Gold and Energy Options Trader -- Updates

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#287: Thu 2/23/2023 4:05 PM EST
2022 Recap: A Winning Year But Selective Trades

We called 2022, "The Year of Trading Dangerously". As such, we only recommended what we considered to be sure things. We finished the year up 135.05%% with 7 winners and 1 loser. So we averaged 16.88% return per trade.

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#286: Tue 7/12/2022 5:39 PM EDT
Update Through Q2

We call this year, "The Year of Trading Dangerously". As such, we have only recommended what we consider to be sure things. We are up 63.17% for the year with 4 winners and 1 loser.

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#285: Tue 4/5/2022 1:16 PM EDT
First Quarter Summary Of Commodities & Related Stock ETFs

As we move into the second quarter, we thought it made sense to do a quick look at how Commodities and related ETFs for U.S. Sectors currently look through last Thursday's close.

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#288: Mon 8/24/2020 10:23 PM EDT
The Next Four Months Of 2020

The next four months are going to see lots of action as the following themes should play out in gold, related metals, oil, index equity ETFs, interest rates and broken stocks.

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#287: Wed 3/25/2020 8:35 PM EDT
March Update

Our last update was on February 18th and since then we have closed three trades for gains of 90.65% , 34.52% and 55.52%. For the year, we are up 278.16% for the year.

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#286: Tue 2/18/2020 3:17 PM EST
The Catalyst For A Selloff

Each morning we write a morning note for our sister publications Wall Street Rebel and Superstock Investor. So we are very aware when certain stories begin to gain traction. Coronavirus was one of those.

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#285: Tue 2/4/2020 1:10 PM EST
January Update

January was a good month for our readers. We recommended two trades and combined they made 97.47%.

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#284: Tue 10/29/2019 8:10 PM EDT
The Logic Behind Our Latest Buy on SPY

We entered a call trade last week on SPY that worked out quite well. What were we seeing that gave us the confidence to recommend the trade?

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#283: Sun 9/22/2019 8:46 PM EDT
Why I Closed The GLD Call Trade For a 9.52% Profit.

I really wanted to own gold into the Federal Reserve Meeting and I did for a while as I bought it on Monday and sold it on Tuesday for a profit of 9.52%. Why did I sell? Read on.

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#282: Wed 9/11/2019 10:58 AM EDT
What In The World Is Going On With Treasuries???

In the last three months, we have done three trades on U.S. Treasury Bonds via the iShares 20 Year Bond ETF (TLT) that have produced nice gains. All of these trades have been on the put side. Why?

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#281: Thu 8/29/2019 12:06 AM EDT
A Move That Makes No Sense

There are moves and then there are moves. Sometimes you watch a move and know it is only matter of time before it reverses the move. Such a counter move can occur after a run to the upside or to the downside.

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#280: Wed 4/17/2019 9:25 AM EDT
Gold Struggling While Crude Oil Is Strong

The charts of Gold and Crude Oil are moving in opposite directions. So how are we playing this trend?

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#279: Thu 3/7/2019 1:09 PM EST
The First Two Months Of The Year

We are highlighting how the bond, stock, commodity and currency indexes and ETFs are fairing in 2019.

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#278: Thu 10/18/2018 7:10 PM EDT
Thoughts On Current Market

We have been quiet this week because it is options expiration week and it has been a wild one. Monday was lower. Tuesday was up strong. Wednesday was mild to the downside and today was a puke.

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#277: Wed 9/12/2018 4:05 PM EDT
Quick Update On GLD Trade

We have traded GLD two times in 2018 before this trade and GDX once. They all made nice gains (21.81% 27.64% and 35.08%) so we have been itching to get back into GLD or GDX. We recommended going ...

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#276: Thu 8/9/2018 7:22 PM EDT
Why We Closed Out the USO Put Trade

So why did I lock in gains on the August USO $15 Puts yesterday? There were a couple of good reasons that go to the core of our work. Frist, when we get close to an expiration you have to be nimble. USO finally broke below $14 and a violent move back above would have cut into the gains or even worse caused a loss.

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#275: Mon 5/21/2018 5:54 PM EDT
Quick Update

In our last update, we discussed wanting to get long oil via calls. We did this via USO Calls and made 43.43%. This puts our trades year to date up 130.95% with four winners and no losers.

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#274: Mon 4/16/2018 6:22 PM EDT
Why Oil Can Move Here

There is a ton going on with the energy market. Specifically, there is more going on with crude oil than the current price indicates. Last week I read an article in The Wall Street Journal discussing how ...

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#273: Thu 3/29/2018 4:44 PM EDT
Nice Gains For The Quarter

March was a good month as were February and January We only did one trade in March a buy on GDX via calls. The trade made 24.80%. If you allocate to our four unit approach, we are up 21.88% which beats the returns on the S&P 500 that is down -1.23%. Gold via GLD is now up 1.72% for the year and oil via USO is up 9.08%. We are now up for the year 87.52% on a cumulative basis. The monthly return is 29.17% a month would give us a return of 350.08% without compounding returns. Such a deal.

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#272: Tue 3/20/2018 10:18 PM EDT
Update Through Mid March

February was a good month as well. We only did one trade a sell on GLD via puts. The trade made 35.08%. If you allocate to our four unit approach, we are up 15.68% which beats the returns on the S&P 500 that is up only 1.61%. Gold via GLD is now up 0.53% for the year and oil via USO is up 6.66%.

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#271: Thu 2/1/2018 5:21 PM EST
Good Start To The Year

January was a good month. We only did one trade a sell on GLD via puts. The trade made 27.64%. If you allocate to our four unit approach, we are up 6.91% which beats the returns on the S&P 500.

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#270: Mon 10/2/2017 3:27 PM EDT
Waiting On A New Trade For Gold

Currently, we have no position in Gold via the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD). Why? Since the beginning of 2016, we have had 13 winning GLD trades to 1 losing trade. 9 of these trades were on the call side and 4 were on the put side. The call side has given me more trades.

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#269: Wed 5/3/2017 8:14 PM EDT
Why I Closed Out GLD Puts On Monday & New Trade In USO

Monday I closed out a put position in GLD that was established on April 11th. Why did I close this trade out? Normally, I give myself time to be wrong before I am right, In the case of this trade, I was starting to run out of time. The trade had six weeks to expiration when I recommended it on April 11th. As such on Monday, we were down to a bit less than three weeks. Time decay was about to kick in.

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#268: Fri 3/31/2017 6:37 PM EDT
Maybe We Should Only Trade Gold Via GLD??

The last losing trade in GLD was in November of 2015. Since then, we have put up 9 winners in a row on GLD. Our current trade in GLD is up 17% so far so the streak may hit 10.

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#267: Wed 1/25/2017 11:27 AM EST
The Holy Grail Of Options Trading

One of the biggest problems with making option recommendations is the dreaded "decay factor". When you buy an option, it begins to lose value from the second you own it.

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#266: Wed 11/9/2016 10:56 PM EST
Why We Exited GLD Trade A Day Later

Tuesday we bought puts on gold thinking that Hillary Clinton was going to get elected and the U.S. Dollar would rise. This action in turn would cause the dollar to rise and gold to fall in value.

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#265: Mon 5/2/2016 5:54 PM EDT
Our Secret: The Best Trade Happens Almost Instantly

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#264: Tue 1/5/2016 3:14 PM EST
Trades For 2016

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#263: Wed 12/16/2015 10:05 AM EST
Quick USO Comment

Last Monday we got long calls in USO and wanted to give a quick update. ~more~

#262: Sun 12/6/2015 10:20 PM EST
Quick Comments Post OPEC Meeting & Friday's Action

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#261: Thu 12/3/2015 10:10 PM EST
Current Thought On Gold & OPEC Meeting

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#260: Tue 11/10/2015 7:12 AM EST
OPEC Is Not Going Away

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#259: Fri 11/6/2015 3:10 PM EST
Comments on Gold & GLD

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#258: Wed 10/21/2015 4:58 PM EDT
Quick Comments On Gold

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#257: Wed 10/14/2015 1:18 PM EDT
Why We Have Been Quiet With Trades

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#256: Thu 10/8/2015 6:36 AM EDT
Thought on U.S. Steel & The Stock Market

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#255: Wed 9/23/2015 10:18 AM EDT
Quick Comments On U.S. Steel Trade

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#254: Thu 9/10/2015 9:20 AM EDT
Quick Update On USO Trade

Yesterday we put out a trade on USO near the end of the day. Here are some quick thoughts.

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#253: Thu 8/20/2015 2:53 PM EDT
Quick Update on GLD Trade

Our recently closed pair has a slight clarification. See comments.

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#252: Tue 8/18/2015 6:03 PM EDT
Charts Updated

We are updating our thoughts on the charts of the gold, materials and energy markets. Simply we are using the following Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) as opposed to indexes to track these markets: GLD, OIH, XLE, XLB, IYT and DBO to set how we want to be positioned. We like ETFs as they trade and have specific volume attached to them as opposed to an index.

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#251: Sat 8/8/2015 6:45 PM EDT
Current Thoughts

In July, we commented that, "Most energy and commodity markets are stuck in pronounced downtrends. As such, we have a mixed bias to current positions." We have gone from pronounced downtrends to falling off the cliff.

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#250: Fri 7/10/2015 1:01 PM EDT
Current Thinking

Since our last update we have taken nice winners on XLU Calls 32.38%, UNG Calls 43.84%, and Alcoa Calls 32%. Expect to see more trades and winners as we conclude the crisis atmosphere that Greece, China and the Middle East have proposed.

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#249: Wed 6/3/2015 7:27 AM EDT
New From OPEC Meeting

This morning the initial news out of the OPEC Meeting in Vienna is that OPEC will ...

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#248: Thu 4/16/2015 6:12 PM EDT
Update

Unfortunately, we were not able to roll options on the April SPDR Energy Select Sector Fund (XLE) Call and they will expire worthless. A roll can only happen when there is value in the option and the SPDR Energy Select Sector Fund did not. There was nothing to roll.

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#247: Thu 4/2/2015 11:17 AM EDT
Current Thoughts

We are now into April and we have two open positions and have closed out six positions. The six closed positions have seen four winners and two losers. The last loser was an expiration of our March GLD $119 Call. So for the year these six trades have returned a cumulative 13.13% or on our four unit process 3.28%. I am not happy about those results and know we can and will do better.

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#246: Mon 3/2/2015 10:03 AM EST
Update

This morning we enter March trading and we expect it to be a busy month. Last month was a strong month for stocks if you were invested on four days - 2/2, 2/3, 2/5 and 2/10. The S&P 500 was up 5.49% and those four days returned 4.84%. For the month, we entered three postion and have not exited any of them. Our newest position was recommended on Friday.

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#245: Tue 2/10/2015 3:32 PM EST
Update

One of the big January stories of 2015 is the rally in gold and silver. The rally began like clockwork on the first day of trading in 2015 and had not looked back until Thursday, January 22nd. Now the gains have consolidated. What goes up must come down.

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#244: Wed 1/28/2015 4:03 PM EST
Latest Update

One of the big stories of 2015 is the rally in gold and silver. The rally began like clockwork on the first day of trading in 2015 and had not looked back until last Thursday, January 22nd. Some of you have written me complaining that I was not trading GLD or gold stocks like Barrick Gold (ABX). The fact is I needed to see how this January move played out before I got involved. We are now involved via silver instead of gold.

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#243: Wed 1/14/2015 3:36 PM EST
Quick Thoughts

This is our first update for 2015. We have kicked off the year in good fashion as today we took a nice gainer on UNG Calls, a 47% gainer. The great thing about this trade is that UNG continued higher today and now the call is even higher. Hopefully, some of you got out later in the day and if you did, then you have a gain greater than 60%.

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#242: Wed 12/31/2014 1:26 PM EST
Year End Update

For 2014, there were 26 winner to 5 losers. There will be a sixth loser in January with the likely expiration of our USO Calls. For the year, our cumulative returns were 309.66% or 9.99% per trade on closed trades. Using our four unit approach, this would give you a return of 77.41%. If you add in the USO loss, then we would drop to 209.62% from 309.66% with the four unit approach returning 52.41%.We aim for 100% a year so we have some ground to make up next year and we will.

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#241: Mon 12/8/2014 4:09 PM EST
Current Thinking

Since our last update, things remain interesting to say the least in our universe of stocks we trade in Gold & Energy Options Trader. Today we exited out of our January Schlumberger (SLB) $85 put for a nice gain of 13.43%. This trade was put on last Wednesday, December 3. Schlumberger was trading at $86.37 when the trade was put on. The stock ran to a high on both Thursday and Friday of $88.16. Funny that Thursday's level was not exceeded on Friday. This gave us some conviction to stick with the trade.

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#240: Mon 12/8/2014 9:25 AM EST
Daily & Weekly Charts Updated

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#239: Fri 11/7/2014 6:10 PM EST
Weekly Thought

Since our last update a week ago, things have gotten very interesting in our universe of stocks we trade in Gold & Energy Options Trader. Today we rolled our November $97.50 Exxon (XOM) call to a December $100 Exxon Call. This trade was to be done only if you were already in the trade.

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#238: Fri 10/31/2014 4:08 PM EST
Quick Update

Today we feel much better about our call position in Exxon (XOM). Today the company beat estimates of $1.72 with a report of $1.89. Initially before the market opened the stock was trading at $96. Then once the market opened it began to fade. However, it rallied to close at a high for the day.

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#237: Tue 9/30/2014 9:37 PM EDT
Why I Closed UNG Calls On Monday

Tonight I wanted to go a little more in depth on the trade closed out yesterday on UNG. We entered a long UNG October $22 Call recommendation on September 17th. It was entered on a Wednesday afternoon which is a very aggressive trade as it was almost immediate reward or failure for the next day. Why?

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#236: Fri 9/26/2014 10:37 AM EDT
Quick Thoughts

We thought we would write a quick update given the volatility in the market the last threee days. A bigger update will be out over the weekend. First of all, the recent volatility typically occurs near a low not a peak when you are in a bull market. Make no mistake we are still in a ...

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#235: Thu 9/18/2014 4:54 AM EDT
Update

So far this month we have been doing a great deal of what we refer to as "hit and run" trading. Why? The market has been volatile during the trading day, i.e. wide ranges, but if you look day to day it is not very volatile. In fact, the S&P 500 closed on August 29th at 2003.35 and today closed at 2011.36.

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#234: Fri 8/29/2014 2:43 PM EDT
Update

There is now a clear and present danger for all investors. What is it? Read on...

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#233: Thu 7/31/2014 1:48 PM EDT
Quick Update

We have been light with our positions of late not because we thought that a day like today was in the offing but because the charts have been problematic. Earlier today, we shot out our chart update. It was pretty obvious to see that stocks were struggling both on a weekly but more so on a daily basis.

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#232: Thu 7/31/2014 7:55 AM EDT
Charts Updated

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#231: Thu 7/17/2014 4:11 PM EDT
Update

Were are 100% in cash at this point in time. Since our last update, we locked in gains of 13.59% and 30.70% on USO Puts and GLD Calls. Sometimes the return of cash is more important than the return on the cash, thank you Will Rogers for that logic.

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#230: Mon 6/23/2014 12:24 PM EDT
Update On Thinking On Gold

Last week gold climbed back above $1300. The ETF we use to track gold which is the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) broke out to a two month high but not a new high for the year. We got a couple emails asking if we had blown the move in gold. Our answer is no and we thought we would offer some explanations on why we think this is the case.

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#229: Tue 6/17/2014 4:16 PM EDT
Update On Latest Alert

A quick correction. In the latest trade, I wrote that we will "recommend puts". That was correct. Then I accidently wrote the word call twice instead of put. That was wrong. The symbol reflected a put.

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#228: Thu 6/5/2014 1:04 PM EDT
Update

With our last trade exited on May 27th we have had no positions. Simply we wanted to see how the market responded to the European Central Bank (ECB) announcement and tomorrow's monthly jobs number. So far it appears we want to be back on the call side. Here are a couple quick comments we penned for Uncommon Wisdom Daily on the ECB event and the outcome (bolded).

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#227: Tue 5/27/2014 5:58 PM EDT
Update

Currently, we have no positions on thanks to taking a nice profit of 46.10% on the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) put that we recommended last Monday. Most of you should have taken at least this much of a gain because it continued lower after our recommendation to close the trade opened last Monday. We had been looking at GLD to break $124 and finally after a week we hit paydirt. From here it is going to be interesting to see how, GLD and gold trade. It seemed with today's break the easy money was in and in made sense to grab our profits.

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#226: Fri 5/16/2014 11:37 AM EDT
Update

Next week we expect to start an active period of trading as our models are telling us the some big moves are on the horizon. Currently, we only have one position and have been hitting singles since the end of March with winners of 13%, 17% and 18%. At this point in the year, my goal was to have 16 completed trades as so far we are at 14. So were a close to our goal. For the year we have 11 winners and now 3 losers. Our GLD Put trade which we have rolled from February to March to May will expire. We took a little bit of money out but it still expired down -99.23%. For the year we are still up 112.57% and expect to be a lot higher by mid year, July.

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#225: Mon 4/28/2014 7:00 PM EDT
Charts Updated

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#224: Wed 4/16/2014 2:31 PM EDT
Current Thinking: Gold Is In Trouble

We have been pretty quiet since our update at the top of the month. We closed out a call trade in the Silver Trust (SLV) for a 13% gain. We considered this trade to be about the return of our capital rather than the return on our capital. SLV should have busted out above $20 on the move by GLD back to $127.50. It did not. That gave us the confidence that SLV was not going to work and we closed out the trade.

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#223: Tue 4/1/2014 2:40 PM EDT
Quarterly Update

One of our goals for 2014 is to stay on top of recommendations and tracking our results is probably the best way to do this. So how did we do for the first quarter of the year? We completed 11 recommendations. If we keep this pace, then we should be able to complete 44 recommendations. Last year we completed 37 recommendations. On these 11 ideas, there were 9 winners to 2 losers. The net return on these trades was 180.86%.

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#222: Mon 3/10/2014 3:18 PM EDT
Update On Current Thinking

Last Monday we noted that we are no smarter than the news headlines coming out regarding Ukraine. There were four possible outcomes that we laid out last week. So a week later where are we in the crisis? These were the scenarios we laid out a week ago.

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#221: Mon 3/3/2014 11:41 AM EST
Update With Ukraine Action

We are no smarter than the news headlines coming out regarding Ukraine. There are four possible outcomes. We do not know the outcome but assess a probability to each.

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#220: Mon 3/3/2014 8:24 AM EST
Charts Updated

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#219: Wed 2/19/2014 8:36 PM EST
Comments On Today's Trading

Today was a wild day for stocks. The day began with a gap open lower. Almost immediately the market traded to the daily high by 10:30 a.m. EST.Then it pulled back until just before 12:00 p.m. EST when it collapsed on an IMF report stating that emerging markets are still an issue and the copy of Federal Reserve Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart's lunch time speech emerged where he basically stated that the taper is on track "come hell or high water", rather stupid thinking in my and James' opinion. Next up we had the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) notes due at 2:00 p.m. EST. The real collapse began from 3:00 to 4:00 p.m. EST. The reason for this color is that two stocks we have calls in did really well despite this action, Anadarko Petroleum (APC) and Halliburton (HAL). We also bought puts on GLD. Markets were moving fast and as such we are adjusting a couple of our exit and entry points to reflect the fast action.

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#218: Thu 1/30/2014 2:40 PM EST
Current Thoughts

There is a reason we have been quiet with our trading the past two weeks. There has been a great deal of back and forth both in the overall equity market (S&P 500) and the gold/energy market. First, the S&P 500 has had three down -1% moves this month. -1% moves tend to be one off events or they cluster, meaning we get more than one.

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#217: Mon 1/27/2014 10:16 AM EST
Chartbook Updated

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#216: Sat 1/11/2014 3:17 PM EST
Weekly Update

I have a couple New Year's Resolutions as it relates to this service. The first is to write a weekly update as much as possible. Second to be more active in 2014. So far I am doing well on both counts. Since out last update we still have the same two positions that we held at our last update. However, we have entered and exited several trades as well as entering several more.

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#215: Mon 1/6/2014 10:23 AM EST
Charts Updated

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#214: Tue 12/17/2013 1:44 PM EST
Update

Once we get through the FOMC Announcement tomorrow then we will be trading in a more active fashion. We expect a small taper but the Federal Reserve may sit on its hands until sometime in Q1. We want to have lots of ammo and with three open units to trade we are itching to put on some new positions but know it is foolish to trade when we do not know the outcome.

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#213: Tue 12/10/2013 10:42 AM EST
Update

This past week we traded in and out of United Airlines puts. The trade worked well and we locked in a gain of 12.18%. Several readers reported back that they made a bit more and were happy with the trade and asked for more trades. We scour our screens each day for names to own. Yesterday we added calls in ...

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#212: Wed 12/4/2013 9:19 PM EST
Current Thinking

Currently, we are down to one position. Calls in USO. Yesterday we rolled our December Call to a January Call. For tracking purposes, this is still the same trade we put on in late October. We just needed some more time for the move we were anticipating to play itself out. Monday we locked in our gain on the December GLD $120 Put trade.The gain was $0.34 or 13.07%. However, the stock moved to a low of $117.50. We closed the trade when GLD was at $118.34. So many of you might have made more than our reported 13%.

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#211: Mon 11/25/2013 9:52 AM EST
Charts Updated On Major ETFS In Our Universe

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#210: Wed 11/20/2013 11:48 AM EST
Several New Ideas On The Horizon

Today all comes down to 2:00 p.m. EST when the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) releases its latest minutes for the last meeting. The markets and the computers will focus on the language of "to taper or not to taper". The gold market and GLD are telling us that "the taper" is coming quicker than many may think. We locked in gains on GLD puts on November 8th and have been watching for a new signal to emerge. There has been a slight downward bias BUT if the taper talk is light then ...

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#209: Mon 11/18/2013 4:33 PM EST
Caterpillar Sale Today

When I trade, I love to top tick a trade. However, when I am doing trades in the service I do not like to top tick a trade and that rarely happens. However, today it did. We were watching the positive action in Caterpillar (CAT) today as over the weekend Barron's wrote it up as an undervalued stock. When it took off after 2:00 we decided to lock in the gain. We thought it would consolidate once it reached $85.

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#208: Thu 11/14/2013 3:30 PM EST
Update on Positions, Current Thinking and Reader Questions

Today we thought it made sense to do a quick update on exisiting positions, current thinking and a couple questions. Last Friday we closed out our GLD Put position for a nice gain of 36.23%, The trade was closed at 9:40 a.m. EDT. The price range for that day was $124.46 to $123.62. We closed it out with a price of $124.27 so many of you might have made some more money on this trade than our reported 36.23%.

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#207: Tue 11/12/2013 12:40 PM EST
Research Piece: Consideration On XLE

From time to time, we will be publishing in addition to our update a research piece. This piece was written last weekend and shows how we blend the fundamentals with the technicals.

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#206: Wed 11/6/2013 12:36 PM EST
Update On Thoughts/Positions

This morning we thought it made sense to do a quick update on exisiting positions and current thinking. Last Thursday we closed out our UNG Put position for a small gain. The trade was closed at 2:00 p.m. EDT. The trade made some money and UNG has continued lower. Are we upset by this? No. Why? Because at every point in a trade we need to consider whether to "fish and cut bait". Our goal is to try and return invested capital and profits.

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#205: Mon 10/28/2013 7:22 PM EDT
Update on On Thinking

This is our first update since last Monday. A week ago we locked in a gain on our SLV call trade and remain with put trades on UNG and DIA. This leaves room for three more trades. We intend to trade on Wednesday afternoon or Thursday as we have several ideas but want to do those trades on the back side of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcement on Wednesday at 2:00 p.m. EDT. This week we will continue to get caught up on three weeks of economic data that has been supressed due to the shutdown. First up Tuesday will be

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#204: Mon 10/21/2013 11:27 PM EDT
Quick Update On Thinking

Make sure to read our updates as we give our thoughts on current positions. Over the weekend and early this week, we have gotten a fair number of questions on positions. 95% of the questions could be answered by reading our last update on Friday. So make sure to read this tonight's thoughts.

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#203: Fri 10/18/2013 1:38 PM EDT
Thoughts Going Into The Weekend (Updated With Second Chart)

This has been a historic week in that the U.S. avoided a default on its debt and reopened the government, for now. There was really nothing accomplished other than kicking the can down the road to January and Feburary. Unfortunately, we could be repeating this whole crisis in another few months.

In the meantime, the shutdown and loss of confidence is going to take about 0.50% out of the GDP in the fourth quarter. Next week we will begin to get caught up on three weeks of economic data that has been supressed due to the shutdown. First up on Tuesday will be the Jobs Numbers that were due out on October 4th.

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#202: Fri 10/18/2013 9:16 AM EDT
Charts Updated

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#201: Tue 10/15/2013 1:21 PM EDT
Houston We Have A Problem

This afternoon markets are focused on Washington reaching a deal. For a deal to occur, the Senate needs to pass a Continuing Resolution (C.R.) and then extend the debt ceiling. Then the Senate will send the legislation to the House and have them approve it and then they will sending the legislation to the President for his signature. This process is where it get tricky.

The Senate is controlled by the Democrats. The House is controlled by the Republicans. A likely outcome from the Senate will a C.R. and extension of the debt ceiling that gains 70-80 votes. With bipartisan support, the House will feel the pressure to pass the legislation.

The first sticking point is if the legislation only garners say 55-60 votes then the House will feel brazen. They might change the C.R. and debt ceiling levels ammending it and sending it back to the Senate or they could reject it outright. Now we find the House is working on their own bill.

