July 5, 2020 12:05 AM RSS

Officially the Count of Cases of COVID-19 is 71,449; Could the Real Count be over 1 Million?

  • Wall Street Rebel | James DiGeorgia
  • 02/17/2020 11:06 AM
Officially the Count of Cases of COVID-19 is 71,449; Could the Real Count be over 1 Million?

What if the actual number of those infected with the coronavirus isn’t 71,449 but closer to 1 million and the death total is over 100,000; Could the cover-up be explained as an effort to prevent a world-wide panic.

By James DiGeorgia

Last week we were told by the Chinese government that because they have changed the way the coronavirus (COVID-19) was being diagnosed they had decided to jump the number of both the number of those infected by 15,000 in a single day and increased the number to deaths from the potentially deadly virus to 1,500.

The revelation of a much higher infection rate and the failure of the Chinese to still allow U.S. scientists and medical experts in viral health crisis from the Centers of Disease and Control (CDC) to travel to China and help in a myriad of ways to classify and hopefully contain the virus has the Trump Administration gravely concerned about the numbers of those infected being dramatically undercounted.

This past Friday, the CDC latest risk assessment indicated that the 2019-2020 coronavirus epidemic was unlikely to be contained before the end of 2020. This directly contradicts President Trump’s assurances that COVID-19 is “under control and will end soon,” an echo of what China’s President Xi is saying publically and privately to President Trump.

President Trump remains so enamored with President Xi he is unable to recognize that a man that runs concentration camps holding over 1 million of his country’s Muslim minority is a pathological liar. The old saying it takes one to recognize another one may result in millions of COVID-19 infections and deaths.

On Friday, the CDC warning about the longevity of the COVID-19 epidemic was just one of several gloomy predictions made in the prior 48 hours, as the number of cases in China continued to grow and totals of those infected tick up slowly in other countries like Japan, Singapore, Great Britain and the United States.

The spread drew comments from a Harvard epidemiologist quoted in a Wall Street Journal article saying… 

“I think it is likely we’ll see a global pandemic. If a pandemic happens, 40% to 70% of people worldwide are likely to be infected in the coming year.”

The suggestion that 70% of the world’s population may be infected would amount to over 5.358 billion infections and even at a very conservative death toll of 2% would mean COVID-19 deaths reaching over 107 million. The Harvard epidemiologist statement is backed by some terrifying math, including the idea that not only are the number of cases being reported in China only 10% of the real total but that cases outside of China might only represent 25% of what is actually happening.

The Daily Mail, a UK newspaper pointed out on Sunday that, unfortunately, we have a floating experiment that may prove the Harvard epidemiologist quoted in the Wall Street Journal may be right…

“When looking at cases outside China, the first location that becomes an obvious red flag in Japan. Official tallies list only 49 cases, but that number seems to be excluding four cases that have, so far, been asymptomatic, as well what are now 285 people aboard the Diamond Princess Cruise ship. But even disregarding the ship and the over 3,000 people still waiting for some resolution, there has been a steady drumbeat of additional cases in Japan. That includes 8 cases in a single day from Tokyo, at least some of which are connected to a taxi driver who attended a party with nearly 100 guests. The number of secondary and tertiary infections in Japan, unrelated to someone who had been in China, is seriously concerning.”

But Japan is getting some relief as American passengers are now being removed from the Diamond Princess, a process that will take several days. These evacuees are being removed from the cruise ship and then being flown on chartered flights straight into quarantine in the United States.

One issue of great concern is that only those passengers who have tested negative for coronavirus will be allowed on the flights home. The testing maybe flawed because while at least half of those who have tested positive for coronavirus on the ship have had no symptoms, we have learned people with the virus may not test positive for 14 days and in fact, still prove to be contagious in future days.

The Daily Mail goes on to point out that...

This U.S. approach…

”Is a reversal of what’s happening in most areas “in the wild,” where people demonstrate symptoms, are tested, and cases are tallied. The situation on the Princess involves people who are being tested, despite not having symptoms, and many of them are still found to be carrying the virus."

The Daily Mail points out…

“This is a big boost to the ‘lots of undetected cases’ theory. Not only are there people whose symptoms are mild enough, they may not be reported, there are apparently a sizable number with essentially no symptoms at all. What’s not clear — how great a threat these asymptomatic cases remain for passing COVID-19 to others."

For example, other areas with similar numbers of infections have resulted in bursts of cases that were only discovered after patients were tested, cleared and then found to be infected later. Singapore last week reported new cases overnight on February 13th, then 24 hours later they had 9 cases come in, most of them related to a church that has now been connected with 13 cases. 

The Daily Mail went on to point out that…

“With 67 cases, they’re right with Japan in terms of developing new epicenters outside of China, though if you wanted to pick two spots to combat an infection—it would be hard to do better than Japan and Singapore.”

A reference to their mature medical safety net and advanced preparedness in the wake of the prior SARS outbreaks in Asia, but the danger in less prepared countries has raised concerns by the likes of Bill Gates who gave a speech in Seattle that expressed concern that 1 million people I Africa could be infected.

Travel between China and Africa has been steadily increasing, as Chinese companies have made a major play for both African resources and infrastructure projects over the last year.

As reported by Wall Street Rebel, Africa on Friday saw its first confirmed case of COVID-19, with the Egyptian ministry of health reporting that a “foreign person” had tested positive for the virus and would be in “self-imposed” isolation for 14 days. The announcement indicated that this infected person might have been trusted to stay at their own residence. If the person has any contact with any other person, they could end up infecting several people who infect more people and end up infecting 10 million people as predicted as a nightmare scenario described by Bill Gates.

Can we trust that since the big jump on Thursday some 13,000 cases, the number of newly reported infected have again flattened out? The latest provincial report from Hubei showed 2,420 total new cases, but only 1,282 that were lab-confirmed. If the province had not begun adding clinical cases, we could be seeing experts painting a very cheery picture of actual cases. 

Even with the clinical cases included, it does look as if Hubei has worked through a lot of the backlog.

ALT: (Chart Coronavirus Cases by day)Another positive indication for some optimism assuming China is accurately reporting came on Thursday when China rolled back most of the other frightening statistic by subtracting 108 deaths as “double-counted.”

ALT: (Charts Coronavirus Cases)It’s not good news that the number of outcomes still hasn’t reached that turnover point where more people are recovering than getting sick.

ALT: (Charts Coronavirus Cases)It’s very important to consider that the big influx of clinical cases announced last week of 13,000 actually drove the case fatality rate down temporarily, but the number of deaths is once again trending slowly upward.

ALT: (Charts Coronavirus Cases)
So, the real question is, are there hundreds of thousands of people infected with coronavirus, many of them wandering outside of China?

The math theoretically indicates when looking at the Diamond Princess as a real-life “experiment” that we all remain in the dark as to how bad this COVID-19 health crisis will be.  There doesn’t seem to be a sign that the assumed numbers of hidden cases among the 50-70 million Chinese are generating new epicenters, but we must recognize researchers and physicians despite this outbreak being more than five weeks old still don’t yet understand everything about COVID-19.

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