Over the weekend it became clear that Prime Minister Theresa May doesn’t have enough support to hold a third vote on her withdrawal agreement. That pretty much rules out a so-called “Meaningful Vote 3” tomorrow. May, however, is an optimist who continues to say the possibility that she may be able to call for a vote in Parliament on her Brexit plan sometime late this week, but at best it’s not likely, at worst she’s dreaming.
If a deal is struck between the European Union and the United Kingdom by the March 29th deadline Britain will be able to leave the EU by May 22nd.
The most likely outcome at this point is Parliament taking the unprecedented step of seizing control of the entire Brexit negotiations and process from Prime Minister May. The House of Commons will vote later this week on an "amendable motion," which will likely include the option for lawmakers holding a series of "indicative" votes on various Brexit scenarios. May said she did not favor this approach, but even she recognizes and is resigned to the likelihood that she could lose control at any moment.
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While May and her government could ignore the results of the “indicative” votes, the Prime Minister has repeatedly said if the House of Commons votes in favor of a “Customs Union or some other off-the-shelf arrangement,” her government would likely not implement that kind of plan. It would be contrary to commitments the Conservative Party made to voters before the last general election, she said.
At this point, the likelihood of a complete impasse is growing Brexit and what we could end up seeing is the collapse of the May government and a new Brexit referendum, but of course, that will happen after a great deal of political misery for all involved.