Stocks Lower To Start The Week, Geopolitical And Inflation To Dominate The Week

by Geoff Garbacz | 02/21/2023 9:06 AM

Rebel Yell Morning Market Report

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Stocks Lower To Start The Week, Geopolitical And Inflation To Dominate The Week

Overnight SummaryThe S&P 500 closed Friday lower by -0.28% at 4079.09 from Thursday lower by 1.38% at 4090.41.  The overnight high of 4077.50 was hit at 6:05 p.m. EST. The low was hit at 4047.75 at 4:10 a.m. EST, a range of ~30 points high to low.  At 7:15 a.m. EST, the S&P 500 (mini) was lower by -32.75 points which is -0.80%.

Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats: MTW +0.48, CPRT +0.03, PLOW 0.03, WMB +0.03 of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: ADTN (0.04), NDSN (0.02) of note.

Unusual Options Activity:

Daily Screen in Erlanger Chartroom that highlights unusual Call and Put Options activity.  It looks for volume outliers relative to the Open interest in Calls or puts.  Usually, the stock price activity reflects the outlier situation (earnings/buyout/announcement), but once in a while, you can uncover stocks prior to a pop or drop.


Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News:
    • Athena Consumer Acquisition Corp. (ACAQ) announces second extension of deadline to complete initial business combination, for an additional month, to March 22, 2023.
    • TradeUP Acquisition Corp. (UPTD) Announces Extension of the Deadline for an Initial Business Combination.
  • Secondaries Priced:
    • VRCA: Offering priced at $6.74 per share, $32.5 Million Underwritten Offering of Common Stock and Pre-Funded Warrants.
  • Notes Priced of note:
    • TT: Trane Technologies Prices $700 Million Senior Notes Offering.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • MDNA: Filed Form F-3.. US$100,000,000 atm sales facility.
  • Direct Offering:
    • RNAZ: Closing of $1.5 Million Registered Direct Offering of Common Stock Priced At-The-Market under Nasdaq Rules.
    • CGC: Announces Us$150 Million Registered Direct Offering.
  • Selling Shareholders of note: None of note.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE):
    • OWLT: $30 Million Private Placement Financing.
    • MIR: Announces $150 Million Investment from T. Rowe Price, Priced At-the-Market.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • BWA: Filed Form S-3ASR.. Mixed Shelf.
    • CBOE: Filed Form S-3ASR – Mixed Shelf Offering.
    • CUZ: Filed Form S-3ASR – Mixed Shelf Offering.
    • PBI: Filed Form S-3ASR – Mixed Shelf Offering.
  • Debt Filing/Notes: None of note.
  • Tender Offer:
    • AMCX: Commences Tender Offers for Senior Notes due 2024 and 2025.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close and Over the Week:

  • Weekly Wrap Up: Best and Worst performing large cap stocks:
    • Trading Up: CYH 49.1%, PEGA 32.2%, NGL 32.2%, RBBN 31.5%, TTD 29.5%, ROKU 28.5%, TWLO 25.6%, BHC 25.3%, TDC 23.3%, HLF 22.6%, TAL 20.6%, IPGP 19.7%, SGEN 18.8%, SFIX 16.6%, OSUR 16.5%, TUR 16.0%, NTRA 15.8%, FMX 15.1%, CAR 15.1%.
    • Trading Down: GLYC -47.8%, GTHX -46.3%, CRBP -33.3%, CLVS -28.3%, ATNX -24.0%, BBBY -23.4%, TELL -21.0%, SPPI -20.3%, SABR -15.5%, DNB -14.3%, DVN -12.3%, KB -12.2%, MRC -11.7%, HL -11.2%, SWI -11.0%, KRNT -10.7%, RNG -10.2%.
  • News Items After the Close:
    • Norfolk Southern (NSC) furthers environmental efforts in East Palestine.
    • Abbott (ABT) gets FTC notice for information on infant formula products. (Reuters)
    • Tesla (TSLA) Is Considering a Bid for Battery Metals Miner. (Bloomberg)
    • 65% of SPX companies have beaten revenue estimates to date for Q4, which is below the 5-year average of 69% but above the 10-year average of 63%.(FactSet)
    • Growth Stocks Are Trumping Value Once Again. (WSJ)
    • Lockheed Martin (LMT) Awarded $1.1 Billion Initial Contract to Provide Nation’s First Sea-Based Hypersonic Strike Capability.
  • News Items Over the Weekend:
    • Stocks that Defined the Week:  ABNB, NSC, TSLA, KO, TSM, ROKU, CSCO (WSJ)
    • The Week in Business: A Chatbot Yearns for Existence (NYT)
    • President Biden visits Ukraine to mark one-year anniversary of Russian invasion. (MarketWatch)
    • Amazon (AMZN) Corporate Workers Face Pay Reduction After Shares Slip. (WSJ)
    • Inside Peloton’s (PTON) rapid rise and bitter fall — and its attempt at a comeback. (CNBC)
    • Investors Worry Too-Hot Economy Will Put Fed on More Aggressive Rate Path. (WSJ)
    • Will Elon Musk’s $25,000 Tesla (TSLA) save the electric car industry?  Tesla is poised to unveil a cheaper ‘Model 2’ as other manufacturers struggle to turn a profit from the electric vehicle revolution. (The Times UK)
    • META is rolling out a paid verification tier called Meta Verified starting at $11.99 per month.
    • Barron’s:
      • Positive View: WMT, AAPL, SYK of note.
      • Cautious View: None of note.
      • Mixed View: None of note.
  • Erlanger Type 1 Short Squeezes and Type 4 Long Squeezes reporting earnings this week:

