The Daily Briefing For April 10th: Stock Fading Into This Morning's Open

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Thursday higher by 0.36% at 4105.02 from Wednesday lower by -0.25% at 4090.38. The overnight high of 4143 was hit at 6:20 p.m. EDT. The low was hit at 4126.75 at 3:05 a.m. EDT, a range of 17 points high to low which is below the recent range of 45. At 7:25 a.m. EDT the current price was 4131.75 which is -0.01% and-0.25 points.

Earnings Out After The Close: 

• Beats: WDFC +0.06 of note.
• Flat: None of note.
• Misses: None of note.

Masters Roundup: Jon Rahm came from behind to beat Brooks Koepka to win the storied event. (ESPN)

Unusual Options Activity:

Daily Screen in Erlanger Chartroom that highlights unusual Call and Put Options activity in the S&P 500.  It looks for volume outliers relative to the Open interest in Calls or puts.  Usually, the stock price activity reflects the outlier situation (earnings/buyout/announcement), but once in a while, you can uncover stocks prior to a pop or drop.

Capital Raises:

• IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
• New SPACs launched/News:
  • Arrival Advances U.S. Commercialization (ARVL) Plans Through Business Combination with Kensington Capital Acquisition Corp. V (KCGI).
  • Colombier Acquisition Corp. (CLBR) Announces Filing of a Registration Statement on Form S-4 in Connection with its Combination with PublicSq.
  • dMY Technology Group, Inc. VI (DMYS) Announces Termination of Tender Offer.
  • DUET Acquisition Corp. (DUET) terminates merger agreement with AnyTech365.
  • Games & Esports Experience Acquisition Corp. (GEEX) Announces it Will Redeem its Public Shares and Will Not Consummate an Initial Business Combination.
• Secondaries Priced: None of note.
• Notes Priced of note: None of note.
• Common Stock filings/Notes:
  • BXRX: Filed Form S-1.. Offering.
  • CKPT: Filed Form S-3.. 3,502,000 Shares of Common Stock underlying certain Series A Warrants, Series B Warrants and Placement Agent Warrants.
  • CMND: Closes US$3.5 Million Public Offering.
  • KPLT: Filed Form S-3.. Up to 4,000,000 Shares of Common Stock Issuable Upon Exercise of the Warrant.
  • LFCR: Filed Form S-1.. Up to 12,667,486 Shares of Common Stock.
  • OPGN: Filed Form S-1.. Offering.
  • PSLV: Provides update to its “At-the-Market” equity program.
  • UPH: Filed Form S-1.. 9,000,000 Shares of Common Stock.
• Direct Offering:
  • ANPC: Announces Closing of $3.0 Million Registered Direct Offering.
• Selling Shareholders of note: None of note.
• Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
• Mixed Shelf Offerings:
  • ANTX: Filed Form S-3.. $300,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
  • AUR: Filed Form S-3.. $350 Million Mixed Shelf.
  • DBVT: Filed Form S-3.. $250 Million Mixed Shelf.
  • EFSC: Filed Form S-3ASR .. Mixed Shelf.
  • ETON: Filed Form S-1.. $100,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
  • HLGN: Filed Form S-3.. $150 Million Mixed Shelf.
  • KLXE: Filed Form S-3.. $250,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
  • KRYS: Filed Form S-3ASR Mixed Shelf Offering.
  • SYRS: Filed Form S-3.. $250,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
  • TBLT: Filed Form S-1.. Mixed Shelf Offering.
  • TRKA: Filed Form S-3..$150,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
• Debt/Credit Filing and Notes: None of note.
• Tender Offer:
  • CEMI: Stockholders Reminded to Tender Shares Before 6:00 P.M., New York City Time, on April 12, 2023.
• Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close and Over the Week:

• Weekly Wrap Up: Best and Worst performing large cap stocks:
  • Trading Up: NVAX 40.3%, TELL 39.1%, CHRS 27.8%, TAST 25.5%, TECK 25.4%, KPTI 24.9%, APLS 23.8%, MBI 23.7%, DOMO 21.9%.
  • Trading Down: BBBY -62.0%, SMTC -32.4%, ASND -30.6%, KZR -24.8%, MPAA -19.3%, STIM -18.9%, SENS -18.5%, SFIX -18.3%.

