Oil Once Again Moves Above $100 Per Barrel Level

Traders have concluded that Biden's visit to Saudi Arabia sends the message that OPEC+ will continue to restrict oil supply and that no single country can influence oil prices.

On Monday, oil prices in the United States climbed back close to the $100 a barrel barrier as investors took advantage of last week's heavy losses to scoop up the commodity with the idea that President Joe Biden's visit to Saudi Arabia will have a positive impact on U.S. relations with Saudi Arabia. The trip did not result in any guarantees being made by Saudi Arabia, one of the world's largest exporters of oil. On the other hand, Amos Hochstein, a senior official at the State Department, stated on Sunday that oil producers might take a few additional steps to improve supplies. The skyrocketing price of fuel has harmed the president's popularity at home in the run-up to the midterm elections in November.

Biden had hoped that he could convince Saudi Arabia to boost its oil production, which would reduce the amount of pressure placed on the world supply of oil. However, the price of Brent crude increased by 2.6 percent on Monday, reaching $103.88. This occurred when the foreign minister of Saudi Arabia, Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud, ended rumors of a rise in production. He stated that officials did not discuss oil at a US-Arab conference on Saturday and that the nations that make up the Opec+ oil cartel would continue to evaluate the market conditions.

"The message is that it is Opec+ that determines the oil supply decision, and the cartel is not even remotely interested in what Biden is attempting to achieve," said Naeem Aslam, the head market analyst at Avatrade.

Even though the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is getting ready to meet on August 3, there are still concerns that supplies are low. On Monday, a marginal decline in the dollar value, which was coming off of multiyear highs, contributed to an increase in oil price by making it a little more affordable for buyers based in other currencies. However, there are no indications yet that the cartel will increase output targets from their existing plans.

Since the middle of June, crude oil prices have been on a downward trajectory, reflecting growing concerns that a recession may reduce overall demand. The steep decline has caused both WTI and Brent to go below the barrier of $100 per barrel, with the U.S. benchmark at one point last week momentarily erasing gains that resulted from Russia's invasion of Ukraine on February 24.

On Monday, the price of oil increased by around 2 percent as investors became more concerned about the possibility of a supply shortage.

Following a meeting between Joe Biden and the leadership of Saudi Arabia, which resulted in no pledge to increase production, prices surpassed $100 per barrel. The rise in oil prices that occurred on Monday partially reverses some of the losses over the previous week due to fears of a recession.

A four-day trip around the Middle East that included discussions with Saudi Arabia's King Salman bin Abdulaziz and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman did not result in any guarantees regarding an increase in oil production. According to Reuters, the United States government is pinning its hopes on a meeting of OPEC+ on August 3. OPEC+ refers to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies.

"As a result of President Biden's recent trip to Saudi Arabia, during which he spoke with a number of Arab leaders, businesspeople have taken away one important take away from the trip. Naeem Aslam, the chief market analyst at AvaTrde, wrote in a note to investors, "The message is that it is OPEC+ that determines the oil supply decision, and the cartel isn't even interested. In what Biden is attempting to achieve."

"OPEC+ will continue to regulate oil supply, and one country alone cannot dictate the oil supply," said Aslam, adding that this is the message that traders have taken away from President Biden's visit to Saudi Arabia. "Earlier today, Brent oil prices crossed above the $100 price mark, and if the price continues to trade above this price mark, then it is highly likely that the path of least resistance will be skewed to the upside," said an analyst. "Brent oil prices have been trading above this price mark for the majority of today."

After reaching an all-time high of more than $5 per gallon in June, gas prices in the United States are expected to continue falling in the coming weeks to an average of around $4 per gallon, according to a top White House energy adviser named Amos Hochstein. Hochstein made this prediction on Sunday. In addition, he stated that the Biden administration took the actions in response to "exceptional circumstances" are thriving.

According to the most recent Commitment of Traders statement released by the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission, speculators and hedge funds halted their selling in the week leading up to July 12. Saxo Bank highlighted this. According to a statement Saxo provided to its customers, the speculation market "turned net purchasers of crude oil, copper, and sugar with selling concentrated in natural gas, soybeans, corn, wheat, and coffee."

On the international commodity markets, Russia is a significant player. It is one of the world's major exporters of essential raw resources such as wheat and grains, oil, natural gas, and coal, as well as gold and other precious metals, making it one of the most economically important countries in the world.

Following the country's invasion of Ukraine, a slew of unprecedented sanctions was imposed on Moscow to cut off its access to international financial markets and place it in a position of international isolation.

Although sanctions have not yet directly targeted Russia's energy exports, the United States and its European allies have stated that they are considering a restriction on Russia's imports of oil from Russia. This was announced on Sunday. Russia is the third-largest producer of oil and gas in the world, respectively, and the third-largest producer of gas. A prohibition would cause the company's customers to scramble for any alternative, regardless of the cost.

Brent crude futures jumped to over $130 a barrel on Monday, reaching their highest level since the middle of 2008. This was their highest level since the beginning of 2008.

However, it's not relatively as easy as that. Not only in the oil industry does Russia hold a dominant position. It is a major player in the global wheat and coal production markets. And there is a school of thought among industry professionals that believes Western politicians will refrain from imposing full-fledged embargoes because the subsequent price increases could do too much damage to their economies.

Traders have taken away from President Biden's trip to Saudi Arabia: "OPEC+ will continue to regulate oil supply," and "one country alone cannot dictate the oil supply."

The recent spike in the price of oil will keep the pressure that drivers are currently facing at the pumps, where gasoline and diesel prices have reached all-time highs. Because of the precipitous rise in prices, the government requested that the Competition and Markets Authority do research on the industry. The authority's preliminary results raised concerns regarding the profit margins enjoyed by refineries.

However, the cost of a barrel of Brent oil had decreased since reaching an all-time high of almost $130 in early March, when the conflict in Ukraine was just beginning.

For the sixth week in a row, oil prices declined the previous week. The possibility of a worldwide economic slowdown is causing investors to exit commodity markets, which has caused prices to fall.

In the midst of a mad scramble for supply in Europe, energy dealers are also keeping a careful eye on the price of gas.

                       WTI price target estimated to be around $130 by year-end: Energy Aspects' Amrita Sen