The Daily Briefing For February 6th: Earnings Continue To Drive The Tape

by Geoff Garbacz | 02/06/2019 8:54 AM

Rebel Yell Morning Market Report

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The Daily Briefing For February 6th: Earnings Continue To Drive The Tape

IPOs on deck:  Six on deck for this week including Alector, In After Hours Trading

IPOs on deck:  Six on deck for this week including Alector, GossamerBio, Harpon Therapeutics, Monocle Acquisition, RMG Acquisition and Weatherbridge Acquisition.

Secondaries on deck: Secondaries to be priced this morning  AGLE CATB FNCB RCL.

IPO Filings After The Close:  Weatherbridge Acquisition (HHHHU) common stock offerings today.  

Announcements For Secondary Filings & Financings  of senior notes.  PDD PHUN SR files common stock offering.  files $300 million of notes.

Courtesy of IPO Financial

Earnings After The Close:

Beat: PAGP +0.64,  DIS +0.27,  VRTX +0.24,  EA +0.20,  VOYA +0.18,  PLT +0.14,  PAA +0.10,  NANO +0.10,  MANH +0.09,  MCHP +0.09,  ATO +0.08,  ZEN +0.07,  SFLY +0.06,  BE +0.06,  VIAV +0.06,  DATA +0.05,  HCSG +0.05,  PAYC +0.05,  BRKS +0.04,  SNAP +0.04,  JKHY +0.03,  USNA +0.03,  TENB +0.02,  ASH +0.02,  SCSC +0.02,  CB +0.02,  MODN +0.02,  ARLO +0.02,  MXL +0.01,  VREX +0.01,  PDM +0.01.

Flat: NBIX, MTSI, CERN, BOOT, HIW, ALL, SAVE, TMK, SWKS

Missed: APC (0.24), POWL (0.22), VNOM (0.21), DLR (0.12), TCS (0.05), MDU (0.03), HCLP (0.02), MYGN (0.01), OI (0.01), DOX (0.01), UNM (0.01).

Positive Guidance:  OI PAYC  ZEN.

Mixed Guidance: ARLO ASH BOOT CERN DLR MCHP MODN PLT SFLY DATA TENB.

Negative Guidance: EA MTSI MXL NANO PAA SWKS USNA VRTX.

Repurchase Agreements Announced: SWKS ($2 billion)

Dividend Increases: OMP MMM MCHP SU

News After The Close:

SeaWorld Entertainment (SEAS) names Gus Antorcha as its new CEO and Interim CEO John Reilly to become COO.

Senate passes bill 77-23 to impose new sanctions on Syria.

On DIS Call, the company reported that ESPN subs doubled over last 5 months to 2 million.

AXIOS reports that White House Senior Adviser Jared Kushner to host press conference next Thursday, February 14th on Middle East Peace Discussions.

Apple (AAPL) head of retail Angela Ahrendts to leave in April to be replaced by Deirdre O’Brien.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures 

U.S. futures: S&P +0.25, Dow Jones +15,  NDX +1125 and Russell 2000 +1.10  with fair values HIGHER WEAKENING THE OPEN.  Asia mostly higher with Shanghai closed and Europe mixed.

Gold and silver lower with copper higher. WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures lower. Natural Gas is higher. $ is higher vs Euro, higher vs. Pound and lower vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury price 121.92 with yields lower since Monday morning with the yield at 2.69%. Prices as of 8:30 a.m. EDT.

Top Sectors Tuesday: Conglomerates, Industrial Goods, Services, Consumer Goods.

Weakest Sectors Tuesday: None of note but Healthcare flat.

One Month Winners:  Industrial Goods, Technology, Services, Consumer Goods and Financial.

Three Month Winners: Utilities, Industrial Goods, Technology and Financials.

Six Month Winners: Utilities.

Twelve Month Winners: Utilities, Healthcare and Conglomerates.

Year to Date: All higher led by Industrial Goods, Conglomerates, Materials, Services, Technology and Financials.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest):

Today After The Close:  MET PRU NTR ORLY NXPI FLT CMG FTNT CNF EFX LNC NOV TRMB UHAL of note.

Thursday Before The Open:    PM SNY SPGI MOC ICE BCE FCAU YUM MPLX TWTR TSN DTE TU K CAH of note.

Earnings This Morning Of Note:

Beat Estimates:    REGN +1.24,  TTWO +1.05,  SPOT +0.59,  CG +0.18,  CPRI +0.18,  ABG +0.14,  HUM +0.12,  MBUU +0.12,  GWR +0.11,  JEC +0.09,  KFRC +0.08,  RDWR +0.07,  CTSH +0.07,  WD +0.07,  PFGC +0.06,  ATKR +0.04,  BCO +0.04,  BIP +0.04,  BSX +0.03,  ELAN +0.02,  ICL +0.01,  CSTE +0.01,  FDC +0.01,  TRVG +0.01.

Flat: FSV, SR, LLY.

Missed Estimates: CMI (0.33), SUM (0.25), NJR (0.09), ST (0.04)

Still to Report: FOXA, ASC, GM, MDP, NYT, BTU, TZOO

Rags & Mags:

Top Story: Review of the State of the Union. (CNBC)

5 Things You Need To Know To Start Your Day (Bloomberg) –  State of the Union Trump does not yield, Banks Face Tough Fed Test, U.K. sees Brexit trouble still, markets quiet and coming up.

Treasury Secretary Mnuchin interviewed on CNBC. (CNBC)

EU Tusk says “special place in hell” for those that pushed Brexit. (Bloomberg)

Tesla (TSLA) lowers price again of the Model 3 by $1100.

Congress moving closer on border security deal. (CNN)

Data Points:

Yesterday saw 1778 stocks rise and 1077 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 1738 rise and 1332 fall.

The SP 500 is still above its 50 day simple moving average but remains below its 200 day simple moving average. The Russell 2000 is also above its 50 day simple moving average but below its 200 day simple moving average. The Dow is also above its 50 day simple moving average  but remains below its 200 day simple moving average.  All three indexes are now above their 5,10 and 20 day moving averages. The S&P 500 moved above its 100 day simple moving average yesterday while the Russell 2000 is close to this level.

The QPI10 Day Moving Average of Breadth (10DMA) moved to buy on January 7th at 2549.69. For a move to a buy from cash, the 10DMA needed to have two days in row above +200 which happened January 7th. The next move will be to cash or sell. Watch closely. The S&P 500 has now been up 5 days in a row. Expect a down day soon.

Courtesy of Quantitative Partners, Inc

YTD  88% of stocks are higher and 12% are lower. Updated 2/1/19 close with next update on 2/8/19 close.

Courtesy of Phil Erlanger Research, Inc.

Economic & Related:

API Weekly Petroleum Institute reported that Crude Oil inventories rose 2.514 million barrels and Gasoline inventories built by 1.73 million barrels.

MBA Mortgage Applications fell -2.5% week over week.

November Trade Balance is due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and is expected to improve to $-54 billion from $-55.5 billion.

Weekly Crude Oil Inventories Due Out At 10:30 a.m. EST.

$27 billion of 10 Year Treasuries auctioned at 1:00 p.m. EST.

Politico:

Senate passes bill 77-23 to impose new sanctions on Syria.

Federal Reserve Governor Randall Quarles will speak at 6:05 p.m. EST.

Conferences & Analyst Meetings:

Analyst Meetings/Notable Conference Call: COST (monthly sales),  GIGL (update), CEMI (analyst and investor day), ZUMZ (monthly sales).

Sellside Conferences: none of note. Cowen Aerospace/Defense & Industrials Conference.

Industry Conferences: MicroStrategy World 2019.

M&A News & Rumors:

Spotify (SPOT) to buy Gimlet Media terms not disclosed.

Significant Upgrades (to buy) & Downgrades (to sell or underweight)

Upgrade of Note: Both Goldman and Morgan Stanley upgraded CHD after weaker earnings.

Pre-Market Movers:

Winners:  MGNX +58%, SNAP +26%, ZEN +11%, VIAV +10%, AMRS +10%, PLT +9%, PAYC +8%, SKY +8%, MCHP +6%, SWKS +5%, ING +5%,

Losers: ARLO -27%, TCS -16%, EA -15%, MTSI -11%, AGLE -10%, USNA -9%, SFLY -6%, HIW -5%

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