• News Items After the Close:
  • March Jobs Report Showed Hiring Gradually Cooling. (WSJ)
  • Apple (AAPL) Buying Disney (DIS) Would Create an Unparalleled Entertainment Behemoth — (Newsweek article)
  • In what could be the largest oil deal in years, Exxon (XOM) has held talks with Pioneer Natural Resources over a possible acquisition of the $49 billion company. (WSJ)
  • FOMC Target Rate probabilities for a 25bps hike in May meeting now at 70% — Previous to report we were at 55%.
  • Consumer Confidence in Housing Market Remains Near Historic Lows —  Elevated Mortgage Rates Continue to Weigh on Existing Homeowners’ Sense of Homebuying Conditions — Fannie Mae.
• News Items Over the Weekend:
  • Stocks that Defined the Week:  XOM, JNJ, GOOG, MCD, WWE, WAL, CAG  (WSJ)
  • The Week in Business: Cuts to Oil Production (NYT)
  • McDonald’s (MCD) restructuring spreads, hundreds of jobs slashed. (MarketWatch)
  • Declines in Loan Values Are Widespread Among Banks. (WSJ)
  •  Barron’s:
    • Positive View: MS, JKHY, MTB, ONB, PB, TFC of note.
    • Cautious View: None of note.
    • Mixed View: None of note.
• Erlanger Type 1 Short Squeezes and Type 4 Long Squeezes reporting earnings this week:

• Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
  • Affimed (AFMD) Announces Receipt of NASDAQ Deficiency Notice Regarding Minimum Bid Price Requirement.
  • Cano Health’s (CANO) former directors call for CEO change, asset sales. (Bloomberg)
  • Cerence (CRNC) Chief Technology Officer Prateek Kathpal has notified Cerence of his decision to resign.
  • CUTR: J. Daniel Plants and David Mowry Call for Special Stockholder Meeting to Reconstitute Cutera’s Board.
  • EBIX CFO Steven M. Hamil resigned.
  • KNOT Offshore Partners LP (KNOP) Announces CEO/CFO Stepping Down.
  • Liquid Media Group Ltd. (YVR) Receives Additional Deficiency Notice from Nasdaq.
  • MariaDB (MRDB) Names Conor McCarthy as Chief Financial Officer.
  • Minim (MINM) announces CEO transition.
  • Nurix Therapeutics (NRIX) COO Stefani A. Wolff to resign from her position.
  • ProPhase (PRPH) promoted Robert A. Morse to CFO.
  • P.A.M. Transport (PTSI) appointed Lance K. Stewart to serve as the Company’s Vice President of Finance, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer.
  • PowerFleet (PWFL) Chief Revenue Officer Patrick Maley resigned.
  • System1 (SST) Receives Notice of Late Filing from the NYSE.
  • VAALCO Energy (EGY) Receives Expected NYSE Notice Regarding Late Form 10-K Filing.
• Buyback Announcements or News:
  • CNH Industrial (CNHI): Periodic Report on a third $50 million tranche of $300 million Buyback Program.
• Stock Splits or News:
  • Bed Bath (BBBY) seeking holder approval for reverse stock split.
  • Blackboxstocks (BLBX) Sets Reverse Stock Split Ratio at 1-for-4.
  • Calyxt (CLXT) Announces Effective Date of Reverse Stock Split.
  • OUST to execute 1-for-10 reverse stock split.
• Dividends Announcements or News: 
  • Ault Alliance (AULT) Announces Special Dividend with a Record Date of April 20, 2023.
  • First Republic Bank (FRC) is suspending dividend payment on preferred stock. (MarketWatch)
  • H.B. Fuller (FUL) increases quarterly dividend 8% to $0.205 per share from $0.19 per share.
  • Safe Bulkers, Inc. (SB) Declares Quarterly Dividend on its 8.00% Series C Cumulative Redeemable Perpetual Preferred Shares; 8.00% Series D Cumulative Redeemable Perpetual Preferred Shares.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 -8, Dow Jones -6,  NASDAQ -60, and Russell 2000 +1. (as of 7:57 a.m. EDT).  Asia is higher ex ASX 200 with Europe higher. VIX Futures are at 21.86 from 20.80 yesterday.  Gold lower with Silver higher and Copper lower. WTI Crude Oil and Brent and Natural Gas higher. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 3.368% from 3.285%  yesterday. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, flat versus the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $28,314 from $27,935 yesterday, higher by 0.54%.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

• Daily Positive Sectors: Communication Services, Utilities, Real Estate, Healthcare of note.
• Daily Negative Sectors: Energy of note.
• One Month Winners: Communication Services, Healthcare, Technology, , Utilities of note.
• Three Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical of note.
• Six Month Winners: Technology, Basic Materials, Communication Services, Industrial of note.
• Twelve Month Winners: Energy of note.
• Year to Date Winners: Communication Services, Technology, Consumer Cyclical of note.

U.S. stocks ended the holiday-shortened week in subdued fashion Thursday, recovering from early losses after new jobless-claims data suggested that layoffs have recently increased more than previously thought.  The S&P 500 climbed 14.64 points, or 0.4%, to 4105.02 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average inched up 2.57 points, or less than 0.1%, to 33485.29. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 91.09 points, or 0.8%, to 12087.96. The stock market will be closed Friday, when the March jobs report will be released, while the bond market will be open for an abbreviated session. Stocks showed little momentum in either direction this week after notching sizable gains last week. Investors remain optimistic that recent strains in the banking sector won’t lead to a full-blown crisis and are also cheered by signs that the Federal Reserve may be nearly done raising interest rates. But they remain on edge about the economic outlook, with recent data providing some cause for concern. (MarketWatch – edited by QPI)

Click here for a video explanation of Erlanger Value Lines.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

• Monday After the Close: 

• Tuesday Before the Open:

Earnings of Note This Morning:

• Beats: GBX (+0.02) of note.
• Flat: None of note.
• Misses: None of note.
• Still to Report: None of note.

Guidance:

• Positive Guidance: LW, IMOS of note.
• Negative Guidance: WDFC, TSM, AUDC of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

• Gap Up: GLOP +4% of note.
• Gap Down: AUDC -13%, TUP -10% of note.

Insider Action: No stock sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  AFBI, BRT sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

• Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: MU, PXD, TSLA, FRC, COF, SQ (CNBC)
• 5 things to know before the stock market opens. (CNBC)
• 5 Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg) 
• Bloomberg Lead Story: The Big Take: Bond Market is Overplaying the Risk of a Deep Recession. (Bloomberg)
• Bloomberg Most Read Story: A $1.5 trillion Wall of Debt is Looming For US Commercial Properties. (Bloomberg)
• US Navy challenges Beijing in South China Sea amid Taiwan drills. (Bloomberg)
• Dualing rulings left in question the abortion pill and may be headed to the Supreme Court. (1440)
• Apple (AAPL) sees a 40% plunge in PC shipments is steepest among American computer makers. (Bloomberg)
• Uber (UBER) launches a spinoff of Careem with $400 million investment from UAE tech holding company, e&. (CNBC)
• First Republic (FRC) delays results and cuts dividend on Preferred Stock, had already cut the common stock dividend. (MarketWatch)
• Tupperware (TUP) issues a going concern warning. (MarketWatch)

Moving Average Update:

• Score goes to 65% from 68%.

Geopolitical: 

• President’s Public Schedule:
  • The President and The First Lady host the 2023 White House Easter Egg Roll; The Vice President and The Second Gentleman attend, 10:15 a.m. EDT
  • The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing; The Vice President attends, 1:45 p.m. EDT
  • Press Briefing by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, 2:00 p.m. EDT

Economic:

• Wholesale Inventories 10:00 a.m. EDT

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:

• Federal Reserve New York President John Williams 4:15 p.m. EDT

M&A Activity:

• Bunge (BG) to Acquire Louisiana State-of-the-Art Refinery from Fuji Oil Enhancing its Position in the Vegetable Oils Market.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

• Sellside Conferences: None of note.
  •  Previously posted and ongoing conferences: None of note.

• Company Meetings: GT, IXAQ, VERB
• Fireside Chat: None of note.
• Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: TSM, UMC
• Update: None of note.
• R&D Day: None of note.
• Company Event: None of note.
• Industry Meetings:
  • MRS (Materials Research Society) Spring Meeting & Exhibit 2023 (04/10/23-04/14/23)
  • SHARE Series Conference (NYSE Event)
  • IEEE Grid Edge Technologies Conference 2023 (04/10/23-04/13/23)
  • 18th Annual Drug Discovery Chemistry Meeting 2023 (04/10/23-04/13/23)
  • Gatlinburg Conference (04/10/23-04/13/23)
  • Spring Meetings of the World Bank Group
    • Previously posted and ongoing conferences: None of note.

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: