The Daily Briefing For November 17th: Lots Of Fed Speak

Overnight Summary: Another quiet session overnight. China was up 0.4% while Japan fell -0.4%. Europe is pretty quiet as well but the FTSE is lower as the UK reported a hot inflation number with CPI coming in at 3.4%. S&P 500 is down -1 with an overnight range of 10 points.

Earnings Out After The Close:

• Beats: LZB +0.12, VREX +0.08, DLB +0.02
• Flat: None
• Misses: AVDX (0.57), STNE (0.17), DLO (0.01)

Capital Raises:

• IPOs Priced or News:
  • AvidXchange (AVDX) announces a partial early lock-up release
  • Braze (BRZE) Prices 8M Share IPO priced at $65
  • Iris Energy (IREN) 8.27M Share IPO priced at $28.00
  • Nabors Energy Transition Corp. (NETC.U): Pricing of Upsized $240,000,000 Initial Public Offering.. Priced @$10
  • Sono Motors (SEV) 10M share IPO priced at $15.00
• New SPACs launched: None of note.
• Secondaries Priced:
  • EYPT 4.03M shares Secondary priced at $13.75
  • VRAY 12.5M shares Secondary priced at $5.60
  • PSTL 4.25M shares Secondary priced at $17
  • CUBE 13.% shares Secondary priced at $51
  • NCLH 46.8M shares Secondary priced at $23.64
  • SEMR  5.5M share Secondary priced
• Notes Priced of note:
  • VERI prices $175M of 1.75% Convertible Senior Notes
  • U prices $1.5B of 0% Convertible Senior Notes
• Common Stock filings/Notes:
  • CYTH: Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock.. Maxim Bookmanager
  • EYPT: Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock.. $100.0 million of shares of its common stock.. Cowen and Guggenheim Bookmanager
  • KRNT: Launch of Public Offering of Ordinary Shares.. 2,205,701 ordinary shares Citi, BCS, GS and MS Bookmanagers
  • LPSN: Filed Form S-3ASR..2,414,804 Shares of Common Stock
  • NCLH: Pricing of 46,858,854 Ordinary Shares .. Priced @$23.64
  • NOG: Public Offering of Common Stock.. 10,000,000 shares.. MS Bookmanager
  • PSTL
  • SEMR
  • VERB
  • VRAY: Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock.. Piper Bookmanager
  • VCTR: Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock ..4M Shares of Common Stock
• Pricing of Over-Allotment: None of note.
• Direct Offering:
  • NFGC
• Selling Shareholders of note:
  • ROVR: Launch of Secondary Offering.. 11M Shares .. MS, GS and JPM Bookmanager
  • NKLA: Filed Form S-1.. 29,042,827 Shares Common Stock to be sold by Tumim Stone Capital LLC
  • ALHC: Filed Form S-1 8M Common Stock Launch of Secondary Offering
  • ECVT: Secondary Offering of 12,500,000 Shares of Common Stock.. Citi, DB and CS Bookmanagers
  • PRVA: Secondary Offering.. 6,000,000 shares GS and JPM Bookmanager
  • UWMC: Secondary Offering and Concurrent Stock Repurchase 50M .. JPM and BAC Bookmanager by SFS Holding Corp
• Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
• Mixed Shelf Offerings:
  • OSK: Filed Form S-3ASR.. Mixed Shelf Offering
  • BLBD: Filed Form S-3.. $200,000,000 Mixed Shelf
  • CYTO: Filed Form F-3.. $79,177,160 Mixed Shelf
  • KRG: Filed Form S-3ASR.. Mixed Sehlf
  • LXU: Filed Form S-3.. $200Million Mixed Shelf
• Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: 
  • Stem (STEM) to issue $350 million of Convertible Senior Notes due 2028
  • Arrival (ARVL) to issue $200 million of Convertible Senior Notes due 2026
• Note Offerings Filed: 
  • CURO Group Holdings Corp. (CURO) to Offer $225 Million of Senior Secured Notes
  • THC: Pricing of its $1.450 Billion Private Offering of Senior Secured Notes
  • Unity (U) Announces Pricing of $1.5 Billion Offering of Convertible Senior Notes
  • Veritone (VERI) Announces Upsize and Pricing of $175 Million Offering of Convertible Senior Notes
  • HTZ offers $1.5 billion of Senior Unsecured Notes due in 2026 and a private offering in 2029

