Stocks Lower As Russia Bombs Ukraine and President Biden Releases The White House Budget

by Geoff Garbacz | 03/09/2023 8:29 AM

Rebel Yell Morning Market Report

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Stocks Lower As Russia Bombs Ukraine and President Biden Releases The White House Budget

Overnight SummaryThe S&P 500 closed Wednesday higher by 0.14% at 3992.01. Tuesday was lower by -1.53% at 3986.37. The overnight high of 3998.25 was hit at 5:00 p.m. EST. The low was hit at 3978.75 at 5:25 a.m. EST, a range of ~20 points high to low.  At 7:15 a.m. EST, the S&P 500 (mini) was lower by -11 points which is -0.28%.

Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats: MDB +0.50, ASAN +0.12, SOVO +0.03 of note.
  • Flat: NDLS, ONL of note.
  • Misses: EOLS (0.09), ESTE (0.07) of note.

Unusual Options Activity:

Daily Screen in Erlanger Chartroom that highlights unusual Call and Put Options activity.  It looks for volume outliers relative to the Open interest in Calls or puts.  Usually, the stock price activity reflects the outlier situation (earnings/buyout/announcement), but once in a while, you can uncover stocks prior to a pop or drop.


Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News:
    • Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (AESI)  rices 18.0 million share IPO at $18.00 per share, below the $20-23 expected range.
  • New SPACs launched/News:
    • Aurora Technology Acquisition Corp. (ATAK) Announces Additional Contribution to Trust Account to Extend Deadline to Consummate Business Combination.
    • Integrated Wellness Acquisition Corp (WEL) Announces Extension of Deadline to Complete Business Combination.
  • Secondaries Priced:
    • AER: Prices secondary offering of 23.0 million shares at $58.50 per share.
    • CWAN: Pricing of Secondary Offering of Class A Common Stock .. Priced @$15.
    • FTAI: Prices Its Public Offering of Preferred Shares.
    • OGS: Pricing of a Public Offering of 2,000,000 Shares of Common Stock.
  • Notes Priced of note:
    • MODN: Model N Prices Offering of $220.0 Million of 1.875% Convertible Senior Notes Due 2028.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • OGS: Announces public offering of 2 million shares of common stock.
    • STGW: Launch of Secondary Offering of Class A Common Stock.. 16,000,000 shares. (MS and GS Bookmanagers)
  • Direct Offering:
    • EZGO: $14.4 Million Registered Direct Offering.
    • NRXP: Announces Close of $2.9 Million Registered Direct Offering.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • BIP: Files for 125,700,792 non-voting limited partnership units by selling unit holder.
    • CWAN: Files for 177,461,342 share common stock offering by selling shareholders. (JPM Underwriter)
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • BWV: Filed Form S-3.. $100 Million Mixed Shelf
    • EOLS: Filed Form S-3.. $250,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
    • SONX: Files for $100 million mixed securities shelf offering.
  • Debt Filing/Notes:
    • HBI: Completes refinancing of 2024 maturities; closes $900 million Term Loan B financing.
  • Tender Offer: None of note.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed:
    • SIVB: Proposed Offerings of Common Stock and Mandatory Convertible Preferred Stock.. $1.25 billion of its common stock and $500 million of depository shares.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: ASAN +28%, MGNX +10%, SOVO +5%, HDSN +5% of note.
    • Trading Down: SI -37%, SIVB -14%, MDB -10%, STGW -9%, CWAN -5% of note.
  • News After The Close:   
    • Stocks making the biggest moves after hours:  SI, MDB, UBER, FOSL, LDI (CNBC)
    • Silvergate Capital Corporation (SI) Announces Intent to Wind Down Operations and Voluntarily Liquidate Silvergate Bank. (Report) (MarketWatch)
    • Biden’s Budget Will Eliminate Tax Subsidies For Oil And Gas – Documents Seen By Reuters.
    • Peloton (PTON), iFit is hit with US import ban over streaming technology. (Reuters)
    • Apple (AAPL) to Revamp Overseas Sales Units to Focus More on India. (Bloomberg)
    • UBER Is Considering Spinning Off its Freight Logistics Division. (Bloomberg)
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Apogee Enterprises (APOG) names Matt Osberg as CFO.
    • Caesarstone (CSTE) names Yosef (Yos) Shiran as new Chief Executive Officer.
    • European Wax Center (EWCZ) appoints Stacie Shirley to Chief Financial Officer.
    • Helen of Troy (HELE) Announces Resignation of CFO. (MarketWatch)
    • Herc Holdings (HRI) CFO to resign.
    • Moody’s (MCO) announces that Vincent Forlenza will be appointed Chairman of its Board of Directors.
    • Neoleukin Therapeutics (NLTX) Provides Strategic Update and Announces Restructuring and Leadership Transition.
    • Perimeter Solutions (PRM) appointed Haitham Khouri to serve as the Chief Executive Officer of the Company effective immediately.
    • Silgan Holdings (SLGN) elects Kimberly Ulmer as CFO.
    • Titan Medical (TMDI) Announces Decision of Nasdaq Hearings Panel to Delist Common Shares.
    • Wix (WIX) Announces Changes to Board of Directors to Support New Phase of Value Creation.
  • Buyback Announcements or News:
    • American Express (AXP) approved the repurchase of up to 120 million common shares, in accordance with the company’s capital plans that are, from time to time, reviewed and not objected to by the Federal Reserve. This authorization replaces the approximately 36 million common shares of common stock remaining from the previous Board authorization in 2019. (see Dividends)
  • Stock Splits or News:
    • New York Mortgage Trust (NYMT) Completes One-for-four Reverse Stock Split.
  • Dividends Announcements or News: 
    • American Express (AXP) Announces 15 Percent Dividend Increase. (MarketWatch)
    • Build-A-Bear Workshop, Inc. (BBW) Declares Special Cash Dividend of $1.50 per share.
    • Dime Community (DCOM) increases quarterly cash dividend $0.01 to $0.25 per share.
    • GeoPark (GPRK) increases quarterly cash dividend to $0.13 per share from $0.127 per share.
    • Kadant (KAI) increases quarterly cash dividend $0.03 to $0.29 per share.
    • Travel + Leisure Co (TNL) increases quarterly cash dividend 12% to $0.45 per share, a $0.05 raise.

