The Daily Briefing For October 18th: Stocks Lower On Higher Rates and Oil With Geopolitical Concerns Mixed In

by Geoff Garbacz | 10/18/2023 8:38 PM

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The Daily Briefing For October 18th: Stocks Lower On Higher Rates and Oil With Geopolitical Concerns Mixed In

Overnight SummaryThe S&P 500 closed Tuesday lower by -0.01% at 4373.20 from Monday higher by 1.06% at 4373.63. The overnight high was hit at 4403.25 at 4:05 p.m. EDT while the low was hit at 4378.25 at 6:55 a.m. EDT. The range overnight was 25 points as of 7:25 a.m. EDT. The 10-day average of the overnight range is at 23.50 from 24.50 down from a peak of 31.50 on 8/15.  The average for May-September average was 20.96 from 21.10 in May through August and the September average was 19.87. Currently, the S&P 500 is lower by -19.250 points which is -0.44% at  7:25 a.m. EDT.

Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats: UAL +0.27, WTFC +0.12, HWC +0.08, IBKR +0.04, FULT +0.02, OMC +0.02 of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: WAFD (0.19), JBHT (0.03), PNFP (0.01) of note.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News: None of note.
  • Secondaries Priced: None of note.
  • Notes Priced of note: None of note.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • BAER: Commences $70 million public offering of common stock.
    • CDT: Filed Form S-1.. 7,755,710 Shares of Common Stock 16,033,000 Shares of Common Stock Underlying Warrants 976,000 Shares of Common Stock Underlying an Option.
    • NUZE: Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock. (Maxim Bookmanager)
    • RARE: Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock. up to $300,000,000 of shares. (JPM, GS, BAC, TD bookmanagers)
    • SSNT: Filed Form RW.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • DINO: Agreed to repurchase from the Selling Stockholder 1,376,652 shares of the Company’s outstanding common stock.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • AMAM: Files $300 million mixed shelf securities offering.
    • NXU: Filed Form S-3.. $75,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
  • Debt/Credit Filing and Notes: None of note.
  • Tender Offer: None of note.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed:
    • NUWE: Announces Closing of $2.25 Million Public Offering of Series J Convertible Redeemable Preferred Stock and Warrants.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close :

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: VKTX +9%, FND +6%of note.
    • Trading Down: RARE -6%, WAFD -6%, MIRM -5%, BIO -5%, BAER -5%, AMAM -4%, UAL -4%, JBHT -4%, IBKR -4% of note.
  • News Items After the Close:
    • Nvidia (NVDA) says China AI chip ban could result in delays, and transition of operations. (MarketWatch)
    • Fed to Propose Lowering Debit-Card Swipe Fees. (WSJ)
    • Terex’s (TEX) stock slides as hiked outlook falls short of Street view (MarketWatch)
    • Viking Therapeutics’ (VKTX) stock rallies following early drug study data (MarketWatch)
    • Microsoft (MSFT) is preparing to bring on Amazon (AMZN) as a customer of its 365 cloud tools in a $1 billion megadeal, according to an internal document. (BuisinessInsider)
    • The number of homes on the market grew month over month for a sixth consecutive month in September as sales declined 13.8% from August and 17.0% from a year ago. The 9.3% increase in inventory was the largest month-over-month increase in 14 months. Even so, inventory is 8.6% below September 2022 levels.  (Remax)
    • X, formerly known as Twitter, will begin charging new users $1 a year to access key features including the ability to tweet and retweet. (Forbes)
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Index Changes: Floor & Decor Holdings (FND) to join S&P MidCap 400; Vicor (VICR) to join S&P SmallCap 600
    • Ambarella (AMBA) CFO Brian White will retire at the conclusion of the current fiscal year ending January 31, 2024.
    • American Eagle (AEO) appoints two executive positions after the departure of its COO.
    • Bio-Rad Labs (BIO) CFO Ilan Daskal to resign.
    • Cameco (CCJ) announces its Board Chair Ian Bruce passed away on October 15.
    • KANZHUN Limited (BZ) announces board changes; Charles Zhaoxuan Yang and Yusheng Wang have resigned as independent non-executive directors.
    • Park City (PCYG) will transition from NASDAQ to NYSE effective on or about November 2, 2023; to rebrand with corporate name ‘ReposiTrak’ and ticker symbol ‘TRAK’.
    • Terex (TEX) announces that John Garrison is retiring as Chairman and CEO.
  • Buyback Announcements or News: 
    • Just Eat Takeaway (JTKWY) launching a new share buyback program of up to EUR 150 million.
  • Stock Splits or News:
    • TALS 1-for-10 reverse split.
    • WAVD trading reverse split price
  • Dividends Announcements or News: 
    • Liberty Energy (LBRT) increases quarterly cash dividend 40% to $0.07 per share from $0.05 per share.
    • Lincoln Electric (LECO) increases quarterly cash dividend 11% to $0.71 per share from $0.64 per share.
  • Insider Sales Of Note: None of note.