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#200: Mon 10/14/2013 12:41 PM EDT
Pivotal Week

This is a very pivotal week for the market and for our country if you are citizen of the United States. This week the House, Senate and President need to come together to end the current government shutdown as well as raise the debt ceiling. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew last week gave a deadline of October 17th as the day the government in theory could run out of money. We do not think this is the case. However, if we move to and then beyond this date without resolution of this "crisis of leadership" then markets are not going to react in a positive manner.

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#199: Thu 10/10/2013 2:26 PM EDT
Friday Webinar (Corrected Registration Information)

Tomorrow at 4:15 p.m. EDT we will be holding our latest webinar. The webinar will review process, current thinking and future ideas. We hope you can attend but if you cannot it will be recorded. This is an update to our original email and needs to be updated or you will not be able to join the call.

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#198: Tue 10/8/2013 2:07 PM EDT
Update On UNG Position

We have gotten a couple emails on our latest recommendation of puts in United States Natural Gas (UNG). First we put the trade on last Thursday, October 3rd. Then on Friday we did offer some comments (see Update #196). We went into the weekend with a gain on the trade. We do not make a comment every day on exisitng positions. When it makes sense we will or if we see several comments asking for our thoughts.

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#197: Tue 10/8/2013 11:30 AM EDT
Where Can The Stock Market Go With Washington Chaos?

Clearly, the market has run out of steam since the 18th of September. The longest winning streak on the S&P 500 is one day. In fact, there have been only three up days since September 18th. Today will not be a fourth the way it is looking right now. The S&P 500 peaked at 1725.52 on September 18th. We closed today at 1676.12 last night. So we have dropped 49.40 points or 2.86%. This is not much given the serious nature of a government shutdown and potential default on the debt of the United States.

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#196: Fri 10/4/2013 2:22 PM EDT
Quick Comments

A week ago we held our first webinar.We now have the replay for your review. Even if you were on the call, it might be a good thing to review. If you were not on the call, then it is a must listen to as it went a decent amount of time with lots of questions.

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#195: Tue 10/1/2013 12:41 AM EDT
An Amazing Evening As History Is Made

Tonight I wanted to stay up to see history. For the first time since 1995, the government has been shut down. As a political science major, I have always believed that politics have a much greater influence on the movement of the markets than the talking heads give it credit for moving markets. This is why last Friday we put on a negative bet on the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Monday we did not like the fact that the Dow did not break its five minute range after a gap down open. So we locked in a gain of 38.30%. Then we locked in another gain on the United States Oil Units (USO) puts for 20.48% because USO could not stay below $36.50, after dropping to $36.40. As we noted in commentary on Wednesday that we thought USO would drop to $36.50 and then we would "evaluate the position". That is what we did on Monday.

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#194: Thu 9/26/2013 5:01 PM EDT
Remember To Register For The Friday Webinar

Please join me on Friday, Sept. 27, for a members-only, LIVE online Q-and-A event. We’ll explore the why options, how to trade options, our process. money management techniques for our process along with a n overview of investing themes driving the markets, outline our profit strategy for the short and longer term, and I’ll answer your questions LIVE!

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#193: Thu 9/26/2013 10:57 AM EDT
Trading Options & Upcomiong Webinar Tomorrow (Friday) After The Close

Most people invest through buying stocks and bonds. A far-smaller percentage of investors buy and sell options ... even though it's the best way I know to make a smaller account trade like a much-bigger one ... and much faster! Why do people let option trades pass them by, one after another, while instead holding on to stocks that snooze and bond yields that "someday, maybe" might budge? I really believe it is because most people view options as "too" something to trade. Whether options seem too sophisticated ... too fast-moving ... too much effort to get the right account to trade them ... it's easy to slide back into what's familiar, even if it means giving up what could very well become extraordinary returns. So today I want to show you how easy it is for investors to make speculative gains with options. It is our job to take the "complicated" out of options trading.

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#192: Wed 9/25/2013 12:45 PM EDT
Quick Update On New Position

We have had a couple questions on our new position established yesterday so we thought we would weigh in with comments this morning.

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#191: Mon 9/23/2013 9:07 AM EDT
Looking For The "Fat Pitch"

Here we are at the start of the week. This morning we shot out our Daily Comments for your review. The Daily Comments on Monday review the week ahead and what can influence stock prices. From this review, we conclude there are too many Federal Reserve speakers this week. They will make the market volatile. Why? Because they are all going to weigh in on the latest "no taper". They will either defend or attack the policy. The market ripped last Wednesday on the no taper news and by Friday the market had given up its gains. So the $64,000 question is, "Was the pullback just a test of the Wednesday gap open or the beginning of a new trend?"

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#190: Thu 9/19/2013 8:54 AM EDT
Weekly Charts Updated

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#189: Wed 9/18/2013 7:43 AM EDT
Quick Update

There is no Daily Comments this morning due to travel. Options activity was VERY light so not worth the update. This is due to the fact the Federal Reserve is going to come down from the mountain at 2:00 p.m. EDT and then at 2:30 EDT Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke will speak. The market seems to believe some form of the taper will begin. However, the recent (last two months) economic data is mixed and not conclusive that a taper should begin now. Even though logic is that the taper begins, our gut says it may not now and rather the Federal Reserve begins to taper in December. If they do taper, expect it to be EXTREMELY light. We will weigh in with comments over the night.

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#188: Tue 9/17/2013 6:43 AM EDT
How To Navigate Our Website

As a reader of our website we wanted to point out how best to navigate the site each day. First each day we put out Daily Comments on the market. These help us shape our ideas. More than just reviewing our universe, they should help you the reader navigate the day to day movements of the market. Effectively this is a game plan of what is going to move markets. It is delivered to your in box each day by 8:15 a.m., most days earlier. Second each day we review the options activity from the prior day. We sorted on current volume leaders and review put versus call activity for outliers.

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#187: Mon 9/16/2013 11:21 AM EDT
To Trade Or Not To Trade Today, That Is The Question

This morning we have a crazy start to the week thanks to the following items: 1.U.S. and Russia over the weekend have a plan on how to disarm Syria of weapons. The plan is tentative but is hitting oil prices. 2.Sunday afternoon Larry Summers removed his name from Federal Reserve Chairman consideration. Gold prices are firming up as easy money will continue and the dollar will weaken.

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#186: Fri 9/13/2013 7:11 AM EDT
Options Are Not Complicated

It is a myth that options are complicated. They are not. Just like stocks they trade every day. Just like stocks they trade with a specific price attached to them. Just like stocks there is a bid and offer to options. The difference is that options have a finite life. Whereas stock trade until they are acquired by another entity or they go out of business. Therefore, to trade options successfully you need to have a systematic process. Ours is simple. Buy low, sell high. Catch trends and ride them.

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#185: Thu 9/12/2013 2:37 PM EDT
Quick Update

This past week we closed out a trade on EWZ calls for a 20% gain on Monday and established a new position in USO puts on Monday. This postion was then closed on Tuesday for a really nice one day gain of 24%. We have been quiet with new trade recommendation on Wednesday and today. My goal is not to just put trades on to trade. Rather we continue to seek out the "fat pitch" trades. One of rules is not to trade on Friday. Why? Simply the options lose premium over the weekend. The only way we would be trading on a Friday is if we were trading intraday which is unlikely for this service.

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#184: Thu 9/12/2013 7:56 AM EDT
Weekly Charts

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#183: Mon 9/9/2013 7:58 AM EDT
The Week Ahead & Current Postions

As we head into this week, we are long three positions. Our goal is to have up to five positions on at one time. There is one position with a September expiration and two that have October expirations. Last week we booked 17% gain in calls on Potash. The week before we took 51% gain on USO calls and 29% on CLF calls.

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#182: Fri 9/6/2013 3:19 PM EDT
Quick Correction

On our new trade in EWZ there is difference between the trade and trade instructions. The trade information says to buy the October $45 Call.

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#181: Tue 8/27/2013 6:50 PM EDT
Weekly Charts Updated

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#180: Wed 8/21/2013 8:20 AM EDT
Futures Lower

US futures: (S&P -2.25, Dow Jones -20, NDX -4.75 with fair value a bit lower adding to the open. Asia mixed and Europe lower. Copper lower and gold lower with WTI Crude lower and Brent Oil Futures lower. $ is higher vs Euro, lower vs. Pound and higher vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury Yield +1. Prices as of 7:55 a.m. EST.

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#179: Fri 8/16/2013 3:47 PM EDT
Quick Update

Energy stocks continue to lag and are trading at a deep discount to price targets in our scorecards. Meanwhile gold. precious metal stocks and material stocks are starting to come back to life. For the first time in a while, we have two option positions that will expire on us. First, we bought calls on Occidental Petroleum (OXY) on May 29th. We bought July $92.50 calls and then rolled in August calls. Unfortunately, the price of Occidental is below the strike price of the August call. We look to reenter Occidental calls when the start starts to see buyer again.

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#178: Thu 7/18/2013
Daily and Weekly Macro Charts

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#177: Tue 7/16/2013
Quick Update

As we enter earnings season, we intend to start getting more active for the summer session. Our big theme is that gold has yet to bottom. All that we have seen since the low at the end of June is a dead cat bounce. If this theory is correct, then we should begin to see gold retest and fail at its June lows in the next couple of weeks. Meanwhile oil is in a parabolic upswing and we are looking for the first little bit of weakness to establish a ...

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#176: Thu 6/20/2013
Quick Update

Today we rolled our June $127 Puts in GLD to July $119 Puts. This is a repair trade from May where our value decreased to $336 in value against an initial value of $2050. Our value was $693 before we sold the June Puts and bought July Puts. The July $119 Puts closed with a value of $2.27 up from $2.24. There is also a cash position now of $20 so our value is now $701.

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#175: Mon 6/10/2013
Webinar At 4:15 EDT Today

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#174: Thu 5/30/2013
Calls On Occidental Petroleum Have The Price Adjusted

Yesterday we bought calls on Occidental Petroleum (OXY). Our printed price was $3.60 but we are adjusting to $3.70 as we always watch the prints of our ideas. The stock and call moved higher as our trade recommendation came out. The call is now worth $4.20 and we hope you are along for the ride.

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#173: Wed 5/22/2013
Quick Note on Exxon Put Trade

We are adjusting our exit price to $3.20 as that is where it has been trading on the June $95 Put. Fast markets sometimes call for an adjustment. It is now a winner for $0.76 or 31.14% as opposed to 43%.

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#172: Fri 5/17/2013
Quick Update

I have been out of the office most of the week first for a quick trip to Philadelphia and since then I have been in Maryland helping my parents out as my Dad had knee replacement surgery. He is doing well. Gold is not. We love this. Last week we rolled out May GLD puts to June and they have had a nice move higher but are still in the red since we put the trade on in April.

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#171: Thu 4/18/2013
Webinar Tomorrow

Last August we began to work with Market Authority who is also distributing our newsletter in addition to us. Webinars occur twice a month and you are now invited to join tomorrow's webinar at 4:15 p.m. EDT.

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#170: Tue 4/16/2013
Update On Recent Trades & Open Position in XLE

Since our last update Thursday, April 11th much has happened. We had puts in GLD that we rode to a nice 63% profit. Then yesterday we closed our put position in XOM for a small gain 0f 3.27%. This was key because last week we did repair trades on XOM and XLE.

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#169: Thu 4/11/2013
Update On Positions

Since our last update Thursday a week ago, the S&P 500 had an awful start to last Friday as the S&P 500 was down some twenty points. Since that low on Friday moring, there has been a rather impressive rally in equities that is now overbought. We remain with puts on XLE and XOM. There is now a position in GLD that we established yesterday. We bought puts on GLD again. GLD was a winning put trade last week and even though it was higher by 0.20% today it sold off from its 10:00 a.m. high. We are looking for a break of $150 sooner than later on GLD.

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#168: Tue 4/9/2013
Daily & Weekly Charts Updated

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#167: Thu 4/4/2013
Overnight Update

Thursday saw SPY trade seven trends. Almost a trend an hour. By the end of the day, SPY had another day that was the opposite of the previous day. It is now 12 days in a row which is rather unprecedented. In the comments there is an internal indicator we track that shows this range along with breadth. We remain with puts on XLE and XOM. Both stocks are lower Thursday and our puts have risen in value.

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#166: Wed 4/3/2013
Current Thinking & Positions

Going forward, we are going to weigh in a couple times a week on current positions and our thought process. Tuesday we put on a bearish bet on GLD that we were able to lock in for a nice gain yesterday. The trade was closed out when GLD was trading at $151.57. It moved down another dollar. Everyone should have gotten a good execution on their trade. Remember a goal of mine is to get you out of a trade in an orderly manner.

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#165: Fri 3/8/2013
Daily & Weekly Charts Updated

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#164: Wed 3/6/2013
Daily P/Laybook Futures Higher

US futures: (S&P +5.25, Dow Jones +44, NDX +4.80 with fair value a bit lower) Asia and Europe higher. Copper lower and gold higher with WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures lower. $ is higher vs Euro, higher vs. Pound and higher vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury Yield +.0172. Prices as of 7:45 a.m. EST.

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#163: Wed 2/20/2013
Daily P/Laybook

US futures: (S&P -1.00, Dow Jones -3, NDX -3.50 with fair value slighlty higher) Asia higher and Europe mixed. Copper and gold lower with WTI Crude higher and Brent Oil Futures lower. $ is higher vs Euro, higher vs. Pound and higher vs. Yen. US ten-year Treasury Yield +.007. Prices as of 7:45 a.m. EST.

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#162: Fri 2/15/2013
February Expirtion And March Recommendations

We will have one trade recommendation that will expire on us today. We bought the Schlumberger (SLB) February $72.50 Put and it will expire today worthless. When we have a trade that goes against us we like to ask, "So what did we do wrong with this trade?" The trade was put on January 17th as we bought the February $72.50 put and the next day it closed at $76.50 and then $78 on the 19th. The company beat estimates sending the stock higher. We were betting on an earnings miss as this had been the trend over several past quarters. We felt the put would come back from the gap up and we would be able to take a smaller loss. This did not happen and we just wrong. That happens. The big question is how often?

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#161: Wed 2/13/2013
Charts Updated

Daily charts are starting to look tired. Weekly charts remain in great shape except for gold via GLD. Gold continues to struggle on a daily and weekly basis.

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#160: Mon 2/4/2013
Interesting Interview Last Friday On CNBC

Last Friday there was an interesting interview with Eric Sprott of Sprott Asset Management in Canada. Sprott makes the case for both gold and silver. The interview starts at 4:14 in the video. Note we are long both calls in GLD and SLV.

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#159: Fri 2/1/2013
Quick Update On Suncor (SU)

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#158: Mon 1/28/2013
Charts Updated

We are updating our thoughts on the the gold and energy markets. Simply we are using the following Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) as opposed to indexes to track these markets: GLD, OIH, XLE, XLB, IYT and DBO to set how we want to be positioned. We like ETFs as they trade and have specific volume attached to them as opposed to an index. The daily charts go back to July and weekly charts to 2010. Comments lay out our current thinking. This is our latest update. Daily and Weekly charts remain in great shape except for gold via GLD. Gold appears to be struggling daily but bottoming on a weekly basis.

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#157: Wed 1/23/2013
Economic Data Points Reviewed

We pay attention to key economic reports because it provides a gauge of how strong or weak the economy is to date. So far growth seems to be moderate. Remember growth dictates the price of energy. This is an addition to our work for 2013. We will update two times a month. Yesterday Existing Home Sales were out ant fell 1.0% BUT this number remains at its highest level since November 2009. Growth remain slow but persistent here. Last week Housing Starts rose 12.1% to 954,000 units ahead of the estimate of 890,000.

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#156: Fri 1/4/2013
What Is Up With The Trade In Norfolk Southern?

Sometimes the best ideas come from unusual places. I have found over time that my best ideas come from insights that are very obvious to me but not yet to others. Over Christmas, I drove with my family to Texas to see my wife's family. On the way from Wisconsin to Texas I noticed that ALL the major rivers were creeks. This includes the Arkansas, Missouri, Oklahoma and Rio Grande. The Mississippi is not a creek but it is a shadow of its former self. Then on Wednesday night there was a story on the NBC Nightly News about ...

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#155: Thu 1/3/2013
Macro Charts Updated

We are updating our thoughts on the the gold and energy markets. Simply we are using the following Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) as opposed to indexes to track these markets: GLD, OIH, XLE, XLB, IYT and DBO to set how we want to be positioned. We like ETFs as they trade and have specific volume attached to them as opposed to an index. The daily charts go back to June and weekly charts to 2010. Comments lay out our current thinking. This is our latest update. Daily charts have all improved. Gold appears to have bottomed and we are long a March $175 call.

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#154: Thu 12/20/2012
Winding It Down For The Holidays

As 2012, comes to a close we would like to wish all of our readers a prosperous 2013. Hopefully, you have a little more jingle in your pocket if you followed our recommendations. We are excited about 2013 because maybe we can put the Fiscal Cliff/Debt Ceiling, European Woes and Asian Slowdown behind us and begin to move forward. Starting tomorrow, we will be on hiatus until January 2nd. Therefore, there will be no Daily Comments or Options Update. We cannot see a reason to be trading with such rapid decay the next six trading sessions.

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#153: Mon 12/17/2012
Daily And Weekly Charts Updated

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#152: Wed 12/12/2012
Violent Changes Taking Place In Oil Markets Says IEA

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has noted that new data highlights the changes taking place in the demand for energy. There is ...

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#151: Tue 12/11/2012
Chart Book Updated

The daily charts go back to June and weekly charts to 2010. Comments lay out our current thinking. This is our latest update. Daily charts have improved except for DBO that looks like death.

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#150: Tue 12/4/2012
Chart Book Updated

The daily charts go back to June and weekly charts to 2010. Comments lay out our current thinking. This is our latest update. Daily charts are potentially putting in tops with the exception of GLD which is now oversold. The weekly charts are coming out off oversold conditions. Gold is almost oversold and we are long a December GLD Call.

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#149: Wed 11/21/2012
Quick Comments

Monday saw the markets gain traction from Friday's afternoon rally to put in the best day since September. Does this mean we are out of the woods and now we can rally into year end and beyond? We do not know the answer to this question but we can be sure of one thing. Volatility is going to be with investors despite the brief respite we have gotten yesterday and today. Why? First the horse trading that is going to be needed to get a Fiscal Cliff deal is going to take time. Mid December at the earliest.

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#148: Mon 11/19/2012
Charts Updated

We are updating our thoughts on the the gold and energy markets. Simply we are using the following Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) as opposed to indexes to track these markets: GLD, OIH, XLE, XLB, IYT and DBO to set how we want to be positioned. We like ETFs as they trade and have specific volume attached to them as opposed to an index. Daily charts are coming off oversold conditions while GLD reasserted itself to the upside. The weekly charts also are coming out off oversold conditions. Gold looks the best and we are long a December GLD Call.

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#147: Mon 10/22/2012
Charts Updated

We are updating our thoughts on the the gold and energy markets. Simply we are using the following Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) as opposed to indexes to track these markets: GLD, OIH, XLE, XLB, IYT and DBO to set how we want to be positioned. We like ETFs as they trade and have specific volume attached to them as opposed to an index. The daily charts go back to early 2012 and weekly charts to 2009. Comments lay out our current thinking. This is our latest update. No daily charts look good as buys. We prefer longs to shorts so will wait for a meaningful low.

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#146: Tue 10/9/2012
Thoughts As We Approach Earnings Season

There is only one reason I ever turn on CNBC to understand what the media is pontificating about. This week has been all about trashing earnings season. According to CNBC, earnings are going to be dismal and the world will end. Therefore, expectations are very low. Anything better and stocks could break above 1500 on the S&P 500. I do not buy into this logic of awful earnings for one minute. Why? The number of preannouncements it rather spartan. First up will be Alcoa (AA) in a few minutes after the close. Last quarter we bought calls in front of the announcement and closed the trade a month later for a 3% loss. So we have some experience on this name.

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#145: Tue 10/2/2012
Charts Updated

We are updating our thoughts on the the gold and energy markets. Simply we are using the following Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) as opposed to indexes to track these markets: GLD, OIH, XLE, XLB, IYT and DBO to set how we want to be positioned. We like ETFs as they trade and have specific volume attached to them as opposed to an index. The daily charts go back to early 2012 and weekly charts to 2009. Comments lay out our current thinking. This is our latest update. The only daily chart that looks good is GLD. OIH, XLB and IYT and VERY OVERSOLD and should bottom for a several day bounce.

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#144: Tue 9/25/2012
Charts Updated

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#143: Wed 9/12/2012
Charts Updated

The daily charts go back to early 2012 and weekly charts to 2009. Comments lay out our current thinking. This is our latest update. All ETFs are in great shape on a daily and weekly basis with the exception of IYT.

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#142: Wed 9/5/2012
Charts Update

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#141: Tue 9/4/2012
Thoughts For The Upcoming Week

Last week we were in wait and see mode to how markets reacted to Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke's comments on Friday from Jackson Hole, Wyoming where he was speaking at the Kansas City Federal Reserve's Annual Symposium. The equity markets move higher on light volume and today are giving up gains from Friday. So far a stalemate. Gold had a big day on Friday. The question for this week is whether there is more upside or gold will consolidate at the current levels? Tonight we will update our chart review, post the close.

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#140: Mon 8/27/2012
Game Plan For This Week

We closed our last trade a week ago Tuesday and now are in wait and see mode to how marketst react to Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke's comment on Friday from Jackson Hole, Wyoming where he will be speaking at the Kansas City Federal Reserve's Annual Symposium. More important though may be comments on Saturday from ECB Head Mario Draghi. Materials and energy markets to a large degree are driven by the demands put on them by the economy. Therefore, we will watch this week as consumer confidence, personal income and factory orders are due out in addition to weekly jobless claim numbers along with weekly inventory numbers.

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#139: Mon 8/13/2012
Charts Update

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#138: Mon 7/23/2012
Chartbook Update

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#137: Thu 7/19/2012
Quick Update On Most Recent Trade

Our most recent recommendation will report earnings tomorrow morning. Therefore, this trade becomes eve more timely. We note that Noble Corporation (NE) reported earnings this morning which is a competitor to ...

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#136: Mon 7/2/2012
Update

The real summer trading session will begin next Monday when Alcoa (AA) kicks off earnings season on Monday after the close. Estimates are $.07 versus $0.32. The bad news that is poor earnings growth but a beat of such a low number might see Alcoa ramp higher. For 2012 we have 16 winning trades closed out as winning trades and 5 trades that are losers. For the year, we are up 8.47%. We expect this number to rapidly improve during the next few months as we have been in a zone. We have had nine winning trades in our last ten that stretch back to May.

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#135: Fri 6/15/2012
June Expiration

We have one position that will expire in June. We are long calls in Molycorp (MCP). Unfortunately, the stock has been unable to rally since we put on the trade in December. Year todate we now have 14 winners to 4 losers. Watch for more trades early next week.

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#134: Thu 5/31/2012
Chartbook Update

We are updating our thoughts on the the gold and energy markets. Simply we are using the following Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) as opposed to indexes to track these markets: GLD, OIH, XLE, XLB, IYT and DBO to set how we want to be positioned. We like ETFs as they trade and have specific volume attached to them as opposed to an index. The daily charts go back to October. Comments lay out our current thinking. This is our latest update. The ETF that are rallying are GLD, XLB and IYT . All others are EXTREMELY OVERSOLD on a daily and weekly basis. A dead cat bounce should be imminent.

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#133: Sat 5/19/2012
Updated Chart Review

We are updating our thoughts on the the gold and energy markets. Simply we are using the following Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) as opposed to indexes to track these markets: GLD, OIH, XLE, XLB, IYT and DBO to set how we want to be positioned. We like ETFs as they trade and have specific volume attached to them as opposed to an index. The daily charts go back to October. Comments lay out our current thinking. This is our latest update. The only ETF that is rallying currently is GLD. All others are EXTREMELY OVERSOLD on a daily and weekly basis. A dead cat bounce should be imminent.

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#132: Fri 5/18/2012
Update On Trades Impacted By May Expiration USO and XLE

We opened two trades last week with May expirations. Both were May/June Calendar Call spreads. We weighed in on the May/June Call spread in USO earlier this week and closed our June Call. We decided to leave the May Put exposed as it was unlikely to move above $36. This morning USO is at $34.83. This trade will end up being worth $0.83 so our profit is $0.22 cents as the spread was put on at $0.61. The gain is 36.06%. We sold the May XLE $67 Calls at $1.46 and bought the June $67 Calls at $2.38 The spread was established at $0.92. The May $67 Call will expire worthless and the June $67 Call is worth $0.96. So ...

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#131: Wed 5/2/2012
Weekly Charts Show A Button Hook Formation

We are updating our thoughts on the the gold and energy markets. Simply we are using the following Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) as opposed to indexes to track these markets: GLD, OIH, XLE, XLB, IYT and DBO to set how we want to be positioned. We like ETFs as they trade and have specific volume attached to them as opposed to an index. The daily charts go back to September. Comments lay out our current thinking. This is our latest update. All ETFs are in a button hook formation on a daily basis and it is a negative button hook formation. The button hook formation is like the football route where you go 10 yards and come back several yards to catch the football before moving down the field. Only IYT is confirming on the stochastic.

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#130: Wed 4/25/2012
Charts Updated

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#129: Wed 3/21/2012
Chart Update With Comments

We are updating our thoughts on the the gold and energy markets. Simply we are using the following Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) as opposed to indexes to track these markets: GLD, OIH, XLE, XLB, IYT and DBO to set how we want to be positioned. We like ETFs as they trade and have specific volume attached to them as opposed to an index. The daily charts go back to August. Comments lay out our current thinking. This is our latest update. GLD looks ready to move higher while XLE and OIH need a little more work on the downside. Both IYT and XLB remain in uptrends and DBO is going sideways here and should make a break soon.

