How Ugly Will the Last 70 Days of Trump’s Presidency Be?
President Trump’s political power remains immense. More than 70 million American’s voted for him, and a majority of these supporters wouldn’t turn their backs on him even if he gunned down thousands of peaceful protesters on 5th Ave. The fact is tens of millions of Americans would be okay with him being President for life, even if the streets of America become littered with the body’s of peaceful protestors.
The Dow Jones is soaring today as I write this article after the news was released that Pfizer (PFE-NYSE) has possibly developed a coronavirus vaccine that is 90% effective. This has all the major stock indexes in the United States euphoric and rallying to new all-time highs. The reality that even if the FDA grants emergency approval of the new vaccine, it will not be available for widespread use until late spring or early summer has not dimmed the excitement.
Make no mistake about it. The stock market is not discounting the rollout of the vaccine or any other issues that could pop what has become a giant bubble. I think a stock market bubble is much worse than the technology bubble of 2000 or the financial crises in 2008-2009 that led to the worst economic crises since the great depression.
The euphoria over this promising Pfizer vaccine today is so great that investors, money managers and other stock market participants ignore the Pfizer vaccine’s long rollout and other potentially devastating issues the U.S. economy faces, including but not limited to …
- The likelihood of U.S. coronavirus infections growing to 200,000 a day and the risk of deaths once again potentially climbing back into the 2,000 death range, even if Pfizer has a vaccine, it will not be available to the public until late spring or even early summer to the general public. We still have a long period of darkness ahead. 42 States are experiencing rising infections and we could see hospital crises much worse than we saw a few months ago.
- President Trump’s bitter drawn out fight to prevent President-Elect Biden from being certified as the election winner. Trump knows he is potentially fighting not just for a second term but literally for his freedom. The criminal investigation taking place in front of a Manhattan Grand Jury threatens not only President Trump but his three oldest children. His losing the presidency will make it much easier for Cyrus Vance Jr. to pursue and indict Trump, his children, and other Trump Organization officers.
- Trump is now also facing a civil investigation into him, his three oldest children, and his Trump Organization business practices, including if one or all committed tax fraud, money laundering, wire fraud, bank fraud and dozens of other felonies. Attorney General Letitia James of New York could move the investigation from civil to a criminal at any moment in the next several months. President Trump knows this – and is panicking over his, his family and business exposure.
Trump TERRIFIED About Going to Prison If He Loses
The eviction and mortgage crisis that continues to develop across the country as unemployment benefits and other protections expire from the Cares Act. We have over 20 million people on unemployment benefits and another estimated 10 million underemployed in the United States.
- The GOP appears to have held on to the U.S. Senate and may fight another relief and stimulus bill. Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell has repeatedly warned the Fed can’t keep the economy afloat without the legislative and executive branch making sure it provides a large stimulus bill.
Investors are ignoring the damage Trump can do in the next 70 days.
Trump is capable of rallying his 70 million supporters very effectively: The threat of criminal prosecution, personal and business bankruptcies, and risk of prison sentences may compel President Trump to hold rallies, marches and civil disobedience across the country, all designed to fight the election result and to get himself and his off the preverbal hook.
Trump’s legal options for overturning the election are nothing more than wishful thinking and vaporizing one after another. Today he lost one of his appeals in Michigan.
Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner and the first lady have reportedly told him he’d been defeated and he should now focus on his post-presidency. That, however, may not prevent Trump from instigating riots and civil disorder in hopes of leveraging an immunity deal for him, his family and criminals tied to his circle from the states he and they are facing a reckoning with like New York, Illinois, Virginia, and the District of Columbia. He also has to worry about the new incoming U.S. Attorney General and head of the Southern District of New York that will be selected by President-Elect Biden.
President Trump is in a position to make the remaining 70 days – and for that matter the next year or two years a hideous time in this history of this country.
Suppose the President is indicted for his obstruction of justice as outlined in the Mueller Russian Interference Report and indicted in New York State for various tax, currency and bank felonies. In that case, there is the potential for some really dark days ahead.
Trump on losing slippery slide