The Daily Briefing For October 3rd: Futures Collapse In Last 90 Minutes as Bond Yields Climb

by Geoff Garbacz | 10/03/2023 8:34 AM

Rebel Yell Morning Market Report

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The Daily Briefing For October 3rd: Futures Collapse In Last 90 Minutes as Bond Yields Climb

Overnight SummaryThe S&P 500 closed Monday higher by 0.01% at 4288.39 from Friday lower by -0.27% at 4288.05. The overnight high was hit at 4335.75 at 4:25 a.m. EDT while the low was hit at 4313.75 at 1:10 a.m. EDT. The range overnight was 20 points as of 7:00 a.m. EDT. The 10-day average of the overnight range is at 27.40 from 26.80  down from a peak of 31.50 on 8/15.  The average for May-September average was 20.96 from 21.10 in May through August and the September average was 19.87. Currently, the S&P 500 is lower by -22.50 points which is -0.51% at  8:00 a.m. EDT.

Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats: None of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News:
    • Churchill Capital Corp V (CCV) Will Redeem Its Public Shares and Will Not Consummate an Initial Business Combination.
  • Secondaries Priced:
    • BHVN: prices $225 Million offering. 10.22 Million shares at $22 per share.
  • Notes Priced of note:
    • KIM: Announces Pricing of $500 Million Aggregate Principal Amount of 6.400% Notes due 2034.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • ASTI: Announces Closing of Public Offering of Units.
    • BHVN: Announces Proposed Public Offering Of Common Shares – $200 million. (JPM Bookmanager) – (See also Pricing and Mixed Shelf)
    • GAIA: Announces Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock.
    • PNC: Announces Redemption Of All Depositary Shares Representing Interests In Series O Stock.
    • RNLX: Filed Form RW.
    • SLNO: Announces Closing of Underwritten Public Offering of Common Stock and Concurrent Private Placement of Common Stock and Pre-Funded Warrants and Full Exercise of Underwriters’ Option to Purchase Additional Shares.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note: None of note.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • BHVN: Filed Form S-3ASR — Mixed Shelf.
    • BODY: Filed Form S-3.. $50 Million Mixed Shelf.
    • THRD: Filed Form S-3.. $400 Million Mixed Shelf.
    • TPB: Files $500 million mixed shelf securities offering.
    • WEST: Files $500 million mixed shelf securities offering.
  • Debt/Credit Filing and Notes:
    • IMVT: Announces Closing of Upsized Common Stock Financing and Full Exercise of Underwriters’ Option to Purchase Additional Shares.
  • Tender Offer: None of note.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close and Over the Holiday:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: ODD +13%, SCU +5%, TNYA +5% of note.
    • Trading Down: TAK -6%, BHVN -4% of note.
  • News Items After the Close:
    • Elliott Is Exploring Sale of Technology Company Gigamon.  Gigamon makes tools similar to Splunk, which Cisco (CSCO) is buying. (Bloomberg)
    • Ford (F) Temporarily Laying Off 330 Workers In Chicago, Ohio Because Of Impact Of UAW Strike.
    • WeWork (WE) elects to withhold interest payments in order to allow discussions with certain stakeholders in its capital structure to commence.
    • TikTok Is Testing a $5-Per-Month, Ad-Free Version of Its App. (theinformation)
    • META: Meta could start charging $14 a month for ad-free Instagram or Facebook. (WSJ)
    • Visa (V) Launches $100 million Generative AI Ventures Initiative.
    • Ally Financial (ALLY) to lay off nearly 5% of staff.
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Aura Biosciences (AURA) appoints Jill Hopkins as Chief Medical Officer.
    • BMBL: Veteran Tech Exec Sissie Hsiao joins Bumble Inc. Board of Directors.
    • Jianpu Technology Inc. (JT) Announces Receipt of NYSE Non-compliance Letter Regarding ADS Trading Price.
    • Leafly (LFLY) Regains Compliance with Nasdaq Minimum Bid Price Requirement.
    • MongoDB (MDB) names Jim Scharf as CTO; joins from Amazon Web Services.
    • SDC being delisted.
    • Sonendo, Inc. (SONX) Announces Receipt of Notice of Non-Compliance with NYSE Trading Share Price Listing Rule.
    • Symbotic (SYM) announces retirement of CFO Tom Ernst and appointment of Carol Hibbard as successor.
  • Buyback Announcements or News:
    • American Outdoor Brands (AOUT) Board of Directors Approves $10 Million Share Repurchase Program.
    • Brown-Forman (BF.A) Board Approves Share Repurchase Authorization of $400 Million.
    • DHT Holdings, Inc. (DHT) announces share buyback.
    • Micron Solutions (MICR) announces proposal for 1-for-1000 stock split.
  • Stock Splits or News:
    • Spruce Power (SPRU) Announces Reverse Stock Split.
  • Dividends Announcements or News:
    • Bank OZK (OZK) Announces Increase to Quarterly Common Stock Dividend and Announces Preferred Stock Dividend.
  • Insider Sales Of Note: None of note.

