The stock market has been back in business for five trading days in the new year and is up 2.69% on the S&P 500. Basically, the S&P 500 has been straight up since the Christmas Eve Massacre, December 24th.
From that low, the S&P 500 is up 9.49%. The Russell 2000 meanwhile is up 12.60%. For 2019, the Russell 2000 is up 5.76%. The NASDAQ 100 is up 3.51% and since December 24th 11.06%. Pretty impressive.
Since the end of 2012, we have been tracking the up and down moves on the S&P 500. There have been 35 up moves and this is the 36th move. The average up move is 7.16% and it last 43 trading days, effectively two months.
The last three up moves were 8.56%, 6.54% and 5.99%. This move is now 9.49%. So it could end its move in short order or it could go longer. That said, several of our overbought indicators are now overbought. So we need to see those signals reverse and kick in sell signals. Then expect the next down move to begin.
Down moves are typically shorter in nature lasting 21 days and on average fall -5.28%. It should be noted the last down move was powerful and caused the S&P 500 to fall -15.74% in only 18 days. It was the worst drop since the end of 2012.
We are working on extending the history of these moves to provide context for the current period we are in.