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#128: Fri 3/16/2012
March Options Expiration

We have one trade that has March exposure as part of the spread expires in March and we will need to act today. Our spread trade in UPL saw us sell at March $25 Put for $0.75. The put is now worth $1.10. We will see if UPL can rally further and then close this part of our trade at a better price later in the day.

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#127: Mon 2/27/2012
Charts Update With Comments

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#126: Thu 2/9/2012
Update On Open Positions and DVN Trade From Earlier This Week

Current open positions include MCP June $37.50 Call, CHK April $22 Call and a GLD March $170 Call. This leaves us room for two positions. We are looking for ideas and may have an idea by Friday's close.

Last on Monday we bought a DVN March $65 call and sold a DVN February $62.50 Put. Unfortunately, in our trading instructions we listed the February $62.50 as a Call instead of a put. If you traded the stock as how it was described, then great.

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#125: Sun 2/5/2012
Charts Update & Current Positions

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#124: Fri 1/27/2012
Rumors Out On Molycorp This Morning

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#123: Thu 1/19/2012
Updated Charts On Major ETFs

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#122: Mon 1/9/2012
Weekly Chartbook Updated

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#121: Thu 12/29/2011
Charts Updated And A Few Comment s On The Charts

We are updating our thoughts on the the gold and energy markets. Simply we are using the following Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) as opposed to indexes to track these markets: GLD, OIH, XLE, XLB, IYT and DBO to set how we want to be positioned. We like ETFs as they trade and have specific volume attached to them as opposed to an index. The charts are daily and go back to the beginning of May. Comments lay out our current thinking. This is our latest update. GLD is inb a downtrend that is getting oversold. XLE, IYT and DBO have nice uptrends. OIH and XLB and completing pennant formations that look to be bullish. We will watch these for trades in early 2012.

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#120: Tue 12/20/2011
GLD Back To Its 200 Day Moving Average

The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) has fallen from its September peak of $185.85 to its current price of $156.97. The low was hit three trading days ago at $151.71. Now GLD has moved to $157.00. The 200 day moving average is ...

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#119: Thu 12/15/2011
Comments On December Expiration

We have three positions that are involved in December expiration which take place tomorrow. So we thought some comments are warranted. One of these trades requires some action on your end so read on.

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#118: Wed 12/14/2011
The Year Of Living Dangerously

This has been quite a year for the world. The year began in January with awful flooding in Queensland and quickly progressed to the first of many changes in leadership for world leaders. Tunisia saw its President abdicate and be replaced by the Prime Minister. Tunisia launched what became known as the Arab Spring. Next up massive protests and violence in Egypt led to long time President Mubarak stepping down in February and ultimately go to jail and be put on trial for looting assets from the country.

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#117: Wed 11/16/2011
Charts Updated And A Few Comments On November Expiration With GLD and RIG Positions

We are updating our thoughts on the the gold and energy markets. Simply we are using the following Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) as opposed to indexes to track these markets: GLD, OIH, XLE, XLB, IYT and DBO to set how we want to be positioned. We like ETFs as they trade and have specific volume attached to them as opposed to an index. The charts are daily and go back to the beginning of April. Comments lay out our current thinking. This is our latest update. All ETFs with the exception of DBO have moved out of buy territory on the daily Stochastic are pulling back from their recent peaks. It remains to be seen whether they will reload and move higher or the selling will become more pronounced.

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#116: Tue 11/1/2011
Charts Of Our Favorite ETFS In The Gold, Materials And Energy Space

We are updating our thoughts on the the gold and energy markets. Simply we are using the following Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) as opposed to indexes to track these markets: GLD, OIH, XLE, XLB, IYT and DBO to set how we want to be positioned. We like ETFs as they trade and have specific volume attached to them as opposed to an index. Our one open position is a put on GLD. We believe that gold will continue to drop in price as Foreign Central Banks and European banks sell gold to raise capital to fund excessive debt levels and capital calls.

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#115: Fri 10/21/2011
Options Expiration

Yesterday we adjusted our position in our put position in Streettracks Gold Shares (GLD). Today we need to cover one leg of our call spread in the Oil Service HOLDRS (OIH).The October 105 Call will be covered and we will remain long the November 110 Call.

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#114: Fri 9/16/2011
September Expiration

Today is September expiration. We have part of our OIH put spread open. Do nothing. Let the September $115 Put expire worthless which makes our trade a nice winner as we noted was likely when we closed the $120 put. Next week starts October expiration and we will look to become more active as markets have started to settle down from the recent volatility.

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#113: Wed 9/7/2011
Latest Macro Chart Update For Major ETFs in Energy & Materials Space

We are updating our thoughts on the the gold and energy markets. Simply we are using GLD, OIH, XLE, XLB, IYT and DBO to set how we want to be positioned. We like ETFs as they trade and have specific volume attached to them. The charts are daily and go back to the beginning of July. Comments lay out our current thinking. This is our latest update.

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#112: Fri 8/19/2011
August Expiration & Comments

To date we have 17 winning trades to 5 losers, including two losers that expire today. Total returns are 227.50% with average returns per trade of 10.34% per idea. Our goal is to do 50 trades a year and through 8 expirations we are at 22 trades. In theory, we should be at 32 trades. So we need to pick up our idea flow and will but have intentionally been cautious given the environment. Given the recent selling, we are presented with once in a decade lows on valuation. The last time valuations were this cheap was 2009. The S&P 500 bottomed 666 then. Despite this pullback we are at 1140 as this article is penned. The purchase of calls and calls spread should present the opportunity for excellent returns over the next few months.

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#111: Mon 8/15/2011
Weekly Macro Charts of Energy & Materials Updated With Current Comments

We are updating our thoughts on the the gold and energy markets. Simply we are using GLD, OIH, XLE, XLB, IYT and DBO to set how we want to be positioned. We like ETFs as they trade and have specific volume attached to them. The charts are daily and go back to the beginning of the year. Comments lay out our current thinking. This is our weekly update. Most instruments are in a dead cat bounce with GLD putting in a daily topping formation.

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#110: Tue 7/26/2011
Debt Deal By Thursday. Put It In Your Calendar

We will have a deal by Thursday. Why? The two camps are moving more towards commonality. Now we are down to timing to get this deal completed. This is good and bad. The good is the debt ceiling will be extended. The bad is the hard decisions will be put off to 2013 after the 2012 elections. Why? It all started yesterday afternoon when Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) held a press conference to announce the Senate's plan. The crux of this plan is to cut $2.7 billion in spending, raise the debt ceiling by the same amount and push any review of the debt ceiling into 2013. Then House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) spoke and ...

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#109: Tue 7/12/2011
Latest Thoughts On Gold and Energy.Material Markets

We are using a new format to set our thinking on the the gold and energy markets. Simply we are using GLD, OIH, XLE, XLB, IYT and DBO to set how we want to be positioned. We like ETFs as they trade and have specific volume attached to them. The charts are daily and go back to the beginning of the year. Comments lay out our current thinking. This will be updated each Tuesday night going forward.

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#108: Tue 6/7/2011
Update On The Market And Current Positions

Our universe of stocks we trade continue to be at a dangerous juncture as a tremendous run has been seen since the beginning of the year and now some selling has taken hold. Gold has recovered nicely off its lows while the energy stock and the related commodities are struggling to find a base.

The OIH is range bound now between $145 and $155 after a recent high of $167.37. The DBC has been in a $30.50 to $28.50 price range since mid May.

So what is a trader to do? Continue to do what we have been doing. Be patient and wait for our opportunitues rather than force trades. Last week we bought July calls in Transocean (RIG) then it continued to sell off. Do not worry as there is plenty of time for this trade to work.

If you want to follow more general market comments then feel free to add me to your Twitter holdings with the handle of Bullet86.

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#107: Tue 5/3/2011
Dangerous Times For Energy and Commodities

Our universe of stocks we trade are at a dangerous juncture as a tremendous run has been seen since the beginning of the year. However, stocks and indexes are beginning to look a little tired. Silver has traded off its peak and gold has sold off the past two days after a great run. Oil is off as well from its recent high as gas prices in the U.S. have moved above $4 a galllon. The OIH is range bound between $155 and $160 after a recent high of $167.37. The DBC has been in a $30.75 to $32 price range since the beginning of April. So what is a trader to do? Continue to do what we have been doing. Be patient and wait for our opportunitues rather than force trades. Last week we bought and sold Exxon Calls for a nice 37% gain in a few days.

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#106: Mon 4/25/2011
Why Subscribing to Gold and Energy Options Trader is so profitable...

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#105: Thu 3/31/2011
Update For The Quarter & Comments On Micro Stock Portfolio

As the first quarter of trading comes to a close, there are no open positions. Yesterday we closed out the APA April Call spread for a gain of 6.58%. Our goal is to have up to five positions on at a time. There were 10 trades closed out in the first quarter. These trades returned 214% or 21.4% per idea. Of these 10 trades, there were 8 winners and 2 losers. The two losers expired worthless. In options trading, there is always the risk of an option expiring worthless. Our goal is to have only 10% of all trades expire worthless. So we need to have 9 of the trades close with a value and we got 8. Therefore, we have something to work on in the next quarter.

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#104: Wed 3/16/2011
Update And Current Thinking

We have no options due for expiration in March. We sold our March $137 GLD Call position for a nice gain on March 1st. There are three open positions for April expiration- APA Call Spread, EWZ Call Spread and FCX Call Spread. We just modified the the APA Call Spread in alert #130.

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#103: Thu 2/17/2011
Options Expiration Positions

We have three option positions that are likely going to be losers as we head into tomorrow's expiration. First, we note that two of the positions are going to expire worthless tomorrow unless a major event take place on Friday and we are not going to do any repair work on these recommendations. They will simply expire worthless. The February SPY $129/$125 Put Spread will expire worthless unless a serious drop in the market occurs. The follow through to the downside that we were expecting with problems in the Middle East failed to materialize for the equity markets.The cost of this spread was $1.24.

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#102: Wed 1/26/2011
FOMC And How to Trade Today

Often the market will trade one way on the day of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) and then trade the other way the next day. This is a distinct possibility. Therefore, we will watch to see if 12,000 on the Dow Jones Industrial Average can hold and the S&P 500 can move above 1300. Though we do not trade these indexes, they help set the mood for the entire market. Watch these levels closely. GLD has just broken out above today's resistance level of ...

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#101: Mon 1/24/2011
Update on Two Open Positions and Current Thinking For This Week

The bounce has not happend yet and now we get a good test of the $130 level on GLD. In early trading, gold is at $1331.50 off almost another percent. Tuesday's action needs to be watched closely for a reversal. We are long the February $134 Call and are hopeful of rebound in short order. This position has not worked so far but we knew when we bought it that we needed time on our side. The call was bought on January 18th at $2.61 and is currently worth $0.85. Remain patient on this position. The one other position open right now is calls in ...

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#100: Tue 1/4/2011
Our Potential Trade Will Not Be Activated Today

The level we were looking for is too close to call. Another day should help clarify the siutation.

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#099: Tue 1/4/2011
The Drop In The Price Of Gold Today

The big drop in the price of gold represents a unique opportunity. Gold is back under $1400 at $1380.50. It has fallen $42.40 today. However, it has fallen to its ... As a result, we may put a trade on at 3:45 p.m. EST if this level looks to hold. We are not willing to make this bet with over an hour to trade.

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#098: Mon 12/13/2010
December Expiration and Two Positions That Are Impacted WY and KEG

We have two trades open that have expirations for December one of which also has a March Expiration. First we have a December call recommendation in Wyerhauser (WY). We bought the December $17.50 calls for $1.25. This call is trading at $.90 so we have a loss of $0.35 or 28%. Next we have bullish calendar spread in Key Energy Group. We own the March $10 call at $1.80. The option is trading at $1.90 on the bid side so we have a gain of $0.10 cents. The December $12.50 put was sold for $1.55 and is at $1.05 on the offered side. The gain is $0.50 but we are hoping for some further decay in the next few days before we close this positon. Like Wyerhauser, we will act before expiration. The spread cost us $0.25 and is now worth $0.85 for a $0.60 gain or 140% so far as the trade is not closed.

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#097: Wed 11/17/2010
Seabridge Energy CEO Interview on CNBC

A couple interesting comments from the CEO of Seabridge Energy were worth noting. The CEO of Seabridge Gold (SA) noted demand high as a hedge on political instability and currency issues. Second he noted that the ETF we trade actively GLD creates physical demand for gold itself. Seabridge bought deposits when gold at $300. As price rose

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#096: Tue 11/16/2010
Down To One Half Position For Expiration Week

We are down to one half position left for expiration week. Our GLD put spread sees the sell side of the trade still open, $126 November GLD Put. As long as GLD remains above $126 we are fine and will close this trade with a 20% loss. We HATE options that expire worthless on us and today's actions allowed us to salvage this trade. There are two open positions with December calls in ...

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#095: Fri 10/22/2010
Update On Positions

This past week we closed two positions. On Tuesday's blood bath we got long a call spread in OIH. It was closed out the next morning for a nice 15% gain. The second position closed was APC which we closed this morning for a gain of 63%.

Year to date we have closed 36 positions and have one open. Our goal is to put out 50 trades a year so with about ten weeks of trading we should be able to get close to this goal.

The average winner is up 29% with four trades that expired worthless on us and 1 small loss. The net cumulaitve return is 501.85% on closed positions in 2010. The average return for each trade is 13.94%.

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#094: Thu 9/30/2010
Today's Closes

This morning we closed two call trades. Our EOG trade was closed at 9:46 EDT via email. It was prepared to send at 9:40. CLF trade was closed at 9:55 EDT via email. Again it was prepared five minutes earlier. When we send out trades to open or close they needed to be acted on as soon as possible to get results similar to the portfolio returns. If you wait have a day, that is a lifetime in options and prices could change. That happened today.

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#093: Mon 9/27/2010
Weekend Update

USO and OIL are all moving higher week over week. UNG is weak. These are ETFs that track the price of energy prices. OIH has had a nice run. The energy and materials space is being driven higher by a weaker U.S. dollar in the past several weeks. XLB and DBC are material and commodity ETFs that are also seeing strength.

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#092: Mon 8/23/2010
Weekend Update

Currently, we have one open position in the Streettracks Gold Trust (GLD). We have a $118 and $114 September Put Spread on this name. GLD is trading at $119.97. At a point this week, we may take off the lower portion of this spread and let the $118 float by itself. There are four weeks left until expiration. GLD is moving higher with $120 looking like a top while SLV is range bound. USO, OIL and UNG are all moving lower week over week. These are ETFs that track the price of energy prices. OIH remains range bound with a slight negative bias as it just broke below $100.

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#091: Wed 8/18/2010
The Big Wild Card That The Market Is Missing

There is an old line which states, "All politics are local." We believe in a modified version of this for the markets and it is, "All politics are the wild card." Big up or down days are often the result of political decisions out of Washington or overseas. Last night we read an article that blew us away and we are very surprised the talking heads are not mentioning this risk. The Jersusalem Post notes that Israel has DAYS to strike an Iranian nuclear reactor before the Russians deliver fuel to the the reactor which is named Bushehr. The window will disappear once the fuel is loaded into the reactor the Israelis will not be able to strike at the reactor because the radiation fallout would be too great.

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#090: Fri 8/6/2010
Thoughts Heading Into The Weekend

The energy and materials space is being driven higher by a weak U.S. dollar. That should reverse next week as the dollar begins a rebound. This is due to the fact that the Japanese Yen cannot afford to move higher from here without causing pain to Japan. Look for intervention. Therefore, we are looking to play a long dollar move which means more puts in the energy and materials space. This includes negative bets on gold and GLD. Likewise, we are unimpressed by the OIH. the same is true of USO, UNG and OIL here. SLV however is interesting as it remains strong.

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#089: Mon 7/26/2010
Update For July 26th

July is now in its last week of trading and we have opened two trades and closed one so far. The first trade was a call spread on the OIH that returned 20% in one day. The second trade is a put trade in BHI that was just put on today, Monday July 26th. May we be so lucky as the first trade. Why have we been so quiet in July? The answer is one word, volatility. This is the third move of the month. First, stocks headed lower into the July 4th Weekend. Then a nice rally ensued before more selling emerged mid July. We have now had a nice rally since the mid month lows. The $64,000 question is will it continue?

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#088: Fri 7/2/2010
On To The Second Half Of 2010

So the first half of 2010 is in the rearview mirror. We are very please with our results. There have been 25 trade in 2010 that have been closed. This is an average of one idea a week. Of these trades, there have been 22 winners and 3 losers. The batting average is 88%. Our goal is 70% so we are very happy with the results. The net return for 2010 is 387.81% or 15.51% an idea.

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#087: Tue 6/22/2010
How Not To Trade Options

In Monday's Wall Street Journal, there was an "interesting" article in the options column written by Brendon Conway. The title of the article was "How To Play Puts and Calls In Less Volatile Markets". As one of the contributors to www.goldandenergyoptionstrader.com, I think I can weigh in on this article. The first premise of the article is that the VIX is returning to a more "normal" level. There is no measurement offered in the article that the VIX is falling other than that it has dropped from above 40 to the mid 20s. The process we use in GEOT is akin to ...

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#086: Thu 6/17/2010
The Worst Downgrade Of The 21st Century

Both Barclays and Bank of America/Merrill Lynch downgraded BP this morning? The stock has fallen from over $60 to $31.85. The dividend was cut several days ago. Now a $20 billion escrow account was set up to cover litigation. Are you kidding me? Where were they from $60 to $30? I heard a geat line yesterday from my pal Fred Meissner. He stated ,"Women dress for woman and analysts write for analysts." We do not follow this standard. We write for you to make money not to cover our ass.

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#085: Wed 6/2/2010
It Was The Best of Times, It Was The Worst Of Times

To quote Dickens, "It was the best of times. it was the worst of times..." The best of times in our universe relates to the gold stocks. The worst of times relate to the energy stocks. The BP oil spill is causing investors to throw out the baby with the bath water. Yesterday was a day like I have never seen in the OIH except for the previous Friday. Since last Friday the OIH has dropped from $102.75 to its current price of $92.75. A rebound is underway this morning. But it may not hold into the afternoon.

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#084: Fri 5/21/2010
Expiring May Call Spread Positions

Today is May expiration. We have two open call spreads, Chesapeake (CHK) and Mosaic (MOS). We are going to let both expire. The markets are too fast here to try and do repair on these names. However, we expect to get VERY aggressive here on the long side as stocks have sold off to stupid levels. Rebounds made be fast and sudden. As such when we recommend trades make sure to put them on as quick as possible.

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#083: Mon 5/10/2010
Update On Exxon Call Trade

Last Thursday we recommended that readers buy the Exxon (XOM) June $62.50 calls. The markets were fast moving and the offer published was $5.95 which never traded. We found orders that did trade at $2.82 and that is the price we are going to use. This level also is the price that several readers conveyed to us. We apologize for the confusion and if anyone has questions on this adjustment please feel free to call or email us.

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#082: Thu 4/22/2010
Questions From Our Readers

The following are a couple questions that came into us this past week and we wanted to respond to these questions. We will not respond to questions directly via email because we cannot give individual advise but can and do respond via our updates. When you do spread trade is it better to have a spread that has a high or low stock price? How much money do I need to trade your recommendations?

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#081: Mon 4/5/2010
Questions From Our Readers

The following are a couple questions that came into us last week and we wanted to respond to these questions. We will not respond to questions directly via email because we cannot give individual advise but can and do respond via our updates. 1.Why not to buy Bull put spread instead of Bull call spread? In my opinion put spread is more beneficial, because put options will expire themselves?

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#080: Thu 3/18/2010
Current Thinking

Through the middle of March, Gold and Energy Options Trader (GEOT) has been very active in 2010. So far, 15 positions have been closed. There have been 15 winners. These winners have gained a cumulative 273% or 18% per idea. Not too shabby and still we feel that some money has been left on the table.

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#079: Fri 2/19/2010
February Options Expiration

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#078: Mon 2/8/2010
Quick Update on Open Positions and The Euro

As we head into the second week of February trading, the state of the energy and materials market is being dictated by one variable, the U.S. dollar. As the dollar strengthens against other currencies, the sellers appear to take both gold and oil lower. Remember the best environment for gold and oil is a weak dollar. In our humble opinion, the dollar appears to have lots of resistance at the current level. This level on the UUP is $23.75. A retracement from the November low to last week's high could see a move back to $23.11 at a minimum and more likely $22.91. This should be enough to catch a nice rally in stocks in the energy and materials space.

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#077: Wed 1/27/2010
Update On Current Thoughts

The year has gotten off to a decent start with recommendations. Gains have been taken on five trades. Gains have averaged about 10% per idea. A little less than what we are shooting for but stocks are very range bound. We are happy that our batting average remains strong. There are four weeks and one day until February options expiration so this gives us some time to put on a few more positions. Currently, we have a February Call Spread in Petrobras (PBR) where we are long the $45 calls and short the $48 Calls. It is likely we lift the leg on the $48 calls and cover the position for a gain and hope the stock moves back to $45.

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#076: Thu 1/14/2010
First Update For The Year

As we enter our first options expiration of the new year, it makes sense to do a review of open positions and our current thinking. First, all but one January option expirations have been closed.

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#075: Fri 12/18/2009
Option Expiration Trades

Today is options expiration. We have two positions with expirations. Repair damage will be done on both these positions. We will do repair damage on a Frontier Oil (FTO) and Dupont (DD). Last month the repair trade on XTO worked out extremely well.

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#074: Fri 12/18/2009
New Feature Of The Website: Weekly Playbook

This weekly review new to our work. With the recent sideways action seen in the S&P 500, a big move awaits in the last month of the year. As these issues evolve each week, then audibles may need to be called with either additions or deletions to our recommendations. 1.Continue to watch the impact of bankruptcies and mergers on the market. Acquisitions are happening every week. Merger proposals this week include buyout proposal from Exxon (XOM) bidding for XTO Energy (XTO). We had skin in the game on this one and made 15% in XTO.

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#073: Tue 12/15/2009
Question About Ivanhoe Mines (IVN)

One of our readers asked what our expectations were for Ivanhoe Mines (IVN) given that the user had a cost basis of $0.44 on Ivanhoe December $12.50 calls. We recommended buying December $12.50 Calls in Ivanhoe back on September 29th. The cost of the calls was $1.90 with a break even on expiration day of $14.40. The stock is currently at $14.25 within $0.15 of breakeven.

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#072: Tue 12/8/2009
Closing Out Last Half Put Spread In GLD For Overall gain of 9.4%

As gold falls toward $1100 the December $108 Puts are worth $2.48 and the loss on the puts we are long is $1.22. Therefore we combine the early puts covered with the puts we are selling the spread is worth $1.75. The profit on the spread is $0.15 or 9.4%.

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#071: Tue 12/8/2009
Thought On Existing Postions And The Meltdown In Gold

With the crazy action in the market, we thougth it made sense to do an update. The put position in December $85 Transocean (RIG) was closed for a small gain earlier today. Other open December put positions are as follows:

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#070: Mon 11/30/2009
Excellent Piece on Natural Gas on Bloomberg

There is an excellent story on Bloomberg's website tonight about natural gas. Qatar recently delivered natural gas to the U.S. for the first time since 2008. There is more on the way and supply in the U.S. is growing by the day. Imports of natural gas will rise by 34% this year.

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#069: Fri 11/27/2009
Bond Holders Are Being $%&@ed Over

This morning futures are down levels we last saw in the fourth quarter of 2008. The S&P Futures are at 1077 from 1110 on Wednesday's close. Why? There are several moving parts and once again the media is missing the bigger story. Dubai World is attempting to reschedule its debt and delay repayment for six months because the investors are "out of money". Dubai World is backed by the government of Dubai and that is why this debt is referred to as "sovereign debt". There are other investors in Dubai World that are not sovereign including but not limited to investment banks, institutional investors and other sovereign entities like the United Arab Emirates.

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#068: Fri 11/20/2009
November Expiration

Today is options expiration. We have three positons expiring. Repair damage will be done on two of the three. A call cpread in First Solar (FSLR) will expire worthless. We will do repair damage on a calls position in Frontier Oil (FTO) and XTO Energy (XTO).

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#067: Mon 10/26/2009
Update On Positions and The Dollar Rally

We are updating our current observations and reviewing existing and new positions. In the past week, stocks have traded to the downside by several percent and only recently have the underlying commodities joined the selling. In the past week, gasoline prices are up by nineteen cents. The average price appears to be around $2.35 on October 14th ad is now $2.54, depending on tax rates. For purposes of our tracking we use rates in Texas home of the Longhorns and the center of the oil universe. Hook'em Horns!!

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#066: Wed 10/14/2009
Weekly Review

We are updating our current observations and reviewing existing positions. In the past week, stocks had a melt up as did the underlying commodities. There was no activity the past two days as travel prevented an update. Expect some new positions from us today. In the past week, gasoline prices are flat to up two cents. The average price appears to be around $2.35 depending on tax rates. For purposes of our tracking we use rates in Texas.

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#065: Mon 10/5/2009
Current Positions and Thought From A Week Ago

We are updating our current observations and reviewing existing positions. In the past week, stocks struggled as did the underlying commodities. In the past week, gasoline prices have risen by $0.10. The floor appears to be around $2.35 a bit lower in state with lower tax rates. Pay attention to the dollar here as it has broken out to the upside from recent lows and a strong dollar could be a negative for stocks and commodities.

