President Trump swore on national media yesterday the Covid-19 pandemic is ending and the United States is “turning the corner.” Coincidentally or not, the United States suffered yesterday its worst one day jump in coronavirus infections. The United States and much of Europe are amidst a new spike in the potentially deadly disease that could send infections over 100,000 a day before Election Day.
Not a single article in the mainstream media, even among the far fringes of U.S. political online websites, print news, or TV are connecting the sudden ramping up of Covid-19 infections and how it might impact voter turnout on Election Day.
There are many online and video stories about how President Trump and his campaign expects their voters to turn out in mass on November 3 to save his presidency. However, there is not a single story or Trump press release that considers what happened if, by November 3, the numbers of those infected daily jumps to 100,000+, and the number of deaths soars back towards or over 2,000 a day.
The fact that the number of infections and deaths are growing dramatically should come to anyone’s surprise.
Dr. Anthony Fauci has been one of only a small number of administration medical experts not intimidated by President Donald Trump. Fauci has stepped forward before the cameras repeatedly to warn and predict that the daily infection rate in the United States alone could reach unprecedented levels of infections and fatalities.
The Democratic Party Has a 72% Chance at Winning a Trifecta
Now that it appears Dr. Fauci’s warnings may be on target, the question has to be asked, “ How will this affect voter turnout on Election Day?” Especially when we consider that both the Biden and Trump campaigns agree, most voters who cast their ballots on Election Day will be Republicans who President Trump convinced that mail-in voting is too unreliable and fraught with fraud.
National polls like RealClearPolitics.com and FiveThirtySix.com show Biden leading between 7 and 10 points on average nationally and between 4 and 7 points on average in crucial battleground states. Suppose the sudden rise of Covid-19 infections and deaths climbs sharply from the current levels to new all time highs. In that case, these healthy average poll margins enjoyed by the Democrats could be widened by an additional 3-5 points because of the lack of Republican voter and the record-breaking turnout of Democrat and Independent voters early vote and mail in turnout.
The net effect of a Covid-19 shock could decimate both President Trump’s re-election effort and deliver as many as 13 Republican and open Senate seats to the Democrats. That’s right, a supermajority of 60 Democrats in the Senate even before adding two more seats in the Senate by making Washington D.C. a state.
The Democrat-controlled House could also benefit from a lower than expected turnout of Republican voters because of a spike in Covid-19 the last few days and on Election Day. Democrats could add a net of 15 seats in this scenario.
Last night’s last presidential debate of 2020 appear to have not helped President Trump and his down-ballot dependent allies. An after debate panel of undecided voters who watched the debate together with masks and proper social distancing unanimously confirmed for CNN Gary Tuchman last night that President Donald Trump did not win the final presidential debate of 2020.
“Who thinks Donald Trump won this debate?” CNN’s Gary Tuchman asked the panel of North Carolina voters following the debate.
“I don’t see any hands. That’s a zero,” the reporter added, following an awkward moment of silence.
Then Tuchman asked, “who thinks former Vice President Biden won the debate.” Nine of the undecided voters raised their hands.
When asked “who thought the debate was a draw,” two of the undecided voters raised their hands.
CNN's entire undecided voter panel agrees Trump didn't win debate