  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • BBIG Staff notified the company that it did not comply with Nasdaq’s filing requirements set forth in Listing Rule.
    • China Liberal Education Holdings (CLEU) Limited Receives Nasdaq Notification Regarding Minimum Bid Price Deficiency.
    • G Medical Innovations Holdings Ltd (GMVD) Announces Nasdaq Staff Listing Determination; Plans to Request Hearing.
    • Helix (HLX) Announces $200 Million Share Repurchase Program.
    • LEJU: Announces CFO Change.
    • LumiraDx (LMDX) Regains Compliance with Nasdaq Continued Listing Requirements.
    • PTC extends executive agreement with CEO; names new President/COO.
    • SKLZ: Financial Executive Kevin Chessen Joins Skillz Board of Directors.
    • Southland (SLND) to transfer its common stock to the NYSE American exchange from the NASDAQ at market open on March 2, 2023.
    • Suncor Energy (SU) announces Rich Kruger as next President and CEO.
    • Tactile Systems Technology, Inc. (TCMD) Announces Chief Financial Officer to Retire in 2023.
    • Teck Resources (TECK) announces reorganization of its business to separate Teck into two independent companies: Tech Metals Corp and Elk Valley Resources Ltd. (see Buybacks and Dividends)
  • Buyback Announcements or News:
    • ASML reports transactions under its current share buyback program.
    • Helix (HLX) Announces $200 Million Share Repurchase Program.
    • Huntsman (HUN) (see Dividends).
    • STMicroelectronics (STM) Announces Status of Common Share Repurchase Program.
    • TECK announces $250M share repurchase plan. (see Dividends)
    • Williams Co (WMB) dividend has been increased by 5.3% on an annualized basis to $1.79 in 2023 from $1.70 in 2022.
  • Stock Splits or News:  None of note.
  • Dividends Announcements or News:
    • AMERISAFE (AMSF) Increases Dividend By 9.7%.
    • Bluegreen Vacations Holdings (BVH) announced that the Company’s Board of Directors has declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.20 per share.
    • Harley-Davidson (HOG) increases quarterly dividend to $0.165 per share from $0.1575 per share.
    • The Home Depot (HD) Increases Quarterly Dividend by 10 Percent.
    • Huntsman (HUN) Approximately $1.2 Billion in Buybacks and Dividends in 2022; Board Approves 12% Dividend Increase.
    • Mueller Industries (MLI) increases quarterly cash dividend $0.05 to $0.30 per share.
    • SNA Goes ex div tomorrow for $1.62
    • TECK announced that its Board of Directors has declared an eligible dividend of $0.625 on its outstanding Class A common shares and Class B subordinate voting shares, consisting of a base dividend of $0.125 per share and a supplemental dividend of $0.50 per share.
    • Walmart (WMT) raises annual dividend to $2.28 per share, marking 50th consecutive year of dividend increases.

What’s Happening This MorningFutures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 -30, Dow Jones -281,  NASDAQ -125, and Russell 2000 -15. (as of 7:56 a.m. EST).  Asia lower ex the Kospi and Europe are lower. VIX Futures are at 22.25 from 21.70  yesterday.  Gold lower, Silver higher  and Copper higher.  WTI Crude Oil higher and Brent lower with Natural Gas lower. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 3.89% from 3.886% yesterday. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, lower versus the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $24,536 from $23,812 Friday, lower by  -1.06%.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Utilities, Consumer Defensive, Healthcare of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Energy, Technology, Basic Materials of note.
  • One Month Winners:  Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Industrials Communication Services of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Consumer Cyclical, Technology, Basic Materials Communication Services of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Basic Materials, Energy, Financial of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy, Utilities, Industrial of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Consumer Cyclical, Technology, Communication Services of note.