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#064: Mon 9/28/2009
As we head into the close

A couple observations of note from today. First, do not read too much into today's action as many players are away for Yom Kippur. There is a great deal of economic data to be released this week. Pay attention as it will drive markets and especially the energy stocks. Energy stocks will move up on a recovering economy and suffer with any signs of weakness. In the past month or so, gasoline prices have dropped by almost $0.60. This is a big drop and puts more money in the hands of the consumer. This is a negative short term and a positive long term.

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#063: Mon 9/28/2009
New to Gold & Options Trader: Weekly Review

The indexes were weaker this past week. January will go down as the worst January in 113 years. February was the third worst February on record. March and April were among the strongest months on record. May put in a third positive month in a row. We now enter the seasonally tough period of June through October. June was slightly up for the month on the S&P 500 but other indexes were mixed. July was higher as was August. The media is calling for a downside volatile month in September which started to kick in the past few days. There are three trading days left in September. Releases of note this week other than the weekly oil/gas numbers include consumer confidence,Q2 GDP, personal income, construction spending, ISM, nonfarmpayrolls/unemployment and factory orders among others.

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#062: Wed 9/2/2009
Conversations With James: The Tiber Well

The media has made a big deal of the oil find by BP Inc (BP) in the Gulf of Mexico. The exploratory well that hit paydirt is known as Tiber. Total production could be 3 billion barrels. In 2020, this find could help raise production in the Gulf by 50%. James does not consider this "the mother of all finds" when the big picture is looked at closely. The entire find is ...

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#061: Thu 8/27/2009
Devon CEO Interview

Devon CEO was interviewed by crazy Cramer. Stock is rollong over here.The salient points are as follows. Devon does not hedge. When others see hedges come off Devon's competitors then Devon will take off. Today natural gas supply is too high. Production is going to drop. Then prices will rise. Devon is like a factory where the widgets are stopped. Factory is currently shut.

~more~

#060: Thu 8/27/2009
What is Going On With Natural Gas?

James and I were talking about the state of natural gas this mornng. We converse almost daily about the state of the markets. Going forward, these conversations will be relayed back to you the reader several times a week. The big question that came up is "When is natural gas going to recover?" The answer is pretty simple. Not until

~more~

#059: Thu 8/20/2009
We Are Back To Being Active

Time to start putting on some ideas here. Both the XLE and OIH look ready to take off. Meanwhile, GLD and SLV are struggling to move higher. It is interesting that UYM is doing much better than GLD and SLV. The reason we have a more positive bias is simple.

The U.S. Dollar is weak and every time it rallies it starts to fall apart. A weak dollar is good for energy and material names. A new position was just established in

~more~

#058: Fri 7/31/2009
Earnings Season Kick In

Earnings season is underway and the results of the energy stocks is underwhelming. Why? Revenues from the integrated oil companies are down 40% on average. In the S&P 500, 300 stocks have reported and 75% have beat estimtates. In the Dow Jones Industrial Average, there have been only four missed- Exxon (XOM), Chevron (CVX), Microsoft (MSFT) and Travelers (TRV). The trend is obvious as the big integrated oil companies weakness likely spreads to the drilling and exploration space.

~more~

#057: Wed 7/22/2009
Earnings Season Starts To Kick In

Calls in BJ Services (BJS) were bought in early July for a play on their up coming earnings. The stocks ran up into earnings and we locked in a gain of 42% today in spite of an earnings miss. Such a deal. Earnings season is now underway and we will try to play other earnings releases as effectively. The Weely Petroleum Data was released at 10:30 EDT and both crude oil and gasoline inventories rose a bit as demand for gasoline rose as well. Jet fuel and distillate demand dropped over the past four weeks compared to a year ago.

~more~

#056: Fri 7/17/2009
First Solar (FSLR) Bear Call Spread Closed For A Gain

We will let the July $150 call (HJQGJ)in FSLR expire worthless and we will cover the July $140 call (QHBGH) for $4.20. The spread cost us $4.50 and we will take a $0.30 gain or 6.7%

~more~

#055: Fri 7/17/2009
First Solar traded to be acted on in the last 30 minutes

Right now the July bear call spread we put on is at break even we are giving it another thirty minutes to drop further. Root for $142 frm $144.

~more~

#054: Tue 7/14/2009
Weekly Update

As we enter expiration week, several key things to point out. Crude and natural gas are rebounding off their recent lows. The dollar is weakening which helps this rebound. Gold is moving up and a move to $950 looks to be in the cards. Last week we created a Micro Cap stock portfolio. There is one recommendation currently, Star Bulk Carriers (SBLK). Expect to see one to two ideas a week until we get our five stock portfolio funded. Stops will be employed on all positions.

~more~

#053: Thu 7/9/2009
Oil breaches $60

This morning oil breaks $60. The weekly natural gas numbers just came out and the build rose by 75 bcf instead of 85 bcf. The price of natural gas rose to $3.44 from $3.41 off the initial numbers. This morning the OIH is hanging above the $90.30 50% retracement level discussed yesterday. If this sticks we may nibble on OIH calls or a call spread. We are already participating with August $12.50 Calls in BJS. Other notables this morning. SII was upgraded at RBC but ...

~more~

#052: Wed 7/8/2009
Wild Times In Energy & Why We Need to Let The Dust Settle A Bit

The price of crude has now dropped $10 from its peak in about a week's time. Natural gas has fallen to the mid $3 range. Yesterday, the CTFC announced that the ETF that tracks natural gas UNG cannnot issue more shares. Today we get a read on drillers as Morgan Stanley holds their Energy Deepwater Conference and the action of Anadarko (APC) will be tellling as to future direction. Earnings season kick off afte the close with Alcoa (AA). Usually we avoid playing earnings on

~more~

#051: Mon 7/6/2009
Review of The Past Week

The major indexes were lower this past week. January will go down as the worst January in 113 years. February was the third worst February on record. March and April were among the strongest months on record. May put in a third positive month in a row. We now enter the seasonally tough period of June through October. June was slightly up for the month but other indexes were mixed. Releases of note this week other than the weekly oil/gas numbers include consumer credit and Michigan sentiment numbers among others. The net is very few economic numbers will influence stock prices. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is now in a range of 8,5000 to 8,000. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 is now between 900 to 850. The Oil Service HOLDRS (OIH) are in a range of $95 to $90. $100 could not hold last week.

~more~

#050: Thu 7/2/2009
A Great Interview With Gulf Oil Executive This Morning

CNBC interviewed an executive from Gulf Oil. It was an interesting interview. He made several key points. Gas prices should begin to drop. They are not sustainable at this level. The consumer is tapped as they are buying less gallons per visit. The magic number is $3.00. The extra revenues drop for gas stations at $3.00. No cup of coffee. However, the Chinese are the wild card as now 5% of consumption and the weak dollar could move crude beyond where it should go.

~more~

#049: Wed 7/1/2009
New Of Note This Morning Affecting Our Universe

Several news items of note this morning worth passing along. First, Federal Reserve San Francisco President Janet Yellen calls for a slow recovery to start at the end of 2009. Any recovery helps the price of energy move higher as demand rises with activity and slows with no activity. China steel makers have failed to reach an agreement with iron ore producers. China wants a 40% cut and Japan and Korea already negotiated separates cuts around 30%. With stimulus plans kicking in worldwide, China needs to get on board sooner than later. There will be pricing pressure on iron ore supply which menas steel demand to rise and why we own calls in U.S. Steeel (X).

~more~

#048: Fri 6/19/2009
June Expiration and Repair Damage on TLT and HOC

We will do repair damage on two June option trades. Back on May 19th, we bought the June $25 Calls (HOCFE) in Holly Corp for $1.50. The stock has fallen to $19.05 and this is CRAZY cheap. The June $25 call will expire worthless and as such we will buy the stock and have a cost basis of $20.55.($19.05 + $1.50 =$20.55) Second, we established a call spread in the Lehman 20 Year iSHare (TLT) for a cost of $1.30. The spread will ...

~more~

#047: Fri 5/15/2009
Repair Control on Southern COmpany (CO)

Back on February 18th, we bought the May 30 Calls (SOEF) in Southern Company for $2.05. We will buy the shares with a entry price of $28.10. We believe that this could move back to the mid $30 very easily. With the loss of the option our cost basis is $30.10.

~more~

#046: Wed 5/13/2009
What is going on in the energy and materials space this morning?

In the past week, the price of crude oil and natural gas as well as gold have been moving higher. We own the ETF that tracks natural gas UNG at a price of $15.90 and this morning it sits at $17.46 up $1.56 or 9.80%. Our friends at he Madison Letter see UNG getting extended but not quite a sell. Watch for a potential exit if a sell kicks into gear. Otherwise we will remain long UNG.

~more~

#045: Thu 5/7/2009
New natural gas numbers and other comments

Natural Gas numbers were just released. The inventory build was bigger than expected and with the recent rally traders are taking the price of natural gas lower as well as natural gas stocks. Cheseapeake was stronger in early trading but is giving up its gains. Several energy names reported numbers and beat estimates since yesterdays close. They include ...

~more~

#044: Fri 4/17/2009
APril Expiration Summary and Repair Damage on UNG

We have not had to do repair damage in a while but occassionally this does happen. Therefore, with expiration today we will take the following steps. Open positions include UNG Call, GLD Call, OIH Put Spread and SPY Put Spread. We will do repair on UNG . OIH, GLD and SPY will expire worthless.

~more~

#043: Mon 4/6/2009
Weekly Review

On the economic front Wholesale Inventories and Import Prices are due out this week along with the Weekly Energy numbers. This week we will hold another weekly webinar. Space is limited. Reserve your Webinar seat now at: https://www2.gotomeeting.com/register/781626250 The Dow Jones Industrial Average is now in a range of 8,000 to 7,500. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 is now between 850 to 800. Choppiness scores on the major indexes remain between the high 40s to mid 50s. Ths downside appears to be played out for the time being. The OIH is now range bound between $75 and $80. Meanwhile Gold is between $850 and $900. THe XLE is between $45 and $40.

~more~

#042: Thu 4/2/2009
Thanks to those who joined our first conference call

Thanks to those who joined our first conference call. It lasted about 20 minutes and we reviewed existing positions in SO, GLD, UNG and OIH as well as giving a little look behind the process. The first call only provided web questions. Next week we will add full audio to our call.

~more~

#041: Mon 3/30/2009
Webinar Call on Wednesday, April 1 at 5:30 EDT To Review Current Ideas and Our Process

We will host our first Webinar Call on Wednesday, April 1 at 5:30 EDT to review current positions and a quick review of our process for any new readers. If you are not available, we will repeat this call each Wednesday for the next few weeks. Click through to find the invite and sign up for the call and connect your computer to ours and listen as we review via your telephone or cell phone.

~more~

#040: Sun 3/29/2009
Update to State of The Markets

The market was higher this past week. It was the fourth positive week of the year. In 2008, the months of January, February, March, June, July, September, October and November produced negative returns for the S&P 500 with April,May,August and December turned into a positive months. Below is a summary of open and closed positions. Markets put in really negative months in October and November. The first month of 2009 is now on the books and will go down as the worst January in 113 years. February was the third worst February on record. March will be one of the strongest months on record.

~more~

#039: Sun 2/22/2009
Gold to stick above $1000?

The dollar is trading at 93.34 from 92.22 against the yen, the Euro is at .78 from .79 while the pound is at .69 from .70. The CRB index finished at 202.47 from 202.25. Brent Crude Oil Futures finished at $41.89 from $40.49. Gold moved to $999.50 from $967.77.

~more~

#038: Mon 1/5/2009
State of The Energy & Materials Market As We Enter 2009

As we begin trading in 2009, the energy and materials markets are living throuogh their own bear market not too dissimilar from the equity markets. So how are we going to tackle 2009? First the most important variable on the price of energy and materials will be the economic activity in the U.S. and worldwide. It is important to remember that the U.S. is the largest customer of most countries. When the U.S. catches a cold, the rest of the world catches the flu. Unfortunately, the U.S. has a flu instead of a cold and as such the world could have a case of pneumonia. Our favorite trades will remain spread trades but we may continue to deploy either a call or put trade as the opportunity arises.

~more~

#037: Tue 12/16/2008
As the dollar goes, so goes the price of energy and commodity ETFs!

The U.S. Dollar has been pounded since December 5th igniting a big rally in stocks in the energy and commodity space. Will it continue post the FOMC rate cut? We do not know but will watch the move in the UUP and UDN. For the fourth day in a row, the Power Shares Dollar Bullish ETF (UUP) is a potential buy in our sister publication www.the madisonletter.com.

~more~

#036: Tue 12/16/2008
Update on December Expirations and Recommendations

There are several open positons that we will have done repair damage on. Many of these have nice gains and we will roll into January positions given the enormous runs seen in the past week in energy and commodity names.