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close:

• After Hours: 
  • Trading Up: VREX +8%, LZB +7%, ODP +3
  • Trading Down: AVIR -10%, ECVT -9%, ALHC -7%, AVDX -7%, DLO -7%, DLB -5%, VRAY -5%, STEM -5%, ROVR -5%, NOG -5%, PRVA – 4%, KRNT -4%, EYPT -4%, ONON -3%

• News Items:
  • U.S. Treasury’s Yellen extends debt limit default deadline prediction to Dec. 15 from Dec. 3 (Reuters)
  • President Biden’s vaccine mandate legal battle heads to federal appeals court with GOP-appointed majority (CNBC)
  • Senate aims to pass Biden’s social spending plan before Christmas, Schumer says (CNBC)
  • President Biden: U.S. Not Going To Change Policy On Taiwan
  • The F.D.A. plans to authorize Pfizer-BioNTech (PFE BNTX) boosters for all adults as soon as Thursday. (New York Times)
  • Federal Reserve San Francisco President Mary Daly: stock-price euphoria reflects post-pandemic hopes (Reuters)
  • A new Big Three? Rivian (RIVN) and Lucid’s (LCID) valuations are accelerating past Ford (F), General Motors (GM) (Market Watch)
  • Uber (UBER) revamps ride share offerings
  • GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) wins $650 million Army contract and also gets $1 billion of its Covid-19 treatment purchased by U.S. Government
• Stock Split: None of note.
• 13F Filing:
• Exchange/Listing News:
  • Brooks Automation (BRKS ) to change name to “Azenta”; to trade under symbol “AZTA” starting December 1
  • Youdao (DAO) to be Added to MSCI China All Shares Small Cap Index
  • UP Fintech Holding Limited (TIGR) to be Added to the MSCI China Small Cap Index
  • SGOCO (SGOC) changes symbol to TROO
• Buyback Announcements:
  • The ODP Corporation (ODP) Announces $150 Million Accelerated Share Repurchase and $150 Million Increase in Its Existing Stock Repurchase Plan
  • Lowes (LOW) Plans To Buy Back About $3 Billion In Stock In 4Q
  • Gates  Industrial (GTES) authorized $200 million of ordinary shares
  • MT to buyback $1 billion
• Dividends Announcements:
  • HP Inc. (HPQ)
  • Insteal Industries (IIIN)
  • MGYR: Magyar Bancorp, Inc. Announces Special Cash Dividend
  • M&T Bank (MTB)
  • Realty Income (O)
  • Royal Gold (RGLD)
  • SS&C Techs (SSNC)
  • TrustCo Bank Corp NY (TRST)

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 -3.5 Dow Jones Industrial Average -43 NASDAQ +1.48 Russell 2000 -12.22. Asia and Europe mixed. VIX is at 19.98 unchanged in futures from yesterday. Gold and silver higher with copper lower. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures lower. Natural Gas is lower as well. $ is lower vs China, higher vs Aussie Dollar and lower vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury price is at $130.11 from $130.41 with yields at 1.644% from 1.613% yesterday morning. Bitcoin at $60,295 from $60,093 yesterday morning up 1.17% in early morning trading. As of 8:25 a.m. EST.

Tuesday’s Action – 11/16 Close:  

• Daily Positive Sectors: Consumer Cyclical, Technology, Healthcare of note.
• Daily Negative Sectors: Basic Materials, Utilities, Real Estate, Consumer Defensive, Communication Services of note.
• One Month Winners: Consumer Cyclical, Technology, Industrials of note.
• Three Month Winners: Energy, Consumer Cyclical, and Technology of note.
• Six Month Winners: Technology Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical of note.
• Twelve Month Winners: Energy, Financials and Technology of note.
• Year to Date Winners: Energy, Technology, and Communication Services  of note.

