The S&P 500 lost -3.29% in today's action. So are we at the beginning of the selling or at the end? The only way to understand where we are is to look at the numbers.
Since September 20th (my birthday), the S&P 500 has decided to correct. The downward move is now -4.95%. In later 2012, we decided to track up and down moves. Since the fourth quarter of 2012 there have been 33 pullbacks.
The average down move is -4.77% and take 20 calendar days to run its course. Since this correction began on September 20th, today was day 20. This year there have been six corrections.The worst was -10.16% and the smallest pullback was -2.91%. Right now we are at the average for 2018.
More interesting is that each September/October since 2013 we have seen decent pullbacks. They are as follows -3.88%, -7.40%, -5.69%. -4.79% and a paltry -2.23% in 2017.
In 2018, there have been 17 pullbacks of -1% or greater. The last one was in June and it fell -1.37%.
The conclusion is that we are very normal in our corrective action so far. What happens after the correction in the fourth quarter typically? Come back later tonight and we will tell you.