~more~

#035: Mon 12/1/2008
Weekly Review: Is the dollar ready to roll over soon?

The market remains in a downtrend that has not been able to right itself since October 2007 when the S&P 500 peaked at 1576.09. So far we have had seventeen bear market rallies since December 2007. These rallies are sharp, sudden and short lived. The long term downtrend remains in tact. The S&P 500 is now down more than 40% since 2007. Macro themes related to the dollar are important in today's environment. If the dollar falls, then the commodity trade will begin to outperform due to the weakness of the dollar. The Up Dollar ETF (UUP) weakened this past week.

~more~

#034: Fri 11/21/2008
Update & Changes to Positions as Options Expiration Approaches

There are several changes to existing positions as November expiration is upon the markets.

~more~

#033: Tue 11/4/2008
Implied Volatilties Are Impacting Price Moves in Options aka Why We Like Spreads

Price moves in stock options are being influenced by high implied volatilities that are beginning to drop. This means it is increasingly hard to make money being long a call. Those that make markets in options are being pigs or just cautious. It is better to play a spread. Buy in the money call options and sell out of the money call options if we are playing from the long side like we did with ...

~more~

#032: Mon 11/3/2008
Weekly Update

Last week was a great one for many energy stocks. On Monday, the stocks saw profit taking but closed off their lows. In spite of today's move, we remain a fan of the energy names in the short term. The overall market remains in a downtrend that has not been able to right itself since October 2007 when the S&P 500 peaked at 1576.09. So far we have had sixteen bear market rallies since December 2007. These rallies are sharp, sudden and short lived. The long term downtrend remains in tact.

On the economic front Factory Orders, Q3 Productivity, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemplyment are due out this week. Construction spending came out today and was weak. Also, car sales were horrible as in some cases were off 50%.

~more~

#031: Tue 10/28/2008
What is happening to the market?

As Will Rodgers said, sometimes it is the return of your capital rather than the return on your capital that matters. Trading ideas have slowed because the markets are not orderly. Up 900 points one day down 700 the next are not predictable. What it is cannot be printed on these pages. Today's move was a great example of the chaos. The market remained range bound until 2:00 p.m. when stocks were boosted in our opinion, as well as others we speak with, so that assets could be unwound at higher prices. Remember the greateest moves come in bear markets not bull markets. So what does this mean for energy and material stocks? First, one needs to understand why these stocks have dropped so much. It is really simple. When the economy slows, there is less demand for energy. Even old dogs like T. Boone Pickens forgot this fact. He has lost billions as he remained long energy stocks until recently.

~more~

#030: Fri 10/17/2008
Update on Open Positions into Expiration

There are several open positons that we will continue to do repair damage on. They are as follows:

~more~

#029: Wed 10/8/2008
What lies ahead ...

The markets are angry and this creates challenges as well as opportunities. Last week in www.goldandoptionstrader.com hefty profits were taken in puts on SPY (81%) and calls on GLD (76%). We remain with a crash hedge as the GLD March 84 Calls remain open. This is up some 92%. With the close of SPY, the goal was to reestablish a position on a break of $111.13. (alert written on 10/2/08). We missed this break.

Friday afternoon we left for a long weekend with the Dow Jones Industrial up 150 points but by the close of trading the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost -150 points. We were a bit shocked but not surprised by this outcome.

The action on Monday saw a drop of over 700 points before finishing down some -350 points on the Dow Jones Industrial Average. It appeared the low could be at hand. Today’s action brought the Dow Jones Industrial Average under 9600 and a drop of -508 points. Ugly ...

~more~

#028: Fri 9/19/2008
Update on GLD Calls

What the heck is going on? The markets are in turmoil. Up 400 points one day and then down 500 points another da y. We warned you of the current problems on 8/25/08. They are not going away even with Thursday’s rebound and Friday’s move higher. An alert was issued on 8/25/08 that provided a strategy to hedge the impending risks that are now playing out in front of your very eyes.

Our alert noted, “The smart hedge is to buy physical gold as James DiGeorgia constantly preaches. We at The Gold and Energy Options Trader like to use leverage and use options. In our view, a smart trade is to buy calls on the Gold Shares SPDR (GLD). GLD mirrors the movement in the price of gold. As gold rises, so too does the price of the GLD. If the price of gold falls, then so to does the GLD. GLD currently trades at $80.87.”

~more~

#027: Fri 9/12/2008
Hurricane Alert

Hurricane Ike is going to have an impact on the refiners and drilling companies make no doubt about it. Companies have fled their rigs in the Gulf of Mexico ahead of the hurricane making land early Saturday. Production was just getting back up to speed after Gustav and now comes Ike. This should help prices of crude and natural gas rise.

~more~

#026: Wed 9/10/2008
Weekly Update: Have the energy markets sold off enough to start a rally?

After returning from vacation the end of last week, we have waited to weigh in on the recent action in the energy and materials markets until the various marketes reached a point from which the volatility would begin to slow. There are now multiple signs that such a nexus has been reached. What are these datapoints and how will we position ourselves for the rest of the month? First, the recent move in the dollar should be over. As the dollar rose, it took the air out of commodiities. Sister publication www.themadisonletter.com just picked up a buy on the Dollar Bear ETF (UDN) and it is working. The rising dollar hurt energy and material names and now the reverse will pan out

~more~

#025: Tue 8/26/2008
Clarification on yesterday's trade

~more~

#024: Sun 8/17/2008
Energy and material prices continue to slump. Is the end near?

The Monday Morning Review is where we analyze the state of stocks, bonds, currencies and energy/materials markets on a week over week basis. The goal of our weekly review is to keep you our reader aware of the various markets and then during the week we will offer comment on changes to existing themes and monitor our individual positions. We now have four bullish call positions against bearish put positions. The overall market was mixed this last week but materials and energy markets continue to get pounded. The market remains in a downtrend that has not been able to right itself since October when the S&P 500 peaked at 1576.09. So far we have had ...

~more~

#023: Wed 7/23/2008
Update on USO put spread

Yesterday we established the August put spread in USO (buy the August 103 put and sell the August 99 put) as we believed that crude is in a free fall to the $120/$115 level which could take USO to $98. There was great conviction for this trade. It is now up $0.30 on $1.90 or 16%. The stock has fallen from the $103 level down to $100, close to the second leg of the spread at 99. However, it should be up more but those that make markets in the USO have increased premiums at a rate that is not fair for the out of the money puts which in our case was the 99 puts. We bought the 103 puts and sold 99 puts. The expiration month was August. Expect a break under $100 tomorrow and we will close this trade.

~more~

#022: Tue 7/22/2008
Hurricane Dolly starting to weaken

It looks like Hurrican Dolly is going to lose its strength and land somewhere along nothern Mexico or the southern Texas Gulf coast. Currently, the center of the storm is 265 miles southeast of Brownsville, Texas. Top winds have been clocked at 65 miles per hour and the storm is moving at 13 miles per hour.

If the storm were to change direction and move more towards Texas and Louisiana then the storm could damage rigs in the Gulf of Mexico. For the time being it looks like the energy companies have dodged a bullet. Moreover, this storm will not reverse the price drop in crude which is good for stocks.

~more~

#021: Thu 7/17/2008
What is going on in the energy and materials patch?

In the past week, the price of crude has fallen from the the 140s to a close of $131.70. In addition, gold has fallen to $959.60. Meanwhile stocks fell to 1201 on the S&P 500 by Tuesday late morning before mounting a viscious rally to close today at 1257.97. Stocks in general have responded favorably to the drop in the price of crude oil.

In the following weeks, the price of gasoline should begin to drop as well. Right now energy stocks are free falling with the exception of refiners which are benefiting from the drop in the crack spread that had hurt these stocks for months. We are on this theme as we own the August 22.50 calls in Tesoro (TSO).

This past week we have taken advantage of the drop exploration and production stocks like Cabot Energy (COG) as we sold the July 60 calls for a tidey profit. Currently, we are assessing whether more downside lies ahead or a

~more~

#020: Tue 7/15/2008
Taking profits, watching the action and getting ready to pounce

Last week we took some nice profits on calls in Anadarko Petroleum as well as a call spread in Mosaic (MOS). The key to successsful trading is staying out of the weeds when volatility is extreme. Today we had a triple threat from speeches or testimony from Bernanke, Paulson and Bush.

On the economic front reports are due for PPI, CPI, Retail Sales, Industrial Production and June Housing Starts. Earnings season continues with reporting this week include Genentech(DNA), Intel (INTC) and Google (GOOG) among others. Energy and material stocks will not report for a few weeks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is now in a range of 10,500-11,000 down from 11,000- 11,500. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 is now between 1200-1250 down from 1250-1300 while the Nasdaq Composite is in a range from 2300-2200 down from 2400-2300.

~more~

#019: Tue 6/24/2008
Weekly Update

The market remains in a downtrend that has not been able to right itself since October when the S&P 500 peaked at 1576.09. So far we have had twelve bear market rallies since December. These rallies are sharp, sudden and short lived. The long term downtrend remains in tact. However, energy stocks remain in an uber bull market while material stocks have cooled off a bit undergoing a consolidation.

On the economic front June Consumer Confidence, May Durables Goods, May New Home Sales, Q1 GDP, May Existing Home Sales, May Personal Income and June Michigan Sentiment are due out this week. The Consumer Confidence number was the lowest since 1992. Earnings season is on the wane as conferences takes front and center.

~more~

#018: Wed 6/18/2008
Quick Update

We will pick up our trading as market volatility increases. ~more~

#017: Tue 5/6/2008
Why have we been quiet the past week?

Read on and find out what is causing us to stay on the sidelines so far this week. ~more~

#016: Sun 5/4/2008
Weekly Macro Update

Macro themes related to the dollar are important in today's environment. If the dollar rallies, then the commodity trade will be toast as much of the ascent in price has been due to the weakness of the dollar. Oil has risen in the past week while gold fell ~more~

#015: Mon 4/21/2008
Weekly Update

Each week we update the big macro trends within our space and review open and recently closed positions. ~more~

#014: Sun 4/13/2008
Weekly Update

We remain with two bullish positions up from one at the end of last week. Each week we review the major trend within the energy, commodities and metals market. This week we note... ~more~

#013: Mon 4/7/2008
Weekly Update

Last week we took profits on bullish call spreads in Ensco (ESV) and Valero (VLO) for gains of 25% and 46%. We remain with a long position in ~more~

#012: Mon 3/31/2008
Weekly Update

The dollar is trading at 99.24 from 99.88 against the yen, the Euro moves from .65 to .63 while the pound remains at .50. The CRB index finished the week at $394.54 up from $381.74. Brent Crude Oil Futures rose to $103.77 from $99.20. Gold moves to .... ~more~

#011: Mon 3/17/2008
Weekly Update

The dollar continues to weaken. Macro themes related to the dollar are important in today's environment. If so, then the commodity trade will be toast as much of the ascent in price has been due to the weakness of the dollar. Oil has rebounded nicely while gold remains a champion. ~more~

#010: Tue 3/4/2008
Addition to the website

Each day we will now alert you to the stocks with the most unusual options volume compared to their option volume twenty day average and where price in most cases has not moved excessively. This will help us to garner more ideas and hopefully be of use to you our reader. This is brought to you courtesy of www.orats.com. ~more~

#009: Sun 3/2/2008
Weekly Update

#008: Sun 2/17/2008
Weekly Update

Each week going forward we will summarize changes to the currency, commodity and U.S. Treasury market as they impace the movement of the energy and commodity markets.The dollar is trading at ~more~

#007: Mon 2/11/2008
Quick update on open position

One of our open ideas saw a HUGE insider purchase worth noting. ~more~

#006: Sun 1/6/2008
Thoughts on the move to $100 oil and $850 gold

Recently we wrote an article which we wanted to share with you. It is more macro in nature but highlights themes for the first quarter. $100 crude oil and gold over $850? Now the talk begins of $150 oil and $1000 gold! This is rather crazy and we are licking our chops for an opportunity to go short both of these commodities as well as many of the underlying companies in the energy and materials sector but will wait until the top is very evident. Why? ~more~

#005: Wed 1/2/2008

Welcome to 2008! We have closed 14 trades with 11 winners and 3 losers. The CRB index has moved from $348.60 to $366.86 since our last update. Brent Crude Oil Futures have moved from $91.69 to $97.84. Gold has moved from $798 to $860.00. The dollar is trading at 109.75 from 113.28 against the yen while .68 from .69 against the Euro and .51 from .49 against the pound. ~more~

#004: Mon 12/17/2007
Update on Positions

As we complete trading for December, there are four open positions. ~more~

#003: Fri 11/16/2007

~more~

#002: Thu 11/8/2007
Update on Positions

We have closed 9 trades with 7 winners and 2 losers. ~more~

#001: Mon 10/15/2007
Update on Positions

We have open positions that are bearish on SPY, PGN and XOM with a bullish position on EXP. Earnings are due next week for EXP and we may take profits in front of this release on Monday, October 22. ~more~

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