A Really Smart Dumb Bet On Papa Johns International (PZZA)

by Geoff Garbacz | 02/28/2018 12:31 AM
A Really Smart Dumb Bet On Papa Johns International (PZZA)

Sometimes you just have to laugh at how stupid people can be. The best place to see this time and again is the most active option trades for the day.

Today Papa Johns (PZZA) traded 74,986 of the March 42.50 Put. The last trade was $0.05 or $5 a contract. So for this trade to work it will need to trade below $42.40 to break even.
There are 13 trading days for this to happen. Unlikely.

That is the dumb part of the trade. The smart part of the trade or the "insider trading" part of the trade was knowing that the company was going to a/miss their number and b.lose the NFL contract. Both of which happened after the close.

It would be ironic for someone to go to jail for insider trading where they lost money but clearly someone knew. However, the stock needed to drop by $14 or 24.82%. Again, this proves buying way out of the money puts is like buying a Powerball ticket., you are not going to win. It would have been much better to buy an in the money put.

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