The Senate appears to be a long shot for a Democratic takeover but the polls are all over the place. Many of polls may be flawed because they are based on both the 2014 and 2016 post-election turnout models. The ramifications of a Democratic takeover of the Senate takeover would be nightmarish for POTUS and the GOP.
By Michael London
The political pundits and professional polling experts are all in agreement that anything could happen when the votes are counted tomorrow.
The tremendous early voting turnout and the millions of newly registered voters participating in this election have created a great deal of doubt for both Democrats and Republicans. Independents are breaking decisively for the Democrats, while women are indicating as much as a 30-pt preference against the President and Republicans.
Hurting the prospects of the GOP is President Trump’s approval numbers among likely voters. According to Nate Silver’s fivethrityeight.com is showing an average of just 43.6% and even the most optimistic polls in the last few days put Trump’s approval at only 46% a number that in 2006 and 2010 delivered devastating losses in the house and senate for Presidents Bush and Obama. Further, all adults polled, give POTUS approval rating of just 40%.
Special: Imagine an options trading service that has delivered over 4,872% in winning trade recommendations over 11 years. That's 442% a year in winning trade recommendations. Check it out! Just $49 for the first 60 days!
Should the 43.6% approval average of fivethrityeight.com prove accurate, the Democrats would likely end up with as many as 54 seats in the House and a 51 Senate seats – a disaster for President Trump and the Republican party.
One group in position to decide this election is black women. Like the Alabama special election, black women could be the difference in crucial contests in Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, and Nevada.
The difference between controlling the House and the Senate
come January would be dramatic. Trump and his administration would face investigations by both houses of Congress at the same time. This would bring a steady parade of embarrassing publically televised hearings that would make the GOP Benghazi fiasco look like an informal investigation.
The optics ahead would be bad enough if the Democrats were just to win the House without any other political problems. A re-opening of the Russian Congressional probe would almost certainly mean many of the witnesses that testified behind closed doors and refused to answer questions or produce documents would find themselves facing the prospect of answering very embarrassing questions by claiming 5th Amendment protections, and contempt of Congress prosecution.
A Democratic-controlled House would also likely release documents extremely embarrassing to President Trump that has not been released and have been protected from the light of day by the House Republican leadership.
Wall Street Rebel for all of these reasons believes that while there is a pattern of Wall Street relief rallies following U.S. midterm elections historically, any rally following Tuesday would be short-lived given the cross-current of economic uncertainties that will still survive the result of tomorrow’s election.