The Daily Briefing For October 18th: Stocks Higher For Second Morning This Week

by Geoff Garbacz | 10/18/2022 9:07 AM

Rebel Yell Morning Market Report

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The Daily Briefing For October 18th: Stocks Higher For Second Morning This Week

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Monday at 3677.95 (higher by 2.65%) from Friday at 3583.07 (lower by  -2.37%).  The overnight high of 3764 was hit at 12:30 a.m. EDT. The low was hit at 3688.50 at 4:05 p.m. EDT, a range of 75 points high to low which is above the recent range of 45.  At 7:10 a.m. EDT, the S&P 500 was up +50.25 points which is +1.36%.  

Breaking News:  Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon interview, says a good chance of recession. (CNBC)

Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats: ELS +0.01.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: MRTN (0.01).

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News:
    • Intel (INTC) Eyes Significantly Lower Valuation In IPO Of Mobileye Unit. (WSJ)
      • Mobileye Files to Offer 41 million Shares in IPO.
      • Sees IPO to Price Between $18.00 & $20.00 per share.
    • Natura &Co (NTCO) to initiate a comparative study for either an IPO of Aesop or a spin-off to separate Aesop from Natura.
  • New SPACs launched/News:
    • PWP Forward Acquisition Corp. I (FRW) files proxy statement to seek stockholder approval to liquidate early.
  • Secondaries Priced: None of note.
  • Notes Priced of note:
    • FANG: Prices Offering of Senior Notes.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • ILAG: Form 6K — Purchase agreement.
    • RMED: Raises $7.6 Million Through Completed At-The-Market Facility.
    • SILK: Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock.. $100 million of shares.. JPM and BAC Bookmanager
  • Pricing of Over-Allotment/Notes: None of note.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note: None of note.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE):
    • BBLN: Receives $80 Million in Total Subscriptions for Private Placement Financing.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • BQ: Filed Form F-3.. US$260,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
  • Debt Filing/Notes:
    • WFRD: Announces Redemption of $125 Million Principal Amount of its 11.0% Senior Notes due December 1, 2024.
    • CCL: Announces Offering of $1.25 Billion Senior Priority Notes due 2028 to be Issued by Carnival Holdings (Bermuda) Limited for Refinancing.
  • Tender Offer: None of note.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: MFA +11%, FUBO +8%, AR +4%.
    • Trading Down: SILK -6%.
  • News Since The Close:
    • Stocks making the biggest moves after hours:  (CNBC)
    • Boeing (BA) Offers 737 Max Jets to Air India Amid US-China Trade Tensions. (Bloomberg)
    • California Covid State Of Emergency Will End On Feb 28, 2023.
    • JPMorgan (JPM) Investment Banking Chief Hernandez to retire in 2023. (Reuters)
    • TikTok overtakes Netflix (NFLX) as most popular app with under 35s in the USA. (Omdia)
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • SP Additions:
      • Antero Resources (AR) Set to Join S&P MidCap 400.
    • Azenta (AZTA) COO Matthew McManus resigned.
    • Conn’s (CONN) Announces Leadership Change -Chandra Holt has Stepped Down as President and Chief Executive Officer.
    • El Pollo Loco (LOCO) Names Maria Hollandsworth as Chief Operating Officer.
    • Exelon (EXC) names Jeanne Jones as its new CFO.
    • MREO Announces 40% Workforce Reduction.
    • Puhui Wealth Investment Management Co., Ltd. (PHCF) Announces Receipt of Nasdaq Delisting Notification and Plans to Appeal
    • SomaLogic (SLGC) appoints current board member Troy Cox as Executive Chair.
    • Stewart Info (STC) extends CEO contract.
    • Tiptree (TIPT) Announces Plan for CFO Transition.
  • Buyback Announcements or News:
    • BCB Bancorp, Inc. (BCBP) Announces Amendment to Stock Repurchase Program.
    • LMT: Increased share repurchase authority by $14.0 billion. (see Dividend also)
  • Stock Splits or News: None of note.
  • Dividends Announcements or News: 
    • Hercules Capital (HTGC) increases its quarterly cash distribution to $0.36 per shares, a $0.01 bump.
    • IP downgrade to SELL @ DB mentions risk to dividend.
    • LMT: Increased quarterly dividend rate 7% to $3.00 per share.

