The Daily Briefing For August 2nd: Fitch Downgrades The U.S., Stocks Off Overnight Lows But Still Down

by Geoff Garbacz | 08/02/2023 8:33 AM

Rebel Yell Morning Market Report

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The Daily Briefing For August 2nd: Fitch Downgrades The U.S., Stocks Off Overnight Lows But Still Down

Overnight SummaryThe S&P 500 closed Tuesday lower by -0.27% at 4576.73 from Monday higher by 0.15% at 4588.96 . Overnight ranges saw the high hit at 4593.50 at 9:20 p.m. EDT while the low was hit at 4552.25 at 4:20 a.m. EDT. The range overnight was 41 points. The 10-day average of the overnight range is at 23.30 from 20.20 yesterday.  The average for May/June/July average was 18.81 from 19.94 in May/June. Currently, the S&P 500 is lower by -22.50 points and by -0.49% at 7:25 a.m. EDT.

Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats: CZR +3.93, CACC +2.51, MSTR +1.71, AIZ +1.58, TX +1.24, TEX +0.69, ELF +0.53, CDLX +0.49, EA +0.48, ANDE +0.43, KAI +0.40, PXD +0.40, UIS +0.38, MATX +0.34, OMCL +0.29, AXS +0.26, CHK +0.24, VOYA +0.21, EHC +0.20, UNM +0.20, INSP +0.16, AIG +0.16, PEN +0.15, AFL +0.14, EXEL +0.14, STE +0.14, COLM +0.13, VMEO +0.13, FLS +0.12, NMIH +0.10, SEDG +0.09, PINS +0.09, VREX +0.09, HMN +0.08, KWR +0.08, BXP +0.07, SFM +0.07, MGY +0.06, SBUX +0.05, FRSH +0.05, SPCE +0.05, BLKB +0.05, JBT +0.05, BFAM +0.04, OI +0.04, SILK +0.04, LMAT +0.04, MTCH +0.04, VRTX +0.03, ULCC +0.03, PECO +0.03, ALIT +0.02, PAYC +0.02, LUMN +0.02, OLO +0.02, EXAS +0.02, FCPT +0.02, FE +0.02, SCI +0.02, AMD +0.01, DEI +0.01, NUS +0.01, SHLS +0.01, SKY +0.01, ROVR +0.01 of note.
  • Flat: CCCS , DVN , NVRO , SAFE of note.
  • Misses: ALL (0.25), LFUS (0.23), MLNK (0.11), PRU (0.08), CWH (0.05), MOS (0.05), AZPN (0.04), AXTA (0.03), VFC (0.03), APAM (0.02), WTI (0.02), DENN (0.02), HPP (0.02) of note.

Unusual Options Activity:

Daily Screen in Erlanger Chartroom that highlights unusual Call and Put Options activity in the S&P 500.  It looks for volume outliers relative to the Open interest in Calls or puts.  Usually, the stock price activity reflects the outlier situation (earnings/buyout/announcement), but once in a while, you can uncover stocks prior to a pop or drop.


Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News: None of note.
  • Secondaries Priced:
    • PRCT: Prices offering of 4,422,169 shares of its common stock at $33.92 per share.
    • TARS: Pricing of $100.0 Million Underwritten Public Offering of Common Stock. Priced @$17.50.
  • Notes Priced of note:
    • CNP: Announces Pricing of Offering of $900 Million of 4.25% Convertible Senior Notes Due 2026.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • ACRX: Form S-3 Filed Up to 5,340,591 Shares of Common Stock.
    • FNGR: Filed Form RW.
    • INZY: Announces Closing of Public Offering of Common Stock.
    • MSTR: Filed Form 424B5.. Up to $750,000,000 Class A Common Stock.
    • PRCT: Announces Proposed Offering of Common Stock.
    • PTC: Pricing of Secondary Offering of Common Stock by Selling Stockholder – 5,830,905 shares @$141.75.
    • TNXP: Announces Closing of $7 Million Public Offering.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • CLS: Announces proposed secondary offering of subordinate voting shares by Onex Corporation (ONEXF).
    • PTC: Announces Secondary Offering of Common Stock by Selling Stockholder 5,830,905 shares. (GS Underwriter)
    • SYM: Files for 548,613,159 shares of common stock by selling shareholders. (See Mixed Shelf also)
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • NAOV: Filed Form S-3.. $50,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
    • OPAL: Files mixed shelf securities offering.
    • RPM: Files mixed shelf securities offering.
    • SYM: Files mixed shelf securities offering.
  • Debt/Credit Filing and Notes:
    • AMPY: Announces Closing of New Revolving Credit Facility.
    • FBRX: Announces $25 Million Financing and R&D Update for FB-102.
    • FYBR: Announces $1.6 Billion Fiber Securitization Offering and $500 Million Variable Funding Notes Commitment.
  • Tender Offer: None of note.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close and Over the Holiday:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: CDLX +21%, POWL +19%, ELF +17%, ROVR +16%, FRSH +12%, MTCH +11%, AZPN +10%, OLO +10%, OMCL +8%, VMEO +7%, MDXG +7%, HMST +6%, MGY +5%, UIS +5%, TEX +5%, ERIE +4%, PAG +4%, EHC +4%, AMD +4%, FLS +4%, INSP +4% of note.
    • Trading Down: CMBM -24%, MLNK -18%, AXTA -13%, SEDG -12%, TMC -11%, NVRO -10%, PEN -9%, PAYC -8%, SHLS -8%, SKY -8%, CWH -7%, DEI -7%, LUMN -7%, BXC -6%, ALIT -6%, COLM -5%, BFAM -4%, EXAS -4%, CACC -4%, LFUS -4%, OI -4%, SILK -4% of note.
  • News Items After the Close:
    • Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: SEDG, AMD, SBUX, CZR, SPCE, ELF, MTCH (CNBC)
    • HomeStreet Bank (HMST) Is Said to Explore Options Including Sale. (Bloomberg)
    • Starbucks (SBUX) Revenue Misses Estimates as Its US Growth Slips. (Bloomberg)
    • Shares of RV retailer Camping World Holdings (CWH) fall after results miss estimates. (MarketWatch)
    • Match Group (MTCH) stock rallies 14% after company swings to profit, revenue rises 4% (MarketWatch)
    • Elf Beauty (ELF) stock jumps more than 14% after beat-and-raise for beauty company (MarketWatch)
    • AMD Tops Earnings Estimates, Makes AI Inroads. (Bloomberg)
      • AMD CEO: “We delivered strong results in the second quarter as 4th Gen EPYC and Ryzen 7000 processors ramped significantly. Our AI engagements increased by more than seven times in the quarter…”
      • AMD CFO: “Looking to Q3 23, we expect our Data Center and Client segment revenues to each grow by a double-digit percentage sequentially driven by increasing demand for our EPYC and Ryzen processors, partially offset by Gaming and Embedded segment declines”
    • Fitch Downgrades US’ Long-Term Ratings To ‘AA+’ From ‘AAA’; Outlook Stable (Announcement) (WSJ):
      • Fitch Notes U.S. ‘Erosion of Governance Relative to ‘AA’ and ‘AAA’ Rated Peers Over the Last Two Decades That Has Manifested in Repeated Debt Limit Standoffs and Last-Minute Resolutions’
      • U.S. ‘Repeated Debt-Limit Political Standoffs and Last-Minute Resolutions Have Eroded Confidence in Fiscal Management’
      • Fitch Sees U.S. Annual Real GDP Growth Slowing to 1.2% This Yr From 2.1% in 2022
      • US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen calls Fitch downgrade ‘arbitrary’ and ‘outdated. (TreasuryRelease)
      • Mohamed El-Erian former head of PIMCO noted, “In a strange move, #Fitch just downgraded the US sovereign #ratings from AAA to AA+, with a stable outlook. The #rating agency’s justification is set out in this statement. I am very puzzled by many aspects of this announcement, as well as by the timing. I suspect I won’t be the only one. The vast majority of economists and market analysts looking at this are likely to be equally perplexed by the reasons cited and the timing.  Overall, this announcement is much more likely to be dismissed than have a lasting disruptive impact on the US #economy and #markets.” (EL ERIAN Tweet)
    • Trump indicted by Special Counsel over efforts to overturn 2020 election (MarketWatch):
      • Trump was charged with conspiracy to defraud the US, conspiracy to obstruct an official proceeding, obstruction of and attempting to obstruct an official proceeding, and conspiracy against rights, according to the indictment filed Tuesday in federal court.
      • Trump summoned to appear in federal court in D.C. on Thursday at 4 p.m. EDT – (Reuters)
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Index Changes:
      • Penske Automotive (PAG) and Erie Indemnity (ERIE) to join S&P MidCap 400.
    • AmerisourceBergen (ABC): Company will begin operating as Cencora and trading under the ticker symbol “COR,”.
    • Bank of Marin Bancorp (BMRC) Announces Executive Leadership Changes.
    • BVXV: Nasdaq Grants BiondVax Extension to Regain Compliance with Listing Rules.
    • Dogness Corporation (DOGZ) Announces Appointment of Aihua Cao as Chief Financial Officer.
    • Editas Medicine (EDIT) names Erick Lucera as CFO and Linda C. Burkly, Ph.D., as Chief Scientific Officer.
    • Farfetch (FTCH) names new CFO (MarketWatch)
    • Genius Group (GNS) Is Issued Warning Letter by NYSE.
    • Peraso (PRSO) Receives 180-Day Extension to Regain Compliance with Nasdaq Minimum Bid Price Rule.
    • Presto Automation (PRST) appoints Xavier Casanova as new CEO.
    • RB Global (RBA) appoints Jim Kessler as CEO.
    • Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM) announces retirement of Lawrence Molloy as CFO at the end of 2023.
    • The Children’s Place (PLCE) announces promotions and appointments of key executives.
  • Buyback Announcements or News:
    • Aspen Tech (AZPN) Board authorizes new share repurchase program up to $300 million.
    • Enact (ACT) Announces New $100 Million Share Repurchase Program.
    • NMI Holdings, Inc. (NMIH) Announces Additional $200 Million Share Repurchase Authorization.
    • Voya Financial (VOYA) authorizes repurchase of additional $500 million of common stock. (see Dividend)
  • Stock Splits or News:
    • SMFL trading r/s price.
  • Dividends Announcements or News: 
    • Aflac Incorporated (AFL) Declares Third Quarter Cash Dividend.
    • AmerisourceBergen (ABC) Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.485 per common share.
    • NOG: Declares $0.38 Quarterly Cash Dividend, 10th Consecutive Increase, 52% Increase Year-over-Year, ~3% Sequential Increase over Prior Quarter.
    • Essential Utilities (WTRG) increases quarterly cash dividend 7% to $0.3071 per share from $0.2870.
    • Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) declares a quarterly base-plus-variable cash dividend of $1.84 per share.
    • Sapiens Int’l  (SPNS) Board of Directors has approved the distribution of a cash dividend of $0.26 per share.
    • Voya Financial (VOYA) doubles common stock dividend to $0.40 per share.
    • Clear Secure (YOU) announces quarterly cash dividend of $0.07 per share.
    • Verisk Analytics (VRSK) Board of Directors approved a cash dividend of 34 cents per share.
  • Insider Sales Of Note:
    • HES: COO sold 33414 shares at $151.33 worth ~$5.06 million.

