The Daily Briefing For November 16th: Stocks Flat Into Wednesday. News Flow Continues On FTX

by Geoff Garbacz | 11/16/2022 8:51 AM

Rebel Yell Morning Market Report

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The Daily Briefing For November 16th: Stocks Flat Into Wednesday. News Flow Continues On FTX

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Tuesday at 3991.73 (higher by 0.87%) from Monday at 3957.52 (lower by -0.89%).  The overnight high of 4015.75 was hit at 3:00 a.m. EDT. The low was hit at 3980.50 at 8:35 p.m. EDT, a range of 35 points high to low which is below the recent range of 45.  At 7:00 a.m. EDT, the S&P 500 was lower by -2.75 points at 3996.75 which is -0.07%.

Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats: VREX +0.06, ALC +0.01.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: AAP (0.50).

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News:
    • Majic Wheels Corp enters definitive merger agreement with OceanTech Acquisitions I Corp (OTEC).
  • Secondaries Priced:
    • ESAB: Announces Pricing of Secondary Offering of 6,003,431 Shares Currently Held by Enovis Corporation. Priced @$40
    • NTRA: Prices offering of 11.43 million shares of common stock at $35.00 per share.
  • Notes Priced of note:
    • CCL: Announces Pricing of 5.75% Convertible Senior Notes due 2027 for Refinancing 2024 Maturities.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • ASLE: Secondary Offering of Common Stock and Concurrent Share Repurchase. 4M Shares. (Cowen RBC and Stifel Bookmanagers)
    • ACRX: Filed Form S-3.. Up to 81,150 Shares of Common Stock Issuable Upon Exercise of a Warrant.
    • DNA: Proposed Public Offering of Class A Common Stock. $100 Million.  (BTIG Bookmanager)
    • NTRA: Filed Form S-3ASR — $350,000,000 Common Stock.
    • PRVA: Secondary Offering 5 Million shares. (GS Bookmanager)
  • Pricing of Over-Allotment/Notes: None of note.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • LAUR: Commences underwritten secondary offering of 32,842,183 shares by certain existing stockholders affiliated with Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. L.P.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • BKD: Filed Form S-3ASR — Mixed Shelf.
    • DRMA: Filed Form S-3.. $100,000,000 Mixed Shelf Offering.
    • HOLX: Filed Form S-3ASR.. Mixed Shelf Offering.
    • KRT: Filed Form S-3..$150,000,000 Mixed Shelf and 2 Million Common Stock.
    • PRVA: Filed Form S-3ASR.. Mixed Shelf Offering.
    • STRC: Filed Form S-3.. $150,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
    • URGN: Filed Form S-3.. $250,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
  • Debt Filing/Notes:
    • BBBY: Announces Extension of Exchange Offers and Consent Solicitations for Certain of its Outstanding Debt Securities.
    • OKE: Announces $75.0 Million Notes Offering.
    • TMO: Prices Offering of USD-Denominated Senior Notes.
    • TXN: Prices $800 million of investment grade notes.
  • Tender Offer: None of note.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed:
    • INDI: Announces Proposed Convertible Senior Notes Offering and $50 million Repurchase Authorization.
    • WOLF: Announces Offering of $1,300 Million of Convertible Senior Notes..

