The Daily Briefing for August 23rd: Stock Futures Higher But Off Morning Highs at 4:15 a.m.

by Geoff Garbacz | 08/23/2023 8:36 AM

Rebel Yell Morning Market Report

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The Daily Briefing for August 23rd: Stock Futures Higher But Off Morning Highs at 4:15 a.m.

Overnight SummaryThe S&P 500 closed Tuesday lower by -0.28% at 4387.55 from Monday higher by 0.69% at 4399.77. Overnight ranges saw the high hit at 4425.25 at 4:15 a.m. EDT while the low was hit at 4398 at 4:35 p.m. EDT. The range overnight was 27 points. The 10-day average of the overnight range is at 27.70 from 27.10 yesterday.  The average for May/June/July average was 18.81 from 19.94 in May/June. Currently, the S&P 500 is higher by +5.75 points and by +0.13% at 7:25 a.m. EDT.

Key Story: NVDA After the Close

  • JPM desk: “.. line in the sand Oct-Q guide feels like $14B but maybe creeping up .. to $14.5B .. would imply +36% q/q topline growth! .. feels a touch high to me, but if it sniffs this, one could argue.. it doesn’t matter if demand will eventually decline next year – still will be rerated higher.” (Carl Q)
  • Shorts have been squeezed out at the beginning of 2023.  Rest of the data is mixed right down the middle.

Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats: TOL +0.88, URBN +0.16, LZB +0.07 of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.

Unusual Options Activity:

Daily Screen in Erlanger Chartroom that highlights unusual Call and Put Options activity in the S&P 500.  It looks for volume outliers relative to the Open interest in Calls or puts.  Usually, the stock price activity reflects the outlier situation (earnings/buyout/announcement), but once in a while, you can uncover stocks prior to a pop or drop.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News:
    • Vahanna Tech Edge Acquisition I Corp. (VHNA) Announces Extension of Deadline to Complete Business Combination.
  • Secondaries Priced: None of note.
  • Notes Priced of note: None of note.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • ALIT: Closing of Secondary Offering.
    • IMMX: Form 8K.. Securities Purchase Agreement.
    • TAOP: Filed Form F-1.. Up to 20,043,394 Ordinary Shares.
    • WISA: Filed Form S-1.. Up to 510,000 Shares of Common Stock Issuable Upon Exercise of Certain Common Stock Purchase Warrants.
  • Direct Offering:
    • JAN: Announces Closing of Registered Direct Offering Priced At-The-Market under Nasdaq Rules.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • DINO: Entered into a Stock Purchase Agreement with Selling Stockholder REH Company (formerly known as The Sinclair Companies).
    • EQT: Filed Form S-3ASR.. 49,599,796 Shares of Common Stock by selling shareholders.
    • NKLA: Filed Form S-3.. Up to 10,266,209 Shares by selling shareholders.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • FBMS: Files $300 million mixed shelf securities offering.
    • STSS: Filed Form S-3… $200 Million Mixed Shelf.
  • Debt/Credit Filing and Notes: None of note.
  • Tender Offer: None of note.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close and Over the Holiday:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: APLS +33%, FIHL +4% of note.
    • Trading Down:  None of note.
  • News Items After the Close:
    • U.S. Commerce Chief Raimondo Visits China Next Week For Talks. (Nikkei)
    • Americans now need to spend 43% of their income to afford a home as mortgage rates surge to a 23-year high. (sm BI)
    • Nike (NKE) Suffers Record Losing Streak on China, Inventory Woes. (Bloomberg)
    • Toll Brothers (TOL) earnings top Wall Street expectations. (MarketWatch)
    • Salesforce (CRM) Leads Financing of AI Startup at More Than $4 Billion Valuation. (TheInformation)
    • Feds probe Qualcomm (QCOM) deal covering microchips for autonomous cars. (Politico)
    • URBN CEO: “We are proud to report record second-quarter sales that helped drive a 72% increase in EPS. Also gratifying is that Q2’s sales strength has continued to date in Q3” (MarketWatch)
    • Walmart (WMT) to start paying states, local governments in opioids settlement. (MarketWatch)
    • UPS unchanged after Teamsters ratify five-year national agreement, according to (CNBC)
    • Hormel Foods (HRL) receives unexpected, unfavorable arbitration ruling related to a commercial dispute; estimated pre-tax impact of $70.0 mln reflected in operating expense in 3Q23.
    • Altria Group (MO) sues Juul over e-vapor patent infringement. (CNBC)
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Advance Auto Parts (AAP) Announces Executive Leadership Changes.
    • Golden Minerals (AUMN) Receives NYSE Acceptance of Plan to Regain Listing Compliance.
    • COMSovereign (COMS) Receives Notice from Nasdaq Regarding Delayed Quarterly Report.
    • Envirotech Vehicles (EVTV) Announces Receipt of Expected Notice from Nasdaq Related to Delayed Filing of Form 10-Q for the Period Ended June 30, 2023.
    • Lifecore Biomedical, Inc. (LFCR) Receives Notice from Nasdaq Regarding Delayed Annual Report.
    • Orbital Infrastructure Group Inc. (OIG) Announces Receipt of Nasdaq Delinquency Letter Regarding Late Filing of Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q.
    • Tempo Automation (TMPO) Receives Nasdaq Notification of Noncompliance with Listing Rule 5250(c)(1).
    • Urban One, Inc. (UONE) Receives NASDAQ Notification of Non-Compliance with Listing Rule 5250(c)(1).
  • Buyback Announcements or News:
    • Driven Brands (DRVN) Announces $50 Million Share Repurchase Authorization.
    • Dycom (DY) Announces Authorization of a New $150 Million Stock Repurchase Program.
  • Stock Splits or News: 
    • IDEX 1-for-125 reverse split.
    • Momentus Inc. (MNTS) Announces Reverse Stock Split.
    • SUNL trading r/s price.
  • Dividends Announcements or News: 
    • First American Financial (FAF) increases its quarterly dividend 2% to $0.53 per share.
  • Insider Sales Of Note: None of note.