What’s Happening This MorningFutures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 -22, Dow Jones -105,  NASDAQ -110, and Russell 2000 -16.  (as of 7:57 a.m. EDT).  Asia and Europe lower this morning. VIX Futures are at 15.97 from 15.05  yesterday.  Gold and Silver lower with Copper higher this morning. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Crude Oil higher with Natural Gas lower. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 4.015% from 3.981%. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, lower versus the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $29,505 from $28,881 yesterday, higher by 0.91%.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Industrials of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Basic Materials, Utilities, Consumer Cyclical, Energy, Healthcare, Consumer Defensive, Communication Services of note.
  • One Month Winners: Communication Services, Financials, Basic Materials of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Communication Services of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Industrials, Basic Materials of note.
  • Year to Date Winners:  Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical of note.

U.S. stocks pulled back Tuesday, reflecting a pause after an extended rally.  The S&P 500 fell 0.3%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 0.4%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2%, or 71 points.  Tuesday’s declines bucked a recent trend of stock market gains. The S&P 500 has risen for five consecutive months, including a 3.1% gain in July. Investors have grown more optimistic that the Federal Reserve will be able to engineer a so-called soft landing, by bringing inflation to heel while avoiding a significant economic contraction.  The rally began with shares of big technology companies, but has recently expanded to other parts of the market such as industrial and financial stocks. All 11 sectors of the S&P 500 rose in July.  (WSJ – edited by QPI)

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Wednesday After the Close:

  • Thursday Before the Open:

