The Debt Ceiling Negotiations May Not Save the Day

As we predicted Speaker Kevin McCarthy is facing a possible revolt as far-right House members start making threats that if he takes seriously would end his speakership and could stall the debt ceiling negotiation underway.

Despite the statements by President Biden, House Speaker McCarty, and his negotiators. We believe President Biden will have to invoke an executive order based on the 14 Amendment section 4 dealing with public debt, which reads…

“The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law, including debts incurred for payment of pensions and bounties for services in suppressing insurrection or rebellion, shall not be questioned.”

In addition, President Biden will cite his sworn oath of office in this last-minute executive order …

"I do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic; that I will bear true faith and allegiance to the same; that I take this obligation freely, without any mental reservation or purpose of evasion; and that I will well and faithfully discharge the duties of the office on which I am about to enter: So, help me, God."

The far-right freedom caucus will not vote to pass the negotiated agreement if one is reached. They will also threaten with more than a dozen voting members to head off the vote by calling McCarthy’s speakership in question. That will come by itself and guarantee our first financial default history in U.s> history unless President Biden steps in with an executive order in a month in history that former President Trump is arrested on charges relating to his conspiracy to withhold presidential documents and obstruction of justice with a superseding indictment filed by late August.

According to MSNBC political analysts Steve Benen, with a slim GOP majority of just five votes in the House, McCarthy is walking a tightrope to get a budget deal passed and may need help from House Democrats if members of his caucus refuse to go along with him.

If McCarthy makes compromises to get Democratic votes, he may well be challenged with a test of his retaining his office and never get to introduce the negotiated compromise

As Benen points out, in order to win the speakership, McCarthy agreed to an easier path for a motion to "vacate the chair," which could end his tenure as Speaker. That could come into play if the Freedom Caucus stages a revolt.

"... as the negotiations approach an apparent finish line, the House Republicans’ most radical faction is learning that it isn’t likely to get everything its members demanded — and for the Freedom Caucus, that’s not going to work," Benen wrote in his MSNBC column.

Citing a Washington Times report that stated, "[Freedom Caucus members] want everything from the debt limit bill passed by the House last month plus several new concessions from the White House," Benen suggested far-right House Republicans are now making thinly veiled threats.

In an interview, Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX) stated…

"I am going to have to go have some blunt conversations with my colleagues and the leadership team. I don’t like the direction they are headed.”

Politico is reporting…

 "The [House Freedom Caucus] was already unlikely to support a final bipartisan deal, but lingering anger with Kevin McCarthy could have lasting implications on his speakership,"

"If this is simply a matter of lingering ill-will from members who come to believe that GOP leaders 'caved,' the practical consequences might be limited. But let’s also not forget that McCarthy while begging his own members for their support during his protracted fight for the speaker’s gavel, agreed to tweak the motion-to-vacate-the-chair rules, which at least in theory, would make it easier for angry House Republicans to try to oust McCarthy from his leadership position."

Adding the caveat that Roy is not predicting an imminent McCarthy ouster…

"But if the scope of the Freedom Caucus’ discontent reaches a fever pitch, a hypothetical deal clears thanks to significant Democratic support, don’t be surprised if we all start hearing the phrase 'vacate the chair" a lot more frequently."