The Daily Briefing For January 3rd: Stocks Trade In 60 Point Range Overnight, Now Up +18 on the S&P 500

by Geoff Garbacz | 01/03/2023 8:56 AM

Rebel Yell Morning Market Report

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The Daily Briefing For January 3rd: Stocks Trade In 60 Point Range Overnight, Now Up +18 on the S&P 500

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Friday lower by -0.25% at 3839.50 from Thursday down -0.25% at 3849.28.  The overnight high of 3906.75 was hit at 5:05 a.m. EST. The low was hit at 3842.75 at 8:30 p.m. EST, a range of ~64 points high to low.  At 7:25 a.m. EST, the S&P 500 (mini) was +14.50.

Overnight Lead StoryBuffalo Bill’s Damar Hamlin Suffered a Cardiac Arrest After A Tackle. Bills vs Bengals game was suspended. The country focused on Cincinnati hospital where Hamlin is. (Bloomberg)

Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats: None of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.

Unusual Options Activity:

Daily Screen in Erlanger Chartroom that highlights unusual Call and Put Options activity.  It looks for volume outliers relative to the Open interest in Calls or puts.  Usually, the stock price activity reflects the outlier situation (earnings/buyout/announcement), but once in a while, you can uncover stocks prior to a pop or drop.

 

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News:
    • ConnectM To Go Public Via Business Combination with Monterey Capital Acquisition Corporation (MCAC).
  • Secondaries Priced: None of note.
  • Notes Priced of note: None of note.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • AIHS: Filed Form RW — Withdrawal of Company registration.
    • DRIO: Filed Form S-3.. UP TO 107,409 shares of common stock.
    • ENLV: Filed Form 6-K AtTheMarket Sales agreement for $100Million.
    • GLDG: Announces Updated At-the-Market Equity Program.
    • GWAV: Filed Form S-1.. 2,726,043 Shares of Common Stock.
    • NBY: Filed Form S-1.. 327,860 Shares of Common Stock.
    • QLGN: Filed Form S-3.. 5,157,087 Shares.
    • SFR: Filed Form S-1.. 9,294,896 Shares of Class A Common Stock.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • CELC: Filed Form S-3.. 24,347,754 shares of common stock by the selling stockholders.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • CLGN: Filed Form F-3.. $100Million Mixed Shelf.
    • DERM: Filed Form S-3.. $150Million Mixed Shelf.
    • LOCL: Filed Form S-3 .. $250Million Mixed Shelf.
    • MYNZ: Filed Form F-3.. $150Million Mixed Shelf.
    • RGNX: Filed Form S-3ASR.. Mixed Security Shelf.
  • Debt Filing/Notes: None of note.
  • Tender Offer: None of note.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close and Over the Week:

  • Weekly Wrap Up: Best and Worst performing large cap stocks:
    • Trading Up: TGTX 45%, CPS 37%, PRQR 35%, GLYC 34%, KPTI 31%, CHRS 22%, RIGL 21%, ABEO 18%, FTCH 18%, GRPN 17%, TUSK 16%, SIBN 16%, CVNA 15%, STIM 14%, MGNX 14%.
    • Trading Down: TAL -21%, CALM -16%, NIO -12%, OMER -11%, TOUR -11%, BTU -11%, GSHD -11%, MRNA -10%, EDU -10%, CEIX -10%, CIM -10%, CBD -10%, ENPH -10%, GOL -10%, NIE -10%.
  • News Items After the Close:
    • Verizon (VZ), Intel (INTC) and Dow (DOW) stocks are the biggest ‘dogs’ of the Dow as 2022 ends. (MarketWatch)
    • S&P 500 Market Cap In 2022 Declined By About $8 Trillion.
    • Lockheed Martin (LMT) Says Pentagon Contract Is For Up To 398 F-35.
  • News Items Over the Weekend:
    • Stocks that Defined the Week: TSLA, AAPL, LUV, AMC, XOM, CALM, ABC (WSJ)
    • The Week in Business: Southwest’s (LUV) Holiday Meltdown (NYT)
    • Global Trade Is Shifting, Not Reversing. (WSJ)
    • Chinese President Xi said tough challenges remain in China’s fight against Covid-19 and acknowledged divisions in society that led to rare spontaneous protests, after weeks of silence on a virus policy pivot that has infected hundreds of millions and delivered a severe blow to economic activity. (Bloomberg)
    • New COVID variant XBB.1.5 rapidly spreading in the U.S., CDC data shows. (NY POST)
    • ‘Big Short’ investor Michael Burry predicts a US recession and inflation spike in 2023.
    •  Barron’s:
      • Positive View: AMLP, NTG, WMB, T, VZ, NEE, TTWO, MU, WBD, LH, MKL, UBER, DIS, and WSO of note.
      • Cautious View:  of note.
      • Mixed View: None of note.
  • Erlanger Type 1 Short Squeezes and Type 4 Long Squeezes reporting earnings this week:

  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Acacia (ACTG) Announces Internal Investigation into Former CEO’s Apparent Misconduct and Releases Preliminary Findings.
    • Avaya (AVYA) Receives Continued Listing Standard Notice from NYSE.
    • C.H. Robinson (CHRW) announces that Scott Anderson, Chair of the Board of Directors has been appointed Interim Chief Executive Officer.
    • Digital Realty Trust (DLR) names Matt Mercier as Chief Financial Officer.
    • Evolve Transition Infrastructure (SNMP) Receives Notice from NYSE American Regarding Continued Listing Standard.
    • GE to spin off the healthcare unit this week. (WSJ)
    • Iveric Bio (ISEE) Announces the Addition of Pravin U. Dugel, MD, to its Board of Directors.
    • Jowell Global (JWEL) Announces Receipt of Nasdaq Notification Regarding Minimum Bid Price Deficiency.
    • LexinFintech Holdings Ltd. (LX) Announces Management and Board Changes.
    • MiMedx Group (MDXG) has appointed Ricci S. Whitlow as Chief Operating Officer.
    • MSP Recovery (MSPR) D/B/A LifeWallet to begin trading under New NASDAQ Ticker Symbol LIFW.
    • Alex Wu, former Managing Director of Bain Capital, takes the President and CFO of NaaS (NAAS).
    • Original BARK Co. (BARK) announces that Zahir Ibrahim has joined the Company as Chief Financial Officer.
    • Tradeweb (TW) Elevates Billy Hult to Chief Executive Officer.
    • Vertiv (VRT) Completes CEO Succession.
    • Zhihu Inc. (ZH) Appoints New Director and Chief Financial Officer.
  • Buyback Announcements or News:
    • InterDigital (IDCC) Increases Share Buyback Authorization to $400 Million.
    • Scorpio Tankers (STNG) repurchased 390,972 of its common shares in the open market at an average price of $52.82 per share as part of the Co’s securities repurchase program.
    • So-Young (SY) Announces Upsizing of Share Repurchase Program to US$25 million.
  • Stock Splits or News:
    • BIOR trading r/s price.
  • Dividends Announcements or News:
    • CSCO Goes ex div tomorrow for $0.38.
    • Watsco (WSO) Boosts Annual Dividend 11% to $9.80 Per Share..

What’s Happening This MorningFutures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 +14, Dow Jones +107,  NASDAQ +63  and Russell 2000 +12(as of 7:59 a.m. EST).  Asian markets are lower ex the Nikkei.  Europe markets are trading higher. VIX Futures are at  23 from 23.25 Thursday.  Gold, Silver and Copper higher.  WTI Crude Oil and Brent are lower with Natural Gas lower as well. $ barely down. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 3.776% from 3.877% Thursday. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher versus the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $16,707 from $16,598 Thursday lower by -0.08%.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Energy of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Utilities, Real Estate, Basic Materials, Consumer Defensive, Industrials of note.
  • One Month Winners:  Healthcare, Utilities none of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Basic Materials, Industrials, and Energy of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Industrials, Energy, and Basic Materials of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy and Utilities  of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Energy of note.

U.S. stocks polished off their worst year since 2008 with a loss on Friday, bringing the year-to-date decline for the S&P 500 to 19.4%, its largest calendar-year drop since 2008, Dow Jones Market Data show. The same holds true for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which shed 8.8% this year, and the Nasdaq Composite, which lost 33.1%. On Friday, as stocks pared their losses heading into the close on the last session of the year, the S&P 500 fell 9.78 points, or 0.2%, to finish at 3,839.50, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 11.61 points, or 0.1%, to 10,466.48, and the Dow fell 73.55 points, or 0.2%, to 33,147.25. 2022 also marked the fourth-worst year for the S&P 500 since its inception in 1957. The only years where stocks fared worse were 2002, 1974 and 2008, according to DJMD. As previously high-flying megacap technology stocks and other interest-rate sensitive assets crumbled, value stocks outperformed this year, sending the Dow to its biggest calendar-year outperformance vs. the Nasdaq since 2000. The blue-chip gauge also recorded its biggest outperformance vs. the S&P 500 since the index’s creation. Energy stocks were a lone bright spot, as the S&P 500 energy sector recorded its best year on record with a 59% gain.  (MarketWatch)

Click here for a video explanation of Erlanger Value Lines.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Tuesday After the Close: SGH of note.
  • Wednesday Before the Open: UNF of note.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: None of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.
  • Still to Report: None of note.

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: None of note.
  • Negative Guidance: None of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart: 

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: LI +7%, XPEV +6%, SY +4%, MLCO +4%, NIO +4%, HCM +4%, ZH +4%, WYNN +4% of note.
  • Gap Down: UNVR -6% of note.

Insider Action: No stock sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  HHC sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: TSLA COTY PYPL WYNN LVS TAP (CNBC)
  • 5 things to know before the stock market opens Tuesday. (CNBC)
  • 5 Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: Futures Climb With Stocks on China Recovery Bets. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Read Story: Here’s Everything Wall Street Expects in 2023. (Bloomberg)
  • China Vows to Hit Back At Nations Imposing Covid Travel Curbs. (Bloomberg)
  • Russia is angry over the deadly Ukrainian strike, Moscow to exhaust Ukraine with more attacks say Ukrainian President Zelenskyy. (CNBC)
  • House to hold a roll call vote on the next House Speaker with Kevin McCarthy holding a slight lead. (CNBC)
  • Gold moves to a six-month high and more records are expected in 2023. (CNBC)
  •  

Moving Average Update:

  • Score improves to 37% from last Wednesday’s value of  3%.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing, 10:15 a.m. EST
    • Press Briefing by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, 2:30 p.m. EST

Economic: 

  • S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final 9:45 a.m. EST
  • November Construction Spending is due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and is expected to come in at -0.4% from -0.3%.

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers: None of note.

M&A Activity:

  • Super Group (SGHC) Completes Acquisition of Digital Gaming Corporation.
  • Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO) Completes Acquisition of The Binding Site Group.
  • Victoria’s Secret & Co. (VSCO) Completes Acquisition of Adore Me, Inc.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Citi Communications, Media and Entertainment Conference 2023 (01/03/23-01/05/23)
    • Daiwa PURE Energy and Healthcare Conference
    • Sankey Research Virtual Refining Conference.
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • None of note.
  • Company Meetings: None of note.
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: ENVX, EWTX.
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event:
  • Industry Meetings:

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

None of note.

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