13 Down Days In October WIth 8 Up Days On The S&P 500

by Geoff Garbacz | 10/31/2016 11:31 PM

October was not kind to the S&P 500. The index fell -1.94%. Meanwhile, the Russell 2000 fell -4.81%. So what lies ahead for November? Hopefully some clarity on the election and good riddance to all the ads the have been hitting the airwaves.

To answer this question, I like to look at how many down trading days the S&P 500 saw in October. The answer is 13. No Octobers from 2012 through 2015 saw that may down days. In fact, since October 2012, there have only been 5 other months that saw 13 down days in the S&P 500.

In all cases, the next month the S&P 500 had less down days and was higher the next month two times (0.85% and 3.17%) and lower three times (-0.12%, -2.64% and -1.38%). So there is no pattern of note.

So the markets will continue to play a waiting game until next week or there is greater clairty on the FBI email investigation.