Stocks ended up with strength in Technology.  UNG only able to muster “just” 2% gain. Updated 11/16 Close.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

• Wednesday After the Close: NVDA, CSCO, CPRT, ZTO, BBWI, TTEK, HP, KLIC, CPA of note.
• Thursday Before the Open: BABA, JD, J, M, BERY, KSS, VIPS, AZEK, MMS, ATHM, ATKR, NJR, SR, BRC, CSIQ, PLCE of note.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

• Beats: BIDU +1.82, LOW +0.38, MTOR +0.31, TGT +0.22, BILI +0.10, MANU +0.10, IQ +0.09, TJX +0.03
• Flat: none
• Misses: BV (0.03), VTEX (0.02)
• Still to Report: none

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart: Updated through 11/16 close.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

• • Gap Up: EYPT +11%, LZB +8%, VREX +8%, NVMI +5%, SVM +3%, ODP +3%, IIIN +3%
  • Gap Down: AVIR -14%, DLO -12%, VRAY -11%, NOG -10%, ECVT -10%, BILI -8%, ALHC -7%, DLB -7%, GSM -7%, KRNT -6%, ROVR -5%, VERB -5%, AVDX -5%, IQ -4%, STEM -3%

Insider Action:  BSX, DBD, ATUS sees Insider buying with dumb short selling and ALTO has smart short sellers with insider buys. 11/12 close

Rags & Mags: Highlighted Stories may be clicked through to the original story.  Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”.

• Five Things To Know To Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
• Stocks Making The Biggest Moves: LOW, TGT, GSK-GB  (CNBC)
• Five Things To Know This Morning (CNBC)
• Covid-19 cases are now back above 150,191 cases from 134,072 a week ago. (CDC)
• Mortgage refinance demand continues its freefall, as interest rates rise again (CNBC)
• President Biden heads to Detroit to tout U.S. investment in electric vehicle market TSLA GM F LCID RIVN FSR NIO
• Target (TGT) beats estimate but stock price falls as the company is not raising prices. (CNBC)
• Goldman CEO Calls China, Hong Kong Covid-19 Policies a ‘Headwind for Global Talent’ (Wall Street Journal)
• Staples Center in Los Angeles  to be renamed Crypto.com Arena (Reuters)
• Pfizer (PFE) Announces Retirement of Chief Financial Officer Frank D’Amelio
• Viacom (VIAC) to sell CBS Studio in California for $1.8 billion. (WSJ)
• Amazon (AMZN) to stop accepting Visa (V) card that originated in the UK due to transaction fees. (Bloomberg)
• Robinhood looks at Lucid (LCID) as it wins “car of the year” and passes Ford (F) in market cap. Walmart (WMT) has 11.5% more inventory than a year ago.

Moving Average Update:

• Score improves to 93% from 86%. Updated 11/16 close.

Geopolitical: 

• President’s Public Schedule:
  • The President and The Vice President receive the President’s Daily Brief, 10:00 a.m. EST
  • Press Briefing by White House COVID-19 Response Team and public health officials, 11:00 a.m. EST
  • The President departs the White House en route Detroit, Michigan, 12:30 p.m. EST
  • The President visits General Motors’ Factory ZERO electric vehicle assembly plant, 3:05 p.m. EST
  • The President delivers remarks on how the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law creates a future made in America and builds electric vehicle charging stations across the country, 4:30 p.m. EST
  • The President departs Detroit, Michigan en route Joint Base Andrews, 5:40 p.m. EST
  • The President arrives at the White House, 7:20 p.m. EST

Economic: 

• MBA Mortgage Applications  were out at 7:00 a.m. EST and fell -2.8%. 
• October Housing Starts are due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and are expected to rise to 1,590,000 from 1,555,000.
• EIA Petroleum Report 10:30 a.m. EST

Federal Reserve Speakers:

• Federal Reserve New York President John Williams 9:10 a.m. EST
• Federal Reserve Board of Governor Michelle Bowman 11:00 a.m. EST
• Federal Reserve Cleveland President Loretta Mester 11:20 a.m. EST
• Federal Reserve San Francisco President Mary Daly 12:40 p.m. EST
• Federal Reserve Board of Governor Christopher Waller 12:40 p.m. EST
• Federal Reserve Chicago President Charles Evans 4:05 p.m. EST