What’s Happening This MorningFutures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 -20, Dow Jones -146,  NASDAQ -82, and Russell 2000 -8.  (as of 7:57 a.m. EDT).  Asia is lower ex South Korea while Europe is lower ex the FTSE this morning. VIX Futures are at 17.92 from 17.60 yesterday.  Gold, Silver and Copper are lower this morning for the second consecutive day. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Crude Oil are lower with Natural Gas lower as well. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 4.718% from 4.629% Friday. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher versus the Pound and lower against the YenBitcoin is at $27,606 from $28,358 yesterday, lower by -0.91%.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Communication Services of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Utilities, Energy, Real Estate, Basic Materials of note.
  • One Month Winners: Energy  of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Energy, Communication Services of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Communication Services, Energy, and Technology of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, and Energy of note.
  • Year to Date Winners:  Communication Services, Technology, Consumer Cyclical of note.

Tumbling Utilities weighed on the S&P 500 on Monday as investors dumped dividend-paying shares in favor of less-risky and higher-yielding U.S. Treasurys. Shares in the S&P 500’s utilities segment dropped 4.7%, marking their worst session since the early days of 2020’s Covid-19 lockdown. AES Corp (AES)PG&E (PCG) and Dominion Energy (D) were among the 17 utilities in the index that fell more than 4%. NextEra Energy (NEE) dropped 9%. The broader S&P 500 ended Monday less than 0.1% higher despite the sell-off in utilities. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2%, or about 74 points. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite added 0.7%.  The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies declined 1.6% to turn negative year to date.  Utilities, which are usually considered among the safest bets in the stock market and offer some of the highest dividends, have shed 20% this year, the worst-performing sector in the index.  (WSJ – edited by QPI)

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Tuesday After the Close:

  • Wednesday Before the Open:

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: None of note.
  • Flat: MKC of note.
  • Misses: None of note.
  • Still to Report: None of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: ODD +13%, ATAI +7%, SCU +6% of note.
  • Gap Down: ALXO -13%, BHVN -6%, CIFR -4% of note.

Insider ActionCOTY, SPRY sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  No stock sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & MagsRepeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: WMG, PNT, WRBY, LLY, HPQ, MKC, ABNB, EMR (CNBC)
  • 5 Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg
  • 5 Things to Know Before the Stock Market Opens. (CNBC)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: From $26 Billion to Bust: Sam Bankman-Fried’s Astonishing Rise and Fall. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Second Most Shared StoryJP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon Predicts a 3.5 Day Work Week For Next Generation Thanks to AI. (Bloomberg)
  • Stocks pause as bond yields head toward 2007 high. (Bloomberg)
  • Rep Matt Gaetz (R-FL) moves to formally remove House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-FL) from his post. (Bloomberg)
  • 30-Year Treasury rises to highest level since 2007. (Bloomberg)
  • “The Wild Bunch” have taken control of the bond market(MarketWatch)
  • NPR Morning Report Marketplace: Millions owe student loan payments, again. (Podcast)
  • NY Times The Daily:  Sam Bankman-Fried Goes on Trial. (Podcast)
  • BBC Global News: Trump told nobody above the law. (Podcast
  • Bloomberg: Despite recession fears, small businesses keep opening. Can they survive?  (Podcast)
  • Wealthion: Markets to stage one last hurrah before rolling over with Tom Thornton, up to 10:00 a.m. EDT. (Podcast)

Moving Average Update:

  • Score goes up to 28% from 22%.


  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing, 9:00 a.m. EDT
    • Press Briefing by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre and NSC Coordinator for Strategic Communications John Kirby, 1:00 p.m. EDT


  • Redbook Sales 8:55 a.m. EDT
  • August JOLTS is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and last month came in at 8.827 million.
  • API Crude Oil Data 4:30 p.m. EDT

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:  

  • Federal Reserve Atlanta President Raphael Bostic 8:00 a.m. EDT

M&A Activity and News: 

  • Ryerson (RYI) Acquires Norlen Incorporated.
  • Vericity (VERY) to be acquired in an all-cash transaction valued at approximately $170 million, $11.43 per share.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Bank of America Securities CNS Therapeutics Virtual Conference 2023
    • Goldman Sachs Alzheimer’s Disease Day
    • LD Micro 16th Annual Main Event Conference 2023 (10/03/23-10/05/23)
    • Mizuho Annual REIT Conference
    • Wells Fargo Therapeutics Insights Conference
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • Chardan 7th Annual Genetic Medicines Conference 2023 (10/02/23-10/03/23)
        • Deutsche Bank Leveraged Finance Conference (10/02/23-10/04/23)
        • RBC Virtual CDMO Conference 2023 (10/02/23-10/03/23)
        • UBS Mobility Virtual Conference (10/02/23-10/03/23)
        • TD Cowen Annual Therapeutics Conference
  • Top Shareholder Meetings: BITC, CMRE, MBRX
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: ALXO, RAY, ASAN, DNA, ED, EWTX, FG, ODD, PDSB, REPYY, TAP
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event:
    • Microsoft (MSFT) 2nd Annual Power Platform Conference 2023 (10/03/23-10/05/23)
  • Industry Meetings:

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

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