This past week the Stop Donald Trump Movement gained a good amount of steam. For one thing, two of the most credible Republican editorialists in the country, David Brooks from the New York Times, and syndicated Fox political analyst George Will, both spoke out about the danger Donald J. Trump represents to our country...
"Trump is a politician in the tradition of segregationist George Wallace because he believes that more “meanness” was needed in public discourse.
“The problem is this... Not only are Trump's negatives at 61 percent — almost double his positives, now hovering at just 32% — but he’s appealing entirely to white people."
While David Brooks wrote in his column...
“His remarks represent an extraordinary mix of inaccurate claims about domestic and foreign policy and personal and professional boasts that rarely measure up when checked against primary sources.”
"He is a childish man running for a job that requires maturity. He is an insecure boasting little boy whose desires were somehow arrested at age 12. He surrounds himself with sycophants. “You can always tell when the king is here,” Trump’s butler told Jason Horowitz in a recent Times profile. He brags incessantly about his alleged prowess, like how far he can hit a golf ball. “Do I hit it long? Is Trump strong?” he asks."
Never in recent memory has a leading Presidential candidate ever been confronted by the sort of backlash Trump is facing.
Investors should be focused on how a Trump Presidency would affect the U.S. economy.
Is it reasonable to believe that...
The forced deportation of 12 million undocumented people from the United States will NOT set off an economic free-fall, soaring wages, and labor shortages? The economic impact is one thing; but how about the social impact? Can you imagine the film footage we'd see in the news and social media? A modern day Schindler's List. President Eisenhower's "Operation Wetback" resulted in the deportation of thousands of legal U.S. citizens.
Unilaterally, walking away from negotiated trade deals wouldn't trigger a trade war and world-wide economic crisis? Throwing on top 35% tariffs on Mexican and Chinese imports would likely cause a recession; perhaps another great depression. Can you say Smoot Hawley!!!
Trump can actually defeat ISIS in Syria in a matter of weeks because he's a better and smarter executive than Barrack Obama? This is one of the most absurd of Trump's promises.
Repealing the Affordable Act and replacing it with Trump's proposed health care plan will not result in over 21 million people losing their health care policies? This has been estimated to increase the Federal Deficit by almost $500 billion in the subsequent 10 years!
Preventing Muslims from entering the United States is economically feasible and can be imposed without setting off a wave of anti-American sentiment and reciprocation world-wide? Are we really going to isolate 1 billion Muslims and expect no retaliation?
The pro-growth tax cuts won't wind up adding $1 Trillion a year to the U.S. Federal deficit over the first 10 years?
Investors should consider the economic experiments in Kansas and Louisiana where the pro-growth tax cutting policies of ultra conservative Governors Sam Brownback and Bobby Jindal have wreaked economic and social havoc.
Let's start with the evidence from Kansas ...
- The Koch-backed Kansas Policy Institute predicted Brownback’s 2013 tax plan would generate $323 million in new revenue during its first full year in operation; the plan produced a $688 million loss.
- Kansas’s job growth actually trailed that of its neighboring states. With that nearly $700 million deficit, the state had bought itself a 1.1 percent increase in jobs, just below Missouri’s 1.5 percent and Colorado’s 3.3.
- In 2015, job growth in Kansas was a mere 0.1 percent, even as the nation’s economy grew 1.9 percent.
- Brownback pledged to bring 100,000 new jobs to the state in his second term; as of January, he has brought 700.
- Personal income growth slowed dramatically from 6.1 percent to 3.6 percent. Falling from the 12th best income growth in the country to 41st!
- Revenue shortfalls have devastated the state’s public sector along with its most vulnerable citizens. Since Brownback’s inauguration, 1,414 Kansans with disabilities have been thrown off Medicaid.
- In 2015, six school districts in the state were forced to end their years early for lack of funding. Cuts to health and human services are expected to cause 65 preventable deaths this year in Sedgwick County alone.
- In February, tax receipts came in $53 million below estimates; Brownback immediately cut $17 million from the state’s university system.
Gov Bobby Jindal's pro-growth tax cuts have produced the same kind of results in Louisiana. When Bobby Jindal became Louisiana governor in 2008, he inherited a $1 billion surplus. When Jindal departed office, Louisiana faced a $1.6 billion projected deficit.
While some of the revenue collapse can be put on the past year's plummeting oil prices, the rest falls on Jindal's passing the largest tax cut in the state's history, then stubbornly refusing to reverse course when the state's oil industry started tanking.
Jindal's giveaway to the wealthiest citizens in the country's second-poorest state cost Louisiana roughly $800 million every year. To make up that gap, Jindal slashed social services, raided the state’s rainy-day funds, and papered over the rest with reckless borrowing. Today, the state is scrambling to resolve a $940 million budget gap for this fiscal year, with a $2 billion shortfall projected for 2017.
Donald Trump makes much about his anti-establishment credentials; and while that bothers the GOP establishment - it's Trump's economic policies that are alarming both knowledgeable liberals and conservatives.
This may be why Trump loves the uneducated so intensely. If you don't know his policies have been tested in Kansas and Louisiana and have failed miserably, you're likely to swallow whole Trump's promises.
David Brooks and George Will are well educated and well informed; and you can bet that's why they won't swallow Trump's empty promises and bravado.