What’s Happening This MorningFutures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 -9, Dow Jones -8,  NASDAQ -54, and Russell 2000 -5. (as of 7:55 a.m. EST).  Asia higher ex Kospi (South Korea) and Europe lower. VIX Futures are at 19.40 from 19.96  yesterday.  Gold higher with Silver and Copper lower. WTI Crude Oil and Brent higher with Natural Gas higher as well. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 3.997% from 3.92% yesterday. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower versus the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $21,614 from $22,010 yesterday, lower by  -2.02%.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Real Estate, Technology, Utilities, Basic Materials of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Energy, Healthcare of note.
  • One Month Winners: Industrials, Energy of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Basic Materials,Technology, Industrials of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Basic Materials, Industrial, Financial of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy, Industrial of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Communication Services of note.

U.S. stocks wobbled between small gains and losses Wednesday as investors parsed a second day of congressional testimony from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and further data suggesting the labor market remains hot (ADP Employment Report).  The S&P 500 climbed 5.64 points, or 0.14%, to 3992.01, while the Nasdaq Composite increased 45.67 points, or 0.4%, to 11576.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 58.06 points, or 0.2%, to 32798.40.  Chairman Powell said the central bank would keep its options open about future rate increases and that coming economic data would strongly influence the rate decision at the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) March 21-22 meeting.  (WSJ – edited by QPI)

Click here for a video explanation of Erlanger Value Lines.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Thursday After the Close: 

  • Friday Before the Open:

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: JD +1.32, PSFE +0.55, BJ +0.11, DCBO +0.08, GCO +0.06, FCEL +0.02 of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: BTAI (0.54), HLLY (0.08) of note.
  • Still to Report:  TTC of note.


  • Positive Guidance: ASAN, SOVO, NAPA, BJ, PSFE of note.
  • Negative Guidance: NDLS, GCO, HLLY of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: ASAN +21%, BBW +11%, SOVO +9%, NAPA +6%, VET +6%, MGNX +5%, HDSN +5%, BJ +5%, MIRM +5%, SONX +4% of note.
  • Gap Down: SI -46%, SIVB -29%, MDB -11%, SBNY -9%, CWAN -7%, CS -6%, HELE -6%, STGW -5%, KRO -5%, VSEC -4% of note.

Insider Action: No stock sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  No stock sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Stocks Making the Biggest Pre-Market Moves: ETSY SI UBER MDB SIVB CS LDI HLT (CNBC)
  • 5 Things to Know Before Stock Market Opens Wednesday. (CNBC)
  • 5 Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: Biden to Urge 25% Levy on Billionaires, Levies on Rich Investors. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Read Story: The lead story above. (Bloomberg)
  • Russia launches its broadest barrage of missiles into Ukraine hitting multiple cities and areas. (NYT)
  • President Biden wants a 5.2% raise for government workers but less than 8.7% which was proposed in House and Senate legislation. (The Washington Post)
  • Pentagon Budget will seek big increases for weapons buying and R&D. (Bloomberg)
  • Credit Suisse (CS) to delay its Annual Report (1oK) after “late call” from the SEC. (CNBC)
  • U.S. to control exports on semis to China and EU nation set to follow the U.S. (CNBC)
  • JP Morgan (JPM) sues Jes Staley for $80 million over ties to Jeffrey Epstein. (Bloomberg)
  • Bank of America (BAC) to redeploy bankers to other areas of the bank as deal drought continues. (Bloomberg)
  • BJ Wholesales (BJ) topped estimates and is higher this morning. (MarketWatch)

Moving Average Update:

  • Score remains at 45%.


  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President receives the President’s Daily Briefing, 9:00 a.m. EST
    • The President departs the White House en route to Joint Base Andrews and Philadelphia Airport, 11:50 a.m. EST
    • The President releases his Budget for Fiscal Year 2024 and delivers remarks on his plans to invest in America, continue to lower costs for families, protect and strengthen Social Security and Medicare, reduce the deficit, and more, 2:30 p.m. EST
    • The President departs Northeast Philadelphia Airport and White house, 4:00 p.m. EST
  • Norfolk Southern (NSC) CEO to testify before Congress over the Ohio Derailment. (WSJ)


  • Challenger Job Cut 7:30 a.m. EST
    • Challanger Job Cuts (FEB) Actual: 77.770K VS 102.943K previous
  • Jobless Claims 8:30 a.m. EST
  • EIA natural Gas Report 10:30 a.m. EST

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers: 

  • Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr 10:00 a.m. EST

M&A Activity: None of note.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • UBS European Media and Internet Conference
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

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