Rebel Yell Morning Market Report
Your Daily Financial Market Briefing - Giving You An Investing Edge Before Each Trading Day Begins
The Morning Market Report is dedicated to keeping you a few steps ahead of the market’s ups and downs, so you can improve your investing, and trading results. Every morning you will wake to up-to-date market data and economic analysis that will affect your investing decisions today. Your daily look ahead reports on what you should know and what is happening now in financial markets, U.S. and world economies, earning reports, sector trends, investment news, and much, much more. The Morning Market Report delivers financial investing information when you need it most, before the markets open!
Driven largely by gas prices U.S. consumer prices grew in October at the fastest rate since January 1, 2018
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Stocks are modestly higher as we begin the second day of the week. Yesterday was a struggle. Can we have a turnaround Tuesday?
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Holy cow. There are multiple merger announcements this morning. SAP took out Qualtrics which was going public this week.
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There is no follow through from Wednesday's pop. Yesterday saw the S&P 500 close lower. This morning futures are ugly.
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Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) to announce latest interest rate update at 2:00 p.m.. No change expected. Last meeting without a press conference.
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The Mid Terms have come and gone. The results are expected. The Democrats took back the House. The Republicans kept control of the Senate. Next event of importance is tomorrow's Federal Reserve announcement.
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Today is all about the Mid Terms. We have lots of coverage on it today. Enjoy the coverage in the Rags & Mags section.
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The, Russell 2000, NASDAQ 100, S&P 100 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average were higher for the week.
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This morning we got a very strong jobs number, 250,000. Watch to see the impact on bonds. Also, we now hyperlink our news story in the briefing.
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Expect stocks to settle into a range after the easy gains off the lows. Investors will be in wait and see mode on how the mid terms play out. Also, Apple earnings will be out at the close.
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It looks like the market is handing investors a treat but could it be a trick by the close?
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U.S. futures: S&P +17 Dow Jones +116, NDX +14 and Russell 2000 +2.50 with fair values LOWER helping open. Asia higher and Europe lower at 8:10 a.m. EDT.
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The Russell 2000, NASDAQ 100, S&P 100 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average were lower for the week. Geopolitical Events. Wednesday the Bank of Japan (BOJ) announces its latest interest rate decision. Thursday the Bank of England (BOE) announces its latest interest rate decision.
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Q3 GDP out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and came in at 3.5% versus consensus of 3.3%.
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Stocks are higher this morning as they attempt to rebound from the third biggest selloff of the year. A good start so far but it is a long day ahead. The Euro is selling off post the ECB latest announcement and press conference.
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U.S. futures: S&P -3 Dow Jones +73, NDX +2 and Russell 2000 -1.50 with fair values LOWER helping open. Asia lower and Europe higher.
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Year to date there are still 59% of stocks lower for the year. The strong that existed at the end of August is gone. What will bring the carnage to an end? There are multiple answers including trade resolution, Federal Reserve improved guidance and continued earnings and economic strength.
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This is a big week for earnings as many of the largest companies in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 will report earnings.
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IPOs on deck LogicBio Therapeutics (LOGC) NIU Technologies (NIU) SolawWinds (SWI). Secondaries of note AKTS INAP KRYS.
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Can I buy stocks? Despite the Tuesday pop there is no clear buy signal emerging. So we need to remain sitting on our hands and wait for more signs that we are at the low as opposed to a low.
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Yesterday we wrote about 2% moves and the conclusion is they only happen in corrective action. Make sure to read the review. More to point, the S&P 500 has been unable to rally for two days in a row since September 20th.
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Aaron Rodgers led another fourth quarter comeback for the Green Bay Packers. Very impressive and it leads us to compare Rodgers to the stock market in that he/the market refuse to break.
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10% of the S&P 500 will report earnings this week. Bank America (BAC), Harris Corp (HRS) and L3 (LLL) all beat earnings estimates this morning.
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U.S. futures: S&P +29 Dow Jones +251, NDX +108 and Russell 2000 +15 with fair values LOWER helping open. Asia and Europe bouncing as well.
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U.S. futures: S&P -20 Dow Jones -206, NDX -46 and Russell 2000 -10.40 with fair values higher increasing the pain. Asia and Europe significantly lower as well.
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Today sees several Fed heads speak. The first is up at 10:30 a.m. EDT and the last is 7:15 p.m. EDT. Key will be to see if there is any walk back of "far from neutral policy".
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U.S. futures: S&P -18 Dow Jones -153, NDX -50 and Russell 2000 -9.30 with fair values lower helping to lessen the pain. Asia weaker and Europe lower as well.
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Releases of note this week and next include the weekly chain store sales, oil/gas numbers, mortgage applications and jobless claims as well as NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, PPI, CPI and University of Michigan Sentiment Index.
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September Nonfarm Payrolls was out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and expected to 134,000 from 184,000. However, the ADP Payroll Number came in hot at 235,000.
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U.S. futures: S&P -10 Dow Jones -82, NDX -39 and Russell 2000 -9 with fair values lower helping to lessen the pain. Asia weaker with Europe mixed.
The top news story for today is China spying on the U.S.
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There is a ton of Fedspeak that could upend markets today. Pay attention to the times that markets could be impacted.
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This morning CNBC interviewed one of the top money managers in the world Ron Baron. He is a large holder of Tesla and thinks that the stock could get to $1 trillion in market cap by 2030.
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Releases of note this week and next include the weekly chain store sales, oil/gas numbers, mortgage applications and jobless claims as well as construction spending, ISM Manufacturing Index, ADP Employment Report, ISM Services, factory orders and the nonfarm payrolls along with the unemployment rate.
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U.S. futures: S&P -9.25 Dow Jones -101, NDX -31.25 and Russell 2000 -6.70 with fair values flat. Asia higher and Europe lower.
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U.S. futures: S&P +3 Dow Jones +17, NDX +22 and Russell 2000 +2.10 with fair values flat. Asia higher and Europe lower.
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The FOMC will announcement today at 2:00 p.m. EDT that they are going to raise interest rates. It will be the third increase of the year. One more is expected in December. Key will be guidance about next year.
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This morning President Trump address the United Nations. Key topics will be North Korea, Iran and trade. Watch the Treasury Auction at 1:00 p.m. EDT.
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Economic Releases. Releases of note this week include the weekly chain store sales, oil/gas numbers, mortgage applications and jobless claims as well as consumer confidence, new home sales ...
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U.S. futures: S&P -1 Dow Jones +25, NDX -1 and Russell 2000 -1 with fair values lower creating gains. Asia mixed and Europe mixed. British remain tough on Brexit.
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Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, is a must read and a must follow if you can get his research. One of our readers introduced me to Hartnett's writing several years ago and I am better investor because of it. Why?
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Is the Chinese economy in trouble? I am shocked that the number two leader in China, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang, who spoke this morning at the opening of a World Economic Forum conference in Tianjin, China indicated that possible future.
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The yield on the 10 year treasury has moved back to 3.00%. Will it stop there or are we finally going to move to a new yield high? The recent high on yield happened in May at 3.11%.
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On Monday's we highlight the week ahead as investors need to understand what can impact trading. The biggest catalyst this week will be the pending tariffs on China that the president has indicated will be enacted this week.
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Have a great weekend as the last week of summer is upon us. Remember on Friday's we only produce The Daily Briefing section of Rebel Yell. Over the weekend, look for Weekend Reads.
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The dollar via Powershares DB U.S. Dollar Index Bullish ETF (UUP) peaked in August and looks ready to made start a corrective period. In our weekly chart review in Superstock Investor, we noticed this potential.
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PPI Came in light with a drop of -0.1% and the estimate was 0.2%. So the Producer Price Index shows no inflation fears. Remember we want to pay attention to PPI and CPI, tomorrow, to get a handle if ...
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Today is 9/11. Spend a few minutes watching the ceremonies on the networks. This is an important part of our history. As a New Yorker during the event, it impacted me greatly. I will never forget.
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The lead event for today is AT&T (T) and their long awaited investor conference to provide clues on the integration with Time Warner. AT&T now pays a dividend of 6% and the stock price has gone lower since the acquisition which makes zero sense.
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August Nonfarm Payrolls is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to rise to 187,000 from 157,000. The unemployment rate is expected to stay at 3.9%.
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U.S. futures: S&P +1, Dow Jones +26, NDX +2.25 and Russell 2000 +0.70 with fair values lower reducing losses. Asia and Europe up slightly.
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U.S. futures: S&P -7, Dow Jones -82, NDX -24.50 and Russell 2000 -3.30 with fair values lower reducing losses. Asia and Europe lower.
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Traders return from summer vacations en masse today and we will have a myriad of issues facing markets in the the first week back.
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We are doing a brief Rebel Yell this morning as we get ready for Labor Day weekend. Remember on Fridays in summer there is no Daily Briefing rather just some commentary. That will end next week as the Daily Briefing will be out Tuesday through Friday with Monday being The Week Ahead.
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Gold continues to struggle. Tuesday it failed to move above $115 on GLD. Moreover, the Erlanger Volume Swing (EVS) failed to cross above 0 and began a move lower which is never a good sign.
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Expect a pullback in short order as the S&P 500 is officially overbought. The other times we were this overbought included July, May and January. In each instance, there was downside action.
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This is a rather slow news week as well head into Labor Day weekend. Next week will kick of business travel as well a ton of sellside conferences before third quarter earnings start in October. Also, of note August 29th is the deadline that Robert Mueller has put forth to move against the President if he is going to act before the mid term elections in November.
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Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will be speaking at the Federal Reserve Kansas City District's Jackson Hole Symposium. Speech time is 10:00 a.m. EDT. This is the must-attend event of the year for central bankers.
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My quick comment is the S&P 500 is trying and I repeat trying to clear the January high. The Russell 2000 and the S&P 400 have done so but the S&P 500, S&P 100 and Dow Jones Industrial Average have yet to do so.
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Today at 2:00 p.m. EDT we get the latest minutes from the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held in July. Watch to see if the wording has changed to reflect any slowing of rate increases.
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This morning we see that Swiss watch sales are being hurt by tariffs. Also, we see that New York City luxury apartment sales have seen prices drop by 31% as the luxury market is being hit by tariffs.
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On Mondays in Rebel Yell, we lay out the week ahead. Without a doubt the most important event of the week is the Jackson Hole Symposium that we wrote about last night. Also, on Thursday in front of Jackson Hole the European Central Bank (ECB) will lay out its latest interest rate policy update.
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The current environment is one where the stock picker is flourishing. As an example, Walmart (WMT) is higher by 10% this morning and JC Penney (JCP) is lower by -22%. So Walmart is killing it while J.C. Penney is dead on the vine. Yesterday, Macy's (M) fell -14%.
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Retail sales are out this morning for July and they ripped higher. The estimate was for growth of 0.1% and the sales grew at 0.5%. Earlier this week, Home Depot (HD) beat estimates.
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Home Depot (HD) beat estimates by $0.20 and beat on revenues as well. The company raised guidance for the third quarter. This is typical of earnings reports in July and August.
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Yesterday we sent out The Week Ahead on Sunday. Going forward, it will go out then. On Mondays, we will put a summary of our weekend reading.
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The Turkish Lira hits a new low this morning as the U.S. Dollar continues to rise. The Lira is off by 11% this morning as its President President Recep Tayyip Erdogan states that the U.S. might have Dollars but we have Allah.
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Bloomberg report this morning that Russian market hurt by recent U.S. sanctions. China is feeling the heat within country over challenging the U.S. on tariffs
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Gold, silver and copper mixed. WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures lower. Natural Gas is lower. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs. Pound and higher vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury price 119.44 with yields higher since yesterday.
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President Trump is on vacation. Usually summer presidential vacations are a good time for markets because Congress is also on vacation. However, this president even when he is on vacation seems to not be on vacation.
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Geopolitical Issues: Monday sees U.S. sanctions against Iran go into effect. Wednesday sees Federal Reserve Richmond President Tom Barkin speak.
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Well the latest jobs report is out and it was a disappointment. The actual number was 157,000. The estimate was 190,000. The number in July was 248,000. So this number is all over the place.
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U.S. futures: S&P -15.25, Dow Jones -154, NDX -54.25 and Russell 2000 -8 with fair values flat. Asia and Europe lower on trade worries that refuse to disappear.
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Today sees the Federal Reserve announce their latest interest rate decision. Odds are they will not raise and leave the next raise for the September meeting. However, Bloomberg is reporting that they may slow the rate increases from this point onward.
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This morning we look at iShares S&P Growth Allocation Fund ETF (AOR). This chart has been a struggle all year and keeps me awake at night.
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U.S. futures: S&P -4.50, Dow Jones -52, NDX -56 and Russell 2000 -0.30 with fair values flat. Asia lower and Europe higher.
Gold and silver lower with copper higher. WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures mixed. Natural Gas is higher.
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This morning auto stocks are struggling as the cost of materials is hitting them. Fiat Chrysler (FCAU) missed estimates by $-0.22 with earnings of $0.62. This was lower than a year ago at $0.69. General Motors (GM) also lowered guidance. Ironic that autos are at the front of the tariff issue just as they get hit on the cost of goods sold side.
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Tomorrow sees the European Union led by Jean-Claue Juncker and Trade Chief Cecilia Malmstrom visit The White House to discuss trade and specifically auto tariffs with President Trump.
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Yesterday I updated the returns across stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, foreign markets and U.S. sectors. What was a surprise is that for July only China was lower in the major foreign markets.
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The dollar continue to move higher and is causing most commodities to fall in price. We initiated a put trade yesterday around this theme in Gold & Energy Options Trader yesterday to capitalize on this theme.
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Federal Reserve Chairman Powell moves on to the House in his second day of Humphrey Hawkins testimony.
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Tuesday through Friday in Superstock Investor we produce a morning note of what is happening. We know this is the best primer for the day that you can find and now we are sharing it with our eZine readers.
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This is the inaugural issue of the Rebel Yell Morning Market Report. The goal of this report is to give you an edge as we enter the trading day. We hope you enjoy!!
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