Stocks Are Volatile As Investors Try To Make Sense of Bank Failures And Runs

by Geoff Garbacz | 03/13/2023 8:33 AM

Rebel Yell Morning Market Report

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Stocks Are Volatile As Investors Try To Make Sense of Bank Failures And Runs

Overnight SummaryThe S&P 500 closed Friday lower by -0.92% at 3882.13 from Thursday lower by -1.85% at 3918.32. The overnight high of 3971.50 was hit at 3:00 a.m. EDT. The low was hit at 3883.50 at 5:40 a.m. EDT, a range of ~89 points high to low.  At 7:15 a.m. EDT, the S&P 500 (mini) was higher by +59 points which is 1.54%.

Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats: None of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.

Unusual Options Activity:

Daily Screen in Erlanger Chartroom that highlights unusual Call and Put Options activity in the S&P 500.  It looks for volume outliers relative to the Open interest in Calls or puts.  Usually, the stock price activity reflects the outlier situation (earnings/buyout/announcement), but once in a while, you can uncover stocks prior to a pop or drop.


Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News: None of note.
  • Secondaries Priced: None of note.
  • Notes Priced of note: None of note.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • AULT: Ault Alliance Announces Termination of At-the-Market Equity Offering Program.
    • CING: Filed Form S-1.. 8,620,689 Shares of Common Stock.
    • CKPT: Filed Form S-3.. 2,942,858 Shares of Common Stock underlying certain Series A Warrants, Series B Warrants and Placement Agent Warrants.
    • DCFC: Form RW.
    • INBS: Closing of $2.55 Million Public Offering and Full Exercise of the Underwriters’ Option to Purchase Additional Shares and Warrants.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note: None of note.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE):
    • Chicken Soup for the Soul Entertainment (CSSE) entered into a purchase agreement with Lincoln Park Capital Fund.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • BNGO: Filed Form S-3.. $400,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
    • DAC: Filed Form F-3.. $500,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
    • HBT: Filed Form S-3.. $100,000,000 Mixed Shelf AND 3 Million shares common stock.
    • OLN: Filed Form S-3ASR — Mixed Shelf.
    • USB: Filed Form S-3ASR .. Mixed Shelf Offering.
    • WNC: Filed Form S-3ASR .. Mixed Shelf Offering.
    • XXII: Filed Form S-3.. $250 million Mixed Shelf.
  • Debt Filing/Notes:
    • XOM: Filed Form S-3ASR — Debt Securities.
  • Tender Offer: None of note.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close and Over the Week:

  • Weekly Wrap Up: Best and Worst performing large cap stocks:
    • Trading Up: AZUL 75.8%, ARLO 53.6%, GOL 36.9%, SQQQ 12.1%, DAKT 11.6%, DKS 11.1%, DLTH 8.6%, CORT 7.8%, SSYS 7.3%, OPK 6.5%, CDNA 6.4%, ABEO 6.3%, BBD 5.7%, TPIC 5.6%, GE 5.4%, ERJ 5.3%, ANET 4.3%, BSAC 3.9%, RUBY -68.3%, SIVB -62.7%, PACW -51.1%, STIM -41.2%, CARA -41.0%.
    • Trading Down: SBNY -38.4%, ACRS -38.1%, ADAP -37.2%, NINE -36.2%, UNFI -35.1%, FRC -34.1%, ATNX -34.0%, CURO -29.2%, ESPR -29.0%, CVNA -27.4%, CVGW -26.1%, CUBI -26.0%, LX -25.8%.
  • News Items After the Close:
    • President Biden Administration Set to Further Tighten Chipmaking Exports to China. (Bloomberg)
    • Boeing (BA) stock rises as FAA clears company to resume Dreamliner deliveries. (MarketWatch)
    • META Cuts Could Reach 13% of Workforce, Extend Over Multiple Rounds This Year, Sources Say. (WSJ)
    • GM explores using ChatGPT in vehicles. (Reuters)
    • Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB):
      • What’s Going on With Silicon Valley Bank? (WSJ)
      • 20 banks that are sitting on huge potential securities losses—as was SVB. (MarketWatch)
      • SIVB Nasdaq: SVB Will Stay Halted Until Request for Additional Info Met.
      • First Republic (FRC) Hit by Silicon Valley Bank Failure. (WSJ)
      • CEO of Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB) was on the board of directors of the San Francisco Fed — As of Friday he is no longer on the board.
  • News Items Over the Weekend:
    • Stocks that Defined the Week:  SIVB, JBLU, NSC, WW, CPB, GM, GPS (WSJ)
    • The Week in Business:  (NYT)
    • U.S. Expected to Approve Big Oil-Drilling Project in Alaska.
    • Signature Bank (SBNY) Seized by FDIC As Pain Spreads From SVB. (Bloomberg)
    • Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB):
      • Elon Musk says he’s open to the idea of buying Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB). (Twitter)
      • The Bank of London considering making offer for SVB UK. (Sky News)
      • Bank of England set to place Silicon Valley Bank UK into insolvency. (WSJ)
      • Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers Warns Consequences ‘Severe’ If SVB Deposits Not Released
      • Crypto firm Circle reveals $3.3 bln exposure to Silicon Valley Bank. (Reuters)
      • Bill Ackman says there will be bank runs everywhere on Monday unless the FDIC does a system-wide guarantee.
      • Silicon Valley Bank paid out annual bonuses to eligible U.S. employees, just hours before the bank was seized by the U.S. government. (CNBC)
      • Silicon Valley Bank will reopen on Monday for insured depositors under the newly formed Deposit Insurance National Bank of Santa Clara, per FT.
      • HUBS FRSH TEAM ZM TWLO These 5 software stocks could be more affected by SVB drama – Barclays
    •  Barron’s:
      • Positive View: JPM, BAC, WFC, FITB, HBAN, KEY, MTB, PNC, USB, RF, OKTA, DELL of note.
      • Cautious View: None of note.
      • Mixed View: None of note.
  • Erlanger Type 1 Short Squeezes and Type 4 Long Squeezes reporting earnings this week:

  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM) CFO to retire.
    • Alamos (AGI) announced that Greg Fisher, Senior Vice President of Finance has been promoted to Chief Financial.
    • Ball Corp (BALL) elects Daniel Fisher, the company’s president and CEO, as chairman of the board.
    • Insulet (PODD) will replace SVB Financial (SIVB) in the S&P 500 effective prior to the opening of trading on Wednesday, March 15. (MarketWatch)
    • Dunxin Financial Holdings (DXF) Announces Notification of NYSE American Continued Listing Deficiency.
    • Horizon Bancorp, Inc. (HBNC) Discloses Receipt of NASDAQ Notice and delays 10-K filing.
    • LL Flooring Holdings (LL) names Terry Blanchard as Interim CFO.
    • Medalist Diversified REIT, Inc. (MDRR) Announces Establishment of a Special Committee of the Board and Exploration of Strategic Alternatives.
    • SciSparc Ltd. (SPRC) Announces Receipt of Nasdaq Minimum Bid Price Notification.
    • Thorne HealthTech (THRN) appoints Saloni Varma as CFO.
  • Buyback Announcements or News:
    • Applied Materials (AMAT) Announces New $10 Billion Share Repurchase Authorization. (see Dividends)
    • Novartis (NVS) launches CHF10B stock buyback program.
  • Stock Splits or News: None of note.
  • Dividends Announcements or News:
    • Applied Materials (AMAT) Increases Cash Dividend by 23.1 Percent to $0.32 per share, a $0.06 increase.
    • EMN Goes ex div tomorrow for $0.79.
    • PFG Goes ex div tomorrow for $0.64.
    • PKG Goes ex div tomorrow for $1.25.
    • Tecnoglass (TGLS) increases quarterly dividend by 20% to $0.09 per share.

What’s Happening This MorningFutures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 +0.16, Dow Jones -88,  NASDAQ +94, and Russell 2000 -11. (as of 7:57 a.m. EDT).  Asia lower ex the Kospi (South Koread) up 0.67% and Europe lower as well. VIX Futures are at 24.55 from 21.80 Friday.  Gold and Silver higher with Copper lower. WTI Crude Oil and Brent lower with Natural Gas higher. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 3.56% from 3.855% Friday. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower versus the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $22,1768 from $19,750 Friday, higher by  4.58%.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: None of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Real Estate, Financial, Industrials, Technology, Basic Materials, Utilities of note.
  • One Month Winners: Industrials, Energy of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Basic Materials,Technology, Communication Services, Industrials of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Basic Materials, Industrial, Energy, Financial of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy, Industrial of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Communication Services of note.

Stocks tumbled as investors ran for safe havens on Friday, unnerved by concerns about the health of the U.S. financial system and a still-strong jobs report.  The selloff deepened after the FDIC shut down Silicon Valley Bank, marking the largest bank failure in the U.S. since 2008. Silicon Valley Bank collapsed after a run on deposits doomed the tech-focused lender’s plans to raise fresh capital.  .  Bond yields tumbled.  The S&P 500 closed down 56.73 points, or 1.4%, at 3861.59, while the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 345.22 points, or 1.1%, to 31909.64. The Nasdaq Composite lost 199.47 points, or 1.8%, to close at 11138.89. Investor sentiment has broadly soured in recent days, with the S&P 500 finishing down nearly 5% on the week.   (WSJ – edited by QPI)

Click here for a video explanation of Erlanger Value Lines.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Monday After the Close: 

  • Tuesday Before the Open:

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: None of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.
  • Still to Report: GTLB of note.


  • Positive Guidance: None of note.
  • Negative Guidance: EGIO of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: PRVB +260%, SGEN +18%, PRTA +12%, LIFW +11%, XM +7%, PODD +6%, ACAD +5%, VMEO +5%, AVXL +5%, SOFI +5%, HLTH +4%, OB +4% of note.
  • Gap Down: FRC -62%, PACW -39%, OVID -13%, RAPT -6%, SBNY -6%, HTGC -5%, SVRA -5%, EWBC -5%, IDYA -5%, CLBK -4%, DBVT -4% of note.

Insider ActionAAT, ALHC, DLTR, PEB, ENVX, SWX sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  No stock sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • 5 Things to Know Before Stock Market Opens. (CNBC)
  • 5 Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: Investors Rush For Havens As SVB Meltdown Stokes Fears. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Read Story: Fed’s New Backstop Shields Banks From $300 Billion of Losses. (Bloomberg)
  • U.S. Government steps in and says depositors with funds at SVB will be able to access their money on Monday. (CNBC)
  • First Republic (FRC) Drops 70% , Leads Decline in Bank Stocks Despite Government’s Backstop of SVB. (CNBC)
  • Hedge Fund Manager Bill Ackman says more banks will fail despite Fed intervention. (Bloomberg)
  • 2 Year Yields tumble as investors seek safety. (CNBC)
  • Goldman Sachs says no rate hikes in March now. (CNBC)
  • Credit Suisse (CS) default swaps hit record as SVB failure hits banks. (Bloomberg)

Moving Average Update:

  • Score …ZERO…..flat lined.


  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President departs the White House en route to Joint Base Andrews, 9:50 a.m. EDT
    • The President departs Joint Base Andrews en route to San Diego, California, 10:10 a.m. EDT
    • The President arrives in San Diego, California (12:40 PM Local), 3:40 p.m. EDT
    • The President participates in a trilateral meeting with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese of Australia and Prime Minister Rishi Sunak of the United Kingdom (1:30 PM Local), 4:30 p.m. EDT
    • The President delivers remarks on the Australia – United Kingdom – United States Partnership (2:00 PM Local), 5:00 p.m. EDT
    • The President participates in a bilateral meeting with Prime Minister Rishi Sunak of the United Kingdom (2:45 PM Local), 5:45 p.m. EDT
    • The President participates in a bilateral meeting with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese of Australia (4:00 PM Local), 7:00 p.m. EDT
    • The President departs San Diego, California en route to Del Mar, California (5:35 PM Local), 8:35 p.m. EDT
    • The President arrives in Del Mar, California (5:50 PM Local), 8:50 p.m. EDT
    • The President participates in reception for the Democratic National Committee (6:45 PM Local), 9:45 p.m. EDT
    • The President departs Del Mar, California en route to San Diego, California (7:30 PM Local), 10:30 p.m. EDT
    • The President arrives in San Diego, California (7:05 PM Local), 11:05 p.m. EDT

Economic: None of note.

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:

  • Fed announces Closed Board Meeting on March 13, 2023 (Release)
  • Future Meetings:  March: 21st-22nd.  May: 2nd-3rd,  June: 13th-14th , July: 25th-26th, September: 19th-20th, Oct/Nov: 31st-1st, December: 12th-13th.

M&A Activity:

  • HSBC acquires Silicon Valley Bank’s UK arm for £1.
  • Ritchie Bros. (RBA) Co-founder and former President & COO speak out against merger with IAA (IAA).
  • XM Acquired by Silver Lake and CPP Investments for $12.5B or $18.15 per share.
  • PRVB to be acquired by Sanofi (SNY) for $25.00 per share.
  • Pfizer (PFE) to buy Seagen (SGEN) for $229 a share a 32.70% premium to Friday’s close. (CNBC)

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Bank Of America Business Service, Leisure and Transport C-Suite Conference 2023 (03/13/23-03/14/23)
    • Barclays Global Healthcare Conference
    • Berenberg Thematic Software Conference (03/12/23-03/14/23)
    • Chardan Grid Innovation Summit
    • Guggenheim Health Altitudes Summit (03/12/23-03/16/23)
    • Jefferies Value-Based Healthcare Summit
    • JP Morgan Industrials Conference
    • Loop Capital Investor Conference (03/13/23-03/14/23)
    • Mizuho Securities USA LLC Energy (03/13/23-03/14/23)
    • Mizuho Inaugural Oncology Therapeutics Summit (03/13/23-03/14/23)
    • Oppenheimer Healthcare Conference (03/13/23-03/15/23)
    • ROTH Capital Partners Investment Growth Stock 35th Annual Conference 2023 (03/12/23-03/14/23)
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:  None of note.

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

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