What’s Happening This MorningFutures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 -18Dow Jones -87,  NASDAQ -82, and Russell 2000 -9.  (as of 7:59 a.m. EDT).  Asia is higher while Europe is lower this morning ex the FTSE. VIX Futures are at 19.10 from 18.20 yesterday.  GoldSilver and Copper higher this morning. WTI Crude Oil  and Brent Crude Oil are higher with Natural Gas higher as well. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 4.817% from 4.75% yesterday. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher versus the Pound and lower against the YenBitcoin is at $28,408 from $28,587 yesterday, lower by -0.26%.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Basic Materials, Energy, Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Technology of note.
  • One Month Winners: None of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Energy and Communication Services of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Communication Services, Technology, Consumer Cyclical of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, and Industrials of note.
  • Year to Date Winners:  Communication Services, Technology, Consumer Cyclical of note.

U.S. government bond yields hit fresh decade-plus highs Tuesday after another hot economic-data release fueled concerns that interest rates could remain elevated for longer.   The latest retail sales report showed spending online, at stores and in restaurants rose a stronger-than-expected 0.7% in September from a month earlier. Treasury yields jumped afterward, with the benchmark 10-year bond yield rising to 4.846%, up from 4.709% Monday. It was the highest closing level since July 2007.  Stocks wavered between gains and losses before closing little changed. The S&P 500 fell less than one-tenth of a percent, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average added less than one-tenth of a percent. The Nasdaq Composite was 0.3% lower.  (WSJ – edited by QPI)

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Wednesday After the Close:


  • Thursday Before the Open:

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: ELV +0.54, WGO +0.23, ASML +0.13, PG +0.11, MTB +0.10, USB +0.09, MS +0.07, ABT +0.04, FHN +0.03, ALLY +0.03, CBSH +0.03, NDAQ +0.02, UCBI +0.01 of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: TRV (1.04), STT (0.54), UNF (0.16), SCL (0.12), CFG (0.06), NTRS (0.01) of note.
  • Still to Report: None of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: GBDC, ELV, ABT of note.
  • Negative Guidance: UAL, TEX, USB, SPR of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: VKTX +9%, TALS +8%, FND +8%, RYTM +6%, FULT +4% of note.
  • Gap Down: BAER -6%, WAFD -6%, MIRM -6%, UAL -6%, BIO -5%, RARE -5%, GOGO -4%, JBHT -4% of note.

Insider ActionCERE sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  No stock sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & MagsRepeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • 5 Things To Know Before The Stock Market Opens Wednesday. (CNBC)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story:  Biden Sees “Other Team” and Not Israel Behind Hospital Blast in Gaza. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Second Most Shared StoryReal Estate Brokers Pocketing Up to 6% Fees Draw Antitrust Scrutiny. (Bloomberg)
  • Oil Jumps as Iran seeks Israel embargo; Stocks dip: Market Wrap. (Bloomberg)
  • China’s Strong GDP Report Shows Housing Remains A Big Problem. (Bloomberg)
  • Mortgage demand slows to the lowest level since 1995 as rates approach 8%. (CNBC)
  • Procter & Gamble (PG) tops earnings, and revenue estimates even as unit volumes drop. (CNBC)
  • Morgan Stanley (MS) tops estimates on better-than-expected trading results. (CNBC)
  • NPR Morning Report Marketplace: Bacteria could be the key to a safer, greener way of processing rare-earth metals. (Podcast)
  • NY Times The Daily:   The diplomatic scramble to contain the Israel-Hamas war. (Podcast)
  • BBC Global News:  Strike on Gaza hospital kills more than 500 people. (Podcast
  • Wealthion: The economy is trapped in a vicious cycle of more debt & bigger deficits. (Podcast)

Moving Average Update:

  • Score improves to 71% from 68%.


  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • President is in Israel.  No schedule was posted.


  • MBA Mortgage Applications 7:00 a.m. EDT
    • MBA Mortgage Applications: Composite: -6.9%, Purchase: -5.6%, Refi:-9.9%
  • September Housing Starts are due outat 8:30 a.m. EDT and expected to come in at 1,380,000 from 1,283,000 last month.
  • EIA Petroleum Report 10:30 a.m. EDT
  • Federal Reserve Beige Book from the last month is due out at 2:00 p.m. EDT
  • Treasury IUnt. Capital 4:00 p.m. EDT

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:  

  • Federal Reserve Board of Governors Christopher Waller 12:00 p.m. EDT
  • Federal Reserve New York President John Williams 12:30 p.m. EDT
  • Federal Reserve Board of Governors Michelle Bowman 1:00 p.m. EDT
  • Federal Reserve Philadelphia President Patrick Harker 3:15 p.m. EDT
  • Federal Reserve Board of Governors Lisa D. Cook 6:55 p.m. EDT

M&A Activity and News: 

  • The J.M. Smucker Co. (SJM) Announces Agreement to Divest Fermented Food Condiment Brands in Canada.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

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