The Daily Briefing For March 29th: S&P 500 Moves Back Above 4000 This Morning

by Geoff Garbacz | 03/29/2023 8:31 AM

Rebel Yell Morning Market Report

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The Daily Briefing For March 29th: S&P 500 Moves Back Above 4000 This Morning

Overnight SummaryThe S&P 500 closed Tuesday lower by -0.16% at 3971.27 from Monday higher by 0.16% at 3977.53. The overnight high of 4040.25 was hit at 6:05 a.m. EDT. The low was hit at 4000.75 at 4:05 p.m. EDT, a range of ~43 points high to low.  At 7:20 a.m. EDT, the S&P 500 (mini) was higher by 33.75 points which is 0.81%.

Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats: CALM +0.92, LULU +0.14, PRGS +0.14, PLAY +0.10, JEF +0.10, MCNO +0.09 of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: MU (1.03) of note.

LULU has statistically strong seasonal tendencies around this time of the year.  Solid Cycle R and certainly in 2023 demonstrates it is following the historical seasonal pattern (2023 r=0.76).  Videos on how to use seasonality to pick stocks in Erlanger ChartroomSeasonal Video Part I and Seasonal Video Part II.

Unusual Options Activity:

Daily Screen in Erlanger Chartroom that highlights unusual Call and Put Options activity in the S&P 500.  It looks for volume outliers relative to the Open interest in Calls or puts.  Usually, the stock price activity reflects the outlier situation (earnings/buyout/announcement), but once in a while, you can uncover stocks prior to a pop or drop.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News:
    • Trailblazer Merger Corporation I (TBMCU) Announces Pricing of $60,000,000 Initial Public Offering on Nasdaq.
  • Secondaries Priced: None of note.
  • Notes Priced of note:
    • LOW: Prices $3.0 Billion Notes Offering.
    • REXR: Announces Pricing of $300 Million of 5.000% Senior Unsecured Notes due 2028.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • BMEA: Announces Proposed Public Offering of $125 million Common Stock.
    • PYPD: Proposed Underwritten Public Offering of Ordinary Shares. (Newbridge bookmanager)
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note: None of note.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE):
    • DPRO: Proposed Underwritten Public Offering to Secure Growth Capital.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • CRVS: Filed Form S-3.. $100,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
    • LAND: Filed Form S-3.. $1,500,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
  • Debt/Credit Filing and Notes:
    • STEM: Proposes $175 Million green convertible senior notes offering.
  • Tender Offer:
    • CEMI: Biosynex Extends Tender Offer for the shares of Chembio Diagnostics, Inc.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed:
    • AULT: Announces Agreement to Sell $10.0 Million Stated Value of Convertible Preferred Stock.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: ARCT +22%, LULU +12%, NABL +9% of note.
    • Trading Down: SLGC -15%, ERO -4%, PLAY -4% of note.
  • News After The Close:   
    • Bets Against Signature Bank Stock Paid Off—on Paper, at Least. (WSJ)
    • The FDIC informed crypto clients with deposits at the failed Signature Bank that they have until April 5th to close their accounts and move their money. (Bloomberg)
    • Binance Sees $2 Billion in Outflows as Troubles Compound. (WSJ)
    • MU Says Total Headcount Reduction to Equal 15%.
    • Cardinal Health (CAH) Weighs Carve-Out of Nuclear Medicine Unit. (Bloomberg)
    • Biden Administration Adds 5 Chinese Companies To Entity List For Allegedly Aiding China’s Repression Of Uyghurs.
    • President Biden: Banking Crisis ‘Not Over Yet’ -Done What Is Possible For Banks.
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Index Changes: N-able (NABL) set to join S&P SmallCap 600.
    • Bachoco (IBA) Informs About NYSE Delisting Application.
    • Digital World (DWAC) Receives Compliance Notification from NASDAQ that the Company’s fee delinquency has been cured.
    • FleetCor (FLT) appoints Tom Panther as CFO.
    • Kaixin Auto Holdings (KXIN) Announces Receipt of Nasdaq Letter Regarding Second Minimum Bid Price Compliance Period.
    • LIZHI (LIZI) Receives Approval to Transfer to The Nasdaq Capital Market.
    • Macy’s (M) CEO Jeff Gennette To Retire, Give Reins To Bloomingdale’s Boss Tony Spring.
    • UBS AG (UBS) names Sergio P. Ermotti as CEO.
    • Macys (M) CEO Jeff Gennette will retire next year. (CNBC)
  • Buyback Announcements or News:
    • Dave & Buster’s (PLAY) authorizes up to $100 million in share repurchases.
  • Stock Splits or News:
    • NOGN trading r/s price .
  • Dividends Announcements or News:
    • AVB Goes ex div tomorrow for $1.65
    • ESS Goes ex div tomorrow for $2.31
    • Cal-Maine Foods (CALM) declares quarterly dividend of $2.20 per share.

What’s Happening This MorningFutures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 +32, Dow Jones +221,  NASDAQ +116, and Russell 2000 +16. (as of 7:56 a.m. EDT).  Asia and Europe higher. VIX Futures are at 21.10 from 22.45 yesterday.  Gold and Silver lower with Copper higher. WTI Crude Oil and Brent higher with Natural Gas lower. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 3.554% from 3.568% yesterday. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower versus the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $28,329 from $26,936 yesterday, higher by 3.69%.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Energy, Basic Materials, Consumer Cyclical of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Communications Services of note.
  • One Month Winners: Communication Services, Technology of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Communication Services, Technology, Consumer Cyclical of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Technology, Basic Materials, Industrial of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: None of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical of note.

U.S. stocks ended modestly lower on Tuesday, as Treasury yields rose, keeping pressure on the rate-sensitive Nasdaq Composite Index. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed about 37 points, or 0.1%, ending near 32,394, while the S&P 500 index fell 0.16% and the Nasdaq closed 0.5% lower. Stocks fell, but ended off the session lows, as the 2-year Treasury rate climbed 10.5 basis points to 4.06%, back above 4.00%. (MarketWatch – edited by QPI)

Click here for a video explanation of Erlanger Value Lines.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Wednesday After the Close:

  • Thursday Before the Open:

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: KC +1.51, BLUE +0.58 of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: CONN (0.67), SHCR (0.01) of note.
  • Still to Report: CTAS, PAYX, UNF of note.


  • Positive Guidance: NCNO, LULU of note.
  • Negative Guidance: SNX, MU of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: ARCT +27%, LULU +15%, NABL +14%, CLPT +8%, LAND +6% of note.
  • Gap Down: SLGC -14% of note.

Insider ActionSLG, SCWX sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  No stock sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & MagsRepeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • 5 things to know before the stock market opens. (CNBC)
  • 5 Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: UBS Veteran Ermotti Returns To Lead Takeover of Credit Suisse. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Read Story: Ivy League prices are pushing $90,000 a year. (Bloomberg)
  • Stocks, US Futures Rise as China Tech Buoys Mood: Market Wrap. (Bloomberg)
  • Saudi Arabia takes steps to join China led security bloc, as ties with Beijing strengthen. (CNBC)
  • US 30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rate eases to six week low. (Bloomberg)
  • SVB mess festered under Fed’s bureaucracy and feel good culture. (Bloomberg)
  • Credit Suisse (CS) whistleblowers say Swiss bank has been helping wealthy Americans dodge U.S. taxes. (CNBC)
  • Mortgage demand gets a boost from bank volatility, but may be short lived. (CNBC)
  • Carl Icahn wants to bring back Jay Flatley as CEO of Illumina (ILMN)(WSJ)
  • Defaults are increasing at high end office buildings amid remote work and higher interest rates. (WSJ)

Moving Average Update:

  • Score slinks back a notch to 68% from 71%. Holding…for now.


  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President receives the President’s Daily Briefing, 8:30 a.m. EDT
    • The President hosts the Summit for Democracy Virtual Plenary on Democracy Delivering on Global Challenges, 11:20 a.m. EDT
    • Press Briefing by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, 1:00 p.m. EDT
    • The President hosts a bilateral meeting with President Alberto Fernández of Argentina, 2:45 p.m. EDT
    • The President hosts a reception celebrating Greek Independence Day, 5:00 p.m. EDT


  • MBA Mortgage Applications 7:00 a.m. EDT
    • MBA Mortgage Applications: Composite: +2.9%, Purchase: +2.0%, ReFi: +4.8%
    • U.S MBA Mortgage Applications (WOW) Actual: 2.9% VS 3.0% Previous
    • U.S MBA 30-yr Mortgage Rate Actual: 6.45% VS 6.48% Previous
  • February Pending Home Sales is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall to -2.3% from 8.1%.
  • State Street Investor Confidence 10:00 a.m. EDT
  • EIA Petroleum Status 10:30 a.m. EDT

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:

  • Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr 10:00 a.m. EDT

M&A Activity:

  • Nano Dimension (NNDM) Increases Offer to Acquire Stratasys to $19.55 Per Share in Cash.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Barclays Crypto and Blockchain Summit
    • Bank of America Securities Energy, Utilities and Infrastructure Conference 2023 (03/29/23-03/30/23)
    • BNPP Exane Medtech Conference 2023
    • CIBC Consumer & Retail Conference 2023
    • CNBC: Healthy Returns Summit
      Investor Summit Microcap Event 2023
    • JP Morgan Retail Round Up (03/29/23-03/30/23)
    • National Bank of Canada 21st Annual Financial Services Conference 2023 (03/29/23-03/30/23)
    • Scotiabank Utilities & Renewables Conference
    • TD Securities Engineering & Construction Conference
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • Barclays ESG Sustainability and Finance
        • SVB Securities Biotech Mountain Meeting
        • Stifel CNS Days (03/28/23-03/29/23)
        • Truist Gulf Coast Casino Bus Tour

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

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