U.S. stocks closed mostly lower on Friday, with the S&P 500 and Dow both ending a choppy week with losses, as concerns reared back up about how quickly the Federal Reserve might need to hikes rates to cool stubbornly high inflation. The Dow Jones Industrial Averagerose about 130 points on Friday, or 0.4%, ending near 33,826, while posting a 0.1% weekly drop, according to preliminary data from FactSet. The S&P 500 index shed 0.3% Friday and lost 0.3% for the week, posting back-to-back weekly declines. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.6% Friday, but a 0.6% weekly gain. The backdrop for stocks has gotten cloudier in recent sessions as surging wholesale prices signaled that inflation could continue to be slow to retreat in the U.S.  (MarketWatch – edited by QPI)

Click here for a video explanation of Erlanger Value Lines.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Tuesday After the Close: 

  • Wednesday Before the Open:

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: DDS +5.66, NPO +0.45, TPH +0.43, TAP +0.23, JELD +0.22, WMT +0.20, MIDD +0.13, AVNS +0.11, IR +0.10, JBT +0.09, ESPR +0.09, LPX +0.07, ELAN +0.06, LECO +0.04, MDT +0.03, DRH +0.02, PEG +0.02, HRMY +0.01, SPNS +0.01, HD +0.01 of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: ARNC (2.98), WLK (0.51), DAN (0.36), LGIH (0.23), WD (0.23), TECK (0.20), BCRX (0.18), HUN (0.10), DFIN (0.10), FLR (0.08), AWI (0.04), TRN (0.03), ETRN (0.01) of note.
  • Still to Report: EXPD of note.


  • Positive Guidance: MTW, IR, NPO, APG, MDT, ASRT of note.
  • Negative Guidance: HSTM, NDSN, HD, AWI, ELAN, JBT, ARNC, TRN, WMT of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: ATNM +21%, APLS +14%, TVTX +10%, ESPR +9%, MNOV +7%, SNN +6%, TECK +5%, LGND +5%, HLX +4%, HSBC +4% of note.
  • Gap Down: SLND -6%, SBSW -4% of note.

Insider ActionLNC, FIS sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  No stock sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Stocks Making the Biggest Pre-Market Moves: WMT, HD, VIR, GIS, AN, HSBC, MDT, GNRC. (CNBC)
  • 5 things to know before the stock market opens Tuesday. (CNBC)
  • 5 Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: Putin Halts Nuke Pact With The U.S., Vows To Push War in Ukraine in Long Speech Today. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Read Story:  You Want $3 Million in Savings To Live Comfortably. (Bloomberg)
  • U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken had a confrontational meeting with the Chinese over recent events. (NYT)
  • Stocks Futures fall on interest rate concerns. (WSJ)
  • Morgan Stanley Says S&P 500 Could Drop 26% in Months. (Bloomberg)
  • Home Depot (HD) to provide $1 billion in wage increases, announced with earnings beat and revenue miss. (CNBC)
  • Walmart (WMT) beats on earnings and revenues. (CNBC)
  • General Mills (GIS) raises guidance on upbeat outlook. (CNBC)
  • Major winter storm to impact U.S. from the west coast through the midwest. (CNN)
  • Supreme Court to hear two cases this weel that could impact the future of the internet, related to Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act. (CNN)

Moving Average Update:

  • Slip to 42% from 62% and 100% on Wednesday.


  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President participated in a bilateral meeting with President Andrzej Duda of Poland to discuss our bilateral cooperation as well as our collective efforts to support Ukraine and bolster NATO’s deterrence, 7:30 a.m. EST
    • The President delivers remarks ahead of the one year anniversary of Russia’s brutal and unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, 11:30 a.m. EST


  • PMI Composite Flash  9:45 a.m. EST
  • January Existing Home Sales are due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and expected to rise to 4.12 million from 4.02 million.

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers: None of note.

M&A Activity:

  • RADCOM (RDCM) acquires Continual for $2.5 million.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Citi Global Industrials Conference (02/21/23-02/23/23)
    • Citigroup Oncology Leadership Summit (02/21/23-02/23/23)
    • Truist Securities Texas Bank Summit
    • Wells Fargo Targeted Protein Degradation (TPD) Virtual Summit 2023
    • Microcap Rodeo 3rd Annual Winter Wonderland Best Ideas Virtual Investor Conference 2023 (02/21/23-02/24/23)
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences: None of note.

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

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