The Daily Briefing For March 1st: Stocks Lower, Russian Troops Approach Kyiv and State of the Union Tonight

by Geoff Garbacz | 03/01/2022 9:05 AM

Rebel Yell Morning Market Report

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The Daily Briefing For March 1st: Stocks Lower, Russian Troops Approach Kyiv and State of the Union Tonight

Overnight Summary:  The overnight session was decent until 2:00 a.m. EST when futures fell apart after hitting 4396. They have fallen to 4337.75 at 7:15 a.m. EST near the low of 4322.50.  Asia was higher overnight and Europe is trading lower this morning.

Breaking News: Ukraine appeals to EU as massive Russian convoy nears Kyiv this morning.

Earnings Out After The Close:

  • Beats: SBAC +0.62, PUBM +0.23, ZM +0.22, HLIO +0.19, SAIL +0.16, ENDP +0.16, PRAA +0.14, ACHC +0.13, PGNY +0.11, HPQ +0.08, WDAY +0.07, DDD +0.06, AMBA +0.03, HRTX +0.03, SDC +0.02, TREX +0.02, NKTR +0.01, SRI +0.01, VLDR +0.01.
  • Flat: PRIM +0.00, SEER +0.00, TASK +0.00.
  • Misses: NVAX (9.38), KD (2.83), JRVR (1.96), FGEN (0.75), MRTX (0.71), LCID (0.34), DNLI (0.29), SUPN (0.21), VRM (0.17), FRPT (0.11), AAON (0.10), FATE (0.06), BIGC (0.05), OKE (0.04), ACAD (0.04), GRPN (0.04), OSH (0.03), DAR (0.02), HTA (0.02), GDRX (0.01).

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News:
    • Supernova Partners Acquisition Company II, Ltd. Announces Shareholder Approval of Business Combination with Rigetti Holdings, Inc (RGTI).
  • Secondaries Priced: None of note.
  • Notes Priced of note: None of note.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • EXLS: Filed Form S-3ASR.. 310,394 Shares of Common Stock.
    • NOG: Filed Form S-3ASR.. 1,939,998 Shares of Common Stock.
    • RCKT: Filed Form 424B5.. $200,000,000 Common Stock.
  • Pricing of Over-Allotment: None of note.
  • Direct Offering:
    • CGI Group (GIB) intent to repurchase 3.97 million of its shares held by CDPQ.
  • Selling Shareholders of note: None of note.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • AES: Files Form S-3.. Mixed Shelf.
    • DNLI: Filed Form S-3ASR.. Mixed Security Shelf.
    • JBLU: Filed Form S-3ASR.. Mixed Security Shelf.
    • WHD: Filed Form S-3ASR.. Mixed Security Shelf.
    • WTW: Filed Form S-3ASR.. Mixed Security Shelf.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: DDD 13%, TASK 11%, SAIL 11%, ACI 9%, WDAY 7%, STRL 6%, ACAD -5%.
    • Trading Down: GDRX -28%, AMBA -19%, BIGC -18%, HRTX -16%, LCID -13%, GOEV -12%, SUPN -11%, PUBM -10%, GRPN -9%, SEER -9%, NTLA -8%, VRM -7%, ENDP -7%, TREX -6%, FGEN -6%, SDC -6%, NVAX -5%.
  • News After The Close:
    • Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: ZM, WDAY, LCID, NVAX  (CNBC)
    • GoodRx (GDRX) stock tumbles 30% after Q4 miss (MarketWatch)
    • Vroom (VRM) stock falls after online used-car retailer faces headwinds amid higher demand (MarketWatch)
    • Lucid Motors USA (LCID) signs agreements for a full production factory in Saudi Arabia.
    • Workday (WDAY) Stock Rallies as Earnings Show Surprise Acceleration (Barron’s)
    • Bond Market Shakes Off Hefty Swings in Sentiment (WSJ)
    • DISA Awards Leidos (LDOS) $11.5 Billion Defense Enclave Services Contract.
    • Mercury Systems (MRCY) awarded $165 million contract for secure mission system flight data recorders from U.S. Air Force.
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • AMC Entertainment (AMC) Promotes Dan Ellis to EVP, Chief Operations & Development Officer, and Selects Eliot Hamlisch as EVP, Chief Marketing Officer, Following the Retirement of Two Executives in a Long-planned Succession in AMC’s Executive Team.
    • Comscore (SCOR) CEO Bill Livek Announces Intention to Retire and Transition to Non-Executive Vice Chairman Role After a Successor is Identified.
    • Cosmos Holdings (COSM) Announces Start of Trading on the Nasdaq.
    • GrafTech International (EAF) David Rintoul, CEO, to retire June 22.
    • Red Rock Resorts (RRR) appoints Scott Kreeger to position of President.
    • Shell plc (SHEL) announced the appointment of Sinead Gorman as Chief Financial Office on April 1, 2022.
    • Six Flags (SIX) Announces CFO Transition.
    • United Bankshares (UBSI) names President Rick Adams, Jr. next CEO.  COO Jim Consagra, Jr., will become President.
    • West Pharm (WST) announce President/CEO Eric M. Green will also assume Chairman role.
    • VEON: Mikhail Fridman steps down from VEON Board.
    • WEI regains compliance with NYSE.
    • Zoom (ZM) Appoints Bill McDermott to Board of Directors.
  • Buyback Announcements:
    • AppLovin (APP) Announces $750 Million Share Repurchase Program.
    • Chevron (CVX) Raises Share Buyback Guidance to $5-$10 billion a year.
    • DT Midstream (DTM) approves the repurchase of up to an aggregate of 125,000 shares or roughly $6.64 million.
    • GoodRx (GDRX) Announces $250 Million Share Repurchase Program.
    • Steel Dynamics (STLD) Announces an Additional $1.25 Billion Share Repurchase Authorization.
    • Tremor (TRMR) starts share buyback program for up to $75 million.
    • YETI (YETI) Announces a $100 Million Share Repurchase Program.
    • Zoom Video (ZM) authorizes $1.0 billion share repurchase.
  • Stock Splits: None of note.
  • Dividends Announcements:
    • James River Group (JRVR) cuts quarterly dividend $0.25 to $0.05 per share.
    • Rand Capital Corp. (RAND) increases quarterly dividend $0.05 to $0.15 per share.
    • Steel Dynamics (STLD) Announces First Quarter 2022 Cash Dividend Increase of 31%.

What’s Happening This MorningFutures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 -35Dow Jones -254NASDAQ -119   and Russell 2000 -15.  Asia higher and Europe lower. VIX Futures are at 29.39 from 29.15 yesterday morning. Gold, Silver and Copper higher. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures higher. Natural Gas is higher. $ is higher vs Euro, higher vs Pound and lower vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury with yields at 1.742% from 1.92% from yesterday.  Bitcoin is at $44,789 from $41,711 at 7.43%. As of 8:09 a.m. EST

Monday’s Action – 02/28/22 Close:  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Energy, Utilities, Industrials of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Real Estate, Financial, Consumer Defensive of note.
  • One Month Winners: Energy, Healthcare and Basic Materials of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Energy, Consumer Defensive and Basic Materials of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Energy, Basic Materials, Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy, Utilities, and Financials of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Energy and Basic Materials of note.

Stocks ended mixed with the Dow falling 0.49%.  The NASDAQ ended up 0.41%.  The SPX ended -0.24% and fell 3.1% for the month of February.  TLT jumped 2.27% to close at 139.98.  Updated 02/28/22 close.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Tuesday After the Close: CRM, ROST, HPE, PLUG, SOFI, JAZZ, BROS, FSLR, SRPT, SGMS, CELH, DNLI, JAMF, CERT, TTEC, JWN, IPAR, GO, URBN, CCXI, FOE, RPAY, WISH, NSTG, HCAT, DOMO, ZGNX, RGNX, AKA, ARLO, INO, PLBY, PETQ, GRWG, DIBS, VUZI, BNFT of note.
  • Wednesday Before the Open: DLTR, DCI, LAC, HAYW, KFY, PDCO, DOOO, DY, ANF, STER, DIN of note.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: BIDU +2.60, BLDR +0.89, MANU +0.78, BMO +0.62, TGT +0.34, SJM +0.25, AMRN +0.18, TILE +0.15, KTB +0.11, BNS +0.10, KSS +0.10, XHR +0.08, BSY +0.06, HZNP +0.06, PRGO +0.04, SE +0.03, NOVT +0.03, APG +0.03, TWNK +0.02, WEN +0.01, SHC +0.01, NFE +0.01.
  • Flat: TWKS +0.00, HRL +0.00.
  • Misses: IGT (0.40), CRON (0.22), HGV (0.13), ADT (0.12), FOUR (0.10), EVRI (0.10), GOLF (0.09), ITCI (0.07), RDNT (0.06), TMX (0.02).
  • Still to Report: AMRS , AZO , CLVT , DPZ , EHTH , FSS , MLCO , TRS.

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: VRRM, FRPT, TASK, TREX, ACHC, HPQ, HLIO, SRI, SGRY, APPF, STRL, AMRC, TWKS.
  • Negative Guidance: ITRI, MNTV, SDC, SBAC, ZM, VLDR, PUBM, GRPN, VRM, GDRX, OSH, ENDP, PRIM.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart: Updated through 02/28/22 close.

 

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: CTIC +29%, LEGN +19%, DDD +11%, TASK +11%, SAIL +9%, ACI +9%, WDAY +6%, APPF +5%, VALN +4%.
  • Gap Down: GDRX -32%, SEER -19%, OZON -19%, AMBA -17%, BIGC -16%, HRTX -15%, VRM -14%, FGEN -14%, LCID -13%, GRPN -11%, PUBM -11%, NTLA -8%, NVAX -7%, SDC -7%, TREX -6%, SUPN -6%, PGNY -6%, ACAD -5%, VLDR -5%, ENDP -4% .

Insider ActionNSIT, HSC, MTTR, UVE, LSTR sees Insider buying with dumb short selling. BAND sees Insider buying with smart short sellers. 02/28/22 close.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”.

  • Stocks Making The Biggest Moves: TGT KSS AZO. (CNBC)
  • 5 Things To Know To Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • Corporate world moves away from Russia. (CNBC)
  • Walt Disney (DIS) pauses releases of movies in Russia. (CNBC)
  • Ukraine heads for brutal phase of war as Russia regroups. (Bloomberg)
  • Massive Russian convoy approaches Kyiv. (CNBC)
  • A large explosion hit in Kharkiv in front of a large administrative building. (NYT)
  • Anonymous hackers declare Cyber War against Russia. (CNBC)
  • Target (TGT) put up a great quarter as growth keeps going. (CNBC)
  • President Biden prepares for the State of the Union. (Bloomberg)
  • Visa (V) and Mastercard (MA) block Russian banks from their networks. (CNBC)
  • Pfizer (PFE) and Biontech (BNTX) Covid vaccine was just 12% effective against Omicron in kids. (CNBC)
  •  Toyota (TM) closes 14 plants due to computer virus infiltrating those plants. (WSJ)
  • Robinhood Snacks looks at the Russian economy as it enters crisis mode. Clean energy sees a record breaking auction for offshore wind farms.

Moving Average Update:

  • Score improves to 43% from 6%.  Updated 02/28/22 close.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President receives the President’s Daily Brief, 9:50 a.m. EST
    • The President delivers the State of the Union address to a joint session of CongressThe Vice President, The First Lady, and The Second Gentleman attend, 9:00 p.m. EST

Economic: 

  • Redbook Sales 8:55 a.m. EST
  • February ISM Manufacturing Index is due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and is expected to rise to 58% from 57.60%,
  • February Construction Spending is due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and is expected to fall to -0.40% from 0.2%.
  • PMI MFG Index 10:00 a.m. EST
  • API Crude Oil Data 4:30 p.m. EST
  • President Biden delivers the annual State of the Union Address at 9:00 p.m. EST.

Federal Reserve Speakers:

  • Federal Reserve Atlanta President Raphael Bostic speaks at 2:00 p.m. EST

M&A Activity:

  • AZZ to acquire DAAM Galvanizing.
  • AppLovin (APP) to acquire Wurl, a software platform in the Connected TV (CTV) market.  The transaction is valued at approximately $430 million.
  • DoorDash (DASH) Enters Definitive Agreement To Acquire Bbot.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Bank of America Power, Utilities & Clean Energy Leaders Conference 2022 (03/01/22-03/03/22)
    • Berenberg Thematic Software Conference 2022 (03/01/22-03/02/22)
    • Credit Suisse London Global Healthcare Conference 2022 (03/01/22-03/03/22)
    • 2nd Annual Chardan Microbiome Medicines Summit 2022
    • Jefferies Payments & FinTech Summit 2022 (03/01/22-03/02/22)
    • JP Morgan 5G Tech Virtual MWC Management Meetings 2022
    • Keefe, Bruyette and Woods (KBW) Payments Finance and Technology (FinTech) Conference 2022 (03/01/22-03/03/22)
    • Truist Securities AI Symposium – Biotech & Tools
    • Wolfe Research Real Estate Conference 2022
      • Previously Announced  Conferences:
        • Credit Suisse Energy Summit
        • Deutsche Bank ESG Conference (02/28/22-03/02/22)
        • Evercore Industrial Conference (02/28/22-03/01/22)
        • JP Morgan Global High Yield & Leveraged Finance Conference (02/28/22-03/02/22)
        • Morgan Stanley Energy and Power Conference (02/28/22-03/02/22
        • BMO Capital Markets 31st Global Metals & Mining Conference 2022 (02/27/22-03/02/22)
        • Credit Suisse 27th Annual Energy Summit 2022 (02/27/22-03/02/22)
  • Company Meetings: ACM, OTRK.
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: ACVA, ADT, CVX, ETN, HUM, KEY, OTEX, PGR, SLAB, SPGI, TGT
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event: None of note.
  • Industry Meetings:
    • 4th Chronic Kidney Disease Drug Development Summit (previously CKD3) 2022 (03/01/22-03/03/22)
      • Previously Posted and Ongoing Conferences:
        • American Society for Experimental Neurotherapeutics (ASENT) Annual Meeting 2022 (02/27/22-03/03/22)
        • Inspire 2022 (02/27/22-03/02/22
        • International Franchise Association’s 2022 (02/25/22-03/01/22)

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

       

Monday’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

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