James Pethokoukis CNBC contributor reported Thursday JPMorgan economists had revised the Wall Street investment firm’s GDP forecast down to negative 2% annualized growth of the first quarter of 2020, and negative 3% percent in the second quarter.
The latest JPMorgan forecast assumes the government will enact half a trillion-dollar fiscal stimulus and suggests that growth could return to positive in the third quarter if the spread of coronavirus slows.
A recession is defined as two or more consecutive quarters of negative annualized GDP growth. However, the National Bureau of Economic Research no longer follows this standard, instead of describing a recession as…
“A significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.”
By either definition, if the new JPMorgan forecast holds, the U.S. economy could be declared in recession as soon as July.
JP Morgan expects a global recession in 2020, chief economist says