The Daily Briefing For December 11th: Stocks Struggling

by Geoff Garbacz | 12/11/2020 12:35 PM

Rebel Yell Morning Market Report

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The Daily Briefing For December 11th: Stocks Struggling

Market Tone:  Lots of back and forth the last couple of weeks after the initial bounce off the September lows followed by October weakness into month’s end. Since 11/4 close, the S&P has not rallied for more than two days before some selling and the longest losing streak is two days, yet the S&P 500 has gained almost 150 points since then.

On the Lookout For: Watch for action against Iran before the holidays. Our intelligence is picking up some military movements.

Covid-19 Statistics: 

Total Cases 15,360,841 from 15,142,845

Deaths 283,555 from 280,454

New Tests 1,954,686 from 1,790,392

New Cases 215,669 from 211,027 with positivity rate of 11.0% (down 0.7)

Daily Deaths 3,067

Current Hospitalizations 107,258 from 106,688

Capital Raises:

IPOs Priced: Nanobiotix (NBTX) priced at $13.50 per share at low end of expected range of $13.50 to $14.50.  4D Molecular Therapeutics (FDMT) priced at $23 which is the high end of the expected range of $22 to $23.

Secondaries Priced: OPCH FMTX LXRX PTGX SE  of note.

Notes Priced of note: None of note.

Common Stock filings: NSSC NIO AMC of note.

Selling Shareholders of note:  of note.

Mixed Shelf Offerings: HPE of note.

Convertible Offering Files:  PEB of note.

Senior Notes Filed: None of note.

Earnings Out After The Close:

Beats: COST +0.36, LULU +0.28, NX +0.21, AVGO +0.15, PLAY +0.08, ORCL +0.06

Flat:  none

Misses: MTN (0.16)

News After The Close (sorted by time starting at the close):

Vail Resorts (MTN) is expecting material declines in visits to the resort this winter.

Scientific Games (SGMS) moves into Morocco to supply instant lottery games.

Walt Disney (DIS) sees streaming services hit 86.8 million users. Europe Disney + will be 9 Euros.

FDA recommends approval of Pfizer (PFE) for Emergency Use Authorization (EUA).

Nintendo (NTDOY) Switch sells 1.35 million units in November.

Dividend Increase:  AIN AVGO BMY CNP EIX MCFE PFE PKG TRN UHAL (special dividend $2) UTZ 

Raises Guidance:  AVGO LULU NX ORCL

Lowers Guidance: 

Stock Buyback New Or Increase: LULU BY

Hourly Action: Forget about owning stocks from 1:00 p.m. EST onward.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value. We will still indicate the fair value direction.

S&P 500 -25    Dow Jones Industrial Average -149   NASDAQ -81 Russell 2000 -13. Fair values are mixed to lower. Asia mixed and Europe lower. VIX is at 25.25 from 24.39 this morning in futures. VIX closed at 22.37 from 21.91 9  and the three month futures at 25.05 from 24.73 .

Gold and silver higher with copper lower. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures lower. Natural Gas is higher. $ is lower vs Euro, higher vs Pound and lower vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury price is at $138.05 from $137.69 with the yield at 0.893% from 0.931%.

Positive Sectors On Thursday: Energy, Materials and Consumer Cyclical of note.

Negative Sectors On Thursday: Industrials, Real Estate and Consumer Defensive of note. 

One Month Winners: Energy, Financials Real Estate and Industrials  of note.

Three Month Winners: Industrials, Communication Services, Utilities and Financials of note.

Six Month Winners: Consumer Cyclical, Industrials, Technology and Materials of note.

Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Communication Services and Healthcare of note.

Year to Date: Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Communication Services, Healthcare and Materials of note.

Upcoming Earnings Of: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

Today After the Close: None of note.

Monday Before the Open: None of note.

Earnings This Morning Of Note:

Beats: none

Flat: none

Misses: none

Still to Report: ROAD

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart –  Updated 12/10 Close. An impressive run that could be ending today?

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

Gap Up:

TPGY +161%, GIK +22%, DVAX +9%, XERS +9%, DIS +7%, APRN +7%, AHT +6%, LAKE +5%, NX +5%

Gap Down:

NSSC -12%, OPCH -10%, GLSI -9%, AMC -7%, NIO -6%, SRG -5%, QCOM -4%

Rags & Mags: Highlighted Stories may be clicked through to the original story. 

Stocks Making The Biggest Moves – TSLA NKE LUV DIS DAL. (CNBC)

5 things to know before the market opens. (CNBC)

Biggest analyst calls of the day. (CNBC Pro)

Coronavirus Update:  U.S. to authorize Pfizer vaccine. (CNBC)

Stimulus update. (WSJ)

Brief government shutdown could be coming as Rand Paul (R- KY) and several others want to shut down government as they want NDAA delayed. However, it has to be passed before the Continuing Resolution. (The Hill)

Majority of Republicans in the House now support the Texas Lawsuit to stall electoral college vote. (The Hill)

FDA to approve  Pfizer (PFE) vaccine over the weekend. (NY Times)

Apple (AAPL) delays return of employees to office until June of 2021. (Bloomberg)

Stock Index Trading:

Current through 12/10 close. Overall confidence moves from 83% to 77%.

Bold means a change from prior day.

Economic:

November PPI is due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and is expected to fall to 0.2% from 0.3%.

December University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment is due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and is expected to fall to 75 from 76.9.

Geopolitical & Related:

President Trump 

The President has no events scheduled.

Federal Reserve Governor Randall Quarles speaks at 12:40 a.m. EST.

Investor Meetings & Conferences of Note:

PNW (Investor Day) CUBI  (Conference Call) PRTC  (R&D Day)

Sellside Conferences:  Bank of America Water Conference ( 12/10-12/11) Barclays Global TMT Conference (12/9-12/11) Piper Sandler P.S. It’s The Friday Series: The Future of Home & Housing 2020 (12/11) Roth Capital Deer Valley Consumer Conference (12/9-12/11)

Industry Conferences: SEMICON Japan (12/11-12/18)

M&A:

Universal Forest (UFPI) to buy PalletOne for $232 million.

Leidos (LDOS) to buy 1901 Group for $215 million.

Upgrades & Downgrades:  A quiet day to end the week.

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