June 1, 2020 08:53 PM RSS

Economic Forecasts of Unemployment Exceeding Historical 25% Peak Becoming Routine

  • Wall Street Rebel | James DiGeorgia
  • 04/09/2020 2:36 PM
Economic Forecasts of Unemployment Exceeding Historical 25% Peak Becoming Routine

Unemployment claims of 16.8 million in three weeks as coronavirus ravages economy

 

April 09, 2020

COVID-19 Coronavirus Outbreak – World StatisticsEmail

Coronavirus Cases:

1,582,127

Closed Cases:

442,875

Deaths:

94,556

Recovered:

348,319

Currently Infected Patients

1,139,252

 

 

 

 

United States

Coronavirus Cases:

455,454

Closed Cases:

40,693

Deaths:

16,114

Recovered:

24,579

 


The 6.6 million unemployment claims reported for the week ending April 4 came on top of nearly 10 million claims filed in the prior two weeks, according to the Labor Department. Many economists are pointing out that state unemployment offices are being overwhelmed by applications, and the reported number may not actually match the actual count of the unemployment picture.

We appear to be on course for the worst unemployment picture since the Great Depression, by comparison, the number of jobs lost in just three weeks now exceeds the 15 million job loss that took 18 months during the Great Recession to reach from 2007 to 2009.

Glassdoor Senior Economist Daniel Zhao in a statement...

“In its first month alone, the coronavirus crisis is poised to exceed any comparison to the Great Recession…The new normal for UI claims will be the canary in the coal mine for how long the effects of the crisis will linger for the millions of newly unemployed Americans.”

The jobless claims are soaring, and tens of thousands of businesses are being forced to close, into bankruptcy. Our leaders in Washington are attempting to release trillions of dollars in financial assistance to both individuals and businesses to circumvent this economic disaster.

The Federal Reserve Thursday morning unveiled emergency programs that could dole out more than $2 trillion in loans to businesses of all sizes, as well as to struggling state and city governments. Democrats are objecting to a Republican proposal in the U.S. Senate on Thursday over an additional $250 billion to expand the SBA express loan program. The proposed legislation ignores the plight of hospitals that are being crushed by what will be 500,000 cases of coronavirus, by the end of the week.

According to Heidi Shierholz, policy director at Economic Policy Institute, the 16.8 million unemployment claims filed between March 15 and April 4, works out to more than one in ten workers seeking jobless benefits. That would indicate that if we aren’t already at a 10% unemployment rate, we will be. Shierholz tweeted…

“We are nowhere near the end of this…The labor market has been upended.”

Applying for state unemployment has become a nightmare. Lines across America are requiring claimants to stand in line for 2, 3 even 4 hours just to get applications. New York has added 1,000 employees to process unemployment applications. Governor Cuomo pointed out New York used to process 1000 employment application, and now needs an army to do so.

Florida unemployment figures show the sunshine state has been less hard-hit, with only 170,000 claims filed last week. In the nation’s third-largest state, there was a decrease from the record 228,000 residents who applied for unemployment benefits two weeks ago. But the number of unemployed in Florida is likely much higher. Technical glitches plague the state’s unemployment benefits website online application system making it inaccessible for tens of thousands of residents.

Part of the increase in applications is due to the expansion of eligible workers. Workers that are eligible to apply include gig workers, independent contractors, and workers who, in ordinary times, wouldn’t have worked long enough to qualify for unemployment benefits, but became eligible as a result of Congress’s $2 trillion coronavirus rescue package last month. That bill also increased employment benefits people will receive by an additional $600 a week across the board.

The 6.6 million claims filed last week will likely set a new record that goes back to 1967, when the U.S. Labor Department started keeping records.

Rep. Don Beyer (D-Va.), vice chairman of the Congressional Joint Economic Committee, in a statement stated…

“This is a catastrophe…Nearly 17 million Americans have lost their jobs, and they likely won’t find another one until the contagion is under control—and that may be a long way off.”

While The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported U.S. employers shed 701,000 jobs in March, and the unemployment rate was pushed up to 4.4%. Still, the survey week for that figure was only through mid-March, well before more than 10 million people filed unemployment. Most estimates put the current unemployment rate a nearly 10% at this point

So far the last month’s expansion of unemployment benefits, including $600 added to every unemployment check through July, could blunt losses from mass layoffs but may need to be expanded through the not just the end of this year but through the first half of 2021.

Andrew Hunter, the senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics, acknowledges that the unemployment rate may continue to soar but suggests…

“…the damage in terms of lost income may end up being less severe.”

It should be noted that there’s a long line of economists that disagree entirely with Hunter. Many are predicting the worst recession or even the worst depression in U.S. history that will undoubtedly be aggravated and worsened by the reality that this economic dislocation isn’t just

The coronavirus pandemic’s international economic impact has been devastating. Canada’s latest federal employment report released Thursday morning revealed our neighbor to the north lost more than a million jobs in March. That amounts to a decline of 5.3% of employment in a country with a population of just 37 million. This drives Canada’s unemployment rate from 5.6% in February to 7.8% — its most substantial one-month increase since comparable data became available in 1976. It also indicates that Canada, like the United States, is also heading into a deep recession or depression. The misery is global. 


           16 Million Total Unemployment Claims Made In The Past Three Weeks | Morning Joe | MSNBC


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