The Daily Briefing For May 15th: Futures Drop. Was Yesterday A Dead Cat Bounce?

by Geoff Garbacz | 05/15/2019 9:01 AM

Rebel Yell Morning Market Report

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The Daily Briefing For May 15th: Futures Drop. Was Yesterday A Dead Cat Bounce?

Interesting Point of Day: CNBC interview finds NY Times Columnist Tom Friedman on Trump’s side on China. Must see TV.

Corporate Actions

IPOs on deck for This Week: A very busy week with 10 IPOs this week. Hot deal of the week Fastly ( FSLY).

IPOs on deck for Today:  Postal Realty Trust (PSTL) and Bricktown Brewery Restaurants (BEER) of note.

Secondaries on deck: ALLO JKS TWNK VIRT WMC of note.

Notes Priced: WM

Other Filings of Note:  WRK STWD files mixed shelf offering.  files senior notes. SR SJR files common stock offering.

Courtesy of IPO Financial

Earnings After The Close:

Beat: NEWR +0.07, DOX +0.03, TCS +0.03, PAGS +0.03, TLRY +0.03 of note.

Flat:  None of note.

Missed: FSM (0.05), EGHT (0.01), A (0.01) of note.

Still To Report:  AMRS, ACB.

News After The Close:

Fitch notes Chinese demand for U.S. soybean is dropping.

API Petroleum Institute Inventory data saw Crude Oil build by 8.63 million barrels and Gasoline build by 0.567 million barrels.

Stock Repurchase: None of note.

Dividend Increase: NOC. 

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures on the S&P 500 bottomed at 6:00 p.m EDT and have been rising since to the morning high.

U.S. futures: S&P -13.25, Dow Jones -114 NDX -42 and Russell 2000 -8.30 with fair values  LOWER LESSENING LOSSES.  Asia mixed and Europe lower, click through for details by country.

Gold, silver and copper higher. WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures lower. Natural Gas is flat. $ is higher vs Euro, lower vs. Pound and lower vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury price $124.59 from $124.34  with yields lower since Monday morning with the yield at 2.38% from 2.419%. Prices as of 8:15 a.m. EDT.

Top Sectors Tuesday: Conglomerates, Services, Materials and Industrial Goods.

Weakest Sectors Tuesday: Utilities.

One Month Winners: Conglomerates and Utilities.

Three Month Winners:  Conglomerates, Services, Technology, Consumer Goods and Utilities.

Six Month Winners: Utilities,Technology, Services, Industrials and Conglomerates.

Twelve Month Winners: Utilities, Services, Healthcare and Conglomerates

Year to Date: All higher led by Conglomerates, Services, Industrials, Technology and Consumer Goods.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest)

Today After The Close:  CSCO NTES ZTO FTCH FLO TRG JACK VRTU of note.


Earnings This Morning Of Note 

Beat: BABA +2.07, PLCE +0.87, PPDF +0.67 M +0.10 of note.

Flat: TSEM.

Missed: ERJ (0.18), TSG (0.05)CVET (0.04) RUBY -.01 of note.

Still To Report:   None of note.

Rags & Mags: Highlighted Stories may be clicked through to the original story.

Top Story: Nonemergency staff are ordered to leave the Iraq embassy over tension with Iran. (WSJ)

Five Things You Need To Know To Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)

President Trump will not pull back from China Trade deal. (The Washington Post)

Chinese retail sales, industrial production and investment all missed expectations. (Bloomberg)

China is running out of retaliatory options against the U.S. (Reuters)

President Trump is expected to sign an Executive Order outlawing Huawei in the U.S. as a national security risk. (Reuters)

Intel (INTC) reviews new chip security flaw. (FT)

Boeing (BA) Pilots pressured the company to ground the 737 Airmax. (NYT)

Data Points

No changes of note.

Yesterday saw 2209  stocks rise and 688 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 2240 rise and 852 fall. A nice bounce from Monday.

The QPI10 Day Moving Average of Breadth (10DMA) is no longer  invested  and moved to cash with Wednesday close. For a move to cash from buy, the 10DMA needed to have two days in row below -200 and that happened on Wednesday’s close. For now, the best offense is a good defense.

Courtesy of Quantitative Partners, Inc.

YTD 76% (-3% week over week) of stocks are higher and 24% are lower. Updated 5/10/19 close with next update on 5/17/19 close.

Courtesy of Phil Erlanger Research, Inc.

Economic & Related:

April Retail Sales is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall to 0.2% from 1.6%.

May Empire Manufacturing is also due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall to 7.7 from 10.1.

April Industrial Production is due out at 9:15 a.m. EDT and is expected to improve to 0.1% from -0.1%.

Weekly Crude Oil Inventories are due out at 10:30 a.m. EDT.


President Trump heads to the Capitol for the Annual National Peace Officers’ Memorial Service. Then he meets with Secretary of State Pompeo who is back from Brussels and Russia.

House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee holds a hearing on Boeing’s (BA) 737 Airmax at 10:00 a.m. EDT.

Senate holds a hearing with Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin at 10:00 a.m. EDT.

Federal Reserve Governor Randal Quarles speaks at 9;30 a.m. EDT.

Federal Reserve Richmond President Tom Barkin speaks at 1:00 p.m. EDT.

Conferences & Analyst Meetings: 

Analyst Meetings/Notable Conference Call: JNJ XEL TSCO QSR  (analyst/investor day)

Sellside Conferences: Bank of America Healthcare Conference. JP Morgan TMT Conference. Keefe, Bruyette & Woods European Financials Conference. BMO Annual Farm To Market Conference. Goldman Sachs Industrial and Materials Conference.

Industry Conferences:  FINRA Annual Conference.

M&A Activity

TransUnion (TRU) to  buy TruSignal, no terms.

Brown & Brown (BRO) to buy UDS, no terms.

Upgrades & Downgrades

Best Upgrade of the Day:

Worst Upgrade of the Day: None of note.

Early Morning Gap Up/Down:

Gap Higher: TCS +11%, PPDF +5%, ROAN +5%.

Gap Lower: A -10%, FSM -8%, EGHT -7%, JKS -6%, VIRT -6%, NEWR -5%, WMC -5%, IMGN -5%,

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