The Daily Briefing For November 16th: Stocks Modestly Lower On Earnings beats But Poor Guidance

by Geoff Garbacz | 11/16/2023 8:57 AM

Rebel Yell Morning Market Report

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The Daily Briefing For November 16th: Stocks Modestly Lower On Earnings beats But Poor Guidance

Overnight SummaryThe S&P 500 closed Wednesday higher by 0.18% at 4502.88 from Tuesday higher by 1.91% at 4495.70. The overnight high was hit at 4521.50 at 4:25 a.m. EST while the low was hit at 4507 at 9:10 p.m. EST. The range overnight was 15 points as of 7:05 a.m. EST. The 10-day average of the overnight range is at 15.20 from 15.90.  The average for May-October average was 22.06 from 20.96. Currently, the S&P 500 is higher by 1 points which is  0.02% at 7:05 a.m. EST.

Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats: CPA +0.63, TTEK +0.34, PANW +0.22, MMS +0.16, SONO +0.11, HI +0.09, CSCO +0.08, KLIC +0.08, JJSF +0.01 of note.
  • Flat: none of note.
  • Misses: MAXN (1.30), SQM (0.35) of note.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News: None of note.
  • Secondaries Priced:
    • AUGX: Announces prices offering of 6.25 shares of common stock at $4.00 per share.
    • SKWD: Prices follow-on offering of 5.0 million shares of common stock at $30.50 per share.
    • SQSP: Announces prices secondary offering of 6.0 million shares of common stock by selling shareholder General Atlantic.
  • Notes Priced of note:
    • AEE: Announces Pricing of Senior Notes due 2026.
    • CAR: Announces pricing of $500 million of senior notes.
    • CARR: Announces Pricing of $3.0 Billion and €2.35 Billion Notes.
    • GLPI: Announces Pricing of $400,000,000 of 6.750% Senior Notes Due 2033.
    • NBR: Prices $650 Million in Senior Priority Guaranteed Notes.
    • TPR: Prices United States Dollar-Denominated Senior Unsecured Notes Offering.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • AUGX: Announces proposed public offering of 5.5 million shares of common stock.
    • OVID: Filed Form 424B5.. $75,000,000 Common Stock.
    • PXLW: Filed Form S-3.. $25,000,000 Common Stock.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • DRS: Files for 16,500,000 shares of common stock by selling shareholder.
    • SQSP: Announces secondary offering of 6 million Class A common stocks by General Atlantic.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • ACGL: Files mixed shelf securities offering.
    • WEST: Files $500 million mixed shelf securities offering.
  • Debt/Credit Filing and Notes:
    • SEE: Announces Expiration and Results of Offer to Purchase 5.125% Senior Notes due 2024.
  • Tender Offer: None of note.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed:
    • CETY: Announces Conversion of $1.95 Million Notes Payable to Equity.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close :

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: MMS +5%, CPA +4% of note.
    • Trading Down:  VLD -24%, AUGX -21%, CSCO -11%, MAXN -6%, GAMB -6%, PANW -5%, VNET -5%, ESTC -4%, SQM -4% of note.
  • News Items After the Close:
    • Stocks making the biggest moves after the bell: CSCO, PANW, MAXN (CNBC)
    • Biden and Xi Strike Deals on Military Communications, Fentanyl, AI. (Bloomberg)
    • Cisco (CSCO) Plunges After Corporate Spending Slump Hurts Forecast. (Bloomberg)
    • Forecast sinks Palo Alto Networks’ (PANW) stock despite ‘unprecedented level’ of cybersecurity attacks. (MarketWatch)
    • General Motors (GM): UAW deal facing opposition from longstanding employees, (NY Times)
    • The Elusive Soft Landing Is Coming Into View. (WSJ)
    • Robinhood Markets (HOOD) reports October 2023 operating data; Assets Under Custody at end of October down 2% from September.
    • MSFT We are raising our price target on Microsoft from $400 to $425 reflecting incrementally positive AI customer checks with “game changing” Co-Pilot monetization now on the doorstep for MSFT into 2024. We maintain our OUTPERFORM and MSFT is on our Top Pick List into 2024 (Dan Ives tweet)

    • PANW: Very strong results and guidance. The Billings component looks softer than the Street BUT it’s more around duration which is not a concern to us. Demand remains robust as cloud cyber tailwinds key for PANW. Seeing thru noise-one of Top Cyber plays. $290 price target. (Dan Ives tweet)
    • INTC: MIZUHO: “.. We downgraded INTC in Oct-2021 at ~$56 because we saw INTC lose focus from its core Data Center/Compute roadmap. .. We now see INTC refocused on a better 2024E DC/PC roadmap, which could drive DC/PC share gains and improve margins.” Ups to Buy, $50 target (Carl Q)