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: BLDR +1.33, BG +1.03, UTHR +0.67, ADNT +0.51, CG +0.50, FDP +0.40, ICPT +0.37, BPMC +0.35, IBP +0.34, DFIN +0.32, BWA +0.30, PSX +0.27, ROCK +0.26, CDW +0.23, EDIT +0.21, WAT +0.21, ASTE +0.19, HUM +0.18, YUM +0.17, ETR +0.16, XYL +0.16, BRY +0.16, FTS +0.16, COCO +0.13, TT +0.12, PERI +0.12, PSN +0.12, ABC +0.10, VRSK +0.10, CVS +0.09, AVA +0.08, YOU +0.08, TRI +0.08, FIS +0.07, CNDT +0.07, ROAD +0.07, CRTO +0.06, JHG +0.05, RGEN +0.05, DT +0.05, CCJ +0.05, CERE +0.04, CLH +0.04, VCEL +0.04, KHC +0.03, TEVA +0.03, TPB +0.03, BLCO +0.03, HAYW +0.03, NVRI +0.03, STNG +0.03, DD +0.02, EXTR +0.02, GRMN +0.02, SITE +0.02, SPNS +0.01, SWTX +0.01, LXP +0.01, SHOO +0.01, XHR +0.01 of note.
  • Flat: CMCO , DNOW , EXC , JCI , NI , RXO of note.
  • Misses: RITM (0.79), SPR (0.75), SUN (0.45), SR (0.39), SMG (0.29), WWE (0.24), EMR (0.18), BGNE (0.17), CHEF (0.12), LPX (0.12), MTRN (0.09), GNRC (0.08), VRT (0.07), CIGI (0.06), TGI (0.06), PUMP (0.06), RCM (0.06), AVDX (0.05), ATI (0.03), RDWR (0.03), DRVN (0.02), IMXI (0.02) of note.
  • Still to Report: ALGT, FTDR, GFF, MIR, NNN, PCRX, RACE, SMP, TTMI, WING of note.



Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: POWL +24%, ROVR +19%, ELF +18%, FRSH +16%, CDLX +16%, VRT +11%, MTCH +11%, OLO +10%, UTHR +7%, MDXG +7%, ERIE +6%, VMEO 6%, PAG +5%, AZPN +5%, FLS +4%, EHC +4%, TEX +4%, MGY +4% of note.
  • Gap Down: CMBM -29%, MLNK -18%, SEDG -12%, TMC -12%, NVRO -11%, CWH -10%, AXTA -10%, SHLS -9%, PEN -9%, LUMN -8%, ALIT -8%, SPCE -8%, GNRC -7%, PAYC -7%, CG -7%, BXC -7%, SKY -6%, EXAS -6%, LFUS -5%, SILK -5%, PRU -5%, BFAM -4%, WTI -4%, SYM -4%, EA -4%, COLM -4%, PINS -4%, OI -4%, JBT -4% of note.

Insider Action:  BFH sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  No stock sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & MagsRepeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Five Things to Know Before The Stock Market Opens This Morning (CNBC)
  • Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: Fitch’s US Credit Downgrade Sparks Criticism and Unease. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Second Most Shared Story: The Ultra Rich are Flourishing and Sticking Around Florida. (Bloomberg)
  • China floats two-hour daily limit of smartphone screen time for kids. (CNBC)
  • US Futures Slide as Fitch Downgrade Rattles Stocks: Markets Wrap. (Bloomberg)
  • Advance Micro Devices (AMD) floats making a Chinese specific chip to comply with export controls by U.S. (CNBC)
  • Emerson (EMR) raises guidance on demand for industrial automation. (Reuters)
  • DuPoint (DD) raises full year forecast on steady demand. (Reuters)
  • NPR Marketplace: According to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover survey for June, fewer workers are quitting their jobs and employers are hiring less. But is it all rock ‘n’ roll for the Federal Reserve’s inflation fight, or will it just end up rocky, with a recession? Turns out, the economic anthem of the moment depends on how you read the data. Then: freight shipping woes, Uber’s first-time profit and a blame game over Britain’s cost-of-living crisis. (Podcast)
  • BBC Global News:  President Trump charged with four counts over 2020 election. (Podcast
  • NY Times Daily:  Charges against Former President Trump. (Podcast)

Moving Average Update:

  • Day 3 at 100%.  Here we go again.


  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • On Wednesday, the President has no public events scheduled, Biden Beach House, Rehoboth Beach, DE


  • MBA Mortgage Applications 7:00 a.m. EDT
    • MBA Mortgage Applications: Composite: -3%, Purchase: -3.2%, ReFi: -2.5%
    • U.S MBA 30-Yr Mortgage Rate Actual: 6.93% VS 6.87% Previous
    • U.S MBA Mortgage Applications (WOW) Actual: -3.0% VS -1.8% Previous
  • July ADP Employment Report is due out at 8:15 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall to 185,000 from 497,000.
  • Treasury Refunding 8:30 a.m. EDT
  • EIA Petroleum Report 10:30 a.m. EDT

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:  None of note.

M&A Activity:

  • Genuine Parts (GPC) announces that its subsidiary, Alliance Automotive Group, acquired Gaudi.
  • Nu Skin (NUS): Rhyz Inc. announces the acquisition of BeautyBio.
  • Schneider National (SNDR) has acquired M&M Transport Services

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences: None of note.
    • Previously posted and ongoing conferences: None of note.
  • Top Shareholder Meetings: AACI, FLEX, KDNY
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: AYROBNGOCTGOMYMDPGRWLDS
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event: None of note.
  • Industry Meetings:

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

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