The Daily Briefing For August 17th: Yields Spiking

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Wednesday lower by -0.76% at 4404.33 from Tuesday lower by -1.16% at 4437.86. Overnight ranges saw the high hit at 4431.25 at 6:30 a.m. EDT while the low was hit at 4409.50 at 9:25 p.m. EDT. The range overnight was 22 points. The 10-day average of the overnight range is at 27.90 from 29.40 yesterday.  The average for May/June/July average was 18.81 from 19.94 in May/June. Currently, the S&P 500 is higher by +9.75 points and by 0.22% at 7:25 a.m. EDT.

Earnings Out After The Close: 

• Beats: AVT +0.41, SNPS +0.14, CSCO +0.08, STNE +0.08, PYCR +0.03 of note.
• Flat: None of note.
• Misses: SQM (0.41), WOLF (0.22) of note.

Unusual Options Activity:

Daily Screen in Erlanger Chartroom that highlights unusual Call and Put Options activity in the S&P 500.  It looks for volume outliers relative to the Open interest in Calls or puts.  Usually, the stock price activity reflects the outlier situation (earnings/buyout/announcement), but once in a while, you can uncover stocks prior to a pop or drop.

Capital Raises:

• IPOs Priced or News:
  • SRM Entertainment, Inc. (SRM) Announces Closing of Its Initial Public Offering.
• New SPACs launched/News:
  • Nabors Energy Transition Corp. (NETC) Announces Extension of Deadline to Complete Business Combination.
• Secondaries Priced:
  • ARHS: Prices secondary offering of 12 million shares of common stock at $10.00 per share.
  • ASUR: Prices offering of 3,333,333 newly issued shares being sold by Asure at $12.00 per share.
  • EMKR: Announces Pricing of $15.8 Million Public Offering. The offering price to the public in the offering was $0.50 per share of common stock.
  • QSR: Prices secondary offering of 7,136,149 common shares.
• Notes Priced of note:
  • AGO: Announces Pricing of $350 Million Senior Notes Offering.
  • APO: Prices Offering of Fixed-Rate Resettable Junior Subordinated Notes.
• Common Stock filings/Notes:
  • ALIT: Secondary Offering. 22.5Million shares. (JPM, BAC and MS Bookmanagers)
  • ASUR: Public Offering of Common Stock. (Stifel and CraigHallum bookmanagers)
  • BHAT: Announced the completion of an issuance of a total of $29.8 million US of ordinary shares.
  • CREX: Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock. (Alliance Global agent)
  • EMKR: Proposed Public Offering. (CraigHallum bookmanager)
  • FUV: Announces $6.7 Million Series D Preferred Stock and Warrant Offering.
  • KULR: Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock. (Benchmark and Freedom Capital bookmanagers)
  • WHF: Commences Public Offering of Note.
• Direct Offering:
  • BXRX: Announces $1.9 Million Registered Direct Offering Priced At-The-Market under Nasdaq Rules.
• Selling Shareholders of note: None of note.
• Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
• Mixed Shelf Offerings:
  • AMEH: Filed Form S-3ASR.. Mixed Shelf.
  • APP: Form 8K — Prospected supplement on shelf registration.
  • XHR: Filed prospectus supplement to its shelf registration statement on Form S-3 relating to the its existing $200 mln “at the market” program.
• Debt/Credit Filing and Notes: None of note.
• Tender Offer: None of note.
• Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close and Over the Holiday:

• After Hours: 
  • Trading Up: AVT +6%, CHK +6% of note.
  • Trading Down: KULR -32%, WOLF -12%, ASUR -11%, LOVE -7%, PYCR -4% of note.
• News Items After the Close:
  • Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: CSCO, SNPS, WOLF, HE (CNBC)
  • Hawaiian Electric (HE) is in talks with financial restructuring professionals. (WSJ)
  • Steel union head calls ArcelorMittal bid for US Steel (X) ‘foolish’. (Reuters)
  • Bond Yield Hits Highest Since 2008, Adding Pressure to Borrowing Costs. (WSJ)
  • Avnet’s (AVT) stock jumps as results and forecast beat estimates. (MarketWatch)
  • Wolfspeed’s (WOLF) stock sinks as silicon-carbide chip company sees swelling losses. (MarketWatch)
  • The housing market has hit ‘rock bottom,’ says Redfin (RDFN) CEO Glenn Kelman (MarketWatch)
  • AAPL acquisition of ESPN would be a ‘no brainer’ – Wedbush – We believe the answer and the shoe that fits for Apple is the golden ESPN assets which potentially may be on the table in one form or another as Iger and the Board strategically and carefully look at Disney’s core assets over the coming months….ESPN as an acquisition or strategic partnership to Apple a no brainer. There is only one asset in our opinion that would accomplish this goal and it potentially could be on the table depending on the Disney strategic overview and ultimately where Iger and the Board land on this asset.

• Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
  • AdaptHealth (AHCO) discloses newly appointed CEO lawsuit.
  • Chesapeake Energy (CHK) will replace Mercury Systems (MRCY) in the S&P MidCap 400.  Mercury Systems will replace Arconic (ARNC) in the S&P SmallCap 600. (MarketWatch)
  • Electriq Power (ELIQ) Announces New Addition to its Board of Directors.
  • Ideanomics (IDEX) Announces Receipt of Notice from Nasdaq Regarding Late Filing of Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q.
  • James Hardie (JHX) appoints Rachel Wilson appointed as CFO.
  • Kenvue (KVUE): Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) announces final exchange ratio of 8.0324 in split-off of Kenvue Inc.
  • Kronos Bio (KRON) Announces Departure of Chief Financial Officer and Head of Corporate Development.
  • Powerbridge Technologies Co., Ltd. (PBTS) Announces Receipt of Nasdaq Notification Letter Regarding Minimum Bid Price Deficiency.
  • Synopsys (SNPS) announced last night Sassine Ghazi to assume President and CEO.
  • SPIR: Leo Basola Joins Spire Global as Chief Financial Officer.
  • Walmart International (WMT) CEO Judith McKenna to retire. (MarketWatch)
• Buyback Announcements or News:
  • Chegg (CHGG) Announces Increased Authorization of Securities Repurchase Program by $200 million.
  • Mullen Automotive (MULN) Starts Stock Buyback Program.
  • Ponce Financial Group, Inc. (PDLB) Announces Completion of Share Repurchase Program.
  • Wingstop (WING) approved new $250 mln share repurchase program effective immediately.
• Stock Splits or News:
  • AKTX trading r/s price.
• Dividends Announcements or News: 
  • Cboe Global Markets (CBOE) Declares Increased Third-Quarter 2023 Dividend.  10% increase to $0.55 per share.
  • DOLE: Declared a cash dividend for 2Q 2023 of $0.08 per share
  • Winnebago Industries (WGO) Board of Directors Approves 15% increase to Quarterly Cash Dividend. (MarketWatch)
• Insider Sales Of Note:
  • ANI Pharma (ANIP): CFO sold 17639 shares at $61.37 worth ~$1.08 million.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 +11, Dow Jones +50,  NASDAQ +47, and Russell 2000 +10.  (as of 8:01 a.m. EDT).  Asia and Europe are lower this morning. VIX Futures are at 17.85 from 17.18 yesterday.  Gold lower while Silver and Copper higher this morning. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Crude Oil higher with Natural Gas lower. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 4.294% from 4.19% yesterday. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower versus the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $28,485 from $29,144 yesterday, lower by -2.11%.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

• Daily Positive Sectors: Utilities of note.
• Daily Negative Sectors: Consumer Cyclical, Real Estate, Communication Services, Technology, Healthcare, Basic materials of note.
• One Month Winners: Energy, Healthcare Financials of note.
• Three Month Winners: Consumer Cyclical, Energy, Industrials of note.
• Six Month Winners: Communication Services, Technology, Consumer Cyclical of note.
• Twelve Month Winners: Energy, Industrials, Technology of note.
• Year to Date Winners:  Communication Services, Technology, Consumer Cyclical of note.

Stocks dipped and government-bond yields reached a 15-year high after minutes from the most recent Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting showed central bankers are still worried about a possible resurgence in inflation.  The 10-year Treasury yield settled Wednesday at 4.258%, its highest close since June 2008, from 4.220% a day earlier.  The S&P 500 fell 0.8%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped about 181 points, or 0.5%. The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.1%. All three indexes are down 2.2% or more, so far in August.  (WSJ – edited by QPI)

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

• Thursday After the Close: 

• Friday Before the Open:

Earnings of Note This Morning:

• Beats: BILI +0.19, DOLE +0.17, WMT +0.13, SFL +0.09, NICE +0.08, LITE +0.04, PLCE +0.01, SPTN +0.01  of note.
• Flat: None of note.
• Misses: MSGS (0.43), BORR (0.05), TPR (0.02) of note.
• Still to Report: None of note.

Guidance:

• Positive Guidance: SNPS, STNE, CSCO, AVT, WMT of note.
• Negative Guidance: WOLF, PYCR, KE, BILI, TPR, LITE of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

• Gap Up: BILI +7%, AVT +6%, BALL +5%, CHK +4%, STNE +4%, MRCY +4% of note.
• Gap Down: KULR -43%, ASUR -13%, WOLF -13%, KE -6%, PYCR -6% of note.

Insider Action: AES, HR sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  FTHM, MDRR sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

• 5 Things to Know Before the Stock Market Opens Wednesday. (CNBC)
• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
• Bloomberg Lead Story: Global Yields March to a 15 year high as Rate Hike Worries Build. (Bloomberg)
• Bloomberg Most Shared Story: Fed Saw “Significant Inflation Risk” That May Merit More Hikes. (Bloomberg) 
• Stocks mixed as Treasury yields near 2007 peak: Market Wrap. (Bloomberg)
• China told state banks to escalate Yuan intervention. (Bloomberg)
• Walmart (WMT) beats and raises guidance. (CNBC)
• NPR Marketplace: If the Federal Reserve chills inflation without tipping the economy into a recession — known as the elusive “soft landing” — what will that look like and what happens when we get there? We dig into the ideal outcomes. We also take a bite out of three slices of our economy: retail inventories, Fed decision-making and investors’ aversion to risk. (Podcast)
• BBC Global News: Trump could face trial by next March. (Podcast) 
• NY Times The Daily: Hunter Biden’s legal problems continue to get worse. (Podcast)
• Bloomberg: Here’s how the new weight loss drugs could change everything. (Podcast)
• Wealthion: Is a Global Margin Call in the Making? (Podcast)

Moving Average Update:

• Score remains at 22%.

Geopolitical: 

• President’s Public Schedule:
  • The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing, 10:00 a.m. EDT
  • The President departs the White House at 11:25 a.m. EDT en route to Joint Base Andrews and arrives in Avoca, Pennsylvania, 12:35 p.m. EDT
  • The President privately pays respects to former Pennsylvania First Lady Ellen Casey in advance of a viewing, 12:55 p.m. EDT
  • The President departs Avoca, Pennsylvania at 2:10 p.m. EDT en route to Hagerstown, Maryland and arrives at Camp David, 3:15 p.m. EDT

Economic:

• Initial Jobless Claims 8:30 a.m. EDT
• August Philadelphia Fed Index is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to improve to -9.0 from -13.50.
• July Leading Indicators are due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and are expected to improve to -0.4% from -0.7%.
• EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 a.m. EDT

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers: None of note.

M&A Activity and News:

• Emerson (EMR) announced a definitive agreement to acquire Afag Holding AG.
• Job Mobz to Acquire Iconic Recruiter.com Brand (RCRT) in Cash and Stock Deal.
• Keystone Dental Holdings and Check-Cap Ltd (CHEK) Enter into Definitive Business Combination Agreement.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

• Sellside Conferences:
  • BWS Financial Growth and Value Summer Investor
  • Raymond James Aspen Energy Summit
  • Santander 23rd Annual Brazil Conference 2023 (08/17/23-08/23/23)
  • Truist Atlanta Bank Summit
  • HC Wainwright Immune Cell Engager Conference
    • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
      • UBS MedTech Tools and Genomics Summit (08/15/23-08/17/23)
      • Needham FinTech & Digital Transformation Conference (08/16/23-08/17/23)
      • Sidoti Micro Cap Virtual Conference (08/16/23-08/17/23)
      • Credit Suisse Brazil Financials Conference
• Top Shareholder Meetings: WRLD
• Fireside Chat: GEVO
• Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: AYRO, DFS, GNS, LVO, PRPO, UHAL, VLD
• Update: None of note.
• R&D Day: None of note.
• Company Event: None of note.
• Industry Meetings: None of note.
  • • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
      • Australasian Gaming Expo (08/15/23-08/17/23)
      • 15th Annual Bioprocessing Summit 2023 (08/14/23-08/17/23)
      • DoD Corrosion Prevention Technology Symposium 2023 (08/14/23-08/17/23)
      • SHARE Series 2023 (08/13/23-08/18/23)
      • ESS+ International Security Fair (08/16/23-08/18/23)

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: