Ahead For The Week Davos, Funding The U.S. Government and Biden's Documents To Weigh On Markets

by Geoff Garbacz | 01/17/2023 8:02 AM

Rebel Yell Morning Market Report

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Ahead For The Week Davos, Funding The U.S. Government and Biden's Documents To Weigh On Markets

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Friday higher by 0.40% at 3999.09 from Thursday higher by 0.34% at 3983.17.  The overnight high of 4017.50 was hit at 7:15 p.m. EST. The low was hit at 4000.50 at 2:05 a.m. EST, a range of ~17 points high to low.  At 7:10 a.m. EST, the S&P 500 (mini) was lower by -8.00.

Breaking News: Chinese Vice Premier Liu tells Davos that the world must abandon “Cold War mentality”. (CNBC)

Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats: None of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.

Unusual Options Activity:

Daily Screen in Erlanger Chartroom that highlights unusual Call and Put Options activity.  It looks for volume outliers relative to the Open interest in Calls or puts.  Usually, the stock price activity reflects the outlier situation (earnings/buyout/announcement), but once in a while, you can uncover stocks prior to a pop or drop.

    

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News: None of note.
  • Secondaries Priced: None of note.
  • Notes Priced of note: None of note.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • CMMB: Filed Form S-1 .. Offering of ADSs.
    • GMBL: Filed Form S-1.. File to sell common stock.
    • HOTH: Filed Form S-3.. 4,600,000 Shares of Common Stock.
    • IQ: Announces Proposed Offering of American Depositary Shares.
    • NLSP: Filed Form S-3.. Up to 11,494,253 Common Shares.
    • PALI: Filed Form S-1.. 1,654,578 shares of Common Stock.
    • RIBT: Filed Form S-1.. Up to 2,000,000 Shares of Common Stock Issuable Upon Exercise of Outstanding Warrants.
    • SIDU: Form S-1.. Up to 8,130,081 shares of Class A Common Stock Pre-Funded Warrants to Purchase up to 8,130,081 shares of Class A Common Stock.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • STR: Filed Form S-3ASR.. 1,144,718 Shares Class A Common Stock Issuable Upon Exercise of Private Placement Warrants 73,734,001 Shares Class A Common Stock Offered by Selling Securityholders.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE):
    • DBGI: Annouces Closing of $5.0 Million Private Placement Priced At-The-Market under Nasdaq Rules.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • ARBE: Filed Form F-3.. $100Million Mixed Shelf.
    • HDSN: Filed Form S-3.. $75,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
    • OGEN: Filed Form S-3.. $40,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
  • Debt Filing/Notes: None of note.
  • Tender Offer: None of note.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close and Over the Week:

  • Weekly Wrap Up: Best and Worst performing large cap stocks:
    • Trading Up: MDGL 304%, PRQR 291%, AKBA 151%, GLYC 135%, CTMX 120%, LX 119%, RIGL 113%, TOUR 112%, BZUN 108%, MAXR 94%, MLCO 86%, TAL 84%, CBAY 83%, GDS 82%, AUPH 78%.
    • Trading Down: AVYA -84%, TECH -77%, FATE -76%, PRTY -64%, KNOP -56%, NVAX -50%, FTCH -46%, CLVS -46%, GH -43%, BKD -42%, RAD -42%, MRTX -41%, TCDA -41%, NKTR -41%, CGC -39%, TSLA -39%, KPTI -38%, CVNA -37%, EDIT -35%.
  • News Items After the Close:
    • Judge denies Elon Musk’s bid to move Tesla (TSLA) tweet trial to Texas. (NY Post)
    • Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp. (MSGE) Confidentially Files Amended Form 10 Registration Statement for Proposed Spin-off of Live Entertainment Business. (MarketWatch)
  • News Items Over the Weekend:
    • Stocks that Defined the Week: JPM, LULU, DIS, ACI, COIN, WBD, AAL  (WSJ)
    • The Week in Business: More Air Travel Chaos (NYT)
    • Classified Documents continue to appear in random places tied to President Biden. (CNN)
    • Davos 2023: Global recession in 2023 seen as likely in WEF survey. (Reuters)
    • Economists Estimate 61% Probability Of Recession In Coming Year–WSJ Survey 75% Of Economists Say FED Won’t Achieve ‘soft Landing’ In 2023 economists Expect CPI Inflation To Fall To 3.1% At End Of 2023 From 6.5% In December 51% Of Economists Expect FED To Cut Rates This Year.  (WSJ)
    • Wharton’s Jeremy Siegel says the U.S. has ‘really solved the inflation problem’ (CNBC)
    • Activist Investor Ryan Cohen Takes Stake in Alibaba (BABA) and Pushes for More Stock Buybacks. (WSJ)
    • Apple (AAPL) Rumored to Have Product Announcement Tuesday. (MacRumors)
    •  Barron’s:
      • Positive View: FSV, RBC, ABCM, YOU, DUOL, GSK, TIMB, VIV, DAVA, XLU, MLM of note.
      • Cautious View: None of note.
      • Mixed View: None of note.
  • Erlanger Type 1 Short Squeezes and Type 4 Long Squeezes reporting earnings this week:

  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • BIO-key (BKYI) Receives Nasdaq Notification Regarding $1.00 Minimum Closing Bid Price Requirement and Has Period of 180 Days to Regain Compliance.
    • Brooge Energy Ltd (BROG) Announces Receipt of Anticipated Nasdaq Delinquency Notice for which the Company Intends to Include in its Nasdaq Prior Granted Extension.
    • Blockchain Technologies (HIVE) appoints Aydin Kilic as President & CEO.
    • DMC Global (BOOM) CEO steps down.
    • Limbach (LMB) Announces Leadership Transition, Michael McCann as CEO.
    • Snow Lake Lithium (LITM) Announces Director Resignations.
    • Lilium GmbH (LILM) appoints Oliver Vogelgesang as CFO
    • Monster Beverage (MNST) Announces Auditor Change.
    • Teri Bariquit to Retire as Nordstrom (JWN) Chief Merchandising Officer.
    • Schmitt Industries (SMIT) has been delisted from Nasdaq.
    • Sierra Metals (SMTS) Announces Appointment of Interim CFO.
    • Swvl (SWVL) Receives Nasdaq Non-Compliance Notice.
    • VIVE will seek strategic alternatives and will be delisted from Nasdaq.
  • Buyback Announcements or News:
    • Forza X1 (FRZA) Announces Stock Repurchase Program.
    • Twin Vee PowerCats Co. (VEEE) Announces Stock Repurchase Program.
  • Stock Splits or News: None of note.
  • Dividends Announcements or News:
    • Mercantile Bank (MBWM) increases quarterly cash dividend to $0.33 per share, up $0.01.

What’s Happening This MorningFutures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 -12, Dow Jones -121,  NASDAQ -55,  and Russell 2000 -5. (as of 7:57 a.m. EST).  Asian markets are lower ex Japan  Europe markets are trading lower. VIX Futures are at 21.06 from 21.35 yesterday.  Gold, Silver and Copper lower.  WTI Crude Oil and Brent are higher with Natural Gas higher. $ barely down. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 3.548% from 3.478% yesterday. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower versus the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $21,242 from $18,892 Friday, lower by -0.21%.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Consumer Cyclical, Communication Services, Healthcare, Basic Materials of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Utilities, Real Estate of note.
  • One Month Winners:  Financial, Basic Materials, Energy Industrials of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Basic Materials, Industrials, and Financial Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Industrials, Energy, and Basic Materials of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy and Utilities of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Basic Materials, Consumer Cyclical, and Communication Services Financial of note.

Stocks rose Friday to cap off a winning week as investors weighed a batch of quarterly earnings results from big banks that shed light on how U.S. companies are holding up in a slowing economy.  The three major stock indexes opened lower but steadily gained through the trading session. The S&P 500 rose 15.92 points, or 0.4%, to 3999.09. The Nasdaq Composite was up 78.05 points, or 0.7%, at 11079.16. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 112.64 points, or 0.3%, at 34302.61. All three benchmarks finished the week with gains of at least 2%. (WSJ)

Click here for a video explanation of Erlanger Value Lines.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Tuesday After the Close:

 

  • Wednesday Before the Open:

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: EDU +0.01.
  • Flat: CFG of note.
  • Misses: GS (2.45), SBNY (0.22), SI (0.21), MS (0.05).
  • Still to Report: None of note.

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: EDU, ADMA, BOOM of note.
  • Negative Guidance: MHK of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart: 

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: IPHA +10%, ARBE +6%, ARQT +5%, SBNY +4% of note.
  • Gap Down: IQ -8%, FSM -4% of note.

Insider ActionKYMR, FATE sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.   sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: GS PFE MS VOD GPN CAKE BLMN ROKU SNAP REYN WHR (CNBC)
  • 5 things to know before the stock market opens. (CNBC)
  • 5 Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: Investors Most Underweight on US Stocks since 2005, B of A Poll Shows. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Read Story: Chief Executives, Economists Brace for Recession as Davos Begins. (Bloomberg)
  • China’s population sinks for the first time since the 1960s. (Bloomberg)
  • China reports GDP Growth of 3% for Q4. (CNBC)
  • US-China Trade is close to a record. (Bloomberg)
  • China faces a bumpy recovery as the economy emerges from Covid Zero. (Bloomberg)
  • U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen to meet with Chinese Vice Premier Liu on Wednesday. (Bloomberg)
  • House GOP preparing a contingency plan in the case debt ceiling is breached later this year. (The Washington Post)
  • Idea of “de-globalization” is a mirage says Historian Niall Ferguson. (CNBC)
  • SAP CEO says the world entering the next phase of globalization. (CNBC)
  • Goldman Sachs (GS) misses profit estimates on investment banking and asset management revenue. (CNBC)
  • Morgan Stanley (MS) misses estimates but beats on revenues. (CNBC)

Moving Average Update:

  • Score inches up to 91% from 88%.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing, 9:00 a.m. EST
    • The President holds a bilateral meeting with Prime Minister Mark Rutte of the Netherlands, 11:15 a.m. EST
    • The President has lunch with The Vice President, 12:45 p.m. EST
    • Press Briefing by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, 1:45 p.m. EST
    • The President welcomes the Golden State Warriors to the White House to celebrate their 2022 NBA championship; The President and The Vice President deliver remarks, The Second Gentleman attends, 2:45 p.m. EST

Economic: 

  • Empire State Manufacturing Index  8:30 a.m. EST

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:

  • Federal Reserve New York President John Williams 3:00 p.m. EST

M&A Activity:

  • Diageo plc (DEO) to acquire Don Papa Rum.
  • Emerson (EMR) Announces Premium, All-cash Proposal To Acquire National Instruments (NATI) For $53 Per Share

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Capital Link’s Corporate Presentation
    • Cowen 3rd Annual Genetic Medicines Summit 2023
    • Peters & Co. Winter Energy Conference (01/17/23-01/20/23)
    • Santander Latin American Conference (01/17/23-01/19/23)
    • Virtual Investor Companies to Watch Event
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • None of note.
  • Company Meetings: None of note.
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: MNST, NEWTSRAX
  • Update:
    • PAVmed (PAVM) and Lucid Diagnostics (LUCD) Strategic Business Update Conference Call.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event:
  • Industry Meetings:

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

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