The Daily Briefing For February 28th: tocks Set To Rally For A Second Day. Can The S&P 500 Retake 4000?

by Geoff Garbacz | 02/28/2023 9:02 AM

Rebel Yell Morning Market Report

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The Daily Briefing For February 28th: tocks Set To Rally For A Second Day. Can The S&P 500 Retake 4000?

Overnight SummaryThe S&P 500 closed Monday higher by 0.31% at 3982.24 from Friday lower by -1.05% at 3970.04.  The overnight high of 4000 was hit at 6:55 a.m. EST. The low was hit at 3972.25 at 3:20 a.m. EST, a range of ~28 points high to low.  At 7:00 a.m. EST, the S&P 500 (mini) was higher by +10 points which is 0.25%.

Short Interest Comment: The latest short interest data is out for the period from 1/27 through 2/13. During that period, the S&P 500 rose 1.64%. Since that period, the S&P 500 is straight down losing -3.75%. NYSE Short Interest rose 1.15% while NASDAQ Short Interest fell -1.25%. More comments tomorrow when the data is processed.

Chart of the Day: The S&P 500 is struggling to get back above 4000. Notice since last May more days were below 4000 than above.

Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats: MKSI +0.66, ZM +0.40, FGEN +0.24, IIPR +0.23, TTEC +0.15, AAON +0.15, ADUS +0.14, VMEO +0.12, PRAA +0.12, DRQ +0.11, WDAY +0.09, PRIM +0.08, RRC +0.08, FSK +0.07, OKE +0.06, NARI +0.06, UHS +0.05, PRGO +0.04, HLIO +0.04, ICUI +0.04, DNLI +0.02, RLJ +0.02, ROVR +0.02, CDNA +0.02, VRAY +0.01, TREX +0.01, JRVR +0.01, FORG +0.01, PGNY +0.01, HIMS +0.01 of note.
  • Flat: TASK, NSA of note.
  • Misses: DAR (0.42), BMRN (0.39), AHCO (0.36), NGVT (0.30), EBS (0.29), OXY (0.22), KDNY (0.13), RCKT (0.10), PRA (0.06), HEI (0.04), AMRC (0.03), ACAD (0.01), ACHC (0.01) of note.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News:
    • APx Acquisition Corp. I (APXI) Announces Approval of Extension Meeting Proposals and Intention to Extend Combination Period.
    • PublicSq., a Leading Values-Aligned Marketplace, to Go Public via Combination with Colombier Acquisition Corp. (CLBR)
    • Oxbridge Acquisition Corp (OXAC): Jet Token Inc. to become publicly listed via business combination with Oxbridge Acquisition Corp.
    • Athena Consumer Acquisition Corp. (ACAQ): Next.e.GO Mobile SE has entered into a memorandum of understanding with Trafigura Pte. Ltd. to establish a long-term supply chain management service agreement focused on the supply of aluminium and battery metals such as lithium, cobalt, and copper.
  • Secondaries Priced:
    • QSR: Prices secondary offering of 2,213,851 common shares.
  • Notes Priced of note:
    • LNT: Prices Offering of $500 Million of 3.875% Convertible Senior Notes due 2026.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • APLS: Announces Closing of Public Offering of Common Stock and Pre-Funded Warrants and Full Exercise of Option to Purchase Additional Shares.
    • APRE: Closing of $5.5 Million Underwritten Public Offering of Common Stock.
    • TVTX: Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock $175Million. (Jefferies, JPM, BAC and SVB Bookmanagers)
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • AIRS: Files for 43,316,360 share common stock offering by selling shareholders.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • ARES: Filed Form S-3ASR Mixed Shelf.
    • CMS: Filed Form S-3ASR Mixed Shelf.
    • EVER: Filed Form S-3  $150 Million Mixed Shelf.
    • FTAI: Filed Form S-3ASR Mixed Shelf.
    • GE: Filed Form S-3  $20 Billion Mixed Shelf.
    • MDLZ: Filed Form S-3ASR.. Mixed Shelf.
    • OCGN — Filed Form POSASR — $175 Million Mixed Shelf.
    • PFG: Filed Form S-3ASR Mixed Shelf.
    • WSBC: Filed Form S-3ASR Mixed Shelf.
  • Debt Filing/Notes:
    • AYX: Announces Proposed Private Offering of $350 Million of Senior Unsecured Notes Due 2028.
    • CANO: Closing of $150 Million Term Loan Facility with Diameter Capital Partners and Rubicon Founders.
    • WMB: Prices $1.50 Billion of Senior Notes.
  • Tender Offer: None of note.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed:
    • ECPG: Announces Proposed Convertible Senior Notes Offering.
    • TPIC: Proposed Offering of $100 Million Convertible Senior Notes.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: PGNY +12%, HIMS +9%, ZM +8%, VMEO +7%, VRCA +4%, AAON +4% of note.
    • Trading Down: TPIC -17%, AHCO -16%, AMRC -9%, EVER -8%, TTEC -8%, NEWT -7%, FTAI -5%, DAR -5%, NGVT -5%, UHS -4% of note.
  • News After The Close:   
    • Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: ZM, OXY, WDAY, HIMS (CNBC)
    • Zoom (ZM) shares jump on better-than-expected fourth-quarter results. (CNBC)
    • Hims and Hers (HIMS) stock rallies after Q4 beat, subscriber data. Television ads worked. (MarketWatch)
    • Acadia Healthcare (ACHC) shares fall on mixed-bag results, forecasts. (MarketWatch)
    • META builds an A-team focused on AI products. (Reuters)
    • Robinhood (RH) Subpoenaed by SEC Over Brokerage’s Crypto Business. (Bloomberg)
    • White House sets deadline for purging TikTok from federal workers’ cell phones. (Reuters)
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Advance Auto (AAP) CEO Tom Greco plans to retire at the end of the year.
    • Farmland Partners (FPI) elevates Luca Fabbri to CEO.
    • Harsco Corporation (HSC) Announces Election of Timothy Laurion to Its Board of Directors and Resignation of Mario Longhi as Director.
    • LogicMark, Inc. (LGMK) to Adjourn Special Meeting of Stockholders.
    • Mercer International Inc. (MERC) Announces Resignation of Its CFO, David Ure, and Promotion of Richard Short to CFO.
    • Oceaneering Intl (OII) Announces McEvoy to Succeed Collins as Chairman of The Board of Directors following the 2023 Annual Meeting of Shareholders.
    • Primerica (PRI) CFO Alison Rand to retire on or about April 1, 2024.
    • Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR) Announces Receipt of Exchange Notice, Intent to Use Common Shares to Satisfy Exchange and Commencement of Secondary Offering of Common Shares.
    • Singularity Future Technology (SGLY) Announces Receipt of Nasdaq Notice of Additional Staff Determination.
    • STRATA Skin Sciences (SSKN) Announces Regaining Compliance with NASDAQ’S Minimum Price Rule.
    • Workday (WDAY) Appoints Co-president & Board Members.
  • Buyback Announcements or News:
    • Chevron (CVX) raises share buyback guidance to $10-20 billion per year.
    • First Advantage Corp. (FA) Board approved $50 million increase to co’s buyback program.
    • Metalpha Technology Holding Limited (MATH) Announces US$5 Million Share Repurchase.
    • OXY Authorizes New $3 billion Share Buyback.
    • ROVR: Announces Share Repurchase Program.
    • MultiPlan (MPLN) has approved a new share repurchase program authorizing the Company to repurchase up to $100 million of its Class A common stock through December 31, 2023.
    • Banco Santander (SAN) Increasing the shareholder payout policy from c.40% to c.50% in 2023-2025 through both cash dividends and share buybacks.
  • Stock Splits or News: None of note.
  • Dividends Announcements or News:
    • Banco Santander (SAN) (see Buyback)
    • FS KKR Capital (FSK) declared a total cash distribution for the first quarter of $0.70 per share, consisting of a base distribution of $0.64 per share and a supplemental distribution of $0.06 per share.
    • GS Goes ex div tomorrow for $2.50.
    • Ituran (ITRN) Location And Control Ltd Announces Distribution Of A $3 Million Dividend.
    • OXY Increases Dividend 38% TO $0.18 per share.
    • QCOM Goes ex div tomorrow for $0.75.