What’s Happening This MorningFutures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 +67, Dow Jones +496, NASDAQ +223, and Russell 2000 +32. (as of 8:08 a.m. EDT)Europe higher and Asia higher ex Shanghai.  VIX Futures are at 30.27 from 31.12  yesterday morning and the VIX closed at 31.37 from 32.02 yesterday. Gold, Silver and Copper lower. WTI Crude Oil lower and Brent Oil Futures higher with Natural Gas lower. $ is higher vs Euro, higher vs Pound and higher vs Yen. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 3.994% from 3.941% yesterday. Bitcoin is at $19,533.05 from $19,499 Monday morning and is higher by 0.04% this morning.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Consumer Cyclical, Real Estate, Communication Services, Technology, Basic Materiasl, Utilities, Industrials, Fiancial of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: None of note.
  • One Month Winners:  None of note.
  • Three Month Winners:  Energy of note.
  • Six Month Winners: None of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Energy of note.

Big earnings from big banks help propel the index to sizeable gains.  The SPX closed at 3677.95 up 2.65%.  The NASDAQ ended the day up 3.43%!  UNG was down 6.80% and the TLT remains below the 100 mark closing at 98.09.

Click here for a video explanation of Erlanger Value Lines.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Tuesday After the Close: NFLX, ISRG, IBKR, JBHT, OMC, FHN, UAL, PNFP, WTFC, FNB, HWC, UCBI, FULT of note.
  • Wednesday Before the Open: PG, ASML, ABT, ELV, PLD, TRV, MTB, NDAQ, BKR, NTRS, CFG, CMA, ALLY, MKTX, LAD, UNF, BMI, SCL, WGO, HCSG of note.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: GS +0.74, LMT +0.15, SBNY +0.11, JNJ +0.06, STT +0.02, TFC +0.01
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: HAS (0.18), SI (0.13), CBSH (0.01).
  • Still to Report: ACI


  • Positive Guidance: RNGR, SILK, VSH of note.
  • Negative Guidance: XPO, MATX of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart: 

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: AVEO +37%, FUBO +10%, XAIR +5%, NTCO +4%, AR +4%, MFA +4%.
  • Gap Down: IDYA -5%.

Insider Action:  REPX, EVA, AZZ sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  TCDA sees Insider buying with smart short sellers

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Stocks Making The Biggest Moves: GS JNJ FUBO HAS AMZN XPO JWN INTC TGT. (CNBC)
  • Five Things to Know This Morning. (CNBC)
  • Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story:  Even as Inflation Climbs, Wall Street Sees Steep Fall Coming. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Read Story:  Forecast of Recession Hits 100%, Blow to Biden. (Bloomberg)
  • Danish Police find that powerful explosion occurred on the pipelines that were damaged. (CNBC)
  • Bank of England to delay bond sales until the market stabilizes. (FT)
  • Dozens of ships carrying LNG stuck off Spain’s coast as ports at capacity. (Reuters)
  • Secretary of State Blinken believes China will move to annex Taiwan on a much faster timeline than many expect. (Axios)
  • White House to release more from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve this week, another 10-15 million barrels. (Bloomberg)
  • Bank of America Survey screams that investors have capitulated. Rally in 2023. (Bloomberg)
  • Goldman Sachs (GS) Shares rise on strong bond trading results. (CNBC)
  • Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) beats estimates on Pharma Sales. (MarketWatch)
  • Microsoft (MSFT) to eliminate more jobs this week. (WSJ)

Moving Average Update:

  • Like a yo-yo.  Score jumps to 42% from 3%. (see what I did there from yesterday?)


  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President departs the White House, 11:15 a.m. EDT
    • The President delivers remarks at a political event at the Howard Theatre, 12:15 p.m. EDT
    • The President arrives at the White House, 1:10 p.m. EDT
    • Press Briefing by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, 1:45 p.m. EDT


  • Redbook Sales 8:55 a.m. EDT
  • September Industrial Production is due out at 9:15 a.m. EDT and is expected to come in at 0.1% from -0.2%.
  • October NAHB Housing Index is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to come in at 44 from 46.
  • API Crude Oil Data 4:30 p.m. EDT

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:

  • Federal Research Atlanta President Raphael Bostic 2:00 p.m. EDT
  • Federal Reserve Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari 5:30 p.m. EDT.

M&A Activity:

  • LG Chem to Acquire AVEO Oncology (AVEO) for $15/Share in Cash
  • Ping Identity (PING) shareholders approve pending acquisition by Thoma Bravo, which is expected to close on October 18.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Capital Link Shipping & Marine Services Forum (10/18/22-10/19/22)
    • Mizuho 13D Monitor 2022 Active-Passive Investor Summit
    • Wainwright 3rd Annual Hepatitis B Virus
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
  • Company Meetings: UBX
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: BTAI, URGN
  • Update: None of note
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event:
    • Lenovo Tech World ’22
    • Adobe (ADBE) MAX.
    • bbcon (Blackbaud’s  [BLKB] Tech Conference for Good) 2022 Virtual (10/17/22-10/18/22)
    • Global RMC 2022 (27th annual Cboe Risk Management Conference) (10/17/22-10/21/22)
  • Industry Meetings:

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

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