Rebel Yell Morning Market Report

Your Daily Financial Market Briefing - Giving You An Investing Edge Before Each Trading Day Begins

The Daily Briefing For October 18th: Are Stocks Stable Here Or Is There More To Go?

Quick Takeaways From Thursday Morning

1.Can I buy stocks? Despite the Tuesday pop there is no clear buy signal emerging. So we need to remain sitting on our hands and wait for more signs that we are at the low as opposed to a low.

2.Slowly yields on Treasuries are starting to rise again which is a negative for stocks. Above 3.30 % on the 10 year Treasury would be a real problem.

3.Despite Saudi and Iran issues, the price of oil is falling. Is this a tell as we head into the OPEC meeting on December 6th. It appears production is being increased to handle the sanction on Iran.

4.Tomorrow is options expiration and often bad days occur around this October expiration and it usually marks the bottom for the remainder of the year. Watch this closely.

The Daily Briefing

In After Hours Trading


IPOs on deck Osmotica Pharmaceuticals (OSMT), PhasBio Pharmaceuticals (PHAS) and Studio City International (MSC). Secondaries of note ACRS GMO VJET.

Filings after close .

data courtesy of IPO Financial

In After Hours Trading: SURPRISES AA +.29 URI +.19 CCK +.06 UMPQ +.04 TBK +.04 CCI +.04 STLD +.03 CNS +.02. FLAT: MISSED: KALU -.12 TCBI -.03.

Lower Guidance: CCK.

Mixed Guidance: CCI URI.

Positive Guidance: UAL CSX.

What's Happening This Morning


U.S. futures: S&P -10 Dow Jones -76, NDX -35 and Russell 2000 -6 with fair values LOWER hurting open. Asia and Europe lower as well.

Gold,silver and copper lower. WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures lower. Natural Gas is lower. $ is lower vs Euro, higher vs. Pound and lower vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury price 117.89 with yields flat since last yesterday. Prices as of 8:15 a.m. EDT.

Top Sectors Financials and Healthcare.

Weak Sectors Basic Materials and Industrials along with Technology.

One month winners Healthcare,Consumer Goods, Services and Technology.

Three Month Winners Healthcare, Consumer Goods, Services and Technology.

Six Month Winners Conglomerates, Services and Technology.

One Year Winners All except for Utilities.

Year To Date Conglomerates, Healthcare and Services.

Earnings Expected


Earnings due after the close (by avg. trade volume): PYPL AXP ISRG CE ETFC ATHN OZK SKX.

Earnings due Friday morning: PG HON SLB VFC STT STI RCI SYF CFG KSU IPG GNTX MAN IBKC CLF.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street


Uber raised $2 billion in a sale of bonds as it looks to IPO in 2019. (Financial Times)

Constellation Brands (STZ) to step down in March. (CNBC)

Housing stocks having worst year since 2008. (CNBC)

Treasury stops short of calling China a currency manipulator. (NYT)

Trump stresses to stay aligned with Saudis despite Khashoggi incident. (WSJ)

Reported Earnings This Morning


Reported This Morning: SURPRISES ERIC +.54 TRV +.28 PM +.15 DOV +.07 POOL +.07 ADS +.07 SAP +.05 DHR +.03 EWBC +.03 BK +.02 TSM +.02 SNA +.02. FLAT: MISSED: .

Missing: .

Lower Guidance: none of note.

Current Morning missing: .

Mixed Guidance: WBC DHR .

Positive Guidance: POOL.

Data Points


Yesterday saw 1069 stocks rise and 1815 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 1260 rise and 1749 fall.

The SP 500 is now well below its 50 day exponential moving average and is back above its 200 day exponential moving average. The Russell 2000 is below its 50 day moving exponential average and 200 day exponential moving average.

The 10 day spread moving average of breadth is in cash. The Madison Market Timing Indicator is still invested.

YTD 41% of stocks are higher and 59% are lower. Updated 10/12/18 close.

Economics


Weekly Jobless Claims are due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT.

September Leading Indicators are due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and are expected to rise to 0.5% from 0.4%.

The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey is due out and is expected to fall to 20 from 22.90.

Weekly Natural Gas inventories are due out at 10:30 a.m. EDT.

Politico


Federal Reserve St. Louis President James Bullard speaks on monetary policy today (no specific time yet, check my Twitter handle Bullet86).

Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Randal Quarles speaks at 12:00 p.m EDT to the New York Economics Club.

Conference & Analyst Meetings


Meetings, Conference Calls or Announcements of note, NSRGY AXSM NEWR.

BIO Investor Forum.

Conference of Note

North American Cycstic Fibrosis Conference.

M & A News

Key Upgrades and Downgrades

FirmUpgradesDowngrades
JP Morgan  
Goldman SachsFLRMXIM ADI
Morgan Stanley WING
Deutsche Bank  
Citigroup CC Merrill Lynchp  
Merrill Lynch SEE
Wachovia/Wells Fargo  
Credit Suisse  
Banc of America  
UBS  
Deutsche BankNTRS 
Piper Jaffray  
Jefferies  
Nomura  
Needham  
Raymond James  
StephensUAL 

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