What’s Happening This MorningFutures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 +15, Dow Jones +110,  NASDAQ +57, and Russell 2000 +7. (as of 8:01 a.m. EST).  Asia higher and Europe higher ex FTSE. VIX Futures are at 21.11 from 21.85  yesterday.  Gold and Silver higher with Copper lower. WTI Crude Oil and Brent higher with Natural Gas lower. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 3.94% unchanged from yesterday. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower versus the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $23,445 from $23.410 yesterday, higher by  0.79%.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Consumer Cyclical, Industrials, Basic materials, Communication Services of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Utilities of note.
  • One Month Winners:  Technology,  Industrials of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Consumer Cyclical, Technology, Financial of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Basic Materials, Financial, Industrial of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy, Industrial, Utilities of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Communication Services of note.

A rebound in shares of fast-growing technology firms helped U.S. stock indexes eke out gains Monday after logging their worst week of the year.   Consumer discretionary, industrial and information technology shares led the S&P 500 higher, while so-called safety stocks in utilities, healthcare and consumer staples declined.   The S&P 500 gained 12.20 points, or 0.3%, to close at 3982.24, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 72.17 points, or 0.2%, to end at 32889.09. The Nasdaq Composite increased 72.04 points, or 0.6%, to 11466.98. (WSJ – edited by QPI)

Click here for a video explanation of Erlanger Value Lines.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Tuesday After the Close:


  • Wednesday Before the Open:

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: AZO +2.73, BLDR +0.90, BEAM +0.80, INSW +0.74, TGT +0.49, AAP +0.46, NFE +0.33, SRE +0.31, KTB +0.21, XRAY +0.13, AUPH +0.09, SJM +0.08, FOUR +0.08, DK +0.07, BMO +0.06, GOGO +0.05, IGT +0.04, TILE +0.04, SEAS +0.03, SHC +0.03, ECVT +0.02, APG +0.02, OLPX +0.01, TWKS +0.01, BSY +0.01, FA +0.01, SKIN +0.01 of note.
  • Flat: WRBY, PLTK of note.
  • Misses: NXST (2.85), AMWD (0.32), EHTH (0.29), JLL (0.23), NCLH (0.20), SWTX (0.18), BNS (0.17), OMI (0.12), ADT (0.11), FRO (0.06), RDNT (0.04), SRC (0.03), DORM (0.02), DEA (0.01), HAYW (0.01) of note.
  • Still to Report: BKI, CBRL, EXPI, HSKA, PCRX, PRFT of note.


  • Positive Guidance: ACHC, HLIO, HIMS, OKE, NGVT, TILE, XRAY, RDNT, AAP, KTB, SJM, SKIN, EHTH of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: VRCA +24%, PGNY +14%, HIMS +9%, FGEN +9%, ZM +6%, IIPR +5%, PRAA +5%, HCM +5%, SRC +4%, SAN +4%, AAON +4% of note.
  • Gap Down: AHCO -18%, TPIC -14%, NEWT -9%, EVER -8%, TWKS -7%, TTEC -6%, ROVR -6%, ALLT -6%, AMRC -5%, UHS -5%, DQ -5%, TASK -5%, OVV -4%, BMRN -4% of note.

Insider Action: No stock sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  No stock sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Stocks Making the Biggest Pre-Market Moves: DISH, TGT, ZM, DKS, NCLH, ARNC. CELH, NCLH, WDAY, HIMS, AAP (CNBC)
  • 5 things to know before the stock market opens today. (CNBC)
  • 5 Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story:  Powell’s Debt Limit Alarm Echoes Stealth Lobbying Effort By Him in 2011. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Read StoryHong Kong Ends Mask Mandate After 945 Days. (Bloomberg)
  • White House denies that Covid-19 consensus that the virus came from Chinese Lab despite Energy Department comments. (WSJ)
  • ECB feels the heat as France and Spain see inflation pop 7.2% in France and 6.1% in Spain on consumer prices. (Bloomberg)
  • Apple (AAPL) suppliers are racing to leave China. (Bloomberg)
  • Investors build bets says Citigroup on U.S. stock futures after last week’s action. (Bloomberg)
  • Target (TGT) beats but issues weak guidance. (Bloomberg)
  • Autozone (AZO) fails to beat estimates with a narrow miss. (MarketWatch)

Moving Average Update:

  • Score improves to 40% from 28%.


  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President receives the President’s Daily Brief, 9:00 a.m. EST
    • The President departs the White House en route to Joint Base Andrews, 12:40 p.m. EST
    • The President departs Joint Base Andrews en route to Virginia Beach, Virginia, 1:00 p.m. EST
    • Principal Deputy Press Secretary Olivia Dalton will speak aboard Air Force One en route Virginia Beach, Virginia, 1:15 p.m. EST
    • The President arrives in Virginia Beach, Virginia, 1:45 p.m. EST
    • The President discusses his plan to protect Americans’ access to affordable health care, and highlights how Congressional Republicans would raise health care costs – including for seniors, and cause millions of people to lose their coverage, 3:00 p.m. EST
    • The President departs Virginia Beach, Virginia en route to Joint Base Andrews, 4:25 p.m. EST
    • The President arrives at Joint Base Andrews, 5:15 p.m. EST
    • The President arrives at the White House, 5:35 p.m. EST


  • Int. Trade in Goods 8:30 a.m. EST
  • Wholesale Inventories 8:30 a.m. EST
  • Redbook Sales 8:55 a.m. EST
  • December Case-Schiller Home Price Index is due out at 9:00 a.m. EST and expected to fall to 5.80% from 6.80%.
  • FHFA HPI 9:00am ET
  • February Chicago PMI is due out at 9:45 a.m. EST and is expected to rise to 45 from 44.3.
  • February Consumer Confidence is due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and is expected to rise to 108.40 from 107.10.
  • Richmond Fed Mfg Index 10:00 a.m. EST
  • Farm Prices 3:00 p.m. EST

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:

  • Federal Reserve Chicago President Austan Goolsbee speaks 2:30 p.m. EST

M&A Activity:

  • Ameresco (AMRC) Announces Acquisition of Enerqos to Expand Presence in Europe.
  • Methode Electronics (MEI) Announces a Cash Offer to Acquire Nordic Lights Group Corporation.
  • Ranger Oil (ROCC) Enters into Definitive Merger Agreement with Baytex Energy (BTECA:BTE).

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Bank of America Securities Power, Utilities and Clean Energy Conference (02/28/23-03/02/23)
    • Barclays Power & Utility Credit Corporate Day 2023
    • Credit Suisse London Global Healthcare Conference 2023 (02/28/23-03/01/23)
    • Credit Suisse Energy Summit
    • Deutsche Bank Media, Internet & Telecom Conference
    • H.C. Wainwright Cell Therapy Conference
    • Jefferies Interactive Entertainment Conference
    • KBW Fintech Payments Conference (02/28/23-03/02/23)
    • Wells Fargo West Coast Biotech Tour
    • Wolfe Research “March Madness” Software Conference (02/28/23-03/01/23)
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • Deutsche Bank dbaccess 31st Annual Media, Internet and Telecom Conference 2023 (02/27/23-03/01/23)
        • Morgan Stanley European MedTech & Services Conference 2023 (02/27/23-03/01/23)
        • Morgan Stanley Renewables Conference (02/27/23-03/01/23)
        • BMO Capital Markets 32nd Global Metals & Mining Conference 2023 (02/26/23-03/01/23)
        • Credit Suisse 28th Annual Vail Summit 2023 (02/26/23-03/01/23)
        • Credit Suisse Energy Summit
        • Truist Securities Texas Bank Summit
  • Company Meetings: AGFY, AMRN, ARYA, DFLI, FFIE
  • Fireside Chat: VBIV.
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event:
    • RE/MAX (RMAX) R4 Convention 2023. (02/27/23-03/01/23)
  • Industry Meetings:

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

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