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: NTRA +4%.
    • Trading Down: LVLU -14%, CCL -12%, AAP -10%, SMWB -9%, GSM -7%, DNA -6%, NVGS -4%, ASLE -4%.
  • News Since The Close:
    • Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: CCL, AAP, SAGE, DNA (CNBC).
    • Amazon (AMZN) starts cutting jobs, with layoffs hitting Alexa unit and cloud gaming division. (CNBC)
    • Intel (INTC): Jury Orders INTC To Pay $948.8 Million U.S. Jury Verdict In VLSI Computer Chip Patent Trial.
    • Disney (DIS) World to hike Magic Kingdom ticket prices to as high as $189 for entry. (NYPost)
    • Meta, Lyft, Salesforce and Other Tech Firms Dump Office Space as They Downsize. (WSJ)
    • NATO Ambassadors To Meet On Wednesday At Request Of Poland On Basis Of Alliance’s Article 4 – Two European Diplomats Say. Morning update – looks like the missiles came from Kyiv by Ukraine. (See Rags and Mags)
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Delayed 10-Q Filings: HYZN, NUTX
    • AMERCO (UHAL) to transfer of listing of common stock to the NYSE and change name to U-Haul Holding Company on December 19.
    • Aravive (ARAV) Regains Compliance with Nasdaq Minimum Bid Price Requirement.
    • Axalta Coating Systems (AXTA) appoints Chris Villavarayan as CEO and President.
    • NYSE to Suspend Trading Immediately in Securities of G&P Acquisition Corp. (GAPA) and Commence Delisting Proceedings.
    • Lulu’s (LVLU) Fashion Lounge promotes CFO Crystal Landsem to become new CEO.
    • LL Flooring (LL) Announces Chief Financial Officer Transition.
    • Membership Collective Group (MCG) announces changes to its executive leadership team.
    • Missfresh (MF) Regains Compliance with Nasdaq Periodic Filing Requirement.
    • The Pennant Group (PNTG) Reorganizes Executive Team.
    • Restaurant Brands Int’l (QSR) appoints Patrick Doyle as Executive Chairman. Doyle ran Dominos and turned it into a giant from 2010 to 2018.
    • Teradyne (TER) Announces CEO Succession.
    • Vinco Ventures (BBIG) Appoints Richard Levychin, CPA, CGMA to its Board of Directors for Governance and Leadership.
  • Buyback Announcements or News:
    • Discover Financial Services (DFS) resumes repurchases under its existing share repurchase program authorizing up to $4.2 billion of share repurchases.
    • Group 1 Automotive (GPI) Board Approves Share Repurchase Authorization increase by $161 million to $200 million & Announces Quarterly Cash Dividend up $0.01 to $0.39.
    • INDI: See Convertible Notes above.
    • ORLY: Board of Directors (the “Board”) approved a resolution to increase the authorization amount under its share repurchase program by an additional $1.5 billion.
    • Sundial Growers (SNDL) Announces Renewal of Share Repurchase Program.
  • Stock Splits or News: None of note.
  • Dividends Announcements or News:
    • Amkor (AMKR) Announces 50% Increase in Quarterly Cash Dividend and Shareholder Return Goal.
    • Broadmark Realty (BRMK) lowers monthly cash dividend to $0.035 per share from $0.07 per share.
    • Group 1 Automotive (GPI) – See Buyback Announcements.
    • Insteel Industries (IIIN) declares a special cash dividend of $2.00 per share.
    • NIKE, Inc. (NKE) Announces 11% Increase in Quarterly Dividend.
    • TrustCo Bank Corp NY (TRST) increases quarterly dividend by 2.9% to $0.36 per share.

What’s Happening This MorningFutures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 +64, Dow Jones +311,  NASDAQ +294,  and Russell 2000 +44. (as of 8:10 a.m. EDT)Europe lower and Asia lower ex Japan.  VIX Futures are at 24.85 from 25.60 yesterday morning and the VIX closed at 23.73 from 24 yesterday. Gold and Silver higher with Copper lower. WTI Crude Oil lower and Brent Oil Futures are higher with Natural Gas lower. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs Pound and Lower vs Yen. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 3.771% from 3.81%  yesterday. Bitcoin is at $16,825 from $16,691.37 yesterday morning and is higher by 3.49% this morning.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors:  Communication Services, Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Consumer Defensive, Energy, Real Estate of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: None of note.
  • One Month Winners:  Industrials, Basic Materials, Financial of note.
  • Three Month Winners:  Energy, Basic Materials of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Energy, Industrials, Financial of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy, Utilities of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Energy of note.

U.S. stocks rallied Tuesday after slowing increases in supplier prices offered more evidence that inflationary pressures could be easing.  The gains were broad-based, with nine of the S&P 500’s 11 sectors advancing. Stocks from technology to energy to consumer staples ended the day higher. The S&P 500 rose 34.48 points, or 0.9%, to 3991.73. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 56.22 points, or 0.2%, to 33592.92. The Nasdaq Composite jumped 162.19 points, or 1.4%, to 11358.41 as tech stocks extended their recent run.  (WSJ)

Click here for a video explanation of Erlanger Value Lines.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Wednesday After the Close: CSCO, CPRT, BBWI, HP, CPA, KLIC of note.
  • Thursday Before the Open: BABA, NTES, M, NJR, KSS, BRC, GFF, CAMT, PLCE of note.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: LOW +0.16, TGX +0.06.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: TGT (0.64), ONON (0.04), SR (0.02).
  • Still to Report: None of note.


  • Positive Guidance: AQUA, LOW of note.
  • Negative Guidance: ALC, AAP, TJX of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart: 


Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: ARDX +5%.
  • Gap Down: AAP -14%, LVLU -12%, CCL -12%, SMWB -9%, GSM -9%, NVGS -8%, DNA -6%, ASLE -5%.

Insider ActionXRAY, WW, SAGE, ESI sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  TACT sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Stocks Making The Biggest Moves: TGT, CCL, LOW, AAP, SAGE, CTVA, BABA, NTES, ETSY. (CNBC)
  • 5 Things To Know Before The Market Opens Wednesday. (CNBC)
  • Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story (The Big Take today): FTX came close to upending the Futures market. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Read Story: Trump makes 2024 Run official.  (Bloomberg)
  • NATO Chief says the Poland missile blast was from a Ukrainian missile that was misdirected as Ukraine tried to defend against over one hundred missiles hit Ukraine. (CNBC)
  • Oil Tanker hit off the Oman coast by a bomb-carrying drone. (AP)
  • U.K. Inflation is still high at 11.1% in the latest release. (CNN)
  • ECB Muller says that need another “substantial” rate hike in December. (Bloomberg)
  • Former President Donald Trump announced last night that he is running for President of the United States. (CNN)
  • Florida’s Rick Scott (R-FL) to challenge the Kentucky Gentleman aka Senator Mitch McConnell (R-KY) for the Minority Leader role. (Fox News)
  • Senate votes 62-36 to end Covid Emergency Funding. President Biden says he will veto. (WSJ)
  • NASA’s Artemis took off for its “fly me to the moon” mission which has no astronauts this time. (NYT)
  • Mortgage Applications rose 2.7% week over week. (Fox Business News)
  • 55 million Americans to travel next week for Thanksgiving. (WSJ)
  • Target (TGT) misses earnings “by a mile” making a Walmart Long/ Target Short an interesting trade. (CNBC)
  • Lowe’s (LOW) beats expectations as they hit the target. (CNBC)

Moving Average Update:

  • Score inches up 3% to 88%…again.


  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President departs Bali, Indonesia en route Guam (1:10 PM Local), 12:10 a.m. EST
    • The President arrives in Guam for a refuel stop (8:10 PM Local), 5:10 a.m. EST
    • The President departs Guam en route Honolulu, Hawaii (9:40 PM Local), 6:40 a.m. EST
    • The President arrives in Honolulu, Hawaii for a refuel stop (8:50 AM Local), 1:50 p.m. EST
    • The President departs Honolulu, Hawaii en route Joint Base Andrews (10:20 AM Local), 3:20 p.m. EST
    • The President arrives at Joint Base Andrew, 11:40 p.m. EST
    • The President arrives at the White House, 11:59 p.m. EST


