The Daily Briefing For November 2nd: Futures Higher As Yields Drop On Fed Signal

by Geoff Garbacz | 11/02/2023 8:21 AM

Rebel Yell Morning Market Report

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The Daily Briefing For November 2nd: Futures Higher As Yields Drop On Fed Signal

Overnight SummaryThe S&P 500 closed Wednesday higher by 1.05% back above 4200 at 4237.86 from Tuesday higher by 0.65% at 4193.80. The overnight high was hit at 4281 at 5:35 a.m. EDT while the low was hit at 4254.50 at 4:05 a.m. EDT. The range overnight was 27 points as of 7:30 a.m. EDT. The 10-day average of the overnight range is at 30.80 from 31.20 down from a peak of 31.50 on 8/15.  The average for May-September average was 20.96 from 21.10 in May through August and the September average was 19.87. Currently, the S&P 500 is higher by  +21 points which is  -0.49% at 7:10 a.m. EDT.

Chart of Interest:

Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats: ABNB +4.52, CAR +2.60, RNR +1.75, SRPT +1.59, MUSA +1.31, MELI +1.28, CLX +0.73, QRVO +0.62, EA +0.58, EXAS +0.47, MKSI +0.44, ALL +0.36, AXS +0.36, AFL +0.35, PRU +0.31, QDEL +0.30, ELF +0.29, CWH +0.25, FARO +0.25, HCC +0.25, RDN +0.24, MOD +0.23, IIPR +0.22, QTWO +0.22, ACLS +0.22, DASH +0.21, WTS +0.21, PLMR +0.18, JOBY +0.18, STAA +0.17, CW +0.16, BKH +0.16, MTW +0.16, TYL +0.15, ANSS +0.15, SMCI +0.14, CRC +0.14, PCOR +0.14, REZI +0.14, ERII +0.13, CSGS +0.12, NVRO +0.12, AIG +0.11, QCOM +0.11, GFL +0.11, ZG +0.11, ATRC +0.10, AVT +0.09, SCI +0.09, ATUS +0.09, IR +0.08, MCK +0.08, PK +0.08, RPD +0.08, NMIH +0.08, PYPL +0.07, FROG +0.07, BFAM +0.07, WES +0.07, CTSH +0.07, PTC +0.06, SUM +0.06, CORT +0.06, MLNK +0.06, HST +0.06, SITM +0.06, SRI +0.06, LMND +0.06, GKOS +0.05, MRO +0.05, SIMO +0.05, EGHT +0.05, TENB +0.05, FORM +0.05, ACA +0.05, BWXT +0.04, WMB +0.04, INFA +0.04, NARI +0.04, MDLZ +0.04, LMAT +0.03, KAR +0.03, CHRW +0.03, BXP +0.02, MET +0.02, PRCT +0.02, FSLY +0.02, CFLT +0.02, DXC +0.02, AWK +0.01, FCPT +0.01, NOG +0.01, RYN +0.01, RLJ +0.01, WSC +0.01, ZETA +0.01, QNST +0.01, RSI +0.01, CWAN +0.01 of note.
  • Flat: CLB +0.00, ETSY +0.00, THG +0.00, NGVT +0.00, MGY +0.00, MIR +0.00, NSA +0.00, PGRE +0.00 of note.
  • Misses: MSTR (9.28), ALB (1.03), VAC (0.89), KW (0.74), ECPG (0.53), RGR (0.46), RRX (0.42), LNC (0.29), ROKU (0.29), NTR (0.28), SEDG (0.28), AMWL (0.27), RELY (0.24), SBGI (0.21), ET (0.18), CF (0.17), ALKT (0.15), HLF (0.08), NUS (0.08), CHRD (0.07), SIGI (0.07), WERN (0.07), EIX (0.06), RVLV (0.06), NFG (0.06), CWST (0.04), CAKE (0.04), RGLD (0.03), TNDM (0.03), VSTO (0.03), AFG (0.02), BMRN (0.02), CPE (0.02), HPP (0.02), EXEL (0.02), CCRN (0.02), SDGR (0.01) of note.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News: None of note.
  • Secondaries Priced: None of note.
  • Notes Priced of note: None of note.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • ATRA: Form 8K.. entered into a sales agreement up to $100.0 million through TD Cowen. (see Mixed Shelf)
    • LIPO: Filed Form S-1.. Up to 2,730,264 Shares of Common Stock Issuable Upon Exercise of Certain Pre-Funded Common Stock Purchase Warrants, Common Stock Purchase Warrants and Placement Agent Warrants.
    • MYI: Filed Form RW.
    • POET: Announces Public Offering of Common Shares and Warrants.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note: None of note.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • ATRA: Files $400 million mixed shelf securities offering.
    • ELV: Filed Form S-3ASR — Mixed Shelf Offering.
    • KHC: Filed Form S-3.. $24,000,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
    • REZI: Filed Form S-3ASR — Mixed Shelf Offering.
  • Debt/Credit Filing and Notes:
    • AMZN: Form 8K.. five-year revolving credit agreement.
    • HITI: Restructures $8.9 Million of Outstanding Secured Debt.
  • Tender Offer: None of note.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close :

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: ROKU 16%, FARO 11%, CDNA 11%, CWH 11%, FSLY 11%, FROG 10%, LMND 9%, CLX 9%, ELF 8%, MIR 8%, DASH 8%, RPD 8%, RSI 8%, SEMR 7%, ATRC 7%, MTW 7%, HLF 6%, PTVE 6%, PBPB 6%, SCI 6%, ATRA 6%, CVAC 5%, EA 5%, INFA 5%, NVRO 5%, MOD 4%, CAR 4%, ALL 4%, ERII 4%, PHAT 4%, PK 4%, EGHT 4%, PYPL 4% of note.
    • Trading Down: RELY -22%, SEDG -22%, TNDM -17%, CCRN -16%, PCOR -14%, STAA -11%, ANSS -10%, TENB -10%, ASH -9%, NUS -9%, LNC -9%, NVST -9%, QNST -9%, AMWL -8%, RUN -7%, RVLV -7%, VAC -6%, ALB -5%, EXEL -5%, ETSY -5%, HPP -4%, CTSH -4%, NARI -4%, TWI -4%, LMAT -4%, AFG -4%, BMRN -4%, EXAS -4%, RGR -4%, MKSI -4% of note.
  • News Items After the Close:
    • Stocks making the biggest moves after the bell: QCOM, ETSY, CLX, SEDG, EA, ROKU, TNDM, ELF, ABNB, MDLZ, ZG, SRPT (CNBC)
    • Key Takeaways From Fed’s Decision to Leave Rates Unchanged. (Bloomberg)
    • Qualcomm (QCOM) gives strong forecast, signaling chip slump recovery. (CNBC)
    • Disney (DIS) To Pay $8.6 billion For Comcast’s (CMCSA) 33% Stake In Hulu+. (Bloomberg)
    • Airbnb (ABNB) beats on revenue but offers weaker-than-expected guidance. (CNBC)
    • Roku’s (ROKU) stock pops as company whizzes past earnings expectations. (MarketWatch)
    • PayPal (PYPL) earnings beat expectations, but company lowers target for margin growth (MarketWatch)
    • Zillow’s (ZG) stock drops 4% after real-estate company lowers revenue outlook (MarketWatch)
    • Costco (COST):
      • Reported net sales of $18.53 billion for the retail month of October, the four weeks ended October 29, 2023, an increase of 4.5 percent from $17.73 billion last year.
      • For the first eight weeks of the fiscal year ended October 29, 2023, the Company reported net sales of $36.57 billion, an increase of 5.3 percent from $34.74 billion for the first eight weeks of fiscal year 2023 ended October 23, 2022.
    • Cramer!!!!:  “Was the rally real? What can i say, you know the long knives are out for Apple tomorrow night as we will hear endlessly about how there is no growth this and no growth that.. and Friday-employment.. But the biggest bad events are now over!!”
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • ACRES Commercial Realty (ACR) announces retirement of CFO David Bryant and names Eldon Blackwell as succesor.
    • Aflac (AFL) announces that Frederick J. Crawford, President; Chief Operating Officer of Aflac Incorporated will retire.
    • Avis Budget (CAR) appoints current EVP Izzy Martins as CFO and Jagdeep Pahwa as Chairman.
    • BioMarin Pharmaceutical (BMRN) announces retirement of Jean-Jacques Bienaimé; appoints Alexander Hardy President and CEO.
    • British American Tobacco (BTI) appoints Soraya Benchikh as CFO.
    • CareDx (CDNA) announces that Reginald Seeto will step down as CEO today, board establishes office of the CEO, conducts search for successor.
    • Casella Waste (CWST) announces that Edmond Coletta will retain his role as President; Bradford Helgeson hired to serve as CFO.
    • Hub Security (HUBC) Announces New CFO, a Key Appointment in Its Leadership Team.
    • Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) Announces Executive Leadership Team Appointments.
    • MGP Ingredients (MGPI) Announces CEO Retirement and Succession Plan.
    • PLTR CEO Announces Eligibility to Join S&P 500.
    • PYPL Appoints Jamie Miller as CFO.
    • Rayonier (RYN) announces that David Nunes will be retiring as Chief Executive Officer and a member of the Board.
    • ReposiTrak (TRAK) moves from NASDAQ to NYSE this morning.
    • Smith & Nephew (SNN) appoints John Rogers as CFO.
  • Buyback Announcements or News: 
    • Chord Energy (CHRD) Increases Share Repurchase Authorization to $750 million.
    • FormFactor (FORM) announces $75 million share repurchase.
    • Informatica (INFA) new $200 million share repurchase plan.
    • ING Groep (ING) reports Q3 results; announces €2.5 billion share buyback program.
    • Marathon Oil (MRO) approved increase in share repurchase authorization to $2.5 billion as of Nov. 1. (see Dividend)
    • MYR Group (MYRG) announces new $75 million share repurchase program.
    • The Manitowoc Company (MTW) Announces $35 million Share Repurchase Program.
    • Primo Water (PRMW) plans to increase its $50 million share repurchase program authorization with an incremental $25 million.
    • Shell (SHEL) is commencing a $3.5 billion buyback program for the next three months.
    • Tenaris (TS) authorizes up to $1.2 billion for repurchases.
    • UPSDo Not Anticipate Further Share Repurchases In 2023.
    • Yum China (YUMC) Expands Share Repurchase Authorization by $1 Billion.
  • Stock Splits or News:
    • Jeffs’ Brands (JFBR) Announces Expected Implementation of 1-for-7 Reverse Share Split.
    • TNON trading reverse split price .
  • Dividends Announcements or News:
    • Aflac (AFL) raises Q1 dividend 19%.
    • American Financial (AFG) declares $1.50 per share special dividend, payable November 22, 2023.
    • California Resources  (CRC) declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.31 per share.
    • Chimera Investment (CIM) decreases quarterly dividend to $0.11/share from $0.18 per share.
    • ConocoPhillips (COP) increases ordinary dividend by 14%.
      Delek US Holdings (DK) increases quarterly cash dividend to $0.24 per share from $0.235 per share.
    • Enact Holdings (ACT) announces a special dividend of $113 million, or $0.16 per share payable on Dec 5.
    • Laureate Education (LAUR) announces a special cash dividend of $0.70 per common share.
    • Marathon Oil (MRO) Announced 10% quarterly base dividend increase to $0.11 per share.
    • Park Hotels & Resorts (PK) declares special dividend of $0.77 per share.
    • PBF Energy (PBF) increases quarterly dividend by 25%.
  • Insider Sales Of Note: None of note.

