The Daily Briefing For January 26th: Fed Announcement and Presser On Deck

by Geoff Garbacz | 01/26/2022 9:05 AM

Rebel Yell Morning Market Report

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The Daily Briefing For January 26th: Fed Announcement and Presser On Deck

Overnight Summary: Let the rumpus or a dead cat bounce begin. Stock indexes are higher this morning as green is the color of choice. Asia was higher ex Japan. Europe is higher across the board. S&P 500 Futures sold off until 7:00 p.m. EST hitting a low of 4300 and are now at 4405 up +55.75 or 1.28%.

Chart of The Week: Today we look at the Erlanger Sector Option Rank. It has moved to 19 this morning though our Chart which was created Monday night shows 14. Today’s rally therefore makes sense. For more information on this indicator feel free to contact Erlanger Research at support@erlangerresearch.com.

Earnings Out After The Close:

  • Beats: TXN +0.37, RNR +0.35, HA +0.32, COF +0.22, CADE +0.20, LRN +0.18, CNI +0.18, MSFT +0.16, WSBC +0.12, VBTX +0.12, FFIV +0.11, SLGN +0.06, FCF +0.05, RNST +0.04, AGYS +0.04, MRTN +0.04, NXGN +0.03, BXP +0.02.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: UMBF (0.24), NAVI (0.09), TRMK (0.07)

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News:
    • CF Acquisition Corp. V (CFV) closes with Satellogic and will trade under symbol “SATL” on January 26.
    • Yellowstone Acquisition Co. (YSAC) closes with Sky Harbour and will trade under symbol “SKYH” on January 26.
  • Secondaries Priced: None of note.
  • Notes Priced of note: None of note.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • BTBT: Filed Form 424B3.. 23,608,774 Ordinary Shares.
    • CMPO: Filed Form S-1.. Up to 22,415,400 Shares of Class A Common Stock Issuable Upon Exercise of the Warrants.
    • SRRA: Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock.. $100.0 million of shares of its common stock.. Jefferies and Cantor.
    • MYNZ: Announces Pricing of Follow-on Offering .. 1.5Million @$15.
  • Pricing of Over-Allotment: None of note.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • 8×8 (EGHT) files for 5,623,429 share common stock offering by selling shareholders.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:  None of note.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.
  • Note Offerings Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: LRN +6%, TXN +4%, MRTN +3%, ET +3%, MSFT +3%.
    • Trading Down: FFIV -13%, NAVI -9%, CNI -5%, EFTR -4%, COF -3%, UMBF -3%, MRUS -3%, SRRA -3%.
  • News After The Close:
    • Stocks Making the biggest moves after the bell: MSFT FFIV, NAVI (CNBC)
    • Microsoft (MSFT) cloud performance lags highest Wall Street hopes. (Reuters)
    • Dropbox (DBX) won’t be fully functional when macOS 12.3 arrives.  (Appleinsider)
    • President Biden to meet Wednesday with CEOs of GM, HP, other companies as he tries again to push Build Back Better Act: GM, F, MSFT, CRM, GLW, HPQ, CMI, ETSY (Market Watch)
    • Drop bitcoin as legal tender, IMF urges El Salvador (CNBC)
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • CN (CNI) Announces Appointment of Tracy Robinson as President and Chief Executive Officer.
    • Greg Peters Joins DoorDash (DASH) Board of Directors.
    • Five Point Holdings (FPH) CFO Erik Higgins to resign.
  • Buyback Announcements:
    • Palomar Holdings, Inc. (PLMR) Announces New Two Year, $100 Million Share Repurchase Program.
    • Exela Technologies (XELA) Announces Share Buyback of up to 100 Million Shares of Common Stock at $1 per Share Through Exchange Offer of New Notes.
  • Stock Splits: None of note.
  • Dividends Announcements:
    • Cadence Bank (CADE) raises common stock dividend.
    • Canadian Nat’l Rail (CNI ) increases 2022 dividend by 19%.
    • Energy Transfer (ET) Announces Increase in Quarterly Cash Distribution to $0.175 per unit.
    • Wash. Federal (WAFD) increases quarterly cash dividend $0.01  to $0.24 per share.

What’s Happening This MorningFutures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 +66 , Dow Jones +384 , NASDAQ +308 and Russell 2000 +29 . Asia higher ex Japan and Europe higher. VIX Futures are at 29.82 from 27.93 yesterday morning. Gold and Silver lower with Copper higher. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures higher. Natural Gas is higher. $ is higher vs Euro, lower vs Pound and higher vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury price is at $128.08 from $127.27  yesterday with yields at 1.79% from 1.77% yesterday morning. Bitcoin at $37,839 from $36,661 yesterday morning and +2.60%. As of 8:16 a.m. EST.

Tuesday’s Action – 01/25/22 Close:  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Energy of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical, Utilities, Consumer Defensive, Industrials of note.
  • One Month Winners: Energy and Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Materials, Consumer Defensive and Energy of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Energy, Consumer Defensive and Utilities of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy, Real Estate, and Financials of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Energy of note.

Monday is the new turnaround Tuesday as this Tuesday could not muster the strength to rebound.  All indexes ended in the red with NASDAQ 100 leading it down 2.48%.  Oil and Gas were up 1.43% and 1.95%.  Updated 01/25/22 close.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Wednesday After the Close: TSLA, INTC, NOW, LRCX, CCI, EW, VRTX, XLNX, AMP, LVS, RJF, TER, STX, URI, DRE, XM, WHR, PTC, PKG, WFG, WOLF, AZPN of note.
  • Thursday Before the Open: MA, CMCSA, DHR, MCD, SAP, BX, MO, SHW, MMC, HCA, NOC, STM, TROW, ROK, XEL, VLO, NUE, BLL, LUV, TSCO, DOV, MKC, NVR, IP, TXT, AOS, EWBC of note.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: SF +0.34, TEL +0.15, NDAQ +0.15, HES +0.12, ABT +0.11, KMB +0.05, RES +0.03, FBP +0.03, GLW +0.02, T +0.02, ADP +0.02, GD +0.02, ANTM +0.02, PB +0.01.
  • Flat: NYCB +0.00.
  • Misses: BA (7.50), OSK (0.65), MKTX (0.06), FBC (0.05), MNRO (0.03), ROL (0.01).
  • Still to Report:  APH, FCX, KNX, NSC, PGR.

Guidance:

    • Positive Guidance: LRN, CNI, NXGN, TXN, CVLT, GLW, ADP.
    • Negative Guidance: T, BXP, FFIV, HA, STKS, KMB.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart: Updated through 01/25/22 close.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: JKS +14%, LRN +7%, PROG +5%, ET +5%, TXN +4%, ARQQ +4%, MSFT +4%, LICY +4%, MRTN +3%, F +3%, FCF +3%.
  • Gap Down: MYNZ -22%, FFIV -14%, NAVI -11%, SRRA -6%, EFTR -4%, MRUS -3%.

Insider ActionSAFE sees insider buying with dumb short selling. LIQT, ICD, MACK see insider buying with smart short sellers. 01/25/22 close.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”.

  • Stocks Making The Biggest Moves: BA, T, MAT, GLW, KMB, DKNG. (CNBC)
  • 5 Things To Know To Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • Five Things to Know This Morning (CNBC)
  • Covid cases at 1,140,580 cases from 1,406,530 cases. Hospitalizations at 142,815 from 137,384.
  • Ukraine tells the world to stay calm with respect to an imminent invasion by the Russians. (NY Times)
  • OPEC plans a modest production increase . (Bloomberg)
  • Apple (AAPL) is the top seller of phones in China for the first time in six years after Huawei loses the top spot. (Bloomberg)
  • Intel (INTC) Wins Appeal of $1.2 Billion EU Antitrust Fine (Wall Street Journal)
  • JP MORGAN RESEARCH COMMENT: “S&P 500 drawdown of -11% is masking the severity of this sell-off .. not only in correction, it is already in bear market territory without a recession in sight.” Sell-off is “overdone, at least in the short-term, and see a bullish setup .. going into today’s FOMC ..” (CNBC)
  • Robinhood Snacks looks at  Spotify (SPOT) and the push to remove Joe Rogan as a podcast. Also, reviews Mark Cuban’s Cost Plus Drug Co that will challenge traditional pharmacy.

Moving Average Update:

  • Score again remains at 0%. Updated 01/25/22 close.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President and The Vice President receive the President’s Daily Brief, 10:15 a.m. EST
    • Press Briefing by White House COVID-19 Response Team and public health officials, 11:00 a.m. EST
    • The President meets with private sector CEOs to discuss the ways his Build Back Better agenda will grow the economy and make the U.S. more competitive, increase worker productivity and workforce participation, lower inflation over the long-term, and support business growth.  1:00 p.m. EST
    • Press Briefing by Press Secretary Jen Psaki, 2:00 p.m. EST
    • The President signs an executive order to make sexual harassment an offense in the Uniform Code of Military Justice, and to strengthen the military’s response to domestic violence and the wrongful broadcast or distribution of intimate visual images, 3:30 p.m. EST

Economic: 

  • MBA Mortgage Applications 7:00 a.m. EST
  • Retail Inventories 8:30 a.m. EST
  • Int. Trade in Goods 8:30 a.m. EST
  • Wholesale Inventories 8:30 a.m. EST
  • December New Home Sales are due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and is expected to rise to 765,000 from 744,000.
  • EIA Petroleum Report 10:30 a.m. EST
  • The Latest NYSE and NASDAQ Short Interest for the period of December 29th through January 12th is due out after the close. The S&P 500 fell -1.39% in that period.

Federal Reserve Speakers:

  • FOMC (Federal Reserve Open Market Committee) Announcement 2:00 p.m. EST
  • Federal Research Chair Jerome Powell Press Conference 2:30 p.m. EST

M&A Activity:

  • Midland States Bancorp (MSBI) pens agreement to acquire deposits and loans associated with two locations of FNBC Bank & Trust.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Lake Street Investor Conference 
    • TD Securities Global Mining Conference 2022 (01/26/22-01/29/22)
      • Previously Announced  Conferences:
        • Edison Group Open House: Global Healthcare 2022 (01/25/22-01/27/22)
  • Company Meetings: ACN, ENSC, MTNB
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: ARCO, CLNE, GNPX, KMI, CUE, SPWH, 
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event: None of note.
  • Industry Meetings:
    • Blockchain Conference 2022 01/26/22-01/27/22) 
      • Previously Posted and Ongoing Conferences:
        • Lung Cancer World R&D Virtual Summit 2022 (01/25/22-01/26/22)

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

       

Tuesday’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

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