  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Delayed 10-Q Filings: VLD
    • 3D Systems (DDD) provides update on restructuring initiative.
    • AIG: Appoints Roshan Navagamuwa as Executive Vice President and Chief Information Officer.
    • ATN International (ATNI) COO Brad Martin to succeed Michael Prior as CEO, who will be transitioning to Executive Chairman, effective January 1; CFO Justin Benincasa to retire, succeeded by Carlos Doglioli.
    • Bit Brother Limited (BETS) Received Nasdaq Delisting Letter Regarding Bid Price Deficiency.
    • BXRX Delisted from NASDAQ effective 11/16/2023 will trade on OTC.
    • First Bank (FBNC) announces strategic leadership changes.
    • Primo Water (PRMW) appoints Robbert Rietbroek as CEO.
    • SmartRent (SMRT) appoints Daryl Stemm as CFO.
    • Stratasys (SSYS) Announces Changes to Board of Directors.
    • SoundHound AI (SOUN) discloses material weakness in 10-Q filing.
    • Tutor Perini (TPC) appointed CFO Gary Smalley to the position of President.
    • USD Partners LP (USDP) Announces Suspended NYSE Trading, Anticipates Trading Will Begin On the OTC Exchange Effective November 16, 2023.
  • Buyback Announcements or News: 
    • Global Blue (GB) entered into a share purchase and investment agreement
    • M/I Homes (MHO) approves an increase in its share repurchase authorization by additional $100 million.
    • Sonos (SONO) authorizes common stock repurchase program of up to $200 million.
    • Yum China (YUMC) announces 2024 share repurchase programs in the U.S. and Hong Kong for $750 million.
  • Stock Splits or News: None of note.
  • Dividends Announcements or News: 
    • Agilent (A) increases its quarterly dividend 5% to $0.236 per share; 0.8% annual yield.
    • Berry Global (BERY) declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.275 per share, a 10% increase from the previous dividend amount.
    • Kulicke & Soffa (KLIC) increases quarterly cash dividend to $0.20 per share from $0.19 per share.
    • Matthews (MATW) increases quarterly cash dividend $0.24 per share from $0.23 per share.
    • NTES cuts dividend by about 6% to $0.495 per ADS.
    • PulteGroup (PHM) increases quarterly cash dividend by 25% to $0.20 per share.
    • Universal Insurance (UVE) declares a special dividend of $0.13 per share.
    • WesBanco Inc (WSBC) increases quarterly cash dividend 2.9% to $0.36 per share from $0.35 per share.
  • Insider Sales Of Note: None of note.

What’s Happening This MorningFutures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 -6Dow Jones -75,  NASDAQ -44, and Russell 2000 -10.  (as of 7:55 a.m. EST).  Asia is lower ex South Korea and Europe is lower ex Germany this morning. VIX Futures are at 15.35 from 15.77  yesterday.  Gold, Silver and Copper higher this morning for a second day in a row. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Crude Oil are lower with Natural Gas higher. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 4.498% from 4.463% yesterday. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher versus the Pound and lower against the YenBitcoin is at $37,261 from $36,177 yesterday, lower by -0.77% this morning.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Communication Services, Consumer Defensive, Financial, Consumer Cyclical, Real Estate of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Energy of note.
  • One Month Winners: Technology, Consumer Defensive, Consumer Cyclical and Financials of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Technology and Communication Services of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Energy, Consumer Cyclical of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Communication Services, Technology, Consumer Cyclical and Industrials of note.
  • Year to Date Winners:  Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical and Industrials of note.

Growing evidence of a gradually cooling economy helped push stocks higher once again Wednesday.   The S&P 500 rose 0.2%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gained 0.1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.5%, or around 164 points. Seven of the 11 sectors within the S&P 500 closed higher.  The major indexes have risen sharply so far this week, prompted by growing investor confidence that the Federal Reserve can achieve a so-called soft landing, a scenario where inflation drops but the economy avoids a significant contraction.  (WSJ – edited by QPI)

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Thursday After the Close:

  • Friday Before the Open:

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: BABA +0.35, M +0.21, BERY +0.14, BBWI +0.13, DOLE +0.13, NICE +0.12, ARCO +0.06, BRC +0.05, WMG +0.03, WMT +0.01, SSYS +0.01 of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: PLCE (0.27), SCVL (0.17), BV (0.16), SR (0.14) of note.
  • Still to Report: WSM of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: DAVA of note.
  • Negative Guidance: SONO, MAXN, KLIC, CSCO, HI, BBWI, SCVL, BERY, SSYS of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: NICE +5%, CRSP +5%, MMS +5%, CPA +5%, HI +4%, BORR +4% of note.
  • Gap Down: AUGX -24%, VLD -16%, CSCO -11%, GAMB -6%, MAXN -5%, PANW -5%, NTES -5% of note.

Insider ActionUTZ, T sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.   No stock sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & MagsRepeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: WMT, CSCO, PANW, GT, PLUG, AAP, STNE (CNBC)
  • Five Things You Need To Know Before You Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • 5 Things To Know Before The Stock Market Opens. (CNBC)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: Biden and Xi Meeting delivers small wins and promises of better ties.  (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Shared Story: SpaceX Weighs Spinning Off Starlink Via IPO as Soon as 2024 (Bloomberg)
  • Stock rally pauses as weak earnings sour sentiment: Market Wrap. (Bloomberg)
  • Pedro Sanchez secures another term as Spain’s Prime Minister. (CNBC)
  • U.S. Senate passes bill to avoid shutdown. (Bloomberg)
  • Macy’s (M) beats estimates on inventory control. (CNBC)
  • Walmart (WMT) beats but lower on guidance about consumer spending. (CNBC)
  • Alibaba (BABA) down -8% as misses on profit, stops Cloud spinoff. (CNBC)
  • NPR Morning Report Marketplace:  Work communication tools distract from actual work. (Podcast)
  • NY Times The Daily: Biden’s electric car problem. (Podcast)
  • BBC Global News:   Israel says weapons found in Gaza hospital. (Podcast
  • Bloomberg:  Free speech has never been easier or more at risk. (Podcast) `
  • Wealthion: Investing in housing with Bill Pulte. (Podcast)

Moving Average Update:

  • Score goes to 97% from 94%.


  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing, 12:00 p.m. EST
    • The President delivers remarks at the APEC CEO Summit, 1:45 p.m. EST
    • The President participates in a family photo with APEC economies and guest economies, 3:05 p.m. EST
    • The President hosts an APEC Informal Dialogue and Working Lunch, 3:15 p.m. EST
    • The President delivers remarks and participates in the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework family photo, 6:30 p.m. EST
    • The President and The First Lady host Heads of Delegation for the APEC Dinner, 10:45 p.m. EST


  • Initial Jobless Claims 8:30 a.m. EST
    Import and Export Prices 8:30 a.m. EST
  • November Philadelphia Fed Index is due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and is expected to improve to -7.5from -9 in October.
  • October Industrial Production is due out at 9:15 a.m. EST and is expected fall to -0.4% from 0.3%.
  • November NAHB Housing Market Index is due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and is expected to remain at 40.
  • EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 a.m. EST

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:  

  • Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr 7:00 a.m. EST
  • Federal Reserve Cleveland President Loretta Mester 8:30 a.m. EST
  • Federal Reserve New York President John Williams 9:25 a.m. EST
  • Federal Reserve Board of Governors Christopher Waller 10:30 a.m. EST
  • Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr 10:35 a.m. EST
  • Federal Reserve Cleveland President Loretta Mester 12:00 p.m. EST

M&A Activity and News: 

  • NVTA: Aranscia Acquires YouScript from Invitae.
  • Elastic (ESTC) announces agreement to acquire Opster.
  • GigaCloud Technology Inc (GCT) Announces Acquisition of Wondersign.
  • Tradeweb Markets (TW) to acquire r8fin.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Canaccord Genuity Medical Technology & Diagnostics Forum
    • Craig Hallum Alpha Select Conference
    • JMP Securities Financial Services Conference
    • Raymond James FinTech Summit
    • UBS Aerospace and Defense Conference
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • Benchmark Week
        • D.A. Davidson Technology Summit 2023
        • Goldman Sachs Metals & Mining Conference
        • Jefferies London Healthcare Conference
        • J.P. Morgan Ultimate Services Investor Conference
        • Morgan Stanley European Technology Media & Telecom Conference
        • Needham Virtual SaaS Conference
        • Sidoti Micro Cap Conference
        • Stephens Investment Conference
  • Top Shareholder Meetings: AVT, CBRL, EAT, FRTX, LPTH, RHE, STEW
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: ALGS, HY, FMC, GDYN, NMIH, PWFL
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event:
    • Microsoft (MSFT) Ignite
  • Industry Meetings: None of note.
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • Society for Neuro Oncology Meeting 2023 (11/15/23-11/18/23)
        • APEC Summit
        • Blockchain & Digital Assets Summit
        • Connectivity Standards Alliance
        • LPG Forum
        • Southwest IDEAS Conference

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

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