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The Daily Briefing For June 27th: Can S&P 500 Reverse Downtrend Over Last Six Trading Days Into Month End?

by Geoff Garbacz | 06/27/2023 8:26 AM

Rebel Yell Morning Market Report

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The Daily Briefing For June 27th: Can S&P 500 Reverse Downtrend Over Last Six Trading Days Into Month End?

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Monday at 4328.82 lower by -0.45% from Friday at 4348.33 lower by -0.77%. Overnight ranges saw the high hit at 4387.75 at 3:10 a.m. EDT while the low was high at 4371 at 4:05 a.m. EDT. The range overnight was 16 points. The 10-day average of the overnight range is at 20.20 from 20.40.  The average for May was 21.63. Currently, the S&P 500 is higher by points and is up % at 7:00 a.m. EDT.

Chart of the Day: The S&P 500 is lower 5 of the last 6 trading days and oversold indicators are moving in the right direction but not there yet. Stochastics need to break 30, ENS Overbought Oversold needs to hit -50 and the 6 Day RSI needs to hit 30 as well.

 

Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats: None of note
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.

Unusual Options Activity:

Daily Screen in Erlanger Chartroom that highlights unusual Call and Put Options activity in the S&P 500.  It looks for volume outliers relative to the Open interest in Calls or puts.  Usually, the stock price activity reflects the outlier situation (earnings/buyout/announcement), but once in a while, you can uncover stocks prior to a pop or drop.

   

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News:
    • Alpha Healthcare Acquisition Corp. III (ALPA) Announces Non-Binding Letter of Intent to Acquire a Commercial Stage Regenerative Medicine Company Conditioned Upon Closing of Carmell Business.
  • Secondaries Priced: None of note.
  • Notes Priced of note:
    • H: Pricing of Public Offering of Senior Notes.
    • KGC: Prices $500M debt offering.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • APLD: Filed 424B5.. Up to $125,000,000 Common Stock.
    • EU: Announces agreement for at-the-market offering
    • MLTX files for $250 million public offering.
    • NXT files for 14.2 million shares offering of common stock.
    • OPCH: Filed Form RW.
    • RVSN: Filed Form F-3.. 11,842,104 Ordinary Shares.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note: None of note.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE):
    • ISPR: Raises Approximately $8 Million in Private Placement of Common Stock to Support Long-Term Growth Strategy.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • IDYA: Filed Form S-3ASR.. Mixed Shelf.
  • Debt/Credit Filing and Notes:
    • Ring Energy’s (REI) borrowing base was reaffirmed at $600 million under its $1.0 billion senior revolving credit facility.
    • Scorpio Tankers Inc. (STNG) Announces Commitments for new $1 Billion Term Loan and Revolving Credit Facility.
    • ESTE: Announces Private Offering of $500 Million of Senior Unsecured Notes due 2031.
  • Tender Offer:
    • HPQ: Commences Cash Tender Offer for Up to $1.0 Billion Aggregate Purchase Price of Certain of its Outstanding Notes.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed:
    • LNSR: Form S-3 Filed.. Up To 7,940,446 Shares Of Common Stock Issuable Upon Conversion Of Series A Convertible Preferred Stock, Up To 2,183,623 Shares Of Common Stock Issuable Upon Exercise Of Class A Warrant.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close

  • After Hours:
    • Trading Up: AEL 7%
    • Trading Down: ACET -14%, APLD -5%
  • News After The Close:
    • Bristol Myers (BMY) receives European Commission Approval of CAMZYOS for the treatment of Symptomatic Obstructive Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy. (News Release)
    • Volkswagen AG (VWAGY) to develop a EV for sub $22,000. (Inside EVs)
    • Treasury Secretary Yellen to visit China in early July. (Bloomberg)
    • Brookfield is rumored to be purchasing American Equity Life (AEL). (Bloomberg)
    • Microsoft (MSFT) may buy Bungie and Sega. (The Verge)
    • Robinhood (HOOD) to cut 7% of staff. (WSJ)
    • Illumina (ILMN) begins headcount reduction and expects more cuts in Q3, to cut $100 million in 2023.
    • RIDE: Chapter 11 petition filed on Monday listed as much as $500M of both assets and liabilities.
    • Ford (F) To Cut Hundreds Of US Salaried Workers To Lower Costs. (Bloomberg)
    • General Dynamics (GD) awarded $257.6 million modification to U.S. Army contract.
    • CACI Awarded $5.7 Billion Enterprise Information Technology as a Service (EITaaS) Wave 1 Agreement by the Air Force.
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • American Express (AXP) announces retirement of Chief Financial Officer Jeffrey Campbell and names deputy Chief Financial Officer Christophe Le Caillec as successor.
    • CoreCard Corporation (CCRD) Joins Russell 3000® Index.
    • Emergent BioSolutions (EBS) announces that Robert G. Kramer Sr. has informed the Board of Directors of his intention to retire from Emergent as President and CEO.
    • KORU Medical Systems (KRMD) names Andrew D. C. LaFrence as CFO.
    • Noodles (NDLS) names Michael Hynes CFO as of 7/24/23.
    • Mobileye Global (MBLY) CFO Anat Heller steps down and the company names Moran Rojansky as Interim CFO.
    • Clearwater Paper ( CLW) names Rebecca Barckley as Interim CFO.
    • Autozone (AZO) President & CEO Bill Rhodes to become Executive Chairman of the Board from President in 2024. Philip Daniele to become CEO in 2024.
  • Buyback Announcements or News:
    • EXPI ups repurchase to $1 billion from $500 million through Stephens, Inc.
  • Stock Splits or News:
    • AREB trading r/s price.
  • Dividends Announcements or News:
    • Korn/Ferry (KFY) approved an increase of 20% to the company’s quarterly dividend to $0.18 per share.
  • Insider Sales Of Note: MOD

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 +4, Dow Jones -49,  NASDAQ +54, and Russell 2000 -3. (as of 7:57 a.m. EDT).  Asia is lower ex the ASX 200 and Europe is higher. VIX Futures are at 15,87 from 16.10 yesterday.  Gold flat with Silver higher and Copper lower this morning. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Crude Oil lower with Natural Gas lower as well. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 3.735% from 3.686% yesterday. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower versus the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $30,644 from $30,316 from yesterday, higher by 1.40%.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Real Estate, Energy, Basic Materials and Utilities of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical, Technology and Healthcare of note.
  • One Month Winners: Consumer Cyclical, Technology, Industrials of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Communication Services of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Industrials, Consumer Cyclical of note.
  • Year to Date Winners:  Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical of note.

Traders were unfazed by events in Russia over the weekend. Stock indexes ended lower, bond yields declined slightly and commodity markets were quiet despite the abortive military mutiny in Russia.  The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite shed 1.2% and the S&P 500 declined 0.4%, continuing last week’s trend. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost about 13 points, or less than 0.1%.  Gains in energy, real-estate and materials stocks were outweighed by declines in shares of technology and communications firms and companies that rely on discretionary consumer spending. (WSJ – edited by QPI)

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Tuesday After the Close: 

  • Wednesday Before the Open:

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: SCHN +0.03, KFY +0.01 of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: WBA (0.07) of note.
  • Still to Report: SNX of note.

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: None of note.
  • Negative Guidance: APLD, KFY, WBA  of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: AEL +9%, ALDX +6%, MOD +4%, INSE +4% of note.
  • Gap Down: ACET -11%, NDLS -5%, APLD -5% of note.

Insider Action: No stock sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  LCID, ASAN sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • 5 things to know before the stock market opens. (CNBC)
  • Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: Putin Says Russia Avoided Civil War as Wagner Mutiny Case Ends.  (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg  Most Shared Story: Pickleball Injuries May Cost Americans Nearly $400 million This Year, Says UBS. (Bloomberg)
  • Stocks struggle to shake off worries over rates: Market Wrap. (Bloomberg)
  • ECB Head Lagarde says inflation is still too high, cannot declare victory yet. (CNBC)
  • Walgreen’s (WBA) slashes earnings guidance due to lower consumer spending, drop in Covid  care demand. (CNBC)
  • Lordstown Motors (RIDE) files for bankruptcy protection. (CNBC)
  • Delta Airlines (DAL) lifts profit guidance on strong travel demand and lower fuel costs. (Reuters)
  • Dangerous Heat to hit deep south today – New Orleans, Houston and Jackson, MS`. (NYT)
  • German Bond Yield Curve Most Inverted In Nearly 31 Years. (Reuters)

Moving Average Update:

  • Score notches down to 48% from 54%.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing, 10:00 a.m. EDT
    • Press Briefing by Principal Deputy Press Secretary Olivia Dalton, 1:00 p.m. EDT
    • The President departs the White House en route to Chevy Chase, Maryland, 4:10 p.m. EDT
    • The President participates in a campaign reception, 5:15 p.m. EDT
    • The President participates in a campaign reception, 6:45 p.m. EDT
    • The President departs Chevy Chase, Maryland en route to the White House, 7:30 p.m. EDT
    • The President arrives at the White House, 8:00 p.m. EDT

Economic:

  • May Durable Orders are out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and expected to come in at -1.0% from 1.10%.
  • Redbook Sales 8:55 a.m. EDT
  • April Case Schiller Home Price Index is due out at 9:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall -2.50% from -1.1%.
  • FHFA HPI 9:00 a.m. EDT
  • June Consumer Confidence is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to improve to 103.80 from 102.30.
  • May New Home Sales are due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and are expected to fall to 665,000 from 683,000.
  • Richmond Fed Mfg Index 10:00 a.m. EDT
  • API Crude Oil Data 4:30 p.m. EDT
  • The latest NYSE and NASDAQ Short Interest is due out after the close for the period of May 26th through June 13th. During this period, the S&P 500 rose 3.89%.

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers: None of note.

M&A Activity:

  • Brookfield Reinsurance (BNRE) Submits Proposal to Acquire AEL for $4.3 Billion.
  • CIRCOR International (CIR) Enters Into Amendment to Definitive Merger Agreement With KKR at $51 Per Share.
  • Thomson Reuters (TRI) acquires Casetext for $650 million in cash.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • BMO BioPharma Spotlight Series
    • Citigroup Brazil Equity Conference (06/27/23-06/28/23)
    • Jefferies Space Summit
    • RBC Canadian Private Technology Conference
    • Truist Securities Cell Therapy Symposium

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

[Strategic Investment: Post WWII]

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