Morning Matters Portfolio Update

by Geoffrey Garbacz | 12/16/2015 02:28 PM
Morning Matters Portfolio Update

The S&P 500 is lower by -0.98% in the last week and for the year -0.75%. The Nasdaq Composite moves back below 5000 and the Dow remains above 17500 after a brief move below.

The portfolio remains 58% invested long, 0% short and 42% in cash, net long 58%. We are now at a value of 986.92% from 994.28% last week. We finished 2014 at a value of 951.10 up 29.86% for that year. Our current value is 986.92% which puts the portfolio up 3.63% for 2015 without dividends which is nice outperformance to the S&P 500 and other indexes.

Below are the year by year results on a cumulative and absolute basis:
Basis









It appears for now that 2050 on the S&P 500 has become resistance again. We are now at 2043.41 which is lower than a week ago. A big test for the week was to see if the S&P 500 could stay above 2100, it did not remain there. A failure at 2050 now throws into question whether we can hold 2000 and then 1950, effectively a higher retest. It should be noted we tested 2000 on Monday and held it.

We would like to be through through the retest concept but until the Russell 2000 and S&P 400 Mid Cap Index start to participate in gains we will remain with this view. This started to happen in the past month but ended in the last several weeks.

ETFs recommendations can be found in The Madison Letter within Superstock Investor. Since 2014, this has been updated each Friday with Market Crash Indicators.

Remember these returns are total returns with the average change for all winners and losers is 8.70% per idea. Our batting average of closed winners and losers is 70%. The portfolio is up to a value of 986.92% and from inception when it began at 0% in April of 2008.

We have never added in dividends so our weekly results are understated since 2008.

The Russell 2000 is now lagging the S&P 500 on a daily basis. The Madison Letter is still invested and the A/D line signal is now back to cash late last week.

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