What’s Happening This MorningFutures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 +22Dow Jones +114,  NASDAQ +144, and Russell 2000 +18.  (as of 8:05 a.m. EDT).  Asia is higher as is Europe this morning. VIX Futures are at 17.05 from 18.23 yesterday.  GoldSilver and Copper higher this morning. WTI Crude Oil  and Brent Crude Oil are higher with Natural Gas lower. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 4.709% from 4.901% yesterday. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower versus the Pound and lower against the YenBitcoin is at $35,383 from $34,388.23 yesterday, higher by 2.41%.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Communication Services, Technology, Utilities, Consumer Cyclical, Financial, Basic Materials, Real Estate of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: None of note.
  • One Month Winners: None of note.
  • Three Month Winners: None of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Communication Services, Technology, Energy of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, and Consumer Cyclical of note.
  • Year to Date Winners:  Communication Services, Technology, Consumer Cyclical of note.

Many investors on Wednesday looked to the Federal Reserve for hints about whether this autumn’s unusual ascent in Treasury yields would help finish America’s inflation fight. The central bank’s message: maybe.   In the tug of war between low-risk government debt and higher-risk equities, that was enough of a signal to push stocks higher Wednesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.7%, or 222 points, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite added 1.6%. The S&P 500 increased 1.1%, led by the information-technology and communication services sectors.   Major indexes have logged three straight monthly declines as a run-up in Treasury yields drew investors to bonds’ roughly 5% returns. That dynamic flipped at least momentarily Wednesday.  Benchmark 10-year yields began slipping after the Treasury Department said that it would boost the size of long-term U.S. debt auctions in the coming months by less than Wall Street anticipated.  (WSJ – edited by QPI)

 

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Thursday After the Close:

  • Friday Before the Open:

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: PBF +1.76, REGN +0.86, CNQ +0.85, ALE +0.84, MSGS +0.68, PH +0.64, WCC +0.63, ATHM +0.61, FUN +0.45, LPG +0.44, ACIW +0.40, TFX +0.37, TAP +0.36, DINO +0.36, ITCI +0.32, GOLF +0.30, HII +0.29, LLY +0.28, CVE +0.27, WLK +0.23, BCE +0.22, TNK +0.21, RACE +0.21, AMR +0.19, CYBR +0.19, ROCK +0.19, MUR +0.17, EPAM +0.17, SPGI +0.17, ROK +0.17, STRA +0.16, DFH +0.15, LNTH +0.15, CROX +0.15, SEE +0.14, PWR +0.13, MCRB +0.13, BR +0.12, H +0.11, BRKR +0.11, BHC +0.11, ITT +0.10, HAE +0.10, SO +0.10, SBUX +0.09, FOXA +0.09, NVRI +0.09, SHOP +0.09, ESNT +0.09, IDA +0.09, CI +0.09, ENTG +0.08, AUPH +0.08, SHAK +0.08, APTV +0.07, ICE +0.07, AEP +0.07, AGIO +0.06, FLWS +0.06, PGTI +0.06, MGPI +0.06, COP +0.06, PRMW +0.06, DLX +0.05, ADT +0.05, BCRX +0.05, GOLD +0.05, COR +0.05, VIRT +0.04, UPBD +0.04, BWA +0.04, GEL +0.04, DT +0.04, CMI +0.03, ALGM +0.03, HWM +0.03, IMOS +0.03, GIL +0.03, SRC +0.03, OGE +0.03, KTB +0.03, LSPD +0.03, APG +0.03, BALL +0.03, WEN +0.02, ATI +0.02, WMS +0.02, BDC +0.02, DUK +0.02, PBI +0.02, PLTR +0.01, XRAY +0.01, NTCT +0.01, BAX +0.01, MAR +0.01 of note.
  • Flat: SABR +0.00, DNOW +0.00, TRN +0.00, AVNT +0.00, EXC +0.00, IRM +0.00, PBH +0.00, ZTS +0.00, JLL +0.00 of note.
  • Misses: MRNA (7.60), LAMR (5.35), PENN (5.17), LNG (1.39), NRG (1.14), CWEN (0.60), CIGI (0.46), KRTX (0.43), BBIO (0.29), CARS (0.28), KYMR (0.26), OGN (0.18), SIX (0.14), MD (0.11), PTON (0.10), THRY (0.09), RCM (0.08), TPX (0.04), PZZA (0.04), INMD (0.03), IONS (0.02), SRCL (0.02), LANC (0.02), AHH (0.01), HEP (0.01) of note.
  • Still to Report: ALGT, ALNY, ARW, FSS, GERN, NSIT, IDCC, ITRI, DRS, MDU, OMCL, PCRX, PARA, PNW, PTLO, PPL, SNDR, SWI, TGH, UNIT of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: TTMI, CDAY, FTDR, NNN, QRVO, QCOM, ATRC, ROKU, ELF, EA, MDLZ, EXAS, SMCI, NARI, GKOS, PK, RELY, FROG, CORT, FARO, HST, IR, PRCT, LMND, SIMO, EPAM, CI, OGE, WCC, ALE, DT, COR, TFX, ITT, IRM, PWR, TRN, BCE, ROK, PBI, BAX, LSPD, SPGI, MGPI, ROCK, CMI, SBUX, RACE, UPBD of note.
  • Negative Guidance: FORM, ABNB, SEDG, PTC, BMRN, ZG, PYPL, RRX, DXC, CFLT, ALB, BXP, REZI, ANSS, CW, CCRN, LMAT, MKSI, NUS, NTR, ASH, NVRO, CLB, ECVT, ENTG, XRAY, AVNT, VNT, MAR, TPX, BWA, BDC, KTB, CROX, ZTS, ALGM, PTON, INMD, CIGI, OGN, PGTI of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: JAKK 20%, ROKU 19%, LMND 17%, FSLY 17%, ELF 14%, ATUS 14%, CWAN 13%, SDGR 13%, AUDC 13%, KAR 12%, FROG 11%, DASH 11%, FARO 11%, TS 11%, CLX 10%, MIR 10%, KOD 10%, MOD 9%, PTVE 9%, PHAT 8%, MTW 8%, SMCI 8%, RSI 8%, RPD 8%, HLF 7%, ATRC 7%, SBUX 7%, PYPL 7%, PBPB 7%, CDNA 7%, JOBY 7%, SIMO 7%, ALKT 7%, ACLS 7%, SNN 6%, QCOM 6%, EA 5%, CWH 5%, CHRW 5%, AUPH 5%, INVA 5%, GFL 5%, INFA 5%, CAR 4%, DBRG 4%, NVRO 4%, EPAM 4%, CNQ 4%, ABCL 4%, EGHT 4%, HCC 4%, SCI 4% of note.
  • Gap Down: CFLT -34%, RELY -24%, PCOR -21%, TNDM -18%, SEDG -18%, CCRN -16%, NVST -13%, RVLV -13%, STAA -12%, TENB -11%, WSC -11%, ANSS -10%, QNST -10%, HPP -7%, NUS -7%, RGR -7%, ASH -6%, RUN -6%, VAC -6%, LNC -5%, PRLD -5%, VSTO -5%, ETSY -4%, NARI -4%, FDMT -4%, ALB -4%, LMAT -4% of note.