  • MBA Mortgage Applications 7:00 a.m. EDT
    • U.S. MBA 30-year Mortgage Rate Actual: 6.90% Vs 7.14% Previous
    • U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications (Wow) Actual: 2.7% Vs -0.1% Previous
  • October Retail Sales are due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and expected to rise to 0.6% from 0.0%.
  • Import and Export Prices 8:30 a.m. EDT
  • October Industrial Production is due out at 9:15 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall to 0.2% from 0.4%.
  • November NAHB Housing Index is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and expected to fall to 35 from 38.
  • Business Inventories 10:00 a.m. EDT
  • EIA Petroleum Report 10:30 a.m. EDT

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:

  • Federal Reserve New York President John Williams 9:50 a.m. EST
  • Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr  10:00 a.m. EST
  • Federal Research Board of Governors Christopher Waller 2:35 p.m. EST

M&A Activity:

  • UPS Completes Acquisition of Bomi Group, Multi-National Healthcare Logistics Provider

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Bank of America Securities Global Energy Conference 2022 (11/16/22-11/17/22)
    • Bank of America Consumer & Retail Conference
    • Berenberg Pan-EU Discovery Conference USA (11/16/22-11/17/22)
    • Credit Suisse European Financials Disruption Conference 2022 (11/16/22-11/18/22)
    • Bradesco BBI CEO Forum
    • Canaccord MedTech, Diagnostics and Digital Health & Services Forum
    • ESN Meet The Future-MMWarburg Conference
    • Goldman Sachs Global Metals and Mining Conference
    • Jefferies Cybersecurity Summit
    • Jefferies Miami Euro Consumer Conference 2022 (11/16/22-11/17/22)
    • JP Morgan Ultimate Services Investor Conference
    • Morgan Stanley 21st Annual Asia Pacific Summit 2022 (11/16/22-11/18/22)
    • Needham Big Data and Infrastructure Conference 2022
    • Needham 1st Annual Virtual EdTech 1v1 Conference 2022
    • RBC Capital Markets Midstream and Energy Infrastructure Conference 2022 (11/16/22-11/17/22)
    • Seaport Chemical Cornucopia
    • Scotiabank Energy Infrastructure Conference 2022
    • Three Part Advisors Southwest IDEAS Investor Conference 2022 (11/16/22-11/17/22)
      Wells Fargo Bank Bootcamp


  • Company Meetings: CLX, ORCL, WDC.
  • Fireside Chat:
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: BC, CTV, ENSC, EPAC, EXLS, GSAT, JLL, LPLA, PACB, ROK, SMTS.
    • Texas Pacific Ltd (TPL) is a Type 1 Short Squeeze that holds their analyst meeting.
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event: None of note.
  • Industry Meetings:
    • 2022 Society for Neuro-Oncology (SNO) Annual Meeting (11/16/22-11/20/22)
    • Cervical Spine Research Society 50th Annual Meeting (11/16/22-11/19/22)
    • 2022 Connective Tissue Oncology Society (CTOS) Annual Meeting 2022 (11/16/22-11/19/22)
    • National Society of Genetic Counselors (NSGC) Annual Conference 2022 (11/16/22-11/20/22)
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • NYSE Industrials Virtual Investor Access Day 2022 (11/15/22-11/16/22) (SON, BKSY, ML, WTS, REZI, LPX, STN)
        • The 7th Special Food Congress 2022 (11/15/22-11/17/22)
        • ELECTRONICA 2022 (11/15/22-11/18/22)
        • Financial Brand Forum 2022 (11/14/22-11/16/22)
        • World Economic Forum (WEF) Annual Meeting on Cybersecurity 2022 (11/14/22-11/16/22)
        • World Orphan Drug Congress Europe 2023 (11/14/22-11/17/22)
        • Phocuswright Conference 2022 (11/14/22-11/17/22)
        • Society for Neuroscience (SfN) Annual Meeting 2022 (11/12/22-11/16/22)
        • Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC) North America 43rd Annual Meeting 2022 (11/13/22-11/17/22)

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

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