News Items After the Close:
    • Ford (F) To Lay Off Addl 400 Workers, Citing Strike.
    • BlackBerry (BB) to separate IoT and Cybersecurity units into two independently-operated entities.
    • COST: Reported net sales of $22.75 billion for the retail month of September, the five weeks ended October 1, 2023, an increase of 6.0 percent from $21.46 billion last year. The five-week period this year included the last week of the 53-week fiscal year 2023 ended September 3, 2023. (MarketWatch)
    • Bird lays off staff after Spin acquisition to reduce redundancies. (TechCrunch)
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Brüush (BRSH) Announces Notice from Nasdaq for Continued Listing.
    • ITT Announces New Board of Directors Appointments. (See Buyback too)
    • LIZHI Inc. (LIZI) Regains Compliance with Nasdaq Minimum Bid Price Requirement.
    • Metropolitan Bank (MCB) CFO of Metropolitan Holding Corp Gregory A. Sigrist intends to resign from his roles at the Company and the Bank.
    • Otter Tail Power (OTTR) announces that CFO Kevin Moug will retire.
    • PHAXIAM Therapeutics (PHXM) regains Nasdaq compliance.
    • Rite Aid (RAD) Announces Receipt of Notice of Non-Compliance with NYSE Continued Listing Standards. (MarketWatch)
    • Semtech (SMTC) announces that Mark Lin has joined the company as Executive Vice President and CFO.
  • Buyback Announcements or News:
    • Hanover Bancorp (HNVR) Approves New Share Repurchase Program.
    • ITT Announces $1 Billion Share Repurchase Authorization.
  • Stock Splits or News:
    • Reverse Splits: AEMD, SXTC
  • Dividends Announcements or News:
    • McDonald’s (MCD) raises dividend by about 10% to $1.67 a share.
  • Insider Sales Of Note: None of note.

What’s Happening This MorningFutures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 -1Dow Jones  -39,  NASDAQ +21, and Russell 2000 +1.  (as of 7:56 a.m. EDT).  Asia is higher ex the Kospi while Europe is higher ex the CAC this morning. VIX Futures are at 19.60 from 17.92 yesterday.  Gold and Silver higher with Copper lower this morning. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Crude Oil are lower with Natural Gas higher. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 4.723% from 4.785% yesterday. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower versus the Pound and lower against the YenBitcoin is at $27,720 from $27,582 yesterday, higher by +0.17%.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical, Technology, Real Estate of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Energy of note.
  • One Month Winners: Energy  of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Energy, Communication Services of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Communication Services, Energy, and Technology of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, and Energy of note.
  • Year to Date Winners:  Communication Services, Technology, Consumer Cyclical of note.

The autumn bond rout eased Wednesday, dragging Treasury yields lower and bringing calm to the stock market after an intense selloff that kicked off the fourth quarter.  The S&P 500 wavered for much of the day before finishing up 0.8%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 127.17 points, or 0.4%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite added around 1.4%, with gains accelerating in the final hour of the trading session.  A sharp selloff in government bonds has sparked turbulence across markets this week, sending the Dow into negative territory for the year and driving losses in everything from tech stocks to real-estate companies. The intense selling in global government bonds continued early Wednesday before easing later in the session, helping steady the stock market.  (WSJ – edited by QPI)

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Thursday After the Close:

  • Friday Before the Open: None of note.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: STZ +0.43, CAG +0.06 of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.
  • Still to Report: LW of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: PXLW, ROAD, AIRS, STZ of note.
  • Negative Guidance: MXCT, CLX, ABBV, CMBM of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: ORTX +95%, VCYT +4%, BB +4% of note.
  • Gap Down: CMBM -28%, MXCT -23%, ACCD -9%, RIVN -9%, RGP -8%, YOU -5%, CLX -4%, HRTG -4%, PGY -4% of note.

Insider ActionCODI, RMAX sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  No stock sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & MagsRepeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: RIVN CLX UWMC Energy stocks lower (CNBC)
  • 5 Things Need To Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • 5 Things to Know Before the Stock Market Opens. (CNBC)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story:  Fed’s bid to Avoid Recession Tested by Yields Nearing 20-Year Highs. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Shared Story: Ozempic is Making People Buy Less Food, Walmart Says. (Bloomberg)
  • Stocks, Bonds waver as rate uncertainty lingers: Market Wrap(Bloomberg)
  • Rep Matt Gaetz (R-FL) says he will support both Reps Steve Scallise and Jim Jordan. (Bloomberg)
  • Increasing interest rates put focus on large budget deficits. (WSJ)
  • Oil extends plunge below $85 on demand worries, weakest seasonal gasoline usage in 25 years. (Bloomberg)
  • Federal Reserve Chicago President Austan Goolsbee sees a puzzle in recent rate spike and notes they may have to adjust. (Bloomberg)
  • NPR Morning Report Marketplace:  California bill could lead the way to diversifying venture capital investments. (Podcast)
  • NY Times The Daily:  The mosquitoes are winning in Africa. (Podcast)
  • BBC Global News:   EU states agree to tackle migration crises. (Podcast
  • Bloomberg:  One reason why buying a house can be so  hard. (Podcast)
  • Wealthion: What the money experts are seeing coming ahead. (Podcast)

Moving Average Update:

  • Score improves from 11% to 22%.


  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President receives a briefing on Ukraine from members of his national security team, 12:00 p.m. EDT
    • Press Briefing by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, 1:00 p.m. EDT


  • Challenger Job Cuts 7:30 a.m. EDT
    • U.S CHALLENGER JOB CUTS (SEP) Actual: 47.457K VS 75.151K Previous.
    • U.S CHALLENGER JOB CUTS (YOY) Actual: 58.2% VS 266.9% Previous.
  • August Trade Balance is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and came in last month at $-65 billion.
  • Initial Jobless Claims 8:30 a.m. EDT

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:  

  • Federal Reserve Cleveland President Loretta Mester 9:00 a.m. EDT
    Federal Reserve San Francisco President Mary Daly 10:00 a.m. EDT
    Federal Reserve Richmond President Thomas Barkin 11:30 a.m. EDT
    Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr 12:15 p.m. EDT

M&A Activity and News: 

  • Kyowa Kirin to Acquire Orchard Therapeutics (ORTX) for $16.00 per ADS plus additional CVR of $1.00/ADS in ~$478M deal. (MarketWatch)
  • SP Plus (SP) to be acquired by Metropolis Technologies for $1.5 billion, or $54 per share.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • BTG’s LatAm CEO Conference
    • Deutsche Bank dbAccess Virtual Copper CEO Conference 2023 (10/05/23-10/06/23)
    • JMP Securities Internet Forum
    • TD Cowen Nuclear Fuel Cycle Roundtable 2023
  • Top Shareholder Meetings: FUV, GOEV, SGBX, ZTEK
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: AMGNCAL, DELL, NBTX,  PANDY
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event:
    • Microsoft (MSFT) 2nd Annual Power Platform Conference 2023 (10/03/23-10/05/23)
  • Industry Meetings:

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

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