Insider Action: No stock sees Insider buying with dumb short selling. HHH sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & MagsRepeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Five Things You Need To Know Before You Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • 5 Things To Know Before The Stock Market Opens. (CNBC)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story:  Powell hints that Fed is done with hikes in pivot cheered by markets. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Shared Story JP Morgan seeks out a partner to accelerate its private credit push. (Bloomberg)
  • Stocks, Bonds gain on hope rate hikes are near end: Market Wrap. (Bloomberg)
  • Bank of England leaves rates at 15 year high. (Bloomberg)
  • President Biden says Israel and Hamas should pause for hostage release. (Bloomberg)
  • Walt Disney (DIS) will buy the rest of Hulu from Comcast (CMCSA) for $8.6 billion. (CNBC)
  • Eli Lilly (LLY) beats estimates but slashes profit outlook. (CNBC)
  • Peloton (PTON) plunges on wider than expected loss, tepid holiday forecast. (CNBC)
  • Starbucks (SBUX) beats on top and bottomline as consumer spend on expensive drinks. (CNBC)
  • Moderna (MRNA) takes a $1.3 billion write down on unused Moderna shots. (CNBC)
  • Roku (ROKU) soars 18% on third quarter beat. (CNBC)
  • NPR Morning Report Marketplace:   What the war means for Gaza’s already suffering economy. (Podcast)
  • NY Times The Daily:  The many missed warnings before Maine’s mass shooting. (Podcast)
  • BBC Global News:  Hundreds of foreigners leave Gaza. (Podcast
  • Bloomberg: Odd Lots: The future of fund management with DFA’s Gerard O’Reilly. (Podcast

Moving Average Update:

  • Score jumps 48% from 20%.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President holds a bilateral meeting with President Luis Abinader of the Dominican Republic, 12:00 p.m. EDT
    • Press Briefing by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre and NSC Coordinator for Strategic Communications John Kirby, 1:30 p.m. EDT
    • The President holds a bilateral meeting with President Gabriel Boric of Chile, 2:45 p.m. EDT

Economic:

  • Challenger Job Cut 7:30 a.m. EDT
  • Initial Jobless Claims 8:30 a.m. EDT
  • Productivity and Costs 8:30 a.m. EDT
  • September Factory Orders is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall to 1.0% from 1.2%.
  • EIA natural Gas Report 10:30 a.m. EDT

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:  

  • No Fed Speakers Scheduled

M&A Activity and News:

  • Blue Water Biotech (BWV) Signs Non-Binding Term Sheet to Acquire a Commercial Stage Oncology Company.
  • Cars.com Inc. (CARS) Acquires D2C Media Inc., Expanding Cars Commerce Platform into Canada in Accretive Transaction.
  • Ford Motor (F) buying Auto Motive Power. (TechCrunch)
  • LimFlow Announces Agreement to Be Acquired by Inari Medical (NARI).
  • SiTime (SITM) acquires Clock Products from Aura Semiconductor in an all-cash transaction, comprised of fixed payments totaling $148 million, and earnouts capped at $120 million.
  • Topgolf Callaway (MODG) Acquires Bigshots Golf, Strengthening Its Leadership In Off-course Golf.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences: None of note.
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • None of note.
  • Top Shareholder Meetings: ACAX, CANO, TPR
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: ALPN, FMST, HRI, PG, REE, SBUX, STZ
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event:
    • Verizon (VZ) Small Business Digital Ready Summit.
  • Industry Meetings:
    • American Academy of Ophthalmology
    • American Society of Nephrology
    • ATTR Amyloidosis Meeting
    • BancAnalysts Association of Boston
    • Connective Tissue Oncology Society
    • Kidney Week
        • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

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