What’s Happening This MorningFutures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 +8, Dow Jones +49,  NASDAQ +30, and Russell 2000 +4.  (as of 8:03 a.m. EDT).  Asia is higher ex South Korea and Europe is lower this morning ex FTSE. VIX Futures are at 17.72 from 17.99 yesterday.  Gold, Silver and Copper higher this morning. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Crude Oil lower with Natural Gas lower as well. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 4.257% from 4.318% yesterday. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher versus the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $25,929 from $26,040  yesterday, higher by 0.39%.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Consumer Cyclical of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Financial, Energy, Consumer Defensive of note.
  • One Month Winners: Energy, Communication Services of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Energy, Consumer Cyclical, Industrials of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Communication Services, Technology, Consumer Cyclical of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy, Industrials, Technology of note.
  • Year to Date Winners:  Communication Services, Technology, Consumer Cyclical of note.

Stocks edged lower Tuesday after disappointing earnings reports from retailers cast doubt on the strength of the U.S. consumer.  The cautionary signals landed on a market focused on two events later this week: Wednesday’s quarterly report from Nvidia (NVDA) which could test investors’ faith in the artificial-intelligence trade, and Friday’s speech from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which could hold clues to the path of interest rates.  The S&P 500 declined 0.3%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average retreated 0.5%, or 175 points. The Nasdaq Composite added 0.1% as tech heavyweights including Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) defied the downdraft.  (WSJ – edited by QPI)

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Wednesday After the Close: 

  • Thursday Before the Open:

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: ANF +0.93, DY +0.37, KSS +0.29, BBWI +0.10, GRAB +0.01 of note.
  • Flat: FL of note.
  • Misses: PTON (0.28), AAP (0.26), LANC (0.26), ADI (0.03) of note.
  • Still to Report: WSM of note.


  • Positive Guidance: SCSC, ANF of note.
  • Negative Guidance: ZBH, BBWI, FL, ADI, PTON of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: APLS +30%, URBN +7%, DWAC +4%, FIHL +4% of note.
  • Gap Down: BBWI -8% of note.

Insider ActionMRCY sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  No stock sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & MagsRepeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: NVDA, FL, KSS, PTON, NVAX, APLS, SAFE, DKS (CNBC)
  • 5 Things to Know Before the Stock Market Opens. (CNBC)
  • Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • Stocks Making The Biggest Moves: FL KSS PTON NVAX APLS SAFE. (CNBC)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: DeSantis Faces Make or Break Moment at First GOP Debate. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Shared Story: Goldman is Cracking Down on Employees That Aren’t in The Office 5 Days a Week. (Bloomberg
  • US Futures Rise before Nvidia Results, Bonds Rally: Market Wrap. (Bloomberg)
  • Economic data in Europe just went from bad to worse. (CNBC)
  • Youngest Baby Boomers pay peaked when they hit 45. (Bloomberg)
  • Foot Locker (FL) shares plunge 30% as it slashes guidance and blames “consumer softness”. (CNBC)
  • Peloton shares drop -25% after posting widen than expected loss on falling sales. (CNBC)
  • Mortgage demand drops to a 28-year low as interest rates soar. (CNBC)
  • NPR Marketplace: Inflation is cooling and real wages are improving, which is good news. But after losing ground to rising prices for so long, low-income households are struggling to catch up financially, leaving them vulnerable to an economic slowdown. Plus, the U.S. dollar weakens as other countries hike interest rates, and the real estate refrain “you can always refinance” stages a comeback. (Podcast)
  • BBC Global News: Cable car rescue in Pakistan. (Podcast
  • NY Times The Daily: San Francisco streets are buzzing with driverless cars. (Podcast)
  • Bloomberg: The Big Take: The latest AI scams look and sound just like you. (Podcast)
  • Wealthion: No fear on Wall Street? What the options market is really telling us. (Podcast)

Moving Average Update:

  • The song Score remains the same, 31%.


  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • On Wednesday, the President has no public events scheduled.


  • MBA Mortgage Applications were out at 7:00 a.m. EDT.
    • MBA Mortgage Applications: Composite: -4.2%, Purchase: -5%, ReFi: -2.8%
    • US 30-YR Fixed Mortgage Rate Junmps to 7.31%, HIGHEST SINCE 2000
    • US MBA Home Purchase Applications drop to lowest since 1995
    • U.S MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate Actual: 7.31% VS 7.16% Previous
    • U.S MBA Mortgage Applicaitons (WoW) Actual: -4.2% VS -0.8% Previous
  • August S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI is due out at 9:45 a.m. EDT and came in last month at 49.
  • August S&P Global U.S. Services PMI is also due out at 9:45 a.m. EDT and came in last month at 52.30.
  • July New Home Sales are due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to rise to 701,000 from 697,000.
  • EIA petroleum Report 10:30 a.m. EDT

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers: None of note.

M&A Activity and News: 

  • Dycom (DY) Announces Acquisition of Bigham Cable Construction, Inc.
  • Parsons (PSN) announces that it has acquired Sealing Technologies in a transaction valued at up to $200 million.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences: None of note.
    • Three Part Advisors 14th Annual Midwest IDEAS Conference 2023 (08/23/23-08/24/23)
    • Janney Montgomery Clean Energy Investor Event 2023
    • Macquarie ASEAN Conference 2023 (08/23/23-08/24/23)
    • Wolfe Research Consumer Conference
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • Citi Midstream / Energy Infrastructure Conference (08/22/23-08/23/23)
        • Needham Virtual Semiconductor & SemiCap (08/22/23-08/23/23)
        • Rosenblatt Technology Summit: Age of AI Scaling (08/22/23-08/24/23)
        • Seaport Summer Investor Virtual Conference (08/22/23-08/23/23)
        • Santander 23rd Annual Brazil Conference 2023 (08/17/23-08/23/23)
        • JP Morgan Brazil Consumer & Healthcare Checkup
        • Truist Atlanta Bank Summit
  • Top Shareholder Meetings: None of note.
  • Fireside Chat: FTK.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: AMOT, NKE, PLUG, SLAB
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event:
  • Industry Meetings:
    • International Meeting on Information Display

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

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