The Daily Briefing For April 1st: Death Projections Soar, Sending Stocks Lower

by Geoff Garbacz | 04/01/2020 9:17 AM

Rebel Yell Morning Market Report

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The Daily Briefing For April 1st: Death Projections Soar, Sending Stocks Lower

Breaking News:

IPOs on deck: None of note.

IPOs Filed:  None of note.

Secondaries Priced:  of note.

Notes Priced of note: None of note.

Common Stock filings: None of note.

Mixed Shelf Offerings:  NOC of note.

Convertible Offering Files: None of note.

Senior Notes Filed: None of note.

Courtesy of IPO Financial

Earnings After The Close:

Beat: 

BB +0.05 of note.

Missed:

PUMP (0.18), VRNT (0.05) of note.

Gap Ups: 

Gap Downs: PAYS -21% (postpones earnings call), BB -15%, VRNT -12%

Hourly Action This Past Week: Updated 3/31 Close

News After The Close (In Order)

G-III Apparel (GIII) to furlough 60% of employees on 4/6.

Foot Locker (FL) to close stores in Australia.

Becton Dickinson (BDX) and BioMedomics launch rapid serology test for coronavirus.

Citi Trends (CTRN) furloughs 40% of corporate staff with all store and distribution workers.

Xerox (XRX) withdraws bid to buy Hewlett Packard (HPQ).

S&P 500 Additions: OTIS CARR.

S&P 100 Additions: AMT

S&P 600: M

Lowers Guidance: 

Withdraws Guidance: XYL SKT SYK DGX CMTL TECK

Stock Buyback Announced or Increased: TROW

Stock Buybacks Stopped: 

Dividend Increase: WSO

Dividend Cut Or Suspended: HP (cut) BCS (suspended)

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value. We will still indicate the fair value direction. 

S&P 500 -91 Dow Jones Industrial Average -775  NASDAQ -226  Russell 2000 -52.7. Fair values are higher.  Asia and Europe higher.

Gold higher with silver and copper lower. WTI Crude Oil higher and Brent Oil Futures lower. Natural Gas is higher. $ is higher vs Euro, higher vs Pound and lower vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury price is at $139,19 from $138.80 with  yields at 0.614% from 0.692%.

Positive Sectors On Tuesday: Materials and Energy of note.

Negative Sectors On Tuesday: Utilities, Financials and Consumer Goods of note.

One Month Winners: None of note.

Three Month Winners: None of note.

Six Month Winners:  None of note.

Twelve Month Winners: Technology up 0.5% all others in the red.

Year to Date: None of note.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest)

Today After The Close:   of note.

Wednesday Before The Open:   of note.

Earnings This Morning Of Note

Beat: 

UNF (+0.15) of note.

Missed:

LW (-0.15) of note.

Rags & Mags: Highlighted Stories may be clicked through to the original story.

Top News Story: White House estimates deaths could be 100,000 to 240,000 and President Trump says could be "very painful two weeks".

5 Things To Know To Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)

5 Things To Know Before Stock Market Opens On Wednesday. (CNBC)

Stocks Moving This Morning. (CNBC)

Coronavirus update: Spanish cases surge over 100,000

President Trump to relax tariffs on countries with MFN status, but will not on China or Europe. (Reuters)

U.S. will lease space in the strategic petroleum reserve for excess oil. (Reuters)

China is buying more crude oil from the U.S. (Reuters)

President Trump may limit the import of oil. (S&P Global)

White House says no Phase 4 stimulus bill, need to focus on executing Phase 3. (CNBC)

Good Morning America profiles a patient who took Gilead Sciences (GILD) Remdesivir and recovered after being on a ventilator.

Royal Caribbean (RCL) senior debt downgraded by Moody's to Baa3.

Stock Index Tracking

Current through 3/31 close. The S&P 100 fell below its 20 day moving average.

Bold means a change from prior day.

The advance/decline line model remains in cash. Updated through 3/31 close. In 2019, the model was up 16.48% on the S&P 500 and this year is down -7.64% with the S&P 500 lower by -21.34% through Friday. 5 buy signals and 4 cash signals in 2019. We moved to cash at 3116.31 on the S&P 500 and even though we just saw two days in a row above +200 we are adding a new rule that will not buy when above +200 if the next day open is down more than -1%. Instead we will wait another day to see if the 10 DMA remains above +200.

Algo/HFT Trading Levels:

The Erlanger Value Lines track the intraday range of resistance, pivot and support used by Algo/HFT Traders. Each day we show where we closed within the range. Update through 3/31 close. EVL Ranges remain above normal and are highlighted in blue.

Courtesy of Phil Erlanger Research, Inc.

Economic & Related:

MBA Mortgage Applications rose by 15.3%  week over week thanks to refinancings but new applications fell by -24%.

March ADP Employment Report is due out at 8:15 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall to -175,000 from 183,000. Only fell -27,000.

March Chicago PMI is due out at 9:45 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall to 40 from 49.

February Construction Spending is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall to 0.5% from 1.8%.

March ISM Manufacturing Index is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall to 50.1 from 43.3.

Weekly Crude Oil Weekly Inventories are due out at 10:30 a.m. EDT.

Geopolitical:      

President Trump will receive his intelligence briefing at 12:00 p.m. EDT, then speak with military families on coronavirus  response at 2:30 p.m. EDT.

The Coronavirus Task Force to meet at 5:00 p.m. EDT for their daily press conference.

Meetings, Calls & Conferences

Investor/Analyst Days & Conference Calls of Note:  MRNA (Conference Call) APM (Update) OKTA TECK ANDE (Investor Day)

Sellside Conferences: None of note.

Industry Conferences: None of note.

M&A Activity

Xerox (XRX) withdraws bid to buy Hewlett Packard (HPQ).

Village Super Market (VLGEA) to buy certain assets of Fairway Group.

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