The Daily Briefing For October 17th: Retail Sales To Provide Clues On The Consumer At 8:30 a.m. EDT

by Geoff Garbacz | 10/17/2023 8:34 AM

Rebel Yell Morning Market Report

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The Daily Briefing For October 17th: Retail Sales To Provide Clues On The Consumer At 8:30 a.m. EDT

Overnight SummaryThe S&P 500 closed Monday higher by 1.06% at 4373.63 from Friday lower by -0.50% at 4327.78. The overnight high was hit at 4407 at 4:30 p.m. EDT while the low was hit at 4387.50. at 4:45 a.m. EDT. The range overnight was 21 points as of 7:20 a.m. EDT. The 10-day average of the overnight range is at 24.50 from 24.40 down from a peak of 31.50 on 8/15.  The average for May-September average was 20.96 from 21.10 in May through August and the September average was 19.87. Currently, the S&P 500 is lower by -8.50 points which is -0.19% at  7:25 a.m. EDT.

Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats: CFB +0.05, SFBS +0.02 of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: ELS (0.01) of note.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News:
    • Healthwell Acquisition Corp. I (HWEL) Announces New Meeting Date for the Special Meeting of Stockholders to Approve Proposed Business Combination With Starton Therapeutics, Inc. and Related Transactions.
  • Secondaries Priced:
    • NUVL: Prices offering of 5,357,143 shares of Class A common stock at $56.00 per share.
  • Notes Priced of note: None of note.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • LQR: Announces Closing of $5.4 Million Public Offering.
    • SRRK: Closing of Public Offering and Full Exercise of Option to Purchase Additional Shares.
    • XXII: Proposed Public Offering. (Dawson James Bookmanager)
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • STSS: Filed Form S-1.. 11,331,482 Shares of Common Stock Offered by the Selling Stockholders.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • CMMB: Filed Form F-3.. $200,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
  • Debt/Credit Filing and Notes:
    • ECPG: Completes Offering of Senior Secured Floating Rate Notes.
  • Tender Offer: None of note.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close :

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: CLVT +5% of note.
    • Trading Down: NTCT -17%, SFBS -13% of note.
  • News Items After the Close:
    • US President Biden Plans Visit To Israel In Display Of Support Following Hamas Attack. (Bloomberg)
    • U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken And Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu To Deliver Announcement At Embassy. (US State Department)
    • Federal Reserve Philadelphia President Patrick Harker Says Interest Rate Hikes Are Likely Over, Sees Ebbing Inflation.
    • NetScout’s (NTCT) stock drops 20% after full-year outlook reduced. (MarketWatch)
    • Trump media SPAC Digital World Acquisition Corp. (DWAC) to restate financials from 2021. (MarketWatch)
    • ServisFirst Bancshares (SFBS) stock falls after net interest income misses expectations (MarketWatch)
    • FTX’s Political Donations Came From Stolen Customer Funds, Testifies Company Insider Nishad Singh. (WSJ)
    • General Dynamics (GD) Electric Boat Awarded $217 Million Contract for Virginia-Class Submarines.
    • KBR Awarded $75 million Contract to Provide Innovative Solutions for U.S. Department of Defense.
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • America’s Car-Mart (CRMT) Announces Passing of Former CEO Hank Henderson.
    • Elys Game Technology (ELYS) Announces Decision of Nasdaq Hearings Panel To Delist Common Shares.
    • Lantronix (LTRX) Chairman Paul Folino passed away on October 13; Jason W. Cohenour, a current member of the Board, has been named interim Chairman.
    • Rite Aid Corporation (RAD): NYSE to Commence Delisting Proceedings.
    • Target (TGT) COO to retire.
    • Tupperware Brands (TUP) Announces CEO Transition and Board Refreshment.
  • Buyback Announcements or News: None of note.
  • Stock Splits or News: None of note.
  • Dividends Announcements or News: None of note.
  • Insider Sales Of Note:
    • HOOD exec sells $849K in common stock.

What’s Happening This MorningFutures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 -12Dow Jones -68,  NASDAQ -44, and Russell 2000 -7.  (as of 7:56 a.m. EDT).  Asia is higher while Europe is lower this morning ex the FTSE. VIX Futures are at 18.20 from 19.33 yesterday.  Gold and Silver are higher with Copper lower this morning. WTI Crude Oil  and Brent Crude Oil are higher with Natural Gas higher as well. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 4.75% from 4.704% yesterday. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher versus the Pound and lower against the YenBitcoin is at $28,587 from $27,714 yesterday, higher by 0.29%.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Consumer Cyclical, Communication Services, Basic Materials, Real Estate, Financial, Technology, Industrials, Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: None of note.
  • One Month Winners: None of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Energy and Communication Services of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Communication Services, Technology, Consumer Cyclical of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, and Industrials of note.
  • Year to Date Winners:  Communication Services, Technology, Consumer Cyclical of note.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rebounded from a 1.2% decline on Friday, by adding back 1.2%. The S&P 500 rose 1.1%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 314 points, or 0.9%. At the other end of the reversal, Monday was more challenging for assets such as Gold and U.S. Treasuries, which had rallied Friday.  Gold for October delivery slipped 0.3% to $1,921.10 a troy ounce after climbing 3.1% Friday, its largest one-day gain since December 2022. Bond prices also fell, pushing the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note up to 4.709% from 4.628% Friday. (WSJ – edited by QPI)m

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Tuesday After the Close:

  • Wednesday Before the Open:

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: JNJ +0.14, MPWM +0.14, BK +0.12, BAC +0.07, LMT +0.06, GS +0.05 of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: ERIC (SEK10.00) of note.
  • Still to Report: ACI, PLD of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: INDI, ATEC, METC, JNJ of note.
  • Negative Guidance: RARE, ADTN of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: METC +6%, CFB +4% of note.
  • Gap Down: NTCT -23%, SFBS -7%, ERIC -5%, LTRX -4% of note.

Insider Action: No stock sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  HHH sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & MagsRepeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • 5 Things Need To Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • 5 Things To Know Before The Stock Market Opens Tuesday. (CNBC)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: Biden Plans High Stakes Visit To Israel.  (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Second Most Shared Story: American Work From Home Rates Drop to Lowest Since Pandemic. (Bloomberg)
  • Stocks and Bonds slip before Biden trip to Israel: Market Wrap. (Bloomberg)
  • Country Garden and Evergrande set up two tense weeks for creditors. (Bloomberg)
  • Holiday spending to grow 14% this year says Deloitte. (Bloomberg)
  • Apple (AAPL) CEO makes surprise visit to China as iPhone 15 sales struggle. (CNBC)
  • Bank of America (BAC) beats estimates on trading and net interest gains. (Bloomberg)
  • Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) beats on earnings and hike outlook on med tech and pharma sales. (CNBC)
  • Goldman Sachs (GS) tops estimates on stronger than expected bond trading results. (CNBC)
  • Overall profits plunge on one time writedowns in fintech and real estate for Goldman Sachs(Reuters)
  • NPR Morning Report Marketplace:  How IRS is using $60 Billion to make filing taxes easier. (Podcast)
  • NY Times The Daily:  The arm twisting, back stabbing battle for House Speaker. (Podcast)
  • BBC Global News: UN operation in Gaza on verge of collapse. (Podcast
  • Bloomberg: The Big Take: Israel braces for a high risk fight in Gaza. (Podcast)

Moving Average Update:

  • Score jumps to 68% from 37%.


  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing, 10:30 a.m. EDT


  • September Retail Sales are due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and expected to drop to 0.3% from 0.6% last month.
  • Redbook Sales 8:55 a.m. EDT
  • September Industrial Production is due out at 9:15 a.m. EDT and is expected to drop to 0% from 0.4%.
  • October NAHB Housing Market Index is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to come in unchanged for last month at 45.
  • Business Inventories 10:00 a.m. EDT
  • API Crude Oil Report 4:30 p.m. EDT

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:  

  • Federal Reserve New York President John Williams 8:00 a.m. EDT
  • Federal Reserve Board of Governors Michelle Bowman 9:20 a.m. EDT
  • Federal Reserve Richmond President Thomas Barkin 10:45 a.m. EDT

M&A Activity and News: 

  • Choice Hotels (CHH) Proposes to Acquire Wyndham Hotels & Resorts (WH) for $90.00 per Share in Cash-and-Stock Transaction. (MarketWatch)

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

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