M&A Activity: 

• nCino (NCNO) Signs Definitive Agreement to Acquire SimpleNexus for $1.2 billion
• Nova Measuring (NVMI) to buy ancosys GmbH for $100 million in cash
• Oportun Financial (OPRT) to acquire Digit
• CURO Group Holdings Corp (CURO) To Acquire Heights Finance, A Leading Consumer Finance Company, For $360 Million
• Bentley Systems (BSY) buys Power Line Systems for $700 million

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

• Sellside Conferences:
  • Baird’s Government & Defense Conference 2021
  • Bank of America Consumer and Retail Conference 2021 (11/17-11/18)
  • Bank of America Securities Global Energy Conference 2021 (11/17-11/18)
  • Bank of America Supply Chain Conference 2021
  • Barclays Global Automotive and Mobility Tech Conference 2021 (11/17-11/18)
  • Citi Fintech Conference 2021 (11/15-11/18)
  • Cowen 5th Annual IO Next Virtual Summit 2021 (11/15-11/17)
  • Deutsche Bank Depositary Receipts Virtual Investor Conference / dbVIC 2021 (11/16-11/17)
  • Deutsche Bank Industrials Conference 2021 (11/16-11/17)
  • Goldman Sachs Global Metals & Mining Conference 2021 (11/17-11-18)
  • Jefferies 12th Annual London Global Healthcare Conference 2021 (11/15-11/19)
  • Jefferies West Coast Consumer Conference 2021 (11/16-11/17)
  • Morgan Stanley European Technology, Media & Telecom Conference 2021 (11/17-11/19)
  • Morgan Stanley 20th Annual Asia Pacific Summit 2021 (11/17-11/19)
  • Needham Networking, Communications & Security Conference 2021 (11/15-11/18)
  • Needham 3rd Annual Virtual Big Data & Infrastructure Software Conference 2021
  • Piper Sandler: Battery Summit 2021
  • RBC Capital Markets 15th Annual Global Mining & Materials Conference 2021 (11/16-11/17)
  • RBC Capital Markets Global Technology, Internet, Media and Telecommunications (TIMT) Conference 2021 (11/16-11/17)
  • RBC Capital Markets Midstream Energy Infrastructure Conference 2021 (11/16-11/17)
  • ROTH Capital 10th Annual Technology and Inaugural AgTech Answers Virtual Event 2021 (11/16-11/18)
  • Stifel Virtual Healthcare Conference 2021 (11/15-11/17)
  • UBS Virtual Industrial Tech and Innovation Conference 2021
  • Wolfe Research Healthcare Conference 2021 (11/17-11/18)
• Company Meetings: CLX
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
• Investor/Analyst Day: ACIW, AGIO, ATR, CRTV, JNJ, PINC, PRMW, ROCK, SOLO, WOLF
• Update: None of note.
• R&D Day: None of note.
• Conference Call: None of note.
• Company Event:
  • Lattice (LSCC) Webinar on Low Power Edge AI/ML Development With sensAI Solution Stack 2021
  • Qualys Inc (QLYS) Security Conference 2021
  • Roche (RHHBY) Virtual Event Digitalization along the value chain
• Industry Meetings:
  • American College of Toxicology 42nd Annual Meeting 2021 (11/10-11/19)
  • American Association of Gynecologic Laparoscopists (AAGL) 50th Global Congress 2021 (11/14-11/17)
  • Association for Molecular Pathology (AMP) Annual Meeting & Expo 2021 (11/16-11/20)
  • Vaccine World Asia Congress & Global COVID-19 Vaccine Manufacturing & Supply Chain Summit (virtual conference) 2021 (11/17-11/18)
  • Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) Convention 2021 (11/17-11/18)
  • Construction Owner’s Association of America COAA 2021 Fall Leadership Roundtable (11/17-11/19)

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Tuesday’s Upgrades and Downgrades: