The Daily Briefing For July 3rd: Stocks To Close at 1:00 P.m. EDT, Slow Day Ahead

Overnight Summary:  The S&P 500 closed Friday at 4450.38 up 1.23% from Thursday at 4396.44 higher by 0.45% from Wednesday at 4376.86 lower by -0.04%. Overnight ranges saw the high hit at 4493.25 at 6:30 a.m. EDT while the low was high at 4485 at 2:20 a.m. EDT. The range overnight was 8 points. The 10-day average of the overnight range is at 18.50 from 19.50.  The average for May/June average was 19.94 from 21.63 in May. Currently, the S&P 500 is higher by 1.25 points and is up by +0.03% at 7:10 a.m. EDT.

Earnings Out After The Close: 

• Beats: None of note
• Flat: None of note.
• Misses: None of note.

Unusual Options Activity:

Daily Screen in Erlanger Chartroom that highlights unusual Call and Put Options activity in the S&P 500.  It looks for volume outliers relative to the Open interest in Calls or puts.  Usually, the stock price activity reflects the outlier situation (earnings/buyout/announcement), but once in a while, you can uncover stocks prior to a pop or drop.

Capital Raises:

• IPOs Priced or News:
  • Biotech BioLingus (SUBL) files for IPO. (MarketWatch)
  • Teen retailer Claire’s withdraws IPO. (MarketWatch)
• New SPACs launched/News:
  • Bitcoin Depot and GSR II Meteora Acquisition Corp. (GSRM) Announce Closing of Business Combination.
  • Freedom Acquisition I Corp. (FACT) Announces Planned Listing by Combined Entity on Nasdaq Upon Consummation of Proposed Business Combination with Complete Solaria, Inc.
• Secondaries Priced: None of note.
• Notes Priced of note: None of note.
• Common Stock filings/Notes:
  • ALIM: Form S-3.. Up to 49,763,960 Shares of Common Stock.
  • APVO: Filed Form S-1.. Up to 8,275,862 Shares of Common Stock or Common Stock Underlying Pre-Funded Warrants Common Warrants to purchase up to 8,275,862 Shares of Common Stock.
  • AXSM: Closing of Public Offering of $225 Million of Shares of Common Stock.
  • GENK: Announces Closing of Initial Public Offering and Full Exercise of Underwriters’ Option to Purchase Additional Shares.
  • SKYX: Filed Form S-3.. Up to 7,274,939 Shares of Common Stock.
  • VSEC: Form S-3.. 3,500,000 Shares Common Stock.
  • YTEN: Form S-1 Filed .. 1,006,710 Shares Of Common Stock Issuable Upon Exercise Of Outstanding Warrants.
• Direct Offering:
  • NBSE: Closing of $5 Million Concurrent Registered Direct Offering and Private Placement Priced At-the-Market Under Nasdaq Rules.
• Selling Shareholders of note:
  • DMAC: Filed Form S-3.. 11,011,406 Common Shares by selling shareholders.
• Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE):
  • XTNT: Announces $15 Million Private Placement.
• Mixed Shelf Offerings:
  • CBUS: Form S-3 Filed $ 200 Million Mixed Shelf.
  • CNVS: Filed Form S-3 $75,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
  • IFRX: Filed Form F-3 $250,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
  • NRGV: Form S-3 Filed $300 Million Mixed Shelf.
  • ONTX: Form S-3 Filed $150 Million Mixed Shelf.
  • OP: Filed Form F-3.. $250,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
  • PIK: Form S-3 Filed $10,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
  • QH: Form F-3 Filed .. $3000 Million Mixed Shelf.
  • SNAX: Filed Form S-3.. Mixed Shelf.
  • TOP: Files $300 million mixed shelf securities offering.
• Debt/Credit Filing and Notes: None of note.
• Tender Offer: None of note.
• Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close and Over the Week:

• Weekly Wrap Up: Best and Worst performing large cap stocks:
  • Trading Up: GBX 37.9%, CBAY 37.0%, AAOI 36.2%, OSTK 36.1%, OPK 35.9%, AEL 28.7%, BZH 25.5%, TRHC 22.6%, SNBR 21.7%, CVNA 21.4%, COMM 21.4%, FG 20.4%.
  • Trading Down: FGEN -83.2%, CAMP -37.6%, RIGL -22.9%, EBS -20.8%, UBX -20.6%, RAD -20.3%, CARA -19.3%, GRTS -15.7%, DERM -15.2%, CASA -14.0%, NG -13.7%, TRUP -13.2%, IOVA -12.8%, BPT -11.8%, ASX -10.1%, LNTH -9.5%, CVGW -9.5%, URGN -9.4%.

• News Items After the Close:
  • SP 500 ends first 6 months up 16%. Nasdaq 100 ends the first half of year up 39%.
  • Apple (AAPL) closes with a $3 trillion valuation.
  • Goldman (GS) Is Looking for a Way Out of Its Partnership With Apple (AAPL). (WSJ)
  • Banks Brace for More Turmoil Heading Into the Third Quarter. (WSJ)
  • Chemours (CC) stock drops nearly 2% after final ‘forever chemicals’ deal announced. DD, CTVA, MMM (MarketWatch)
  • Raytheon Technologies (RTX) has been awarded a $5.5 bln modification to previously awarded US Air Force contract.
  • Boeing (BA) awarded a $793.35 million US Army contract for aircraft.
• News Items Over the Weekend:
  • The Score – Stocks that Defined the Week: AAPL, RIDE, WBA, CCL, NVDA, JPM (WSJ)
  • Widespread Drought Creates Winners and Losers in U.S. Agriculture. (WSJ)
  • Tesla (TSLA) Deliveries Rise 83% to Record in Latest Quarter. (WSJ)
  • Nationwide UPS Strike Averted In Last Minute Talks on Friday.
  • China Bans Exports of Two Metals That Can Be Used in Chips to Safeguard National Security and Interests, Says Export Operators Should Apply for Licenses and MOFCOM Will Examine Whether to Issue Licenses.
  •  Barron’s:
    • Positive View: AVB, EQR, DLR, EQIX, FR, SPG, PEAK, KIM, CUZ, HIW, LLY of note.
    • Cautious View: ATVI, GOOG of note.
    • Mixed View: None of note.
• Erlanger Type 1 Short Squeezes and Type 4 Long Squeezes reporting earnings this week:  None of note.

• Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
  • BGC Partners (BGCP) Completes Corporate Conversion to Full C-Corporation, Name Change to BGC Group, Inc., and Ticker Symbol Change to “BGC”.
  • Bionomics Limited (BNOX) announces Tim Cunningham joins as Chief Financial Officer.
  • First Capital, Inc. (FCAP) Announces Frederick Succeeds Harrod as President and Chief Executive Officer of First Capital, Inc.
  • GLBZ: President and CEO John Long Announces Intention to Retire From The Bank of Glen Burnie.
  • KRA: Marcello Boldrini Appointed CEO of Kraton Corporation.
  • PrimeEnergy Resources Corporation (PNRG) joins the Russell 2000® Index.
  • Tattooed Chef (TTCF) Intends to file for Voluntary Chapter 11 Bankruptcy Protection and Pursue a Sale of Assets Under Section 363 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code. (MarketWatch)
  • U.S. Silica (SLCA) Expands Board of Directors with Appointment of Simon Bates.
• Buyback Announcements or News:
  • U.S. Bancorp (USB) common stock repurchases currently remain suspended.
• Stock Splits or News:
  • 22nd Century (XXII) Announces 1-for-15 Reverse Stock Split.
  • Agrify (AGFY) Announces 1-For-20 Reverse Stock Split.
• Dividends Announcements or News:
  • BNY Mellon (BK) Announces Intention to Increase Quarterly Common Stock Dividend by 14 Percent to $0.42 per Share.
  • Citigroup (C) completes Fed’s CCAR stress test process; plans to increase dividend by 4%.
  • GS to raise quarterly dividend 10% to $2.75 from $2.50 per share.
  • JPMorgan (JPM) Planning To Boost Quarterly Dividend To $1.05 per share In 3rd Quarter.
  • Morgan Stanley (MS) Announces 7.5 Cents Dividend Increase and Authorization of a Renewed $20 Billion Multi-Year Common Equity Share Repurchase Program.
  • State Street Corporation (STT) Announces Preliminary Stress Capital Buffer Requirement and the Intention to Increase its Quarterly Common Stock Dividend by 10% to $0.69 per share.
  • Truist (TFC) announces Fed’s CCAR results; TFC plans to maintain dividend at current level.
  • WFC: Expects to increase its third quarter 2023 common stock dividend to $0.35 per share from $0.30 per share. (CNBC)
• Insider Sales Of Note: WMT EVP $677k,

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 -2, Dow Jones -57,  NASDAQ +2, and Russell 2000 -1. (as of 7:55 a.m. EDT).  Asia and Europe are higher. VIX Futures are at 14.90 from 15  Friday.  Gold and Silver lower with Copper higher this morning. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Crude Oil higher with Natural Gas lower. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 3.855% from 3.88% yesterday. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher versus the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $30,665 from $30,776 Friday, higher by 0.38%.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

• Daily Positive Sectors: Technology, Utilities, Consumer Cyclical, Healthcare, Consumer Defensive of note.
• Daily Negative Sectors: None of note.
• One Month Winners: Consumer Cyclical, Technology, Industrials, Basic Materials of note.
• Three Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical of note.
• Six Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical of note.
• Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Industrials, Consumer Cyclical of note.
• Year to Date Winners:  Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical of note.

Modest daily stock gains cinched a strong six months on Wall Street, fueled by investors’ optimism that inflation is easing while the economy continues to hum. Fresh spending data added momentum on Friday, showing milder core-price increases in May compared with a month earlier, while consumer outlays continued to rise. The data lifted major stock indexes on a day of calm trading, rounding out the Nasdaq Composite’s best first half of a year in four decades.  The tech-centric index climbed 1.4% Friday, sealing a 32% gain since the end of 2022. Enthusiasm about artificial-intelligence breakthroughs has sent investors scurrying into shares of companies such as Microsoft (MSFT) and Nvidia (NVDA), while upbeat corporate results have also lifted the tech sector’s appeal.  The S&P 500 gained 1.2% Friday, locking in a 16% rise since December. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 285.18 points, or 0.8%, to end the month at 34407.60 and the year up only 3.80%. (WSJ – edited by QPI)

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

• Monday After the Close: None of note.
• Wednesday Before the Open: None of note.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

• Beats: None of note.
• Flat: None of note.
• Misses: None of note.
• Still to Report: None of note.

Guidance:

• Positive Guidance: None of note.
• Negative Guidance: None of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

• Gap Up: XPEV +11%, NRGV +9%, IFRX +7%, LI +6%, TSLA +6%, NIO +6%, GCT +4% of note.
• Gap Down: TOP -8%, AZN -5% of note.

Insider Action: No stock sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  TLYS, ASAN sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

• 5 Things To Know Before The Stock Market Opens On Monday. (CNBC)
• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
• Bloomberg Lead Story: Tesla and BYD Post Record Sales on Surge In Electric Car Demand. (Bloomberg)
• Bloomberg  Second Most Shared Story: It’s Getting A lot Harder to Chase The Stock Rally From Here On.  (Bloomberg)
• NASDAQ Futures Extend Rally on Tesla, Oil Jumps: Market Wrap. (Bloomberg)
• Treasury Secretary Yellen to head to China from July 6th through 9th. (Politico)
• Bridgewater’s Greg Jensen sees a “bad outlook” for bonds and stocks. (Bloomberg)
• Wind Turbine troubles have sent Siemens tumbling. Fears could be much worse. (CNBC)
• Russian Security Council and Former Russian President Medvedev says nuclear war is not just possible but probable. (CNBC)
• AstraZeneca (AZN) shares are down -6% in premarket as the drugmaker said its datopotamab deruxtecan treatment showed positive results in patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer in a clinical Phase 3 trial but not as good as investors were looking for. (MarketWatch)

Moving Average Update:

• And there we are.  Happy 4th!  All Green.

Geopolitical: 

• President’s Public Schedule: None of note.

Economic:

• A quiet start to the week with U.S. Markets closing at 1:00 p.m. ahead of the Fourth of July.
• PMI Mfg Final 9:45 a.m. EDT
• May Construction Spending is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall to 0.4% from 1.20%.
• June ISM Manufacturing is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to rise to 47.10 from 46.90.

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers: None of note.

M&A Activity:

• Great Ajax (AJX) and Ellington Financial (EFC) announce merger agreement.
• PolyMet (PLM) Receives Non-Binding Proposal to Go Private. Glencore offers to buy rest of PolyMet Mining for $2.11 per share.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

• Sellside Conferences: None of note.
  • Previously posted and ongoing conferences: None of note.
• Top Shareholder Meetings: VBOC
• Fireside Chat: None of note.
• Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: None of note.
• Update: None of note.
• R&D Day: None of note.
• Company Event: None of note.
• Industry Meetings:
  • World Congress of Dermatology (07/03/23-07/08/23)
  • Morningstar Investment Conference UK 2023 (07/04/23)
    • Previously posted and ongoing conferences: None of note.

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: