All Eyes On CPI. Expect Volatility In Either Direction Depending On The Release.

by Geoff Garbacz | 01/12/2023 9:10 AM

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All Eyes On CPI. Expect Volatility In Either Direction Depending On The Release.

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Wednesday higher by 1.28% at 3969.61 from Tuesday higher by 0.70% at 3919.25.  The overnight high of 3995.75 was hit at 12:55 a.m. EST. The low was hit at 3985 at 3:20 a.m. EST, a range of ~10 points high to low.  At 7:15 a.m. EST, the S&P 500 (mini) was +2.50.

Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats: None of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: KBH (0.38).

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News: None of note.
  • Secondaries Priced: None of note.
  • Notes Priced of note: None of note.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • BILI: Announces Completion of Equity Offering.
    • CJJD: Filed Form F-3.. 12,128,704 Ordinary Shares.
    • LPTH: Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock. (Alliance bookmanager)
    • NUTX: Filed Form S-3ASR.. ‎57,471,264  Shares of Common Stock.
    • OPGN: Closing of $7.5 Million Public Offering.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • CMTG: Filed mixed securities shelf offering and prospectus relating to the possible resale of up to 16,058,983 shares by selling stockholders.
    • GMDA: Filed Form S-3.. Up to 14,868,724 Ordinary Shares offered by Selling Shareholder.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE):
    • DBGI: Announces $5.0 Million Private Placement Priced At-The-Market under Nasdaq Rules.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • MICS: Filed Form S-3.. $50 Million Mixed Shelf.
  • Debt Filing/Notes: None of note.
  • Tender Offer: None of note.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: BW +3%.
    • Trading Down: None of note.
  • News Since The Close:         
    • Apple (AAPL) Could Launch Its First Touch-screen Mac In 2025 As Part Of A Larger Update To The Macbook Pro. (Bloomberg)
    • Nelson Peltz Plans Proxy Fight Against Disney (DIS). (WSJ)
    • Month over Month (MOM) Assets Under Management: BEN (-1.7%), VCTR $153.0 billion, IVZ $1.409 billion (-2%), APAM $127.9 billion, AB $646 billion (-1.8%), VRTS $149.4 billion (-5%), LAZ $216 billion.
    • Biden’s legal team found another batch of classified government documents. (CNN)
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • AMD CFO Devinder Kumar To Retire, Jean Hu To Become CFO On January 23.
    • Biophytis (BPTS) To Take Appropriate Measures After Receiving Nasdaq Deficiency Notice.
    • Broadstone Net Lease (BNL) announces senior executive succussion plan in which current Executive Vice President and COO will become CEO.
    • DIS: Mark Parker to Be Named Chairman of the Walt Disney Company. (MarketWatch)
    • Enfusion (ENFN) appoints Michael Spellacy as Board Chair, effective immediately.
    • Ero Copper (ERO) Executive Chairman Noel Dunn to retire from his executive position
    • Kandi Technologies (KNDI) Announces CEO Transition.
    • Lifecore Biomedical (LFCR) Receives Notice from Nasdaq Regarding Delayed Quarterly Report.
    • Marvell (MRVL) Announces CFO Transition.
    • Medalist Diversified REIT, Inc. (MDRR) Announces 180-Day Extension to Regain Compliance with Nasdaq Minimum Bid Price Requirement.
    • New York City REIT (NYC) Announces Completion of Reverse Stock Split and Termination of REIT Status.
    • Sachem Capital (SACH) Chief Investment Officer William C Haydon retires.
    • Statera Biopharma (STAB) has been delisted from Nasdaq.
    • The Very Good Food Company (VGFC) Announces Receipt Of Notice Of Default, Update On Reef Capital Transaction, Receipt Of Non-compliance And Decision Letters From Nasdaq And Board Resignations.
    • Yunji (YJ) receives non-compliance notice from Nasdaq.
  • Buyback Announcements or News:
    • Simulations Plus (SLP) Executes $20 Million Accelerated Share Repurchase Agreement.
    • Super Group (SGHC) Board of Directors Approves $25 Million Share Repurchase Program.
  • Stock Splits or News: None of note.
  • Dividends Announcements or News: 
    • Apogee Enterprises (APOG) announces that its Board of Directors has declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.24 per share, a 9% increase.
    • AQN to suspend dividend reinvestment plan.
    • Stellus Capital (SCM) announces $0.40 first quarter 2023 regular dividend, up $0.06.
    • UMH Properties (UMH) increases common stock dividend 2.5% to $0.205 per share.

What’s Happening This MorningFutures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 +7, Dow Jones +70,  NASDAQ +14,  and Russell 2000 +5. (as of 7:54 a.m. EST).  Asian markets are higher.  Europe markets are trading higher. VIX Futures are at 22.30 from 22.15 yesterday.  Gold and Silver higher with Copper lower.  WTI Crude Oil and Brent are higher with Natural Gas higher. $ barely down. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 3.528% from 3.576%  yesterday. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower versus the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $18,193 from $17,414 yesterday, higher by 3.77%.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Real Estate, Consumer Cyclical, Communication Services, Technology of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: None of note.
  • One Month Winners:  Financial, Basic Materials, Industrials of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Basic Materials, Industrials, and Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Industrials, Energy, and Basic Materials of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy and Utilities of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Basic Materials, Consumer Cyclical, and Financial of note.

U.S. stocks booked a second straight day of gains on Wednesday a day before investors expect a fresh reading on consumer inflation to show another monthly decline from the summer peak. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose about 268 points, or 0.8%, ending near 33,972, while the S&P 500 index booked a 1.3% gain, with both clinching a second day in a row of gains, according to FactSet. Still, the standout has been the rate-sensitive Nasdaq Composite Index with a 1.8% increase on Wednesday that marked its fourth straight daily gain, and its longest win streak in four months, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The rally in equities comes as Treasury rates again edged lower on Wednesday, with the benchmark 10-year yield near 3.554% at 3 p.m. Eastern. It hit a peak yield in October of 4.231%.   (MarketWatch)

Click here for a video explanation of Erlanger Value Lines.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Thursday After the Close: WAFD, MITK of note.
  • Friday Before the Open: UNH, JPM, BAC, WFC, BLK, C, FRC, DAL of note.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: TSM +0.29.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.
  • Still to Report: None of note.

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: HIMX, AAL of note.
  • Negative Guidance: CLPT, ICPT, ISRG, TSM, LOGI, AQN of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart: 

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: FREY +5%, KNDI +5% of note.
  • Gap Down: ORMP -68%, LOGI -16%, PGEN -5% of note.

Insider Action: No stock sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  No stock sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Stocks making the biggest moves premarket:  AAL BBBY DIS BUD NFLX ROKU CLF KBH SPOT CNK. (CNBC)
  • 5 things to know before the stock market opens. (CNBC)
  • 5 Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: Stocks Climb, US Futures Becalmed Before CPI Data.  (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Read StoryUniversal plans a new family resort in Texas and Las Vegas with a horror theme. (Bloomberg)
  • Traders lose trust in CPI Data in wake of volume shock. (Bloomberg)
  • Stock setup heading into CPI data. (CNBC)
  • UK and EU to talk and try to end Brexit clash. (Bloomberg)
  • American Airlines (AAL) hikes revenue estimates after strong Q4. (CNBC)
  • Bitcoin above $18,000 this morning as $5 billion recovered by FTX lawyers. (CNBC)
  • Freeport LNG (LNG) may extend restart to February, making it 7 months outage. (Reuters)

Moving Average Update:

  • Score increases to 88% from 77%….and the beat goes on.  Hello CPI!

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing, 8:30 a.m. EST
    • The President delivers remarks on the economy and our efforts to tackle inflation, 10:00 a.m. EST
    • The President departs the White House en route the Washington National Cathedral, 10:40 a.m. EST
    • The President attends a memorial service for former Secretary of Defense Ash Carter and delivers remarks, 11:00 a.m. EST
    • The President arrives at the White House, 12:50 p.m. EST
    • Press Briefing by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, 1:30 p.m. EST

Economic: 

  • December CPI is due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and is expected to come in at 0.0% from 0.1% in November.
  • Initial Jobless Claims 8:30 a.m. EST
  • EIA natural Gas Report 10:30 a.m. EST
  • The December Treasury Budget is due out at 2:00 p.m. EST and came in last month at $-248.5 billion.

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:

Federal Reserve Philadelphia President Patrick Harker 7:30 a.m. EST
Federal Reserve St. Louis President James Bullard 11:30 a.m. EST
Federal Reserve Richmond President Thomas Barkin 12:40 p.m. EST

M&A Activity: None of note.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Evercore 9th Annual Utility CEO Conference 2023 (01/12/23-01/13/23)
    • Raymond James Lumber and Homebuilding Forum
    • National Bank of Canada Energy Conference
  • Company Meetings: IDRA, ISR, VYNE, MU.
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: AQN, CALM, GXO, INTCJAGX,  STNG.
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event: None of note.
  • Industry Meetings:
    • 26th North American Neuromodulation Society (NANS) Annual Meeting 2023 (01